Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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StreetsofBeige said:
I find it hilarious that any governing body suing and debating corporations would even lose any battle.

You'd think if there's one set of lawyers and regulators who know more about laws and anti-competitive issues it would be places like FTC. Should be a slam dunk. They should know more and have more experience doing this for decades. If they are getting beat in their own backyard by corporate lawyers that's got to be embarrassing.

That's someone deciding on who to fix their car. They can go to a shop full of experienced mechanics. Or go to Jim Bob who works on his car on his driveway in his spare time. There should be no way the hobbyist should know more about fixing cars. But here we are.
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FTC is understaffed and overworked. Even the judge acknowledged it.

Look how big and complex the U.S economy got since 1980, but FTC employee count has decreased since 1980.

StreetsofBeige said:
You'd think if there's one set of lawyers and regulators who know more about laws and anti-competitive issues it would be places like FTC. Should be a slam dunk. They should know more and have more experience doing this for decades. If they are getting beat in their own backyard by corporate lawyers that's got to be embarrassing.

That's someone deciding on who to fix their car. They can go to a shop full of experienced mechanics. Or go to Jim Bob who works on his car on his driveway in his spare time. There should be no way the hobbyist should know more about fixing cars. But here we are.
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MS lawayers are there to specifically defend their client and interests and they have shit ton of resources to back them up. This just isn't the case for FTC.
 
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Chiggs said:
I totally get where you're coming from, but I read stuff like this:

fortune.com

In dropping challenge to Meta buying a virtual-reality startup, FTC hands Chair Lina Khan a stinging defeat | Fortune

Khan had been trying to reinvigorate antitrust enforcement under the Biden administration, but this case serves as a major setback.
fortune.com fortune.com



And it's like they're literally counting their moral victories. You only have so much time in office to do something and this is how you're going to spend your time in hopes that someone else in the future will go, "hey, wait a second."

This is precisely one of the reasons I cannot stand the modern Democratic party. Acting powerless.

All I'm saying is choose your battles wisely and give those battles your all. She's literally challenging everything and losing and maybe...maybe that deters some companies from merging because of some embarrassing emails they don't want disclosed? That's a heckuva bet, and I think they'll call her bluff.
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Twenty four thousand mergers in 2021, the highest between 2000-2022. How many opposed since Khan? 22.
 
ZehDon said:
All deals have timelines in which the offer for purchase is valid - this isn't a Microsoft invention, this is literally business 101. The time frame set for the purchase when the offer is made must therefore encompass all necessary regulatory hurdles, which in this case it did - hence why everyone except the CMA and FTC has been able to approve the deal. (…)
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Your argument ends there. Three of four identified major regulators have moved against, representing the biggest markets affected by this acquisition. One of them has demanded behavioral remedies, the other two have moved to block it. The FTC announced this in December last year, MS should've extended the date with ABK. They had the time, the court date is set.
 
Thirty7ven said:
Twenty four thousand mergers in 2021, the highest between 2000-2022. How many opposed since Khan? 22.
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Size of the businesses that were merging or acquiring would, of course, be important to know. Otherwise that's just a number...obviously a very large one.
 
Thirty7ven said:
Your argument ends there. Three of four identified major regulators have moved against, representing the biggest markets affected by this acquisition. One of them has demanded behavioral remedies, the other two have moved to block it. The FTC announced this in December last year, MS should've extended the date with ABK. They had the time, the court date is set.
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I don't think MS was at fault for not extending before. Who knows if they even could have convinced AB before. Also don't think FTC should be faulted for waiting. Didn't seem likely to go forward with CMA block in place.
 
Whats the current TL;DR with this news? I figured the new news wouldve been seperate thread but apparently it was just merged into this one.
 
GhostNTheBashShell said:
Whats the current TL;DR with this news? I figured the new news wouldve been seperate thread but apparently it was just merged into this one.
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I think it comes to CMA. So either something will happen with them this week or on Monday. Maybe CMA changed their mind or something but it ends with them.
 
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Thirty7ven said:
Is a car a car?
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Sure, but two smaller/mid businesses merging to compete against a number of larger competitors isn't what I'd find to be objectionable. It's stuff like CVS and Aetna that concerns me.

Then again, you do *sometimes* see some bigger ones go through that have a positive impact on the industry. I'd argue that T-Mobile and Sprint teaming up has had some pluses.

Edit: I meant Aetna...not Walgreens.

Edit: Also, fuck Pfizer.
 
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GhostNTheBashShell said:
Whats the current TL;DR with this news? I figured the new news wouldve been seperate thread but apparently it was just merged into this one.
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MS/Activision and the CMA agreed to pause the CAT litigation. CMA said that while they're open to a new restructured deal submission, their decision to block still stands. Needs to be a new restructured deal for them to review. This will potentially kick it back to all regulatory bodies for their review as well, since the deal has changed.

FTC filed to appeal the judges decision.
 
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The gaslighting (generally speaking) is hilarious.

Pro-merger person: "Why do you even care??!! It's not even a big deal!! Literally noooothing will change, it's just a bog standard merger"

Anti-merger person: "wait so if nothing will change and it doesn't matter why is Microsoft so hellbent on acquiring Activision and why are you so adamant that they succeed in doing so?"

Pro-merger person:
Max Greenfield Reaction GIF by CBS
 
This process in a nut shell:
6ffcc9f5-8b89-48e8-8741-5c9553691da5_text.gif


2 days ago it was a dead deal. Yesterday it was 100% happening. Today the deal is dead again but with a possibility of an entirely new deal happening. Come Monday who knows what the fuck is gonna happen.
 
In Cold Blood said:
I agree with them in some ways.
Positives for Xbox? COD etc in GP, maybe some exclusives when the studios arnt working on COD.
Other than that? King sucks. I don't like Blizzard games, and while I love COD, that's one IP.

Microsoft paid 110 million for Ninja Theory. They could have bought 60 Ninja Theory's for the same price as ABK. They paid 7 Billion for Zenimax. They could have bought 9 Zenimaxs for the same price.

I would take 60 Ninja Theory's or 9 Zenimaxs over ABK. They would be bringing out AAA exclusive game every couple of weeks.
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to further your point, you actually mean 600 Ninja Theorys
 
Thirty7ven said:
Wasting taxpayer dollars you mean?
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I certainly don't have a general opinion that scrutiny on large business deals is a waste of taxpayer dollars. I would hope some of my previous back and forths in this thread would show that. I do, however, think that government agencies owe it to the public to put their best case forward, though. And just like in any job, you have to perform, and you have to have some wins to hang your hat on.

In some cases ( like this one), I do feel that the appeal process could be a complete waste of time and resources if the original case was flawed. And I mean the actual case--not the spirit of the case, or the general sentiment, or what we think is right or fair. Shades of that quote by Robert Shapiro about "moral justice vs legal justice" and how the two are not always entwined.

In regards to DeepEnigma DeepEnigma 's comment about people using "waste of tax dollars" as "hollow posturing," I think there's definitely truth to that, especially when there are far more egregious examples of government waste.
 
supernova8 said:
Trade Desk replacing Activision Blizzard specifically on the Nasdaq 100 doesn't necessarily mean ActBliz is delisting, correct?

(ie it still trades on the S&P 500, no?)
(just making sure we're not jumping over any guns)
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Best part is that:
The replacement of Activision Blizzard with The Trade Desk is independent of the Nasdaq-100 Index® Special Rebalance which will continue as planned, effective Monday, July 24, 2023.

It is over.
 
Sanepar said:
Best part is that:
The replacement of Activision Blizzard with The Trade Desk is independent of the Nasdaq-100 Index® Special Rebalance which will continue as planned, effective Monday, July 24, 2023.

It is over.
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You didn't respond to what I actually said, though.

Activision Blizzard is still listed on the S&P 500. Unless we see notice that they are delisting completely, nothing is over.
 
ZehDon said:
Phil Spencer in his capacity as Executive vice-president of Gaming for Microsoft. The idea that Microsoft isn't bound by the sworn testimony of their representatives speaking in that capacity under oath in a court of a law is Twitter fantasy. Microsoft is bound to deliver ABKs games to PlayStation for the next decade. Full stop. I'd imagine, somewhere on paper, that's about as long as it'll take for Microsoft to break even on the ABK purchase - hence the willingness from Microsoft to do so. Vague temporal conjectures are a hedge-bet and you know it. "At some point in the future, Sony will raise the price of PS+! Quote me on it!". That statement is an almost certainty given its nature - but it doesn't validate my other bullshit today. In fifteen years, Microsoft can pull COD from PlayStation, and you'd be hard pressed to call it unfair at that time. Sony have ten years to ween themselves off their Call of Duty dependency - and I'd argue that's actually a good thing for PlayStation gamers.
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What is twitter fantasy is assuming that companies don't break promises they made during court hearings regarding antitrust suits ALL. THE. TIME.

And nothing happens. A slap on the wrist at most. That's the whole point of this charade, do whatever it takes, say whatever it takes, sign whatever it takes so that Microsoft can buy Activision. Once the genie is out of the bottle and the company has been acquired/integrated, you can't put it back in. Regulators are notoriously WEAK when it comes to enforcing statements/promises made YEARS AGO.

10 years from now, when Microsoft forecloses on CoD, they will simply say "we wanted to put it on Playstation but couldn't come to an agreement". Microsoft can shift the blame on Sony for wanting to maintain certain terms when Microsoft tries to strong arm them into something more aggresive.

And NOTHING will come of it when they do. That's why it's important to block acquisitions like this before they ever are consummated.
 
Sanepar said:
It is done guys. ABK is being delisted from Nasdaq Index and being replaced. Deal is done and will be settled Monday.
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C2brixx said:
Wow, MS is going to really close this. Next few days are going to a madness.
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Sanepar said:
Let's be honest MS has hard balls and don't care a shit about CMA.
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Sanepar said:
If they are doing that it is because the company is leaving Nasdaq so MS will close the deal.
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THIS F***ING THREAD, I CAN'T!!!!!!

GIF by MOODMAN
 
supernova8 said:
You didn't respond to what I actually said, though.

Activision Blizzard is still listed on the S&P 500. Unless we see notice that they are delisting completely, nothing is over.
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Seems like the ball is starting to roll. Activision has be listed on Nasdaq since 2005. They've only be a member of the S&P since 2015. For the Nasdaq to announce this now, but they must have some inside knowledge of whats going to happen.
 
C2brixx said:
Seems like the ball is starting to roll. Activision has be listed on Nasdaq since 2005. They've only be a member of the S&P since 2015. For the Nasdaq to announce this now, but they must have some inside knowledge of whats going to happen.
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You're just speculating. Just stick with "seems" and "maybe" rather than "must"
 
NEW YORK, July 12, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) today announced that The Trade Desk, Inc. (Nasdaq: TTD), will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index® (Nasdaq: NDX), the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index (Nasdaq: NDXE), and the Nasdaq-100 Ex-Tech Sector Index (Nasdaq: NDXX) prior to market open on Monday, July 17, 2023. The Trade Desk, Inc. will replace Activision Blizzard, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI) in the Nasdaq-100 Index®, the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index, and the Nasdaq-100 Ex-Tech Sector Index. Activision Blizzard, Inc. will also be removed from the Nasdaq-100 ESG Index (Nasdaq: NDXESG) prior to market open on Monday, July 17, 2023.
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www.marketscreener.com

The Trade Desk, Inc. to Join the Nasdaq-100 Index Beginning July 17th, 2023

NEW YORK, July 12, 2023 -- Nasdaq today announced that The Trade Desk, Inc. , will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index® , the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index , and the Nasdaq-100 Ex-Tech...
www.marketscreener.com www.marketscreener.com
 
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supernova8 said:
You're just speculating. Just stick with "seems" and "maybe" rather than "must"
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Deal is most likely a done deal. Probably has around a 80-90 percent at closing. FTC lost the PI and is doing an appeal which their case is weak AND have to race against time to stop the deal from closing on Monday. CMA paused the CAT.(superweird) I think it's done
 
No idea what this Nasdaq thing is honestly. Just looking into it, two other companies were replaced in the last month outside of the annual shift. As pointed out though, Activision has been on it since 2005 so removal could very likely be acquisition related. Also, Nasdaq ESG, fucking barf.
 
POKEYCLYDE said:
This process in a nut shell:
6ffcc9f5-8b89-48e8-8741-5c9553691da5_text.gif


2 days ago it was a dead deal. Yesterday it was 100% happening. Today the deal is dead again but with a possibility of an entirely new deal happening. Come Monday who knows what the fuck is gonna happen.
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Looks like it'll be the old dangerwank round the back of the bike shed chestnut. Money won't/will/maybe change hands.
 
Ginzeen said:
Deal is most likely a done deal. Probably has around a 80-90 percent at closing. FTC lost the PI and is doing an appeal which their case is weak AND have to race against time to stop the deal from closing on Monday. CMA paused the CAT.(superweird) I think it's done
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Didn't the CMA literally just come out (like a few hours ago) and say they are still opposing the deal?

Looks more like Microsoft is just doing a media blitz right now to make everyone assume it's a done deal. Public perception is a powerful thing, after all. It all ties into Microsoft/ActiBliz's narrative of "oh god they're wasting taxpayer dollars!" which is rich since most multinationals, including Microsoft, play all sorts of accounting tricks to avoid paying ....you guessed it... tax dollars..... (only caring about tax dollars when it suits them right)
 
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supernova8 said:
Didn't the CMA literally just come out (like a few hours ago) and say they are still opposing the deal?

Looks more like Microsoft is just doing a media blitz right now to make everyone assume it's a done deal. Public perception is a powerful thing, after all. It all ties into Microsoft/ActiBliz's narrative of "oh god they're wasting taxpayer dollars!" which is rich since most multinationals, including Microsoft, play all sorts of accounting tricks to avoid paying ....you guessed it... tax dollars..... (only caring about tax dollars when it suits them right)
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If the deal requires a restructuring it won't be closing on the 18th.

It will be interesting to hear the Activision reponse. I imagine they're also on board and agreed to an extension with MS to see how it plays out with the CMA.

M16 said:
yeah but can they close everywhere else except the U.K? we dont know.
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They cannot if they are pursuing restructuring/divestiture to the best of my knowledge.
 
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supernova8 said:
Didn't the CMA literally just come out (like a few hours ago) and say they are still opposing the deal?

Looks more like Microsoft is just doing a media blitz right now to make everyone assume it's a done deal. Public perception is a powerful thing, after all. It all ties into Microsoft/ActiBliz's narrative of "oh god they're wasting taxpayer dollars!" which is rich since most multinationals, including Microsoft, play all sorts of accounting tricks to avoid paying ....you guessed it... tax dollars..... (only caring about tax dollars when it suits them right)
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i think its theater. No reason to pause the CAT if they want a hard block. Also they opposed the current deal, not the altered one. If CMA was hellbent on a block they would of went to the CAT. Pausing the CAT is too strange for me to overlook it. I know nothing of this media blitz.
 
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