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[PaintTinJr]

So, purely market manipulation on the fake news then.

My observation as a Brit is that I would expect anything official from the CMA to be reported by British news outlets first or with parity, yet apparently news agencies in the US have CMA news before the BBC, Sky News, and Channel 4, which I realised yesterday and today is pure nonsense, and is just a PR extension for Microsoft if none of those British outlets have the story too.

Currently in the UK, we only have what the CMA have reported, meaning the deal is still blocked and nothing Microsoft are offering has changed the deal.

I believe HeisenbergFX4 take the deal is closing, but it is closing on the CMA's terms currently, unless the CMA or British outlets report otherwise.

 

[Topher]

Just my 2 cents and this is 100% pure speculation the CMA is not blocking this, something will get figured out by Monday

That would seem to be exceedingly quick. If so then I'll have to agree with others who have "speculated" that the deal is already done. CMA is going to get a lot of sideway looks if that happens.

 

[DeepEnigma]

That would seem to be exceedingly quick. If so then I'll have to agree with others who have "speculated" that the deal is already done. CMA is going to get a lot of sideway looks if that happens.

 

[Topher]

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Where is HeisenbergFX4 ?

Spill the beans if you know. What are you hearing? Does MS have a handshake deal in place with CMA, or is this a final push to see if they can find a way forward?

Edit - never mind - just saw above.

I honestly don't know anything and have not spoken today to anyone that would

I am heading out of town a lot the next few months so likely my gaming time with some folks will be next to zero as I try to get a lot of my summer stuff done between now and Starfield launch

And truthfully I never ask these guys pointed questions as I just like to listen in so I wont shoot them a text asking about this as answers like that will not be put down in a text anyhow

That would seem to be exceedingly quick. If so then I'll have to agree with others who have "speculated" that the deal is already done. CMA is going to get a lot of sideway looks if that happens.

I think it closes before the 18th deadline regardless and again thats just the sense I am getting

 

[Topher]

thats just the sense I am getting

HeisenbergFX4 's other hobby...

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

That would seem to be exceedingly quick. If so then I'll have to agree with others who have "speculated" that the deal is already done. CMA is going to get a lot of sideway looks if that happens.

 

[PaintTinJr]

That would seem to be exceedingly quick. If so then I'll have to agree with others who have "speculated" that the deal is already done. CMA is going to get a lot of sideway looks if that happens.

The deal is done with Activision being divested as the CMA already demanded, unless a Hail Mary solution is offered to satisfy the CMA SLC, which is no small task. Basically Microsoft are going to capitulate and cut of their CoD piece - pun intended - rather than lose $3b

 

[Topher]

The deal is done with Activision being divested as the CMA already demanded, unless a Hail Mary solution is offered to satisfy the CMA SLC, which is no small task. Basically Microsoft are going to capitulate and cut of their CoD piece - pun intended - rather than lose $3b

 

[Solidus_T]

The deal is done with Activision being divested as the CMA already demanded, unless a Hail Mary solution is offered to satisfy the CMA SLC, which is no small task. Basically Microsoft are going to capitulate and cut of their CoD piece - pun intended - rather than lose $3b

While this is what the CMA will demand in terms of a remedy, I believe that makes it a deal breaker for Microsoft. If this is only what they accept, it may still end up being blocked and ABK will be $3b richer.

 

[Dick Jones]

The deal is done with Activision being divested as the CMA already demanded, unless a Hail Mary solution is offered to satisfy the CMA SLC, which is no small task. Basically Microsoft are going to capitulate and cut of their CoD piece - pun intended - rather than lose $3b

Divest Crash and Spyro.

 

[PaintTinJr]

In the UK our news is largely still news.

The CMA tweet is the news - until we hear otherwise. That's the state of the deal, regardless of people's friends chest pounding bravado, which means the deal closing is at the CMA's demands, not Microsoft's.

 

[Negotiator101]

I honestly don't know anything and have not spoken today to anyone that would

I am heading out of town a lot the next few months so likely my gaming time with some folks will be next to zero as I try to get a lot of my summer stuff done between now and Starfield launch

And truthfully I never ask these guys pointed questions as I just like to listen in so I wont shoot them a text asking about this as answers like that will not be put down in a text anyhow


I think it closes before the 18th deadline regardless and again thats just the sense I am getting

If you're correct then the CMA and Microsoft would have already worked out a deal before the FTC case was rejected, that would explain the CMA response after the verdict that negotiations had begun. Guess we'll see come Monday.

 

[Topher]

In the UK our news is largely still news.

The CMA tweet is the news - until we hear otherwise. That's the state of the deal, regardless of people's friends chest pounding bravado, which means the deal closing is at the CMA's demands, not Microsoft's.

Eh......that's still just more speculation though. I just cannot see MS buying ABK without A.

 

[NickFire]

Basically Microsoft are going to capitulate and cut of their CoD piece - pun intended - rather than lose $3b

As funny as that would be it ain't gonna happen.

Imagine someone had a deal to buy a 50 million dollar boat. If they can't get a boat license they pay like 2 million in cancellation fees. Turns out they can't get the license. Do you think they'd say alright fine: give me the throw rings, bumper buoys, and fishing polls; you keep the boat; and I still pay 50 million.

Cause that's basically the same fact pattern.

 

[thebigmanjosh]

How would people feel if MS absorbed King, Blizzard, and Activision IPs aside from COD while Activision is left mostly intact as a COD factory? Then use the money saved to sign a long-term marketing agreement/partnership for COD on GP?

 

[ShadowkillXNA]

As said the info about Microsoft might pull all first parties titles out of the UK if the CMA is not overturned, comes from many sources i have heard on youtube, Here is one that mentions it, just today, There are others and not just him.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

How would people feel if MS absorbed King, Blizzard, and Activision IPs aside from COD while Activision is left mostly intact as a COD factory? Then use the money saved to sign a long-term marketing agreement/partnership for COD on GP?

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

How would people feel if MS absorbed King, Blizzard, and Activision IPs aside from COD while Activision is left mostly intact as a COD factory? Then use the money saved to sign a long-term marketing agreement/partnership for COD on GP?

 

[IFireflyl]

It's jut one example I can think of, who knows what they really offered in their 'small' divestiture.. Besides, CMA used the 'reducing choice and innovation' remark when using Cloud as the reason they denied the merger in UK, if you remove cloud from the equation, it takes away their concern

Reducing choice by removing cloud still results in their concern being valid. Without the acquisition, Activision can put games on cloud. With the acquisition, Activision would not be able to put games on cloud. That's a reduction of choice. This is why I am saying that your example still wouldn't work. Either way, consumers have more choice without the acquisition because Activision can put their games on whatever platform they chose.

 

[GigaBowser]

Betting odds are 80% that deal goes through my friends my industry perdictions never fails

 

[GHG]

How would people feel if MS absorbed King, Blizzard, and Activision IPs aside from COD while Activision is left mostly intact as a COD factory? Then use the money saved to sign a long-term marketing agreement/partnership for COD on GP?

I'd be very happy that Microsoft managed to get King, since that's what they really want from all of this. The titles in King's portfolio would make an excellent addition to gamepass and would play excellently on xCloud.

 

[NickFire]

Betting odds are 80% that deal goes through my friends my industry perdictions never fails

Something tells me the betting odds over the last few months resemble my fantasy football team(s) winning percentages between Thursdays and late Monday evenings every week in the fall. Up, down, up, down, up, down, and if anyone is playing Monday night its not over until the last whistle. Those damn garbage time stats mess up everything.

 

[Ogbert]

Reducing choice by removing cloud still results in their concern being valid. Without the acquisition, Activision can put games on cloud. With the acquisition, Activision would not be able to put games on cloud. That's a reduction of choice. This is why I am saying that your example still wouldn't work. Either way, consumers have more choice without the acquisition because Activision can put their games on whatever platform they chose.

I see your point; that withholding Activision titles from any cloud platform hinders choice. If we can't have it, you can't have it, so to speak.

I don't think that would necessarily be the case. MS, if they agreed to this sort of split, would simply be acting as a publisher for the purposes of cloud gaming and would presumably be allowed to be more aggressive with the pricing structure for the licensing on other cloud platforms. So, to that end, it might make things more expensive. Whether that burden is taken on by the cloud providers or the consumers would remain to be seen, but probably the latter.

 

[RGB'D]

The deal is done with Activision being divested as the CMA already demanded, unless a Hail Mary solution is offered to satisfy the CMA SLC, which is no small task. Basically Microsoft are going to capitulate and cut of their CoD piece - pun intended - rather than lose $3b

Nope. MS will close and pay UK fines over doing this.

 

[Bernardougf]

I'd be very happy that Microsoft managed to get King, since that's what they really want from all of this. The titles in King's portfolio would make an excellent addition to gamepass and would play excellently on xCloud.

#thrustPhil

 

[Pelta88]

Nope. MS will close and pay UK fines over doing this.

You must not understand the fine structure or the yearly costs involved with such a fine. Or the fact that sometime in the not too distant future Microsoft might want to purchase some other entity...

But then again, we've moved from "MS will just close over the uk once the FTC injunction is rejected." To this.

 

[adamsapple]

Reducing choice by removing cloud still results in their concern being valid. Without the acquisition, Activision can put games on cloud. With the acquisition, Activision would not be able to put games on cloud. That's a reduction of choice. This is why I am saying that your example still wouldn't work. Either way, consumers have more choice without the acquisition because Activision can put their games on whatever platform they chose.

In general, yes I agree with you, but CMA's concern was specifically about MS's dominance in the market and that causing a reduction in player choice because they won't have any other option besides Xcloud (yes, I know that sounds weird when you write it like that too, but what can we do).

If we remove the element of MS's 'dominance in cloud' in the UK market, that takes out the major concern CMA has in the UK market.

Betting odds are 80% that deal goes through my friends my industry perdictions never fails

I bet (heh) that the odds have increased since the FTC announcement and CMA's willingness to re-do.

 

[IntentionalPun]

In general, yes I agree with you, but CMA's concern was specifically about MS's dominance in the market and that causing a reduction in player choice because they won't have any other option besides Xcloud (yes, I know that sounds weird when you write it like that too, but what can we do).

If we remove the element of MS's 'dominance in cloud' in the UK market, that takes out the major concern CMA has in the UK market.

And their argument is so bad because why wouldn't MS dominate the console space w/ the same content slate?

I want this merger to fail but regulators' arguments are not very good lol

 

[NickFire]

And their argument is so bad because why wouldn't MS dominate the console space w/ the same content slate?

I want this merger to fail but regulators' arguments are not very good lol

Less existing competition in cloud than console would be the retort. Which is true, even if I think the same slate could lead to same result in both.

 

[mayham2199]

But then again, we've moved from "MS will just close over the uk once the FTC injunction is rejected." To this.

Exactly. I have no clue what will happen. I see no point in MS reaching back out to CMA knowing they can't submit anymore remedies which the CMA just emphasized again. So why do that if you are just going to close over the CMA?

Maybe they did it just so when they do close over the CMA they can say that they tried to work with the CMA but they were unreasonable. That's the only thing that makes sense to me.

 

[LoveCake]

Such bad news if this goes through

 

[StealthGoblin]

Exactly. I have no clue what will happen. I see no point in MS reaching back out to CMA knowing they can't submit anymore remedies which the CMA just emphasized again. So why do that if you are just going to close over the CMA?

Maybe they did it just so when they do close over the CMA they can say that they tried to work with the CMA but they were unreasonable. That's the only thing that makes sense to me.

They can't be classed as unreasonable. The legal process has taken place. Judgement made.

The only three options are to:

a) accept the decision and abandon the merger

b) appeal

c) restructure and undergo a totally new investigation

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Such bad news if this goes through

Join the bet, if the cma blocks you get to eat the demented british delicacy called the wigan slappy and pretend it's the best thing you've eaten in your life.

 

[Pelta88]

Exactly. I have no clue what will happen. I see no point in MS reaching back out to CMA knowing they can't submit anymore remedies which the CMA just emphasized again. So why do that if you are just going to close over the CMA?

Maybe they did it just so when they do close over the CMA they can say that they tried to work with the CMA but they were unreasonable. That's the only thing that makes sense to me.

The idea that Activision/Microsoft could just close over the UK to me, is pure fantasy. I mean, Microsoft might want to. But Activision's second largest market outside of the US is the UK. To give up that level of profit just doesn't make business sense.

Neither does having to explain to the market why your quarterly profit is being hammered, by the fines the CMA has imposed. Perhaps people think the CMA's fines are a one time fee?

 

[Clintizzle]

Microsoft: Hey CMA, what if we create a new Borris Johnson DLC for the next CoD?

CMA:

 

[PaintTinJr]

Eh......that's still just more speculation though. I just cannot see MS buying ABK without A.

It isn't speculation when they intentionally said the deal is still blocked in the tweet.

I do believe HeisenbergFX4 has had confirmation the deal is closing, and that it is as good as fact.

From there the options are very limited, and the facts as they stand for the deal to close and still be officially blocked, is that Microsoft need to divest Activision to unblock it.

It sounds stupid and illogical to buy ATVI without A, but there is a cliff edge approaching and everyone that backed the deal financially still wins from that decision, even our banned twitter nutters that invested, and Kotick gets his pay out too. The only losers in that situation are those with thought experiments to spend PlayStation out the market and warriors wanting CoD leveraged.

Microsoft's win effectively saves them wasting $3b, gets them assets worth more than their offer and shows them exactly where the acquisition line is for their next potential targets, and allows them to say the M&A was a success and the cash they put up didn't depreciate in those 1.5years.

 

[mayham2199]

They can't be classed as unreasonable. The legal process has taken place. Judgement made.

The only three options are to:

a) accept the decision and abandon the merger

b) appeal

c) restructure and undergo a totally new investigation

I don't mean unreasonable as in legally. I mean MS will close and then start a PR campaign saying they are unreasonable and use that as an excuse for closing the deal instead of going through the process. Basically just an excuse to keep their good guy image as much as possible.

 

[Vognerful]

 

[Topher]

It isn't speculation when they intentionally said the deal is still blocked in the tweet.

I do believe HeisenbergFX4 has had confirmation the deal is closing, and that it is as good as fact.

From there the options are very limited, and the facts as they stand for the deal to close and still be officially blocked, is that Microsoft need to divest Activision to unblock it.

It sounds stupid and illogical to buy ATVI without A, but there is a cliff edge approaching and everyone that backed the deal financially still wins from that decision, even our banned twitter nutters that invested, and Kotick gets his pay out too. The only losers in that situation are those with thought experiments to spend PlayStation out the market and warriors wanting CoD leveraged.

Microsoft's win effectively saves them wasting $3b, gets them assets worth more than their offer and shows them exactly where the acquisition line is for their next potential targets, and allows them to say the M&A was a success and the cash they put up didn't depreciate in those 1.5years.

I get your reasoning, but MS divesting Activision is absolutely speculation. But if you want to believe that then that is fine too. I'll acknowledge it if you turn out to be correct.

 

[adamsapple]

And their argument is so bad because why wouldn't MS dominate the console space w/ the same content slate?

I want this merger to fail but regulators' arguments are not very good lol

Yeah, weird that they waived the same content as a non-concern for foreclosure on the native front but had issues with it in the cloud front, where they've arguably signed agreement deals with more vendors than there are native hardwares where CoD could possibly reside.

Anyway, hopefully this is resolved in a timely and satisfactory manner and CMA passes it so we can be done.

 

[Vognerful]

Just my 2 cents and this is 100% pure speculation the CMA is not blocking this, something will get figured out by Monday

edit: nevermind, saw your other post

 

[KingT731]

Yeah, weird that they waived the same content as a non-concern for foreclosure on the native front but had issues with it in the cloud front, where they've arguably signed deals with more vendors than there are native hardwares where CoD could possibly reside.

Tbh it was more than likely because the cloud providers don't make games themselves. They don't have a choice but to license content.

 

[woahwoahwoah]

It isn't speculation when they intentionally said the deal is still blocked in the tweet.

I do believe HeisenbergFX4 has had confirmation the deal is closing, and that it is as good as fact.

From there the options are very limited, and the facts as they stand for the deal to close and still be officially blocked, is that Microsoft need to divest Activision to unblock it.

It sounds stupid and illogical to buy ATVI without A, but there is a cliff edge approaching and everyone that backed the deal financially still wins from that decision, even our banned twitter nutters that invested, and Kotick gets his pay out too. The only losers in that situation are those with thought experiments to spend PlayStation out the market and warriors wanting CoD leveraged.

Microsoft's win effectively saves them wasting $3b, gets them assets worth more than their offer and shows them exactly where the acquisition line is for their next potential targets, and allows them to say the M&A was a success and the cash they put up didn't depreciate in those 1.5years.

they're not divesting Activision

 

[Mr Moose]

Join the bet, if the cma blocks you get to eat the demented british delicacy called the wigan slappy and pretend it's the best thing you've eaten in your life.

The what?
*Googles*
Is that a pork pie in a bread bun? And what the fuck is a barm cake?

 

[PaintTinJr]

I get your reasoning, but divesting Activision is absolutely speculation. But if you want to believe that then that is fine too. I'll acknowledge it if you turn out to be correct.

I get that, I just know that in the UK our regulators and civil servants follow the law, and without a hail Mary pass solution from Microsoft to actually appease all the SLC issues, or them abandoning the deal - but the losses to inflation on $69b cash in 18months I assume is also a breakup cost - making the going ahead with a broken strategy better than not, and our real insider confirms the deal is definitely closing.

The reason I can't see the CMA backing down, is that despite our gravy train MPs by majority backing Remain in Brexit, and thwarting the result of the referendum in the UK for years, Brexit still happened because it was the lawful outcome. By comparison upholding a block on a M&A for this deal because Microsoft don't want to satisfy the demands is a trivial matter for the civil service IMO. Their choice is satisfy the SLC as stated or have it blocked or abandoned.

 

[Topher]

I get that, I just know that in the UK our regulators and civil servants follow the law, and without a hail Mary pass solution from Microsoft to actually appease all the SLC issues, or them abandoning the deal - but the losses to inflation on $69b cash in 18months I assume is also a breakup cost - making the going ahead with a broken strategy better than not, and our real insider confirms the deal is definitely closing.

The reason I can't see the CMA backing down, is that despite our gravy train MPs by majority backing Remain in Brexit, and thwarting the result of the referendum in the UK for years, Brexit still happened because it was the lawful outcome. By comparison upholding a block on a M&A for this deal because Microsoft don't want to satisfy the demands is a trivial matter for the civil service IMO. Their choice is satisfy the SLC as stated or have it blocked or abandoned.

Avatar bet if......wait.....no....nevermind.

 

[adamsapple]

Avatar bet if......wait.....no....nevermind.

Go on, what's the worst that could happen ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

 

[Mr Moose]

Go on, what's the worst that could happen ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

 

[Topher]

Go on, what's the worst that could happen ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Per Ass of Can Whooping