Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
M1987 said:
He seriously can't be that dumb
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Serious The Four GIF by Diddy
 
HeisenbergFX4 said:
Naturally extends?

Wait What GIF
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The terms of the acquisition agreement has provisions for how the sides can terminate the deal at and after 0:00 July 19.

The deal doesn't self terminate, it takes either MS or ATVI to choose to terminate the deal.

I think that's the "natural" continuation he's referring to - poor choice of words yet again.

However allowing the termination time to pass without a binding extension is risky - either side could then terminate at any moment without notice.

So one would hope a binding agreement to extend is made public before midnight tonight.
 
M1987 said:
They said yesterday they wasn't going to close over the CMA,so I imagine the fines would be brutal if they did
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I've read so much about the power and integrity of this vaunted CMA. Then they essentially begged to postpone a case because they felt MS would make them an offer that would make the entire case go away. At this point I could see them issuing a fine that MS pays with Monopoly money and CMA ends up accepting.
 
ToadMan said:
The terms of the acquisition agreement has provisions for how the sides can terminate the deal at and after 0:00 July 19.

The deal doesn't self terminate, it takes either MS or ATVI to choose to terminate the deal.

I think that's the "natural" continuation he's referring to - poor choice of words yet again.

However allowing the termination time to pass without a binding extension is risky - either side could then terminate at any moment without notice.

So one would hope a binding agreement to extend is made public before midnight tonight.
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Pixis said that they could have some temporary written agreement signed (or something along the lines) instead of extension.
 
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ToadMan said:
The terms of the acquisition agreement has provisions for how the sides can terminate the deal at and after 0:00 July 19.

The deal doesn't self terminate, it takes either MS or ATVI to choose to terminate the deal.

I think that's the "natural" continuation he's referring to - poor choice of words yet again.

However allowing the termination time to pass without a binding extension is risky - either side could then terminate at any moment without notice.

So one would hope a binding agreement to extend is made public before midnight tonight.
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With so much talk of the need for "certainty" in the CAT CMCs, the natural position for company CEOs in such a position would be for them to simultaneously cancel the deal, would it not,? otherwise I would have thought they've not met their legal responsibility to their shareholders and the stock market. to provide certainty.
 
How am I re-exhausted of this again. Such a roller coaster...like I'm in, then I'm tuned out. After the hearing was over yesterday I tuned out. Now I'm learning there's a chance the deal won't be extended in a binding agreement. I'm tuned in again.
 
PaintTinJr said:
With so much talk of the need for "certainty" in the CAT CMCs, the natural position for company CEOs in such a position would be for them to simultaneously cancel the deal, would it not,? otherwise I would have thought they've not met their legal responsibility to their shareholders and the stock market. to provide certainty.
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The way things are looking, it seems more likely than not that the deal will be approved by the last "regulator." Now if they walk without giving MS a couple more months to finish, how much is really more likely than not?

Is it more likely than not that cancelling the deal will result in less than 3 Billion lost in stock value?
Is it more likely than not that they could sell to someone else, and get the deal approved, within say 18-24 months?
Is it more likely than not that they have another console / PC game that will be a big hit in the next 18-24 months, which isn't COD?
Is it more likely than not that they can continue with the annual COD cadence without stumbling at some point?

This story has been a rollercoaster for the ages so who knows what AB does. I'm just unable to put much stock in the notion that this deal ends over a couple more months of uncertainty. There's too much uncertainty either way in my view.
 
dotnotbot said:
Pixis said that they could have some temporary written agreement signed (or something along the lines) instead of extension.
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Well that amounts to the same thing. They just need a piece of paper with signatures that says neither side will terminate the deal until <date>. All other conditions remain.

I think that such an agreement hasn't been made public already is intriguing… it communicates a sense of hesitation presumably on the part of ATVI.

But I guess they'll get around to it - it's the beginning of the work day on the west coast so there's plenty of time.

I imagine we'll hear about it via ATVI and maybe a shareholder targeted news release on the topic.
 
dotnotbot said:
Pixis said that they could have some temporary written agreement signed (or something along the lines) instead of extension.
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That would be strange considering just yesterday it was reported that ABK and MS are working on extending the deal. So why do that while also having a temporary written agreement. Did he provide any source for that?
 
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PaintTinJr said:
With so much talk of the need for "certainty" in the CAT CMCs, the natural position for company CEOs in such a position would be for them to simultaneously cancel the deal, would it not,? otherwise I would have thought they've not met their legal responsibility to their shareholders and the stock market. to provide certainty.
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I honestly don't know, I don't even have much of an opinion on that at the moment.

I can see both sides in this - yeah ATVI may feel they're worth more now but that is offset by the shitstorm that would accompany them pulling out at 00:00 tonight.

You'd have to know Bobby and the board and maybe their internal lawyers to really know if a deal termination is in their minds or even something they've considered at any time during this. Even Phil and the ATVI merger lawyers wouldn't know - ATVI would have to keep such considerations very private in order to have a hope of claiming the $3bn.

So speculation here is just that - total speculation.

The only feeling I have is that they are leaving it late to publicly announce an extension - it does imply some hesitancy. But that could just be my feeling as an onlooker, and if I was privy to the working of the ATVI board I'd probably see I'm totally wrong to interpret this as any hesitancy for the deal.

MS has covered all the bases one way or the other - it's difficult to imagine they'd fumble the deal over something like this.
 
mayham2199 said:
That would be strange considering just yesterday it was reported that ABK and MS are working on extending the deal. So why do that while also having a temporary written agreement. Did he provide any source for that?
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He said that like a week ago when people were discussing what happens once deadline passes.
 
NickFire said:
The way things are looking, it seems more likely than not that the deal will be approved by the last "regulator." Now if they walk without giving MS a couple more months to finish, how much is really more likely than not?

Is it more likely than not that cancelling the deal will result in less than 3 Billion lost in stock value?
Is it more likely than not that they could sell to someone else, and get the deal approved, within say 18-24 months?
Is it more likely than not that they have another console / PC game that will be a big hit in the next 18-24 months, which isn't COD?
Is it more likely than not that they can continue with the annual COD cadence without stumbling at some point?

This story has been a rollercoaster for the ages so who knows what AB does. I'm just unable to put much stock in the notion that this deal ends over a couple more months of uncertainty. There's too much uncertainty either way in my view.
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I would say the judge singling the CMA to provide his evidence on many of the tests for the conditional adjournment along with him signalling a clear path for 3rd parties to appeal against the CMA's backdoor final decision - that could add 18months if he sends them back to phase 1, or 12months in appeals - along with him zoning in on Microsoft effectively not getting CoD if it is a new restructured merger, and his need for Sony's reasoning to sign now - not being caused by the CMA colluding because of the FTC loss, when they've put in the public domain they didn't want another deal, just a cancelled merger - is a lot of things Bobby and Microsoft can't control or influence positively for them.

In Bobby's position, being decisive - like he has been as top captain of industry(money making) - I think he might walk.
 
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ToadMan said:
I honestly don't know, I don't even have much of an opinion on that at the moment.

I can see both sides in this - yeah ATVI may feel they're worth more now but that is offset by the shitstorm that would accompany them pulling out at 00:00 tonight.

You'd have to know Bobby and the board and maybe their internal lawyers to really know if a deal termination is in their minds or even something they've considered at any time during this. Even Phil and the ATVI merger lawyers wouldn't know - ATVI would have to keep such considerations very private in order to have a hope of claiming the $3bn.

So speculation here is just that - total speculation.

The only feeling I have is that they are leaving it late to publicly announce an extension - it does imply some hesitancy. But that could just be my feeling as an onlooker, and if I was privy to the working of the ATVI board I'd probably see I'm totally wrong to interpret this as any hesitancy for the deal.

MS has covered all the bases one way or the other - it's difficult to imagine they'd fumble the deal over something like this.
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The read I got off of Lord Graben's body language was that the deal probably wasn't happening, when they didn't get the adjournment by the end of the CMC with a date for a decision before the 18th to close, and I do think he would probably know.
 
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PaintTinJr said:
The read I got off of Lord Graben's body language was that the deal probably wasn't happening, when they didn't get the adjournment by the end of the CMC with a date for a decision before the 18th to close, and I do think he would probably know.
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I would honestly be very surprised to see ABK walk. The only reason I think it could happen is because no extension has been signed and IMO this should have been signed last week at the latest.
 
The way MS and Bobby were claiming the deal was dead if not done by today gave birth to this narrative that ABK might walk, that and the $3B. They were lying, nobody is walking away, just FUD to trick the FTC and keep the courts on a fast track.
 
Kilau said:
The way MS and Bobby were claiming the deal was dead if not done by today gave birth to this narrative that ABK might walk, that and the $3B. They were lying, nobody is walking away, just FUD to trick the FTC and keep the courts on a fast track.
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Even in front of the CAT judge Beard was stressing how time was so incredibly limited due to it being the 17th. Hilarious how these lawyers work.
 
Kilau said:
The way MS and Bobby were claiming the deal was dead if not done by today gave birth to this narrative that ABK might walk, that and the $3B. They were lying, nobody is walking away, just FUD to trick the FTC and keep the courts on a fast track.
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Are you sure about that ?

artworks-000150369477-5n4osm-t500x500.jpg
 
ToadMan said:
I honestly don't know, I don't even have much of an opinion on that at the moment.

I can see both sides in this - yeah ATVI may feel they're worth more now but that is offset by the shitstorm that would accompany them pulling out at 00:00 tonight.

You'd have to know Bobby and the board and maybe their internal lawyers to really know if a deal termination is in their minds or even something they've considered at any time during this. Even Phil and the ATVI merger lawyers wouldn't know - ATVI would have to keep such considerations very private in order to have a hope of claiming the $3bn.

So speculation here is just that - total speculation.

The only feeling I have is that they are leaving it late to publicly announce an extension - it does imply some hesitancy. But that could just be my feeling as an onlooker, and if I was privy to the working of the ATVI board I'd probably see I'm totally wrong to interpret this as any hesitancy for the deal.

MS has covered all the bases one way or the other - it's difficult to imagine they'd fumble the deal over something like this.
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Considering the CAT judge wrapped up yesterday they could have announced an extension yesterday, there's no cards left to play apart from seeing how the CMA situation goes, so I don't see the value in leaving it to the last minute. I don't doubt that's what's happening though.
 
Kilau said:
The way MS and Bobby were claiming the deal was dead if not done by today gave birth to this narrative that ABK might walk, that and the $3B. They were lying, nobody is walking away, just FUD to trick the FTC and keep the courts on a fast track.
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how dare they do whatever needs to be done to complete their merger.
 
PaintTinJr said:
In Bobby's position, being decisive - like he has been as top captain of industry(money making) - I think he might walk.
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Of course you do. With the CMA and MS hashing out terms to get the deal through, Bobby walking is the anti-acquisition crowds last hope. It makes sense that they would latch onto that idea. It's confirmation bias at work.

Every speedbump in this deal as been portrayed as "the straw that breaks the camels back", yet here we are. How many final bosses are there? Is it possible that all these things that you, or other anti-acquistioners, see as deal breakers are really just things that need to be tweaked to satisfy the parties involved. It sure does seem like that is the case as this deal moves towards the finish line.

I stated earlier that everyone is entitled to a viewpoint and opinion, but when these consistently are shown to be off the mark, it really doesn't lend much credibility to the next big "deal breaker" that is proposed in this thread. Doesn't it just make more sense to concede that maybe non of us are qualified to be even discussing this beyond a casual level. I for sure am no expert, and knowing this I for sure wouldn't be making such strong affirmations regarding the final outcome of this process.
 
ToadMan said:
The terms of the acquisition agreement has provisions for how the sides can terminate the deal at and after 0:00 July 19.

The deal doesn't self terminate, it takes either MS or ATVI to choose to terminate the deal.

I think that's the "natural" continuation he's referring to - poor choice of words yet again.

However allowing the termination time to pass without a binding extension is risky - either side could then terminate at any moment without notice.

So one would hope a binding agreement to extend is made public before midnight tonight.
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So hypothetically, there could either be an announcement of an extension today or no announcement but no termination?
 
Bernoulli said:
*xbox ambassador

HgXwml6.png

LP27kOk.jpg
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Funny story. I actually joined this cuz I thought it was like the Nintendo Ambassadors. A friend of mine some time ago became one and they sent her a free Wii and games regularly. I just assumed Xbox was similar.

I joined the discord and immediately regretted my decision.

Let me put it to you like this. It was kinda like me as a straight man, walking into a gay bar unknowingly...ordering a coupla drinks to loosen up to hit the dance floor. Go to the dance floor and immediately realize where you are.

I left that discord so fast.
 
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Jigsaah said:
Funny story. I actually joined this cuz I thought it was like the Nintendo Ambassadors. A friend of mine some time ago became one and they sent her a free Wii and games regularly. I just assumed Xbox was similar.

I joined the discord and immediately regretted my decision.

Let me put it to you like this. It was kinda me as a straight man, walking into a gay bar unknowingly...ordering a coupla drinks to loosen up to hit the dance floor. Go to the dance floor and immediately realize where you are.

I left that discord so fast.
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Similar experience. I thought it was for receiving special discounts and MS reward points. Once I realized what the deal really was, I noped out of their pretty quick.
 
Topher said:
If you want to say a politician stepped in and influenced what was supposed to be a supposedly independent government regulatory body then you are making my point for me. Fact is that if this wasn't Microsoft and some small company facing the exact same situation then whatever politician you are making excuses for would not have even bothered. So yeah, very hard to accept any of these naive arguments. What you are basically saying is that politicians rightfully subverted the CMA.......and somehow for the sake of "it's the right thing to do".

I find that laughable.
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And this is precisely the point I made in earlier posts, which is where some of the unpredictability in these things lie.

Anytime you're dealing with acquisitions of this magnitude, and corporations this large, it will become political. It most certainly will become more than just "what's good for consumers." It will, most certainly, have other variables at play that the public would not be privy to. It's no longer just a simple "X is bad for consumers because Y has X amount of market share", or any such narratives. It becomes more nuanced. It becomes more "what's best for our country", "what's best for our country's interests", "what's best for our political or economical interests", etc.

I made that point, and was mocked and heckled. Others made similar points, and were mocked and heckled. I say all of that to say, with deals of this size/scope, we never see all the moving parts, and thus, can never make perfect predictions. There's so much room for error, and we should keep that in mind, and not be quick to gang up on, belittle or dismiss other people's opinions or insights, despite our biases.
 
ToadMan said:
The terms of the acquisition agreement has provisions for how the sides can terminate the deal at and after 0:00 July 19.

The deal doesn't self terminate, it takes either MS or ATVI to choose to terminate the deal.

I think that's the "natural" continuation he's referring to - poor choice of words yet again.

However allowing the termination time to pass without a binding extension is risky - either side could then terminate at any moment without notice.

So one would hope a binding agreement to extend is made public before midnight tonight.
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This is my understanding as well. That said, I see no reason for either part to want to terminate this deal. Even if they cautioned that "time is running out"; that's simply a play to push the courts or regulatory bodies to keep things in motion, as it serves their interests to close the deal sooner rather than later. But, neither side (I think) wants this deal to crumble. They both have a lot to get out of it; Kotick and his people want to get paid. And MS wants to expand its reach and business; those two desires aren't going to change. So, as long as they have the same mutual interests (and they surely do) this deal is not going to be abandoned.
 
The Tourmaline Gorilla said:
And this is precisely the point I made in earlier posts, which is where some of the unpredictability in these things lie.

Anytime you're dealing with acquisitions of this magnitude, and corporations this large, it will become political. It most certainly will become more than just "what's good for consumers." It will, most certainly, have other variables at play that the public would not be privy to. It's no longer just a simple "X is bad for consumers because Y has X amount of market share", or any such narratives. It becomes more nuanced. It becomes more "what's best for our country", "what's best for our country's interests", "what's best for our political or economical interests", etc.

I made that point, and was mocked and heckled. Others made similar points, and were mocked and heckled. I say all of that to say, with deals of this size/scope, we never see all the moving parts, and thus, can never make perfect predictions. There's so much room for error, and we should keep that in mind, and not be quick to gang up on, belittle or dismiss other people's opinions or insights, despite our biases.
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Very well said and applies no matter which side of the fence you are on regarding the acquisition.

Topher said:
I'm not going to read your whining about people disagreeing with you again. Get over it.
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You should give it a read. It's not antagonistic and has some good points that apply whether you are for or against the deal.
 
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MarkMe2525 said:
Of course you do. With the CMA and MS hashing out terms to get the deal through, Bobby walking is the anti-acquisition crowds last hope. It makes sense that they would latch onto that idea. It's confirmation bias at work.

Every speedbump in this deal as been portrayed as "the straw that breaks the camels back", yet here we are. How many final bosses are there? Is it possible that all these things that you, or other anti-acquistioners, see as deal breakers are really just things that need to be tweaked to satisfy the parties involved. It sure does seem like that is the case as this deal moves towards the finish line.

I stated earlier that everyone is entitled to a viewpoint and opinion, but when these consistently are shown to be off the mark, it really doesn't lend much credibility to the next big "deal breaker" that is proposed in this thread. Doesn't it just make more sense to concede that maybe non of us are qualified to be even discussing this beyond a casual level. I for sure am no expert, and knowing this I for sure wouldn't be making such strong affirmations regarding the final outcome of this process.
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Maybe I'm reading Bobby - with his plastic surgery wrong - but he handles himself like any of my friends in the past that had a penchant for gambling and winning, telling people that might bet £100 on two ants moving would cashout for $3b on a days work, every day of the week for the ego hit, even gambling other people's money where they didn't get the winnings.

But maybe that isn't Bobby
 
Banjo64 said:
So hypothetically, there could either be an announcement of an extension today or no announcement but no termination?
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As far as I know they won't be able to complete the acquisition today because it's blocked by the CMA.

The deal said that if not completed by today, the deal is over and MS has to pay ABK another penalty, in this case of $3B.

But after that they could try to make another acquisition deal starting from scratch, with some changes to appeal the CMA. They would repeat most of the process again and if in the new investigation -which could take like a year- the CMA is happy with the changes (they hinted that may be the case, I assume they have to check out their deal with Sony) then they would be able to complete it.

I did read somewhere -not sure if true- that the CMA is happy with their Sony deal and could allow them complete the acquisition now but to keep ABK independent outside MS control until they complete all the paperwork of the new investigation.
 
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The Tourmaline Gorilla said:
And this is precisely the point I made in earlier posts, which is where some of the unpredictability in these things lie.

Anytime you're dealing with acquisitions of this magnitude, and corporations this large, it will become political. It most certainly will become more than just "what's good for consumers." It will, most certainly, have other variables at play that the public would not be privy to. It's no longer just a simple "X is bad for consumers because Y has X amount of market share", or any such narratives. It becomes more nuanced. It becomes more "what's best for our country", "what's best for our country's interests", "what's best for our political or economical interests", etc.

I made that point, and was mocked and heckled. Others made similar points, and were mocked and heckled. I say all of that to say, with deals of this size/scope, we never see all the moving parts, and thus, can never make perfect predictions. There's so much room for error, and we should keep that in mind, and not be quick to gang up on, belittle or dismiss other people's opinions or insights, despite our biases.
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Here We Go Again GIF
 
Topher said:
I'm not going to read your whining about people disagreeing with you again. Get over it.
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It wasn't about people disagreeing with me.

You know, I absolutely abhor trying to have a civil discussion with people, when only one party is trying to be civil, or reasonable. And my post wasn't directed at you; it was a general post, simply to remind people that we need(ed) to continue to be civil, and that our opinions or understandings of the matter might be limited to (political) factors we are not aware of. Just a reminder for us to have some humility when dealing with others.
 
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