MarkMe2525
Banned
I mean, I feel like you already have your answer. Majority of the shareholders want the cash. The market is never a given and they have an opportunity to cash out. This is all facilitated through the sale.
Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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Balducci30
Member
First the CMA block had some great reactions - then the FTC getting denied had amazing reactions. I don't think it'll happen in a million years - but if Activision walked I would laugh my ass off
People really freak out over this stuff
People really freak out over this stuff
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James Sawyer Ford
Banned
They wanted the cash in 2022 when there was a 50% premium to market value
18 months later, that premium has evaporated. Unlikely if it came to a vote they'd make the same deal
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woahwoahwoah
Neo Member
I don't know how you convince ABK's shareholders to go through another 18 month regulatory process with a different company when the current deal is weeks away from completing
would be really funny though
would be really funny though
Balducci30
Member
Also quick question - of the poll results - does them completing the deal due to a divestiture in the UK count as the "approved with structural changes"?
gothmog
Gold Member
Bonus points if Bobby sold Sony COD exclusivity for 10 years on top of that.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
The reason why it evaporated is because right off the bat when the deal got announced the stock jumped from $65 to $81. Which is about the mid way point to $95.
It dangled down to the $70s for a year due to uncertainty of approval and only recently clawed back to the $80s (and lately the $90s) as news comes out the deal is getting closer and closer and FTC lost etc...
If market sentiment was Activision is so undervalued the whole time, the stock would had naturally gravitated to $90 no problem like back to its 2021 days. But it only hit $90 the past week and year and a half after the Jan 2022 announcement.
I totally get you're trying to make it look like a bad deal hoping MS doesn't get Activision as it's got to be killing you MS own COD going forward, but lets not try to skew financials and stock price without context.
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
In case you haven't followed the broader market, the Nasdaq is up nearly 50% this year.
If you think the only thing increasing the price of ATVI is the deal with Microsoft, you're completely delusional. And as I've already mentioned previously, EA stock is trading at a higher valuation on the open market.
There are a multitude of reasons to believe ATVI would be worth north of $80 without the deal going through, such as what is being priced by options markets
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demigod
Member
Dumb take huh. Your take is even dumber if you think ActiBliz is worth the same now compared to last year. You are smarter than this, i hope.
I can't handle these dumb takes.
Bobby is not stupid enough to leave 67b buyout for a measly 3b. That is not how business works.
The guy will get 400+m from this deal. He is not that stupid to leave the deal, while it's finishing line.
Even CMA is with them at this stage.
Please don't makes these dumb takes. You guys are smarter than this.
cya
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
And YTD, Sony stock is +20%, EA is+15% and TTWO is +50%. And some of those gains happened the past week when this MS/activision deal looks like will close.
In the past 52 weeks, Sony is +8%, EA is +5% and TTWO is +15%.
Since Jan 2022 when the deal was announced, Sony is actually down -20%, EA is flat, TTWO is down -7%.
So whats the point about Nasdaq being +50% YTD when the key other gaming companies I listed above since Jan 2022 are doing crap. Activision is going from about $61 (then) to $93 (right now) which is +50%. Sounds like a deal to me.
Again, you are cherry picking numbers trying to make the deal look lousy.
Who knew every company in the Nasdaq index had to all up the same %. lool
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James Sawyer Ford
Banned
Sony isn't a pure gaming company and none of those other companies had a short term scandal significantly depress the price. EA is back up around all time highs, so ATVI should be as well unless there's some other idiosyncratic uncertainty surround it's business. Before ATVI's stock collapsed it peaked around $95/share
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I really don't think they are. It's pure cringe.
I can't handle these dumb takes.
Bobby is not stupid enough to leave 67b buyout for a measly 3b. That is not how business works.
The guy will get 400+m from this deal. He is not that stupid to leave the deal, while it's finishing line.
Even CMA is with them at this stage.
Please don't makes these dumb takes. You guys are smarter than this.
cya
bitbydeath
Member
All we know is that discussions are ongoing so it wasn't an immediate agreement between the two parties to keep the status quo.
Just what comes out of it is anyone's guess.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
It's only more profitable "IF" consumers want it. You say they couldn't care less if they can't notice the difference. BUT THAT'S THE POINT! With today's tech they can notice the difference. Digital Foundary wouldn't exist as a company if millions of gamers didn't care about the quality of the tech in their games.
In general, most things are going to the cloud. I work in IT too so I'm managing with the change. Most are good, but some are bad. But gaming is different.
Yeah okay man. I'm telling you it'll be a clear and obvious fact that the majority of console and PC gamers DO NOT want a streaming-only system for next-gen. I don't know what you guys are smoking but the tech isn't there now to do it. And in 5 years the tech will just be good enough to be supplemental.
Not sure why some of you guys are debating this. It's basically "undebatable" lol.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
My rubbish wish is simply for MS to increase their market share in the console space (relative to the last generation) by the end of this generation and to have at least 40 million GamePass subscribers. Why is that asking too much?
havoc00
Member
Let's go xbro ima be posted up at every GameStop tomorrow promoting this deal and the potential this gives us x chads hope you do the same in ur state grass roots is the foundation of huge plants
PaintTinJr
Member
I initially thought it was odd that the agreement wasn't trivial to get this deal over the line, but I think the judge encourage and marking a clear mechanism for Sony to challenge the CMA's final order of their backdoor deal presumably means that an extension has to factor in the duration of such legal challenges too and the appreciation ATVI shares would see from the beginning of the deal 18months ago, and potentially 12-18months from now which is probably the upper limit on how long this could be contested in UK courts.
Fabieter
Member
Yea avb is at a discount for 95 bucks and and I couldn't believe investors were all in for 95$. I mean sure at the time it looked like it could drop further but come on.
IFireflyl
Gold Member
Actually, you said that the reason for the objection was B.S. This was the post I originally responded to:
You said that the objection itself was B.S. I explained that multiple regulatory bodies had the same objections. This was your response:
This is shifting the goal post, which is what you have been doing ever since my original response to you. First the objection itself was B.S. Then it wasn't the objection, but that the CMA would dare to require a remedy to address the objection. Then you moved the goal post again by saying that all regulatory bodies have to have the exact same objections and/or outcome, otherwise it is B.S. Here's that post for you:
You need to stop shilling for Microsoft. I'm all for difference of opinion, but when your arguments shift with every rebuttal, that shows your argument has no merit. You're arguing just to argue at this point. You're not in the right here, and since your stance is ever-shifting, you'll never be in the right.
And also the people that are so pro-acquisition that they act like a fool. Currently, that is you and the hate-boner you have for the CMA (or, apparently, any regulatory body that is anti-acquisition). I disagree with the CMA's decision to seemingly backtrack and allow this acquisition through, but I'm not going to act like a child and pretend that the CMA and the EC are idiots just because I disagree with their decision. And if I were to do that, I would hope that I wouldn't double down on my childishness whenever someone points that out to me.
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
according to Michael "always right" Pachter Game Pass is going to have 100M subscribers by the end of the year. and you can take that one to the bank
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I 100% agree with you here. There's just no way the CMA would be acting like this if they didn't know what MS wanted to do from here.
You actually think the share price will remain at $94 if the deal falls through?
There's a reason why the shareholders were enthusiastic to sell. Because it's nowhere near a sustained $95 share price. Kotick was already over the worst of the scandal when the vote was held, anyway.
bitbydeath
Member
Do they?
After FTC lost, MS offered a solution to the CMA. CMA then shot it down and said to come back with something that is closer to what they wanted (structural change)
I don't think they know what MS will offer in that regard yet.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Yes, she even backed up the regulatory bodies by saying "consoles will be extinct" and everyone will be on a sub service (cloud).
It's a weak argument until it isn't, eh?
I will never understand Judge Corley's ruling.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Ar¢tos
Member
They might not know, because... reasons.... or.... rea$on$...
I'm surprised that after all that time blocking the deal and MS not presenting this new unknown restructured deal when CMA stated their concerns, after a weekend the CMA suddenly is desperate to stop the CAT appeal to hear MS new sales pitch.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Ass of Can Whooping has been really qui..... oh no. Oh God! Where is he?! Who was supposed to be watching him??
BlueLyria
Member
Oh shit he's alive!
Anyway, what the fuck is going on in the uk rn? My brain is too small
Zheph
Member
It's gonna rain again today it seems
Mr Moose
Member
I just had a nice cup of tea while listening to the rain. I'll keep you updated.
BlueLyria
Member
Thank ya'll, I've been rushing to finish a Bl2 playthrough before it's removed from PS Plus Extra and I gotta move to my PC so I haven't kept up with the UK
Alex Scott
Member
I think he will extend it. 400 million dollar payout is guaranteed at this point.
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Microsoft will fail to achieve their goals if they do achieve their goals but fall short of your own targets?
There's no way MS approached CAT along with the CMA for an extension without first securing Activision's commitment for an extension.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yeah, Bobby will agree to an extension. He may ask for more money, but he will likely stay.
However, if MS/CMA hadn't paused the appeal, he'd be looking at a very uncertain period of 3-6 months. In that case, I believed he'd have walked away. This is now just 6 weeks, so I don't think it's that much of an issue for him to bide his time.
On the other hand, if the CAT judge rejects the extension, then, yeah, he may walk away.
However, if MS/CMA hadn't paused the appeal, he'd be looking at a very uncertain period of 3-6 months. In that case, I believed he'd have walked away. This is now just 6 weeks, so I don't think it's that much of an issue for him to bide his time.
On the other hand, if the CAT judge rejects the extension, then, yeah, he may walk away.
Makoto-Yuki
Banned
What's the latest? Is it going to be announced today? Is it scrapped? Is it being extended?
Bernoulli
M2 slut
When is the decision for the extension?
Banjo64
cumsessed
I think the CMA have to submit their evidence (re why the previous order should be scrubbed) by Thursday. I'm guessing we'll get a decision on whether they can go with the August 29 plan by Friday.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
I didn't pay a lot of attention yesterday, but I think the judge gave them a conditional adjournment, gave them until Thursday to satisfy him, the MS judge I think said that they will submit documents by today 5 PM.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong with these details.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
But the decision to extend is today
I really don't understand the CMA, all they had to do is keep the block and not negotiate and Activision would have walked away
Astray
Member
A few days won't be such a big problem imo.
ToadMan
Member
The CMA didn't want the appeal in July - they said that from the outset of the CAT process - so maybe they're happy to pitch for a delay right now and see what MS puts on the table. If they don't like MS offer then it works in their favor to have delayed things.
Ultimately they're not there to block the deal, they're there to get consumers the best outcome, but this type of negotiation should have been done 4 months ago. However the ends justify the means I suppose but that was why yesterday's CMC was so heated in the end.
Ar¢tos
Member
Get ready for a plot twist!
(otherwise it would be boring...)
intheinbetween
Member
Extended most likely
PaintTinJr
Member
I personally think MR Beard has proposed to the CMA that they were going to get very close to appease the concerns of the CMA, massively increasing the risk of the CMA losing when Microsoft would appeal. Probably acting as an authority on the law and telling them there was automatic grounds for "substantial material difference" or "special reasons" and the CMA have considered the optics of Microsoft's structural remedy offer as a CMA win - along with probably a threat of budget cut by the PM/Chancellor and fear of embarrassment like the FTC - only for the judge to correct them on two aspects of the law. The first being that the CMA's remit is for them to determine what is different or special, and that just because they claim to be in agreement with Microsoft to look again, is not enough to cancel Microsoft's appeal without the difference/special evidence of the CMA to give the judge someone to hang a flawed decision on.
The judge seeing that CoD still being owned by Microsoft at the end of the merger is the same merger, when he'll easily understand their ownership of Windows, Xbox and Azure, is unchanged. In a best case scenario for Microsoft if they don't get the adjournment is the judge feels the CMA have failed the public and restarts the process from scratch.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
It was the CMA lawyer that wanted today by 5pm but judge said no
X-Wing
Member
CMA is just proving that everyone accusing them of being unfair was wrong, which is good. If Microsoft can build a proposal that they are comfortable with, why would they block it?
MasterCornholio
Member
Why does that matter at this point?
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