Did everyone get the Extraction genre wrong?

Did games enthusiasts miss on the Extraction genres potential?

  • Yes. The genre will see considerable growth in the next few years.

  • Undecided

  • No. I still don't think the genre has much room for growth.


Results are only viewable after voting.
I bought Tarkov a while ago but to me it's a full blown horror game, so haven't played it too much, the people into it get really into it and that's cool.

Same goes for Arc Raiders and the extraction genre in general, I guess. I can get how people would be passionate about the games.

As others have pointed out it's a banger of a spectator genre. I'm looking forward to COD DMZ making a return that was neat for me, I liked it more than regular Warzone, less terrifying than Tarkov.
 
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Halo reached more than 400,000 players on its open beta and was going to have a similar trajectory apparently. All titles and specifics aside, it comes down to

1. Is there a big enough audience for this on consoles

Given the consoles lack this - and I still believe Div 1 Dark Zone to be the best I've seen - there will be one game that becomes the de facto most played extraction shooter. Will it do huge numbers? No.

Can the extraction genre be rounded out to be a more meaningful and enjoyable game? Yes, and I'd be happy to discuss that in another thread, but I know you don't like to make them too often. The fundamental mechanics of hardcore extraction shooters with niche playerbases are not mass appeal, and instead of putting efforts into trimming the edges they need to rethink the actual mechanics. It's not hard.

I think when we get console figures for Tarkov and Steam CCU for Tarkov after 3 months people will be surprised.
 
One million CCU.
So the Extraction genre can only grow, in your opinion, if ARC Raiders settles on a 1 million CCU average? You're setting the genre growth marker at 45x it's current size? Or am I misunderstanding?

If it is the next big thing it should hit that number easily. PUBG did over 3x that.
Have you ever seen how growth and maturity in the animal kingdom varies so wildly?

Elephants have an 18 year adolescent period.
The Turquoise Killfish (thanks Google) reaches full maturity 14 days after hatching.

Genre growth happens at varying rates. I don't expect we'll ever see a genre blow up as quickly as Battle Royale for the rest of our lives.

The ones that blow up with the zoomers and alphas who watch them are the meme games.

Hence, they are memes.
So were all the games that were popular when you were a kid just "meme games". Are all games that appeal to kids illegitimate? What is the age breakdown of Escape from Duckov btw?
 
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So the Extraction genre can only grow, in your opinion, if ARC Raiders settles on a 1 million CCU average? You're setting the genre growth marker at 45x it's current size? Or am I misunderstanding?
You are the one claiming this is some genre with massive untapped appeal, and also ARC raiders is the game that will tap it. So yea, why wouldn't it? It should get to 1 million players easily. It's even launching on multiple platforms unlike PUBG.

It seems like you are just trying to set up an out so if ARC fails you can claim that it "grew the genre" and Marathon or whatever will be the next one that shows how popular it is. Well, it doesn't really work that way.

So were all the games that were popular when you were a kid just "meme games". Are all games that appeal to kids illegitimate? What is the age breakdown of Escape from Duckov btw?
you evidently seem unfamiliar with what a meme is, so of course cannot wrap your head around a meme game, while everyone else understands perfectly well what it is.
 
The fundamental mechanics of hardcore extraction shooters with niche playerbases are not mass appeal, and instead of putting efforts into trimming the edges they need to rethink the actual mechanics. It's not hard.
The future of the genre is not "hardcore Extraction shooter". The future of the genre is "Extraction adventure". I believe Embark is the first company to realize this.

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People like to contribute to accomplishing difficult tasks. Deemphasizing aim skill and prioritizing the value of different playstyles will grow the genre immensely. That's why ARC Raiders has bigger market potential than Tarkov. They're already taking steps in the right direction.
 
Even if Escape from Duckov is a meme game, it's polished, forgiving and has a clear and satisfying sense of progression.

The majority of extraction shooters are just too hardcore for me. I can't handle getting ganked and losing everything. It's deeply, deeply unenjoyable.
 
You are behind the times man. Extraction shooters is so 2024.
It's all about co-op meme climbing games now

the-co-op-climing-game-peak-has-sold-5-million-copies-in-v0-xkzjgllqobcf1.jpeg
This is some alternate reality shit where we're in here having pissing contests over "traditional" games with comparatively tiny numbers and out there in the world weird random bullshit pulls legitimate enormous figures.
 
You are the one claiming this is some genre with massive untapped appeal, and also ARC raiders is the game that will tap it. So yea, why wouldn't it? It should get to 1 million players easily. It's even launching on multiple platforms unlike PUBG.
Did Battlefield 6 even get to 1 million CCU?

It seems like you're setting your markers at ludicrous heights because you don't want to admit the genre is indeed growing.

I don't expect it to grow at this unimaginable space because the genre is innately complex. There's a million things ARC Raiders will do wrong as the genre is uncovered.
It seems like you are just trying to set up an out so if ARC fails you can claim that it "grew the genre" and Marathon or whatever will be the next one that shows how popular it is. Well, it doesn't really work that way.
My definition of genre growth is much more inline with realty. You estimate what the current genre size is and you see what percentage that size becomes after a new entry enters the field.

you evidently seem unfamiliar with what a meme is, so of course cannot wrap your head around a meme game, while everyone else understands perfectly well what it is.
It's clearly an murky term that warrants different perspectives.
 
It's a niche genre. Most people I know don't like them, because of how unforgiving they are. As an example, there were no insured weapons in the ARC playtest. If that's how it's going to be going forward, and you lose every weapon you die in possession of, my group, who was so hyped for the release, will probably drop the game outright.
 
I find it too hardcore. I absolutely hate to lose my progress, and that's essential for this game type. It can be nice from time to time to play something different, like an extraction shooter, but it's nothing that I would play for a long time.
 
You are behind the times man. Extraction shooters is so 2024.
It's all about co-op meme climbing games now

the-co-op-climing-game-peak-has-sold-5-million-copies-in-v0-xkzjgllqobcf1.jpeg
Peak is still averaging 20k CCU 5 months after launch.

That's just a great innovative title.

Oh God, "meme game" is the new "Fortnite is a fad" thing isn't it.

Andy Dufrane hands raised during storm meme.
 
The genre has been around for almost a decade now. It's pretty popular but I don't see it exploding in growth anytime soon. Arc Raiders numbers are good, but not genre defining good.
 
The future of the genre is not "hardcore Extraction shooter". The future of the genre is "Extraction adventure". I believe Embark is the first company to realize this.

images


People like to contribute to accomplishing difficult tasks. Deemphasizing aim skill and prioritizing the value of different playstyles will grow the genre immensely. That's why ARC Raiders has bigger market potential than Tarkov. They're already taking steps in the right direction.

I disagree. It's like sticking a different type of fabric on a munter
 
I find it too hardcore. I absolutely hate to lose my progress, and that's essential for this game type. It can be nice from time to time to play something different, like an extraction shooter, but it's nothing that I would play for a long time.
Division 1 had the perfect balance.

A single zone, a diversion from the main game, where you could chance your arm as a solo player and get lucky.
 
All games are built with the basic rule of "instant gratification", you need to have the blood pumping, the numbers with effects and more positive reinforcement to keep the normies hooked into your game (so they will buy more items on your ingame store).

Battle royale games works because they are not that hard to get into (you can even log in with your friends, making it even easier to put people in the hook), they give easy positive feedback with "rare", "legendary" and other items casually dropping, the stakes are not that high so even if you are close to get chicken dinner there is no frustration in just losing the match, you where going to start from zero anyways in your next game.

Extraction shooters works different: you have to scavenger for resources and try to keep them until you extract, you wont be doing the "yolo, lets wipe this other squad" because if you fail and get killed, there is a consequence by losing all the stuff you got. This let to being in a disadvantage position in the next game by have worse gear than the rest. This creates frustation and it goes against the principle of having your normies addicted to your game, so this kind of games will never get outside people that like these kind of games.

On a game design level: is a good mode with hide stakes, but it can (and will) get to an stalemate, people that are good will just keep getting good thanks to their gear, and new comers will leave or have to wait for a "server wipe" or there is not more fun than being the abused by players that play 24/7.

In short: no. This game mode was never going to be big by design, but companies keep pushing this because Fortnite and Warzone already cemented themselves as the kings of Battle royales, like when the crypto currencies initial boom passed and then people try to make NFT the next boom because they missed the first one.
 
On Steam, Arc Raiders hit a peak concurrent player count of 189,668

Good for them. I'm happy to hear any news of a game doing well right now with the economy being what it is and a handful of forever-games sucking up almost all the oxygen in the room. I'm exhausted by all the stories of developers going out of business because they launched a game that I've never heard of, no one bought it, and now everyone is crying.

However:
  • This was an open beta. The game costs $40 when it launches next Thursday. Let's check back at Thanksgiving and see what the numbers have been like after a month out. Again, I'm hoping it's a success story. I want independent studios to be profitable.
  • Let's check back in Q2 '26 and see what the player count fall off has been like. Do they have a slow and gradual decline, or will they have lost 90%+ of their players?
  • How do the other new shooters this holiday do? We know BF6 did well. How about this year's COD?
  • Will see see Arc Raiders pulling people away from the forever games - Fortnite, COD, GTA Online, Minecraft, Roblox, etc.? If not, I wouldn't expect this genre to have real growth potential. If they just absorb the existing players in this genre for a while, that player base will move onto the next good one when it comes out.
  • Google indicates Embark Studios have around 340 people and they're independent. That makes them a lot more flexible than a studio at a major publisher (publicly company) who are never satisfied with just breaking even or maintaining. Even if Arc Raiders carves out a niche in the market and is "successful" by their own standards, that doesn't mean this genre is going to "blow up" with PlayStation, Microsoft, Take Two, Ubisoft, etc. all chasing it.
  • I suspect the executives at other game companies will take Arc Raiders as one data point, but they'll also be watching to see how Marathon does when it launches. If Arc Raiders is a success, but Marathon flops, what does their analysis of that data look like? I suspect it would be "...Meh? We don't know...", which is not a strong reason to go invest hundreds of millions chasing the genre.
Let's revisit at Thanksgiving and in the spring to see what the charts and graphs look like. :messenger_spock:
 
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