Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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splattered said:
Didn't the initial articles say that Microsoft Activision and CMA all had requested the delay of litigation?
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Over My Head Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
TrueGrime said:
3 billion is a pebble in the pond when your annual gross earnings are between 5.3 and 6.4 billion annual. Even on the low end of 5 billion annually, this acquisition pays itself back in less than 20 years, which is about a good night's sleep for a company of MS' size.
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I'm not sure handing over around half your gross earnings for an entire year for zero return, is a pebble.

Perhaps you have extremely large pebbles where you live though.
 
Punished Miku said:
I think we already determined that the concept of the nation-state will collapse if the deal goes through, so we probably wont have functioning police at that point. Maybe rival warlords will go after them.
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I am assuming you are referring to my post, which was based on the possibility that Microsoft just says fuck it to the CMA and is somewhat unlikely imho.

A country with the 6th largest global economy's regulatory bodies being shown as impotent to stop a corporate acquisition made by the 2nd largest corporation sure would set an interesting precedent, wouldnt it?
 
kvltus lvlzvs said:
I am assuming you are referring to my post, which was based on the possibility that Microsoft just says fuck it to the CMA and is somewhat unlikely imho.

A country with the 6th largest global economy's regulatory bodies being shown as impotent to stop a corporate acquisition made by the 2nd largest corporation sure would set an interesting precedent, wouldnt it?
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Yes! And a horrible precedent at that. Is it worth losing your world reputation if you are the CMA over Call of Duty?
 
Jadsey said:
I'm not sure handing over around half your gross earnings for an entire year for zero return, is a pebble.

Perhaps you have extremely large pebbles where you live though.
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Which is why if this deal doesn't happen for whatever reason (less than %10 chance imho), there will be major scalps taken by Nadella.
 
kvltus lvlzvs said:
I am assuming you are referring to my post, which was based on the possibility that Microsoft just says fuck it to the CMA and is somewhat unlikely imho.

A country with the 6th largest global economy's regulatory bodies being shown as impotent to stop a corporate acquisition made by the 2nd largest corporation sure would set an interesting precedent, wouldnt it?
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I think things will settle out relatively normally. I've made no secret that I think the CMA's reasoning is severely flawed in this case. I think if they had more of an argument, other regulatory agencies would have similar concerns. What I think is more likely is UK politicians revisiting the CMAs authority / decision-making processes to ensure that they can be trusted to make consequential decisions fairly in line with the rest of the world.

You're asking me if it's interesting? Sure. But I think what's been more interesting is really just the irrational and extreme behavior of the CMA and the FTC in this case. I think things will get worked out either way. I'm not that concerned with precedent here.
 
I've reversed my opinion on the FTC. I respect the tenacity. They see wrongs in the world but the law isn't there to support their findings as the law is mostly written by the rich. They're trying their best and I applaud them for it. No clowns here.

That being said I hope those ends soon
 
GHG said:
These are some stinky admissions by Jez:






Akin to a trust fund kid being bailed out by their parents after flunking school/university.
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This explains SO MUCH to me now. I see why alot of the xbox media folks on podcasts and youtube "NEED" this deal to happen for MS now. I literally didn't know they feel like it's a life or death situation for the Xbox brand.
 
TrueGrime said:
3 billion is a pebble in the pond when your annual gross earnings are between 5.3 and 6.4 billion annual. Even on the low end of 5 billion annually, this acquisition pays itself back in less than 20 years, which is about a good night's sleep for a company of MS' size.
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lol no it's not. That $3 billion is gonna sting so much.

If $3 billion was nothing, they could have just subsidized Series X and sell it for $299 against a $500 PS5 and essentially gain the market share that they're so desperately after.
 
TrueGrime said:
3 billion is a pebble in the pond when your annual gross earnings are between 5.3 and 6.4 billion annual. Even on the low end of 5 billion annually, this acquisition pays itself back in less than 20 years, which is about a good night's sleep for a company of MS' size.
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2.5 billion for Minecraft was recovered in 1 year. I don't think it will take MS long to recover this. Not to mention, it just becomes an asset. The money doesn't actually leave the company.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
lol no it's not. That $3 billion is gonna sting so much.

If $3 billion was nothing, they could have just subsidized Series X and sell it for $299 against a $500 PS5 and essentially gain the market share that they're so desperately after.
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That 3b is nothing compared to what is on the line.
Acquiring ABK is top priority at this point. This is their golden parachute for mobile entry.
 
Kvally said:
2.5 billion for Minecraft was recovered in 1 year. I don't think it will take MS long to recover this. Not to mention, it just becomes an asset. The money doesn't actually leave the company.
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ABK's revenue was $7.53b last year. That's just revenue and not profit which is much smaller. It will take quite some time unless they go full monetization mode. Especially if they decide to foreclose a massive portion of said revenue on a certain console.
 
James Sawyer Ford said:
Who exactly is the market leader after Microsoft has acquired nearly $100B in market cap of studios in the last few years?

Microsoft will very likely be the market leader by revenue if Activision goes through
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Sony is light years ahead

(Three months ended March 31, 2023)

PlayStation $8.11 bn
Microsoft $3.60 bn
ABK $1.76 bn


Sanepar said:
The war bid for EA, T2 and Ubi will be out of park for Sony. These 3 will decide the future of this market.

If i could bet, i would say at least 2 of them will be with MS on the next 5-10 years.
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Microsoft is chasing shadows. They are trying to kill something that no longer exists (2010s Sony)

James Sawyer Ford said:
Sonys response would be outside of square enix

It would be take2 or EA

Alternatively it could be a hunch of smaller studios collectively, like Square + CDPR + FromSoft instead of a big publisher
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Sony should invest in Asia, still PlayStation's Achilles' Heel

PS5 is selling incredibly well in America, and Sony IPs will be massive in 5 years. They should focus on managing Naughty Dog, Santa Monica, Imsomniac, Sucker Punch, Bend, Bungie , etc

Ogbert said:
Would Square even make a difference?

The only real acquisition that Sony could make that would have the same sort of 'cultural' weight is From.
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Square Enix would make a difference in Japan (console, mobile, MMO, amusement ...), plus an operating margin higher than 10%.

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Sanepar said:
Sony bank market cap is $10 bi right? They intend to sell 80%. They have 3.6 bi to spend until next fiscal year. So 11.6 bi if they sell all stocks this year for whole company not only game. I think u can get Square for 6-6.5 bi but would be stupid and help nothing when u lost Cod.
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Sony is Japan's 800-pound gorilla. They can easily replicate Microsoft's strategy (in Japan)

Enterprise Value
Sony $130 bn

-----------------
Nintendo $39 bn
Panasonic $31 bn
Toshiba $15 bn
NEC $14 bn
Bandai Namco $13 bn
Capcom $7.8 bn
Konami $6.2 bn
Koei Tecmo $5.5 bn
Square Enix $4.0 bn
Sega Sammy $3.9 bn
Kadokawa $2.7 bn
 
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feynoob said:


And this one

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The second one is just a CMC for clearing up unused schedule time from the now defunct appeal that has been withdrawn by Microsoft and confirmed to no longer be needed if a CMA probe is now scheduled in the next six weeks..

The appeal info will be outdated the second the CMA start looking at a restructured offer. It doesn't mean Microsoft can't issue a new appeal after the probe, but Monday is a nothing issue unless Microsoft contradicted the CMA that they no longer want to stop the appeal.
 
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ChorizoPicozo said:
I really haven't been paying that much attention to the words and deeds of what people are saying. I feel like I have been on the periphery of this discourse. However, I am very aware of the impact of this acquisition has been having on the fandom of each side.

and i see both sides:

The xbox fandom has developed a deep resentment towards Play Station, a lot of it comes from being ignorant towards the meaning and implications of what First Party Studios are.

They believe all these GOTY sony has produced are unfair, that these exclusive have been taken away from xbox.
They perceive the media as being biased towards Sony, giving excessive praise to their games.

For them, this acquisition is the revenge they have been waiting for.

PlayStation fans feel that this acquisition threatens Sony's dominance in an unfair way. Instead of investing in studios, they see the acquisition of these publishers as an effortless and dishonest method of competition.

personally speaking i don't like the hypocrisy of play station fans when they use the "consolidation or game pass bad" arguments.

But I feel sorry for the xbox fan that believes that these acquisition mean that xbox is suddenly going to produce and deliver dormant IP and banger after banger. they are oblivious at the negative effects of big mergers.

my sadistic side smiles at the people suffering due to Starfield's exclusivity as well as the complete shitshow that was Redfall and the metdown from the xbox community.

the point is: Xbox is trying to act as the only benevolent pro-consumer company...when we know that of course is Bullshit of the highest degree, for them and for their fans what seems like and Epic Win with this acquisition is going to be a fucking nightmare, i can guarantee that.

And for Play Station and their fans....what it seems like such a massive threat....is actually the best opportunity to be even more aggressive (especially when they are in such position of power).

i find all the concern about consolidation, Game Pass or Cloud as well as "more options or accesibility to games everywhere for free" nothing more than a charade.
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Who would trust Jim Ryan in a time like this though? Dude seems like a dunce.

Chukhopops said:
The flaw in this reasoning is that game sales is 22% of ABK revenue while in-game revenue is 78%. ABK could make console COD entirely free-to play and still turn a large profit based on 2022 numbers (and that's assuming there wouldn't be more people playing it if it was F2P).

In-game revenue is not linearly connected to game sales since a lot of the ABK catalog is free to play already. When their game sales drop by 29% between 2021 and 2022, their in-game revenue only drops by 9%.

So it's not like the game will somehow no longer make a ton of money if it gets integrated in the subscription plan of two platforms.
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$1 Billion from straight up games sales per year is ALOT of money man.
 
zedinen said:
Sony is light years ahead

(Three months ended March 31, 2023)

PlayStation $8.11 bn
Microsoft $3.60 bn
ABK $1.76 bn
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Keep in mind that both company will see huge revenue if they merge together.
Part of the reason is the increase of GP and Xbox consoles.

zedinen said:
Microsoft is chasing shadows. They are trying to kill something that no longer exists (2010s Sony)
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If Sony loses COD, they are in series problems.
COD brings them alot of money. From PS+ subs, game sales and mtx. Losing that means huge hit on their revenue.
Keep in mind that PS also helps other Sony division.

zedinen said:
Sony should invest in Asia, still PlayStation's Achilles' Heel

PS5 is selling incredible well in America, and Sony IPs will be massive in 5 years. They should focus on managing Naughty Dog, Santa Monica, Imsomniac, Sucker Punch, Bend, Bungie , etc
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Consoles sales doesn't mean much, if you get a hit on your software sales.
Sony needs to protect that software sales.
If MS owns activision, nothing stops them from putting those 3rd party games day1 on gamepass.


Also COD marketing rights is a big boost for any platform owner.
Xbox 360 benefited this massively from COD. You get in to a position of negotiation power.

Another thing that people are not paying attention to is the revenues that Xbox will get from Activision. Those money will go back to Xbox, which allows them to buy big AAA day1 games for gamepass. That is a massive boost for Xbox. Not only that, they can now afford to make games like cyberpunk 2077 timed exclusive to Xbox with that money.
 
Ginzeen said:
Deal is in bad shape. I'm not confident it gets approved anymore. I thought it was all worked out behind the scenes. Nope. I was wrong. CMA coming out with that report took the winds out of my sails. I feel theirs a good shot at an extension with MS/ABK though. We will see.
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Your opinions in this thread is.........................

Inside Out Rollercoaster GIF by Nikki Elledge Brown
 
DeepEnigma said:
It doesn't just come down to "bid" either. Partnerships, structure and other options. Tencent doesn't have any more than Sony in spend, and Apple/Amazon have zero partnership tenure or publisher experience with EA or T2 in comparison.

I don't think MS would be allowed near EA or T2 if they're granted ABK after getting Bethesda.
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why not?
- they are still in "last place"
- they can bring gta or others to more devices and gamers
- the consumers will benefit because they will pay less

for me abk authorizes any acquisition. obviously I hope this is not the case and there is a way to block them, I find it absurd that ms can continue to grow with the excuses I have listed.
 
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feynoob said:
And July 18 is the deadline, which makes that date further away from the deadline.
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It's not a deadline.

It's the date where ABK can decide to bail on the deal and take their $3 billion.

They have made no indication that this is their plan, in fact they have done the opposite which is work with MS / CMA on this restructured deal.
 
zapper said:
why not?
- they are still in "last place"
- they can bring gta or others to more devices and gamers
- the consumers will benefit because they will pay less

for me abk any acquisition. obviously I hope this is not the case and there is a way to block them, I find it absurd that ms can continue to grow with the excuses I have listed.
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It's due to Call of duty.
That one makes it harder for MS to buy the other big 3.
 
zapper said:
yes, but coincidentally they will discuss on July 17, in time to suspend the current block...
giphy-downsized.gif
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I don't think the previous ruling from the CMA just goes away if they go back to negotiations. Maybe there is precedent here to tell us? They might get a waiver to close while negotiating if that's a possibility.
 
zapper said:
yes, but coincidentally they will discuss on July 17, in time to suspend the current block...
giphy-downsized.gif
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It's a CAT thing to reschedule the appeal if there will be one in the future.
CMA has already spoken, they won't have an other verdict ready before July 18th.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Why would R* and EA be off the market?
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I mean it's prediction - but T2 would be next most obvious acquisition in-line, and if not MS, someone else will.

As for EA and other similarly sized publishers (too small to directly compete, too big to survive without billion $ yearly releases) that don't make for attractive acquisition targets - they will have an increasingly hard time staying relevant in this new sub-dominated world.
 
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feynoob said:
It's due to Call of duty.
That one makes it harder for MS to buy the other big 3.
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cod can be so decisive as to prevent other acquisitions? so far it seems to me that regulators / judges / public opinion have bought all the alleged benefits offered by ms with this deal, I don't see how they can be losers in a couple of months or years even with t2 or ea.
 
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