Analysts expected Switch 2 to sell between 6-8 million units at launch (More than PS4, PS5, or Switch launches)

Walter Matthau said:
Why not use a closer comparison?

The cheapest model for Steam Deck is $399. Same storage, smaller 60hz LCD screen, no DLSS, worse Wifi, lesser GPU, digital only. Docking station is $79 and doesn't come with controllers that have next gen haptics, gyroscope sensors, NFC reader, and can function as mice. Valve established these prices well before threats of trade wars.

So.. $480 for much less than what you get from super greedy Nintendo. Meanwhile, no-one here would dream of giving Nintendo kudos for allowing you to use your existing Switch accessories on the Switch 2 and for keeping the price NSO stable while improving its offering. They are giving free upgrades on some games (Mario Odyssey, Pokemon, Echoes of Wisdom, etc.). Not every single move they're making is an attempt to drain wallets.


The complaints about Mario Kart World being $80 are 100% valid. Anyone complaining about it is completely in the right for being pissed off or nervous about it. Sony introduced us to $70 games when the PS5 launched and many of us expected Nintendo to finally catch up with the current standard, not surpass it. I'm hoping this will be an uncommon price point for games, but Nintendo hasn't done much to reassure us that it isn't beyond pricing DK at $70.
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We were being kind to Steam and the Steam Deck, since Switch 2 will make a road apple out of it in it's first month.
 
Hyet said:
But Nintendo has been hadling this like ass. The prices, the fake physical games, the focus on Microsoft Teams screen share, the pay to use C button the pack in tech demo that's neither packed in or free, the crazy priced accesories... As soon as the honeymoon ends (and that's a s soon as people get tired of Mario Kart...) I think any momentum they have will hit a wall. Then it's on DK to lift spirits but not everyone is fully on board with that game and many people have reservations about it.
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If the first brand new Mario Kart since 2014 behave like the predecessor then the "soon" you've written will consists of a very long stretch of time.

Pl5w5lI.jpeg


Mario Kart World effect on hardware penetration will continue over time and be reinforced by further first-party games which Nintendo have scheduled over the year and beyond, be them NS2 exclusive or NS2 Edition (and obviously third-party software like Cyberpunk 2077 will also lend a hand).

  • Mario Kart World | 2025-06-05
  • Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour | 2025-06-05 [eShop]
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025-06-05
  • The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025-06-05
  • Donkey Kong Bananza | 2025-07-17
  • Super Mario Party Jamboree – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Jamboree TV | 2025-07-24
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Star-Crossed World | 2025-08-28
  • Drag x Drive | Summer 2025
  • Metroid Prime 4: Beyond – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025
  • Kirby Air Riders | 2025
  • Pokemon Legends: Z-A – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | Late 2025
  • Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment | Winter 2025
 
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Yeah it'll sell gangbusters. The $80 price of Mario Kart doesn't matter to most people because they're just gonna buy it in the bundle anyway (and so get it cheaper). Most people don't care about the precedent it sets for the industry in the future.
 
Celine said:
If the first brand new Mario Kart since 2014 behave like the predecessor then the "soon" you've written will consists of a very long stretch of time.

Pl5w5lI.jpeg


Mario Kart World effect on hardware penetration will continue over time and be reinforced by further first-party games which Nintendo have scheduled over the year and beyond, be them NS2 exclusive or NS2 Edition (and obviously third-party software like Cyberpunk 2077 will also lend a hand).

  • Mario Kart World | 2025-06-05
  • Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour | 2025-06-05 [eShop]
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025-06-05
  • The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025-06-05
  • Donkey Kong Bananza | 2025-07-17
  • Super Mario Party Jamboree – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Jamboree TV | 2025-07-24
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Star-Crossed World | 2025-08-28
  • Drag x Drive | Summer 2025
  • Metroid Prime 4: Beyond – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025
  • Kirby Air Riders | 2025
  • Pokemon Legends: Z-A – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | Late 2025
  • Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment | Winter 2025
Click to expand...
I know how much MK sells, but that's not what I'm saying. Post the playtime chart!

Also, the lineup is not super hot imo. Following your list:
  • Mario Kart World | 2025-06-05 → Looks great but you can't play just that
  • Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour | 2025-06-05 [eShop] → ultra low value, overpriced, overall unappealing in its current state
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025-06-05 → old game
  • The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025-06-05 → old game
  • Donkey Kong Bananza | 2025-07-17 → looks cool but not everyone is fully on board with it, as I said many people have some reservations about this
  • Super Mario Party Jamboree – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Jamboree TV | 2025-07-24 → not a new game, requires 60€ camera to work + 20€ content addon.
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Star-Crossed World | 2025-08-28 → old game for the most part
  • Drag x Drive | Summer 2025 → if this was a Steam release by an unknown studio instead of an NS2 exclusive it wouln't break 500 wishlists
  • Metroid Prime 4: Beyond – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025 → Will be great, but it's a NS1 game. Metroid is sadly (inexplicably) a niche series
  • Kirby Air Riders | 2025 → cool, but it's the second cute mascot arcadey racing game from Nintendo in less than 6 months
  • Pokemon Legends: Z-A – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | Late 2025 → looks fun despite graphics, but it's a NS1 game design wise.
  • Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment | Winter 2025 → We know exactly what to expect from this one and it's nice that the story is canon this time but it's preaching to the choir. Hardcore Zelda fans that appreciate this kind of game already got the system preordered.
I don't think this lineup is going to drive too many sales. That's why I think they need a follow up direct.
 
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You don't have to be an analyst to know that the Switch 2 is going to sell incredibly well, just as Mochizuki's products vary depending on whether it's Nintendo or Sony.
 
Hyet said:
I know how much MK sells, but that's not what I'm saying. Post the playtime chart!
Click to expand...
Whenever NS2 owners will get their fill of MKW (it will differ from person to person and they will still likely keep picking up the game over time due to the series good replayability factor) other games will await them to be played if they desire so (these customers have already accomplished the most burdensome decision to enter the platform ecosystem that is purchasing the expensive hardware).
Just like Nintendo scheduled the first-party releases on NS1 on a monthly/quarterly basis to not let any quarter to be uncovered the same will repeat on NS2.
Meanhwile third-party support will increase over time lending a hand [to maintain momentum].
 
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Banjo64 said:
Legs are all that matters.
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now*

Being a huge success at launch would have mattered greatly if it did not happen. Lucky it did, so now the Nintendo hater community can move the goalposts. Don't worry though, spoiler alert, Nintendo invented legs.
 
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Zuzu said:
Yeah it'll sell gangbusters. The $80 price of Mario Kart doesn't matter to most people because they're just gonna buy it in the bundle anyway (and so get it cheaper). Most people don't care about the precedent it sets for the industry in the future.
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This can't be emphasized enough. The $500 bundle will continue through the holidays, then next year it'll cost the full $80 for everyone. This is Nintendo's ACT NOW! ploy...and it'll work. Get ready for utter devastation, haters.
 
The people I know IRL that normally would buy it are passing on it for now. They all have a steam deck though.

I usually get Nintendo hardware about a year later. Never compels me enough at launch.
 
Hyet said:
I don't think this lineup is going to drive too many sales. That's why I think they need a follow up direct.
Click to expand...
I'm sure they'll have something prior to the holidays. They usually only have two major directs in a year, but I guess they'll have three this year because of the random one they just did in March with Rhythm Heaven and Tomodachi Life to wrap up what's coming to the Switch.

Heimdall_Xtreme said:
I wonder how many new threads a week are talking about the Nintendo Switch 2?
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Didn't you just create one yesterday?
 
Hyet said:
It should have been a Battle Royale.

ARMSmageddon.
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The core mechanics were certainly strong enough. Sales though...

Back on topic: I'm curious to see how the increased prices, especially when it comes to software, affect the overall adoption of Switch 2 consoles and games. Sure, this may just be the product of inflation, and prices may be rising across the board, but doesn't that also mean that people will have less to spend on fun purchases? The asking price may be "fair" (or fairer than people are giving it credit for), but that doesn't change the short term optics or the long term impact on consumer spending.
 
DeepEnigma said:
Weird take.
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Not at all. You have people trying to compare mobile tech to full sized APU x86 mini PC / Home consoles.

A switch 2 has a 120hz VRR screen and loads more packed into an 8 inch Screen device. Comparing it to a console on power when its literally drawing like a 10th of the power of a PS5 is the definition of cluelessness about tech.
 
DenchDeckard said:
Not at all. You have people trying to compare mobile tech to full sized APU x86 mini PC / Home consoles.

A switch 2 has a 120hz VRR screen and loads more packed into an 8 inch Screen device. Comparing it to a console on power when its literally drawing like a 10th of the power of a PS5 is the definition of cluelessness about tech.
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You don't buy a phone as a dedicated gaming device. A phone is a necessity for most people who have one, and it's also subsidized in your phone bill. Very few buy them outright.

It's an apple to a banana comparison.
 
Has Nintendo doomed itself already as often predicted and/or expected or are we entering a new era of Nintendoom anticipation?
 
Walter Matthau said:
I'm sure they'll have something prior to the holidays. They usually only have two major directs in a year, but I guess they'll have three this year because of the random one they just did in March with Rhythm Heaven and Tomodachi Life to wrap up what's coming to the Switch.


Didn't you just create one yesterday?
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It was two days ago... But the clock is different. It was still informative, though.

📰🗞️
 
DeepEnigma said:
You don't buy a phone as a dedicated gaming device. A phone is a necessity for most people who have one, and it's also subsidized in your phone bill. Very few buy them outright.

It's an apple to a banana comparison.
Click to expand...

Ok, so why are we comparing a home console that is wired in to a hybrid mobile device?
 
Die-hard fans and Nintendo-only gamers will eat up any initial supply naturally. It's the multi-console homes that will be waiting on picking one up if at all, especially with tariffs throwing the economy into uncertainty while staring down the barrel of a possible recession.
 
If they give the Switch 2 analogue triggers and VRR for docked, this will be the best selling console of all time for sure 100% guaranteed.
 
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lughnasadh123 said:
Die-hard fans and Nintendo-only gamers will eat up any initial supply naturally. It's the multi-console homes that will be waiting on picking one up if at all, especially with tariffs throwing the economy into uncertainty while staring down the barrel of a possible recession.
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It will sell at pace of the Switch 1 and likely exceed it for the first few years. The demand for the console is crazy, Nintendo has software lined up to drive sales, and the much broader third party support and closer parity to the home consoles will eat into PS5/Xbox sales. I think people underestimate the draw Nintendo's software has on driving sales. Mario Kart World will likely drive hardware sales for years on its own.
 
Shaki12345 said:
If they give the Switch 2 analogue triggers and VRR for docked, this will be the best selling console of all time for sure 100% guaranteed.
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I am pretty sure that VRR is going to be there maybe Gsync only … analog triggers are just important for racing games but not mandatory.
 
base_two said:
It will sell at pace of the Switch 1 and likely exceed it for the first few years. The demand for the console is crazy, Nintendo has software lined up to drive sales, and the much broader third party support and closer parity to the home consoles will eat into PS5/Xbox sales. I think people underestimate the draw Nintendo's software has on driving sales. Mario Kart World will likely drive hardware sales for years on its own.
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People keep confusing their own excitement and enthusiasm with the broader audience in general. No doubt a lot of people want it, but it's foolish to discard concerns about the higher price during the current economic crisis. You're going to see a lot of hand-me-downs with the Switch 1 as the Switch 2 is going to be more selective for those kind of households. It's going to do great, especially at launch, I just doubt it hitting Switch 1 numbers.
 
Can totally believe the headline.

Believe Switch 2 is going to have an unprecedented number of units for launch. So should do some insane numbers.

The PlayStation 5 launch was heavily supplied constrained - and scalpers caused absolute chaos.
 
lughnasadh123 said:
People keep confusing their own excitement and enthusiasm with the broader audience in general. No doubt a lot of people want it, but it's foolish to discard concerns about the higher price during the current economic crisis. You're going to see a lot of hand-me-downs with the Switch 1 as the Switch 2 is going to be more selective for those kind of households. It's going to do great, especially at launch, I just doubt it hitting Switch 1 numbers.
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I doubt many people realistically think that Switch 2 lifetime sales will exceed Switch which will land somewhere between 155m and 160m making it the best selling console in 2 decades. Switch had the strongest legs we've ever seen in console history.

I think the more interesting debate is if Switch 2 will outpace Switch sales in the first 4 or so years, even with the trade wars and global recession.
 
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Walter Matthau said:
I doubt many people realistically think that Switch 2 lifetime sales will exceed Switch which will land somewhere between 155m and 160m making it the best selling console in 2 decades. Switch had the strongest legs we've ever seen in console history.

I think the more interesting debate is if Switch 2 will outpace Switch sales in the first 4 or so years, even with the trade wars and global recession.
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I'm not sure how many are out there but some certainly do.

As for initial sales, in addition to other factors, even multi-gen launch games could hold the Switch 2 back a bit from exceeding Switch 1 sales similar to what PS5 had with people still rocking their PS4s.
 
Matsuchezz said:
Let's wait and see. This time around the switch is not as affordable as it was last gen. What is the launch window 1-3 months.
Click to expand...

Hyet said:
It cannot be helped that it will have a terrific opening just based on how long they took to release a new machine and the highest ever goodwill the original Swich got for Nintendo. I will get one.

But Nintendo has been hadling this like ass. The prices, the fake physical games, the focus on Microsoft Teams screen share, the pay to use C button the pack in tech demo that's neither packed in or free, the crazy priced accesories... As soon as the honeymoon ends (and that's a s soon as people get tired of Mario Kart...) I think any momentum they have will hit a wall. Then it's on DK to lift spirits but not everyone is fully on board with that game and many people have reservations about it.

They have to have a Direct very soon after launch and date what's left for the rest of the year but also have significant announcements. Not sure they can make that happen. Hell, seeing how bad their PR has been around this I think they won't do anything around SGFest and just announce dates on Twitter or their app until september. That would be terrible but they look like a headless chicken right now so I consider it the most likely scenario.
Click to expand...
People are going to get tired of Mario Kart?

I don't think that has ever happened.
 
Walter Matthau said:
I doubt many people realistically think that Switch 2 lifetime sales will exceed Switch which will land somewhere between 155m and 160m making it the best selling console in 2 decades. Switch had the strongest legs we've ever seen in console history.

I think the more interesting debate is if Switch 2 will outpace Switch sales in the first 4 or so years, even with the trade wars and global recession.
Click to expand...
The Switch will absolutely not fall between 155-160 million, especially with the recent statements of Bowser.(the most recent quarterly report has it at 150.86 million already)

Switch 1 will fall anywhere between 170-180 million. It will be produced for a few more years at least. It will be the cheaper alternative for Nintendo.
 
Hyet said:
I know how much MK sells, but that's not what I'm saying. Post the playtime chart!

Also, the lineup is not super hot imo. Following your list:
  • Mario Kart World | 2025-06-05 → Looks great but you can't play just that
  • Donkey Kong Bananza | 2025-07-17 → looks cool but not everyone is fully on board with it, as I said many people have some reservations about this
  • Drag x Drive | Summer 2025 → if this was a Steam release by an unknown studio instead of an NS2 exclusive it wouln't break 500 wishlists
  • Metroid Prime 4: Beyond – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | 2025 → Will be great, but it's a NS1 game. Metroid is sadly (inexplicably) a niche series
  • Kirby Air Riders | 2025 → cool, but it's the second cute mascot arcadey racing game from Nintendo in less than 6 months
  • Pokemon Legends: Z-A – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition | Late 2025 → looks fun despite graphics, but it's a NS1 game design wise.
  • Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment | Winter 2025 → We know exactly what to expect from this one and it's nice that the story is canon this time but it's preaching to the choir. Hardcore Zelda fans that appreciate this kind of game already got the system preordered.
I don't think this lineup is going to drive too many sales. That's why I think they need a follow up direct.
Click to expand...
Took away the old games. This lineup seems good for the first year of a console. I still think we are going to get a megaton but even if we don't, it's a good lineup. It's much better than what we got from Sony and Microsoft in the first year of their consoles (and in MS' case like the first three years). You can't just wave away a game because it is "NS1 game" via declaration. People will play it for Switch 2, just like poeple played God of War Ragnarok or GT7 on PS5 and they are unequivocally PS5 games.

What would be a hot lineup to you?
 
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sales domornation
almooost all third parties
dlss secret sauces
portimble
preorder secure

its all true game over bookmark confirmed
 
Anybody that thought a bit a spittle from social media, boycotting losers and fanboys would lead to Switch 2 being a failure, needs to go have their heads checked.
 
KINGMOKU said:
The Switch will absolutely not fall between 155-160 million, especially with the recent statements of Bowser.(the most recent quarterly report has it at 150.86 million already)

Switch 1 will fall anywhere between 170-180 million. It will be produced for a few more years at least. It will be the cheaper alternative for Nintendo.
Click to expand...

If Nintendo really wanted to get to the 170-180m range, I don't think it'd be that difficult for them. They could lower the price, introduce new models or special editions, offer some nice bundles, keep it in production for 4 more years, etc. I just don't think they're going to do much of any of that. I guess we'll see.

diffusionx said:
Took away the old games. This lineup seems good for the first year of a console. I still think we are going to get a megaton but even if we don't, it's a good lineup. It's much better than what we got from Sony and Microsoft in the first year of their consoles (and in MS' case like the first three years). You can't just wave away a game because it is "NS1 game" via declaration. People will play it for Switch 2, just like poeple played God of War Ragnarok or GT7 on PS5 and they are unequivocally PS5 games.

What would be a hot lineup to you?
Click to expand...

The PS5 pre-launch showcase was pretty misleading. I remember how pumped this board was about how great the launch window was going to be, but it was mostly smoke and mirrors.

Launch/ 2020
Spider-Man: Miles Morales (cross-gen)
Sackboy: A Big Adventure (cross-gen; basically a generic indie platformer with a sackboy skin)
Demon's Souls (remake not by original developer)
Bugsnax (cross-gen)
Godfall (cross-gen)

2021
Kena (cross-gen)
Resident Evil 8 (cross-gen; not exclusive)
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart
Returnal
Deathloop (not exclusive)

2022
God of War: Ragnarök (cross-gen)
Horizon: Forbidden West (cross-gen)
Gran Turismo 7 (cross-gen)
Ghostwire (not exclusive)

2023
Final Fantasy XVI
Hogwarts Legacy (cross-gen; not exclusive)
Goodbye Volcano High (cross-gen)

I know people are annoyed that Nintendo seemed to focus almost exclusively on the 2025 pipeline, but at least people buying at launch are under no delusion about what they'll actually be playing in the first year.
 
Walter Matthau said:
If Nintendo really wanted to get to the 170-180m range, I don't think it'd be that difficult for them. They could lower the price, introduce new models or special editions, offer some nice bundles, keep it in production for 4 more years, etc. I just don't think they're going to do much of any of that. I guess we'll see.
Click to expand...
If Nintendo was smart, they'd slash the price of the Switch, knowing full well it would be a red carpet to the Switch 2 via backwards compatibility.
 
lughnasadh123 said:
Die-hard fans and Nintendo-only gamers will eat up any initial supply naturally. It's the multi-console homes that will be waiting on picking one up if at all, especially with tariffs throwing the economy into uncertainty while staring down the barrel of a possible recession.
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Remember when everyone said this exact same thing word for word about the original Switch?

I'd have thought people would have learned but here we are
 
LakeOf9 said:
Remember when everyone said this exact same thing word for word about the original Switch?

I'd have thought people would have learned but here we are
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How does that make any sense when we didn't have the current economic situation then or complete saturation of Switch 1 in homes?

Hell, or the increase in Console prices? Increase in accessory prices? Increase in game prices? Increase across the fucking board all while staring down a recession? But sure, it's the same situation.

tenor.gif
 
L*][*N*K said:
But some of you have said that this is gonna be WiiU, this is gonna be the final nail in the coffin???
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Switch 2 will most likely outsell the Wii U by year's end.

If Nintendo can keep up production and economic markets are stable.
 
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