Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Godot25 said:
You mean until august when they are expected to have final verdict ready?
I'm sure that those fines for...one and half months would be unbearable for Microsoft :messenger_tears_of_joy:
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I love how everyone ignores the proverbal bird that Microsoft will flip in CMAs face. Good luck with negotiating any agreeements with CMA after that stunt.
 
Godot25 said:
You mean until august when they are expected to have final verdict ready?
I'm sure that those fines for...one and half months would be unbearable for Microsoft :messenger_tears_of_joy:
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If MS closes the deal before then, that changes everything. The CMA doesn't just look over its shoulder, shrug, and look back at the proposal. It starts a whole new chain of events. Because at that point MS just said fuck your process, remedies, and deals. We're taking what we want. There is no longer a reason to accept anything from them at that time.
 
Topher said:
Seems silly to break the law rather than simply amend the agreement and set a new date, imo.
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Well. This whole merger process is kinda silly.

But tbh. I doubt it will end up like that. Since CMA responded with certain date when they will have a verdict, I think it wouldn't be a problem for Bobby to extend for 2 months.

Whole conversation previously was about if Bobby won't agree with extension. I personally think that risk for Microsoft in that case is worth it. Other users disagree. It's fine. We will know soon.
 
Varteras said:
If MS closes the deal before then, that changes everything. The CMA doesn't just look over its shoulder, shrug, and look back at the proposal. It starts a whole new chain of events. Because at that point MS just said fuck your process, remedies, and deals. We're taking what we want. There is no longer a reason to accept anything from them at that time.
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People THINK that this is what would have happened.
Same people who thought that deal is dead because CMA blocked it. And voila. Two months later CMA came back to negotiating table.
IF (big if) Microsoft would try to complete a merger over CMA block, I have no doubts they would communicate it with CMA with "sorry, we had no choice." Not doing it "behind their back" with "fuck your process."
 
Godot25 said:
People THINK that this is what would have happened.
Same people who thought that deal is dead because CMA blocked it. And voila. Two months later CMA came back to negotiating table.
IF (big if) Microsoft would try to complete a merger over CMA block, I have no doubts they would communicate it with CMA with "sorry, we had no choice." Not doing it "behind their back" with "fuck your process."
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You are talking about violating UK law. As if that's no big deal.
 
Godot25 said:
It's huge risk of course.
But if Bobby will say no to merger extension, it's not like Microsoft have a choice.
If they won't do it, they will be without ABK
It they will do it, they have chance to have ABK
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But even not considering the fines...
And their global reputation?
Trashed in the bin?
Microsoft will be labeled like a company going to the extreme of violating laws to get what they want.
This is huge negative precedent they're creating for their whole business and reputation.
It is not so easy, anyway let's see how things unfold.
With all the twists I've given up trying to predict what's going to happen (including a possible ruling to the FTC's request to extend the TRO)
I'm open to all scenarios.
 
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Godot25 said:
You mean until august when they are expected to have final verdict ready?
I'm sure that those fines for...one and half months would be unbearable for Microsoft :messenger_tears_of_joy:
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You're suggesting they break law and pay fines. I could see you same types saying they should break contracts and pay fines too.

This is why ultra wealthy companies shouldn't own everything.
 
Negotiator101 said:
The one Sony will sign if Microsoft get the deal passed (the one Sony refused to sign before).
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I don't think XBox is going to extend that olive branch, they'll just end up shipping it on the PS for the foreseeable future and make a financial call in about 5 or so years from now.

I wouldn't even be surprised if they used CoD specifically to have more accurate info on what Sony has planned for the PS6 through the dev kits.
 
tryDEATH said:
I don't think XBox is going to extend that olive branch, they'll just end up shipping it on the PS for the foreseeable future and make a financial call in about 5 or so years from now.

I wouldn't even be surprised if they used CoD specifically to have more accurate info on what Sony has planned for the PS6 through the dev kits.
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They're not going to get PS6 early dev kits if the deal gets done sony already stated that.
 
Negotiator101 said:
Obviously they'll draw up a new deal, you know what I mean.
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And to that Jimbo will still say:

Passing Season 8 GIF by THE NEXT STEP
 
DryvBy said:
You're suggesting they break law and pay fines. I could see you same types saying they should break contracts and pay fines too.

This is why ultra wealthy companies shouldn't own everything.
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Yep. The possibility that trillion dollar companies can laugh off or ignore the pitiful fines regulatory bodies are authorized to levy is truly a scary thought.
 
Godot25 said:
You mean until august when they are expected to have final verdict ready?
I'm sure that those fines for...one and half months would be unbearable for Microsoft :messenger_tears_of_joy:
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Post like this is the reason why anti trust laws, regulators exist.

DryvBy said:
You're suggesting they break law and pay fines. I could see you same types saying they should break contracts and pay fines too.

This is why ultra wealthy companies shouldn't own everything.
Click to expand...

Topher said:
Yep. The possibility that trillion dollar companies can laugh off or ignore the pitiful fines regulatory bodies are authorized to levy is truly a scary thought.
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Exactly.
 
Varteras said:
Then get ready for fireworks. Because the CMA is not the FTC and a foreign company thumbing its nose at UK law is not a good look heading into a court.
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I hope u are right but I think they will put a fine of few millions there will be peanuts for MS. Any fine will be less than 3 bi.
 
Godot25 said:
People THINK that this is what would have happened.
Same people who thought that deal is dead because CMA blocked it. And voila. Two months later CMA came back to negotiating table.
IF (big if) Microsoft would try to complete a merger over CMA block, I have no doubts they would communicate it with CMA with "sorry, we had no choice." Not doing it "behind their back" with "fuck your process."
Click to expand...
Then they'll all hold hands and dance and sing Kumbaya!
 
Ah morning news. CMA is back on the table, just 18~ hours left till the TRO expires unless the 9th circuit replies. Let's see if there's any Monday fireworks.
 
Godot25 said:
Like. You can't tell me that if you were Microsoft you would not at least try to complete it even with huge risk. There is no point for Microsoft to NOT try.
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If the risk is forced divestment of Activision and CoD in 2 years time @ a $20b loss I'd say it's not as cut and dry as 'let's take the shot'.
 
Gudji said:
They're not going to get PS6 early dev kits if the deal gets done sony already stated that.
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Sony did mention that as being a problem, but its one they will have to solve with MS if they want CoD on PS6, which turn makes CoD a headache for Sony around the time for next generation.
 
Topher said:
Yep. The possibility that trillion dollar companies can laugh off or ignore the pitiful fines regulatory bodies are authorized to levy is truly a scary thought.
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I'm guessing they use divestment when fines don't solve the concerns. That's one way to make a merger seem very unattractive.
 
Godot25 said:
So it's still better for Microsoft to at least try to close if there is no extension. Because yeah. You are risking fines and at worst you won't have ABK.
But. It can also end up that you will pay fines, CMA will work towards deal with Microsoft and you will have ABK. And I'm pretty sure that CMA will let Microsoft know what they are intended to do if Microsoft will try to close on Monday.

Like. You can't tell me that if you were Microsoft you would not at least try to complete it even with huge risk. There is no point for Microsoft to NOT try.
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If I was MS, I wouldn't have flinched at selling off Activision. With King they have an absolute, immediate foothold in mobile gaming.

We are about to find out how much MS wants this deal to pass.
 
wolffy66 said:
Is it a big deal? Is it a big enough deal? I think we're gonna find out.

I still think the cma looks the other way, if MS closes, until they reach their decision.
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You think the role of a regulator is to look the other way whilst a $2.5t company completely ignores your order and completes a $70b acquisition?
 
If these megacorps could just eat the fines and go about their business why would they even go through this whole process at all instead of just merging on the day they've come to an agreement?
 
Ass of Can Whooping said:
Wild lmao
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I know it makes Sony fans mad. But the reality is it's only a month. The cma just has to review the deal that MS has clearly sent them. They will say you shouldn't have closed. MS will say they had no choice. CMA will fine them. MS has $3B here to play with due to the deal with Activision. Then they will still follow thru with their hearing and will tell MS their decision. Obviously at that point things could get ugly for MS but I think they've already signaled what they want done behind closed doors.
 
wolffy66 said:
I know it makes Sony fans mad. But the reality is it's only a month. The cma just has to review the deal that MS has clearly sent them. They will say you shouldn't have closed. MS will say they had no choice. CMA will fine them. MS has $3B here to play with due to the deal with Activision. Then they will still follow thru with their hearing and will tell MS their decision. Obviously at that point things could get ugly for MS but I think they've already signaled what they want done behind closed doors.
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The reality is they're not breaking the law. Get this fantasy out of your head already
 
wolffy66 said:
I know it makes Sony fans mad. But the reality is it's only a month. The cma just has to review the deal that MS has clearly sent them. They will say you shouldn't have closed. MS will say they had no choice. CMA will fine them. MS has $3B here to play with due to the deal with Activision. Then they will still follow thru with their hearing and will tell MS their decision. Obviously at that point things could get ugly for MS but I think they've already signaled what they want done behind closed doors.
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You think they'll close without the CMA approval? That's a risky move.
 
Zheph said:
There is so much you can do with backward compatibility...
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They already revived the old CoD MP servers.

I dream of a day with a 4K/60 BC version of Singularity.


Gudji said:
They usually give the finalized kits or at a stage that leaking hardware details won't matter.
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Yeah, there's a misconception, Sony said they won't send them EARLY, they didn't say they won't send the m PERIOD.

But this means that it might cause development issues in annual franchises, and the first year or two of the new generation might be forced to be BC version on the PS6 if Activision (under MS) doesn't have the dev kits early.
 
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