Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
zapper said:
cod can be so decisive as to prevent other acquisitions? so far it seems to me that regulators / judges / public opinion have bought all the alleged benefits offered by ms with this deal, I don't see how they can be losers in a couple of months or years even with t2 or ea.
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Microsoft could no longer use the "woe is me, we're irrelevant" excuse after purchasing a company of nearly the same size as all of Sony.

A purchase by Microsoft of T2 or EA would receive even more scrutiny since they now have the largest first party in the industry.
 
If anyone wants access to a free docket report for the 9th:

www.courtlistener.com

FTC v. Microsoft Corporation, 23-15992 - CourtListener.com

Docket for FTC v. Microsoft Corporation, 23-15992 — Brought to you by Free Law Project, a non-profit dedicated to creating high quality open legal information.
www.courtlistener.com www.courtlistener.com

Check out how many attorney appearances have been entered for MS and AB. These giant companies do not mess around when they want something. Wow.
 
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Yoboman said:
Watched five minutes and nothing about cum in pants and cum drinking bets. Why link to these people without any clear understanding of the deal?
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I assume a Lawyer would know more than I would, as well as most the people who would click on the video. I get my information from GAF as well as other sources. I try to understand all sides of this situation the best I can in order to form my own opinions. I'm not linking this to anybody specific and did not take into account that people don't understand the deal. Hell, I don't even fully understand it, that's why I listen and ask questions.

What's your issue with sharing information?
 
mayham2199 said:
Over at res their is speculation that CMA is going to allow MS to close while they continue their investigation where is this coming from?
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fart GIF
 
Ansphn said:
I dont understand why they have a problem with Xbox becoming a publisher. Xbox should have done this years ago and make more profit than they ever made in their history. Look at EA, look at Activision. Xbox with the backing of Microsoft would be a top 3 publisher in gaming. Imagine Halo getting saved by the PlayStation and Nintendo base.
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Yeah I don't see how the Activision deal passing doesn't hasten the 'box' part of Xbox brand going away.
 
mayham2199 said:
It would just seem weird that would be the case considering everything the CMA has said recently.
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Yes, CMA literally came out and said they won't be able to make a decision by the 18th, and possibly need all the way to end of august.

I don't understand what else can be done to makes folks understand this clear statement?

CMA doesn't do backhand deals or make a deal and lies to the public they are still investigating.

The sheer idiocy of anyone who suggest that is making my brains cells vapourise. I don't put people on ignore that often, but I started doing that to quite a few people on here to save the rest of my brain cells.
 
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mayham2199 said:
It would just seem weird that would be the case considering everything the CMA has said recently.
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I mean we have pretty much got new CMA developments everyday since the FTC got blocked so the fact that there is any discussion at all is strange considering they actually had a strong case vs Microsoft.

Well the cloud argument was weak but they don't have anyone who can throw out their arguments. Either Microsoft lobbied the government to force them to reconsider or something came up legally that might have sank them. Or maybe they are stalling so Bobby pockets 3 million.
 
ckaneo said:
I mean we have pretty much got new CMA developments everyday since the FTC got blocked so the fact that there is any discussion at all is strange considering they actually had a strong case vs Microsoft.

Well the cloud argument was weak but they don't have anyone who can throw out their arguments. Either Microsoft lobbied the government to force them to reconsider or something came up legally that might have sank them. Or maybe they are stalling so Bobby pockets 3 million.
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You are probably like 99% right but nothing in this case shocks me anymore tbh if we wake up to something Monday I wouldn't be shocked either
 
jm89 said:
Yes, CMA literally came out and said they won't be able to make a decision by the 18th, and possibly need all the way to end of august.

I don't understand what else can be done to makes folks understand this clear statement?

CMA doesn't do backhand deals or make a deal and lies to the public they are still investigating.

The sheer idiocy of anyone who suggest that is making my brains cells vapourise. I don't put people on ignore that often, but I started doing that to quite a few people on here to save the rest of my brain cells.
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CMA made a deal with Microsoft to pause the CAT hearing so they clearly do some backhand deals
 
jm89 said:
Yes, CMA literally came out and said they won't be able to make a decision by the 18th, and possibly need all the way to end of august.

I don't understand what else can be done to makes folks understand this clear statement?

CMA doesn't do backhand deals or make a deal and lies to the public they are still investigating.

The sheer idiocy of anyone who suggest that is making my brains cells vapourise. I don't put people on ignore that often, but I started doing that to quite a few people on here to save the rest of my brain cells.
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you dont know better than anyone else at the moment

from bloomberg sources yesterday
Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard Inc. are considering giving up some control of their cloud-gaming business in the UK as a way to appease regulators so they can complete their $69 billion merger by the July 18 deadline, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Both companies still think it's possible to close the deal, which would be the largest ever in the video-game industry, before next week's deadline, the people said.
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Sanepar said:
The deal is done. Monday will be the day for a new king :/
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I honestly don't see how it could be unless CMA is out there just misleading people or MS closes over the CMA. Both scenarios seem insane to me. Either way I'm just glad we will know one way or the other on Monday.

ckaneo said:
I mean we have pretty much got new CMA developments everyday since the FTC got blocked so the fact that there is any discussion at all is strange considering they actually had a strong case vs Microsoft.

Well the cloud argument was weak but they don't have anyone who can throw out their arguments. Either Microsoft lobbied the government to force them to reconsider or something came up legally that might have sank them. Or maybe they are stalling so Bobby pockets 3 million.
Click to expand...

It's not to weird to me only because the CMA doesn't want to come across as unreasonable and not willing to work with MS. It's in their best interest to work with MS as much as possible even if they know at the end of the day they are still blocking unless divestments are done. Not to mention they wanted this case in October so putting a pause on it now actually works out better for them.
 
Interesting legal analysis examining the FTC's failed strategy:

www.jdsupra.com

FTC Foreclosure Theory “Foreclosed”: FTC Loses Campaign to Block Microsoft’s Purchase of Activision | JD Supra

On July 10, 2023, the United States District Court for the Northern District of California denied the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC’s) request to...
www.jdsupra.com www.jdsupra.com

Some highlights:

This is the FTC's second loss in a video game merger trial this year, following its failed attempt to block Meta's purchase of VR fitness studio Within.1 Whereas the FTC publicly touted the Meta/Within loss as a victory in terms of validating the underlying potential competition theory, the Microsoft/Activision loss leaves no room for such positive spin.
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Fix-It-First Remedy "Forecloses" FTC Theory: The court found it compelling that Microsoft proactively made commitments to its gaming platform competitors about access to Activision's most popular franchise, Call of Duty. Microsoft publicly committed to maintain Call of Duty's availability on Sony's PlayStation console and Valve's Steam store. Although neither Sony nor Valve was willing to enter an agreement with Microsoft, neither doubted Microsoft's sincerity. Further, Microsoft entered agreements with Nintendo and five cloud gaming providers to bring Call of Duty to these platforms for the first time. The FTC argued the court should consider the effect of these offers and agreements only at the remedy stage, but the court held they were relevant in determining liability: "The FTC must address the circumstances surrounding the merger as they actually exist." The court found the offers and agreements to be strong evidence against the possibility of harm. Indeed, with respect to the cloud gaming market, the court found the agreements "foreclosed" any argument that the deal would substantially lessen competition.
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FTC Attempt to Alter Vertical Merger Standard Unsuccessful: The FTC argued that a vertical merger may be prohibited by showing either an incentive to foreclose, or an ability to foreclose, or "functional liability factors" (such as a "trend toward concentration in the industry"), relying on its own opinion in Illumina/Grail.2 However, the court held FTC had the burden to show Microsoft would have both an ability and incentive to foreclose competitors: "Illumina … provides no authority for this proposition, nor could it…. If there is no incentive to foreclose, then there is no probability of foreclosure and the alleged concomitant anticompetitive effect. Likewise, if there is no ability, then a party's incentive to foreclose is irrelevant."
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Effect on Competition Must Be Substantial to Block Merger: The court held it was not sufficient for the FTC to show Microsoft would "derive some economic benefit from withholding [content]." In any vertical merger, the court explained, the buyer will have complex incentives, including some incentives to foreclose. Nevertheless, many vertical mergers have "indisputable pro-competitive effects." The FTC had to show a reasonable probability that the merger would substantially lessen competition as required by Section 7 of Clayton Act.
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No Harm in Console Market: The court found no evidence the merger would give Microsoft an incentive and ability to harm competition by removing Call of Duty from PlayStation. Microsoft convincingly argued it would incur huge reputational costs by pulling a long-running, massively popular, cross-platform game away from PlayStation, especially after making public commitments not to do so. The court pointed to Microsoft's 2014 acquisition of the Minecraft franchise as precedent—nearly 10 years later, Minecraft games are available on a variety of platforms, including PlayStation and Sony's subscription service, PlayStation Plus. The FTC argued Microsoft has a history of making titles exclusive after an acquisition, pointing to Microsoft's decision following its purchase of ZeniMax in 2021 to make two new ZeniMax titles exclusive (Starfield and Redfall). But the court distinguished these new titles from Call of Duty, which has a well-established cross-platform community that is key to its continued popularity (notably the court did not discuss any other Activision title in this analysis).
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Judge Corley's opinion continues a trend of judicial skepticism towards vertical merger challenges and may further impede attempts by the antitrust agencies to litigate such cases. For this reason, it is not surprising the FTC intends to appeal to the Ninth Circuit.
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Facing this political backlash, a rocky start to the UK appeal (with the Tribunal denying the CMA's request for more time to prepare), and now the FTC's clear loss in the U.S., the CMA appears to be trying to find a way to settle. This leaves the CMA in uncharted territory, as it already issued its final decision blocking the deal. There are suggestions that the CMA could, based on suitably revised remedies, withdraw and reissue its final decision or carry out a voluntary remittal, where it would essentially carry out another (truncated) review by reissuing its charge-sheet against the deal (Provisional Findings) and enable the standard remedies review and decision process.
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TL; DR
  • FTC theories failed the judge's sniff test on multiple fronts
  • Minecraft was a great piece of evidence for Microsoft
  • Microsoft's 10-year deal parade maybe didn't persuade the judge to think MS are noble and caring, but the deals were unprecedented so it was quite sufficient
    • Especially with Nintendo
  • CMA clearly out of their depth, bet on the wrong horse, and now in uncharted territory
There's a lot more at the link.
 
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At least to comfort my heart even with this crap chance of ms sealing this deal, at least we have each other. So many nice guys on this thread.
 
If this does close do you think ms will improve cod? Put it on better servers, maybe take sledgehammer off l, give the older games a resolution bump etc
 
havoc00 said:
If this does close do you think ms will improve cod? Put it on better servers, maybe take sledgehammer off l, give the older games a resolution bump etc
Click to expand...

I think they're gonna stay out of activisions operations as much as possible.
 
Chiggs said:
Interesting legal analysis examining the FTC's failed strategy:

www.jdsupra.com

FTC Foreclosure Theory “Foreclosed”: FTC Loses Campaign to Block Microsoft’s Purchase of Activision | JD Supra

On July 10, 2023, the United States District Court for the Northern District of California denied the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC’s) request to...
www.jdsupra.com www.jdsupra.com

Some highlights:













TL; DR
  • FTC theories failed the judge's sniff test on multiple fronts
  • Minecraft was a great piece of evidence for Microsoft
  • Microsoft's 10-year deal parade maybe didn't persuade the judge to think MS are noble and caring, but the deals were unprecedented so it was quite sufficient
    • Especially with Nintendo
  • CMA clearly out of their depth, bet on the wrong horse, and now in uncharted territory
There's a lot more at the link.
Click to expand...
It is an alternate universe article because everything they wrote about the CMA is factually wrong. Not least the final paragraph suggesting the CMA's powers are being reduced from this deal interaction, when they are being given more power and expanding by 250 staff currently.

The article is at least 50% hopium.
 
Chiggs said:
Interesting legal analysis examining the FTC's failed strategy:

www.jdsupra.com

FTC Foreclosure Theory “Foreclosed”: FTC Loses Campaign to Block Microsoft’s Purchase of Activision | JD Supra

On July 10, 2023, the United States District Court for the Northern District of California denied the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC’s) request to...
www.jdsupra.com www.jdsupra.com

Some highlights:















TL; DR
  • FTC theories failed the judge's sniff test on multiple fronts
  • Minecraft was a great piece of evidence for Microsoft
  • Microsoft's 10-year deal parade maybe didn't persuade the judge to think MS are noble and caring, but the deals were unprecedented so it was quite sufficient
    • Especially with Nintendo
  • CMA clearly out of their depth, bet on the wrong horse, and now in uncharted territory
There's a lot more at the link.
Click to expand...
Wish those lawyers can provide me some of that cocaine.
cocaine GIF
 
Proelite said:
0% chance the FTC gets an emergency stay. Too little time left and balance of equities is heavily against them, not to mention no evidence of imminent irreparable harm (COD is guaranteed to be on PS till end of 2024, consumers aren't losing access to COD in MGS and Cloud, no company has stepped forth under testimony to say that they'll enter the markets if it were not for the merger).
0% chance the FTC gets the PI overturned. The appellate court will have to go against its own past interpretation to change decades of precedents and case law. It might happen one day, but they're not going to do it in this particular case (too much risk the current Supreme Court will rule against merger arbitrage in its entirety if MS appeals the PI).

Edit: actually now that I think about it it's probably non-zero chance that the appellate judges extend the RTO to Sunday or Monday morning while they work the weekend on deciding the appeal.
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💥
 
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