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[GymWolf]

My highly precise prediction is that it's gonna do better numbers than concord but worse numbers than arc raiders.

 

[nowhat]

I'll do one better - I'll predict my reaction to the factual Marathon market performance once it is released.

nelson.gif

 

[clarky]

If you look at the release announcement thread. People already treat it like its dead.

People on here are not a good barometer. Most have been frothing at the mouth for months for this game to fail.

Not saying its going to be a smash hit but concord 2 this isn't.

 

[Saber]

Not a total flop but disastring low. Massive lack of appeal and looks like a generic shooter, just ultra colorful.
Might be the end of Bungie or maybe will trigger a big overhaul in the studio.

 

[VolticArchangel]

<100k (in fact, <50k) ccu and drops to <10% of that within a month.

I'm being generous with the 50k ccu.

 

[ElFenomeno]

Big bomba incoming

 

[I'm nobody]

This game will go round like wild fire like arc eventually
The bitterness is from the people think some artists was screwed over since settled

Game looks good and I'm in

 

[Eesha]

i voted 0-99k because is in the middle, like a good centrist.

 

[Cakeboxer]

<100k (in fact, <50k) ccu and drops to <10% of that within a month.

I'm being generous with the 50k ccu.

As always, it will come down to Sony's marketing. If they have a lot of confidence in the game and pour tens of millions into marketing like they do for their cinematic games, it might even perform quite well at the beginning. Astro Bot marketing = RIP.

 

[The Cockatrice]

People assume the hate Destiny got will bomb this, but in fact it'll be the opposite. Destiny players are starved and will eat it up no matter how bad it is. Expecting mixed results, but it will do pretty decent numbers.

 

[Topher]

Thought you dropped off Arc pretty quickly?

That was me

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Congrats.

I knew you were old,. I just didn't realise how old you were.



They have pills for people of your 'vintage' that help with that.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I think dev talent better spent on fresh ideas like immersive sims, single-player narratives, or innovative co-op experiences. Not for chasing trends.

The three genres you listed are all trends.

 

[Paasei]

Who knows, maybe you get to meet Sony devs just like in Concord. They seemed to be the only ones praising and playing it.

 

[Black_Stride]

100K seems generous.

 

[Lord Panda]

I predict:

 

[Guilty_AI]

Hard to predict. General views on the game dont seem very favorable, but Bungie still has an audience to pull from, it'll likely also get a boost from the interest in Arc raiders.

 

[Ar¢tos]

On the positive side, Marathon's inevitable fail will finally give Sony full control of Bungie's management (although I expect nothing positive to come from that too).

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

People really think the new Bungie title will peak at between to 100k CCU?
This topic will be fun in March.

 

[Kokoloko85]

My prediction is a bunch of basement dwellers all over the internet will be fixated on making this game fail/die and will talk about it more than people who actually buy and play the game. These "experts" always pop up to give the opinion and nitpkick against games they hate. But turn a blind eye to the shit they play..

Its gonna be niche, but the gameplay will be good for what it is

Ark, Helldivers 2 and other extraction games cost money to buy and arent f2p. Stop saying it should be f2p….

 

[Mownoc]

The lowest option being 0-99k is wild. That's a pretty massive gulf. The majority of steam PS releases don't break 100k, neither do MS games despite them being day 1.

99k is too high to be the worst option lol. That's over 100x Concord lol.

 

[Punished Miku]

I think it'll do very well. The art style that they stole is phenomenal, and they'll slowly build up the gameplay with patches like always.

I think people are being primed for a $40 shooter every year, and this will be the 1st of this year. After Helldivers 2 and Arc Raiders, I wouldn't be shocked to even seen Call of Duty start trying $40 price points.

 

[Kokoloko85]

People really think the new Bungie title will peak at between to 100k CCU?
This topic will be fun in March.

If you look at the release announcement thread. People already treat it like its dead.

These people who are excited to shit on it and cant wait to sit on their desk and spend hours to talk about how bad it is.
Men in boxes is just gathering the hype for a giant sacrifice and dump he's gonna do on the game, i know how he operates lol.
The there will be the people who never play it but will have journalistic detailed essays about the game… w

Game look visually refreshing and its gonna be typical bungie gunplay. If you like it, then you have a chance of enjoying it. If you dont like Bungie, I doubt they would like it. Its gonna be hard and niche but people will act like its a flop when it doesnt reach Destiny numbers and celebrate over it

 

[RafterXL]

NeoGAF thinks everything is DOA

I'm thinking 80k. Not a nightmarish disaster but enough to keep things going for a few months before it hits 15-20k. I'm sure they'll throw in some free weekends and sales by then.

80k for a Bungie game is DOA. If only hit 80k Sony is absolutely going to consume what's left of their corpses. I hate Bungo and think the game will flop and I still think, just off brand slaves alone, they will hit between 1-200k but then fall off of a cliff later. 80k would be an epic failure.

 

[ByWatterson]

I only got to play a little, but it's clear this game has a certain something, a special sauce that makes me think about it after I play. A good sign.

It'll be okay, I think.

 

[clarky]

I think it'll do very well. The art style that they stole is phenomenal, and they'll slowly build up the gameplay with patches like always.

I think people are being primed for a $40 shooter every year, and this will be the 1st of this year. After Helldivers 2 and Arc Raiders, I wouldn't be shocked to even seen Call of Duty start trying $40 price points.

They didn't steal the art style lol.

 

[clarky]

I only got to play a little, but it's clear this game has a certain something, a special sauce that makes me think about it after I play. A good sign.

It'll be okay, I think.

This seems to be the common consensus from most people who've actually played the game., the most recent tests anyway.

 

[RCU005]

I want this to fail so badly, even worse that Concord 2. The reason is because Sony shouldn't make these kind of games.

Their DNA is in single player games, and although they have made some truly remarkable multiplayer games, they are completely out of the GaaS shit.

I would believe Microsoft to be the one trying to chase the GaaS trend, not Sony.


Personal issues aside, I believe this game is not going to flop as hard as Concord (Sony won't let it), but I feel it won't be a success at all. I think this will be like Suicide Squad or those games that survive several seasons, maybe a year and then they get shut down.

Sony/Bungie would have to make some big transformations a la No Man Sky to turn it over and make it successful.

 

[clarky]

I want this to fail so badly, even worse that Concord 2. The reason is because Sony shouldn't make these kind of games.

Their DNA is in single player games, and although they have made some truly remarkable multiplayer games, they are completely out of the GaaS shit.

I would believe Microsoft to be the one trying to chase the GaaS trend, not Sony.


Personal issues aside, I believe this game is not going to flop as hard as Concord (Sony won't let it), but I feel it won't be a success at all. I think this will be like Suicide Squad or those games that survive several seasons, maybe a year and then they get shut down.

Sony/Bungie would have to make some big transformations a la No Man Sky to turn it over and make it successful.

What a terrible attitude to have. Sony have made some great multiplayer games in the past, but you want anything you don't like to fail?

Single player narrative games don't interest me but I have no desire to see them to fail. I couldn't care less about stuff like Wolverine for example but hope its good for people who enjoy those types of games. Do you hope the next Gran Turismo fails as well?

GAAS isn't a trend btw, they've been around for years.

 

[Mengy]

0-99k and -61-80%.

This is how I voted too.

It would be interesting if the poll had a third question with these two options:

3) Would you have preferred they made a spiritual successor to Titanfall instead of this Marathon extraction shooter?
- Yes
- No

 

[clarky]

This is how I voted too.

It would be interesting if the poll had a third question with these two options:

3) Would you have preferred they made a spiritual successor to Titanfall instead of this Marathon extraction shooter?
- Yes
- No

Thought you hated PVP?

 

[crazyriddler]

What a terrible attitude to have. Sony have made some great multiplayer games in the past, but you want anything you don't like to fail?

Single player narrative games don't interest me but I have no desire to see them to fail. I couldn't care less about stuff like Wolverine for example but hope its good for people who enjoy those types of games. Do you hope the next Gran Turismo fails as well?

GAAS isn't a trend btw, they've been around for years.

Sony focused primarily on developing high-quality single-player games, which is what made fans of the brand want to buy a PS console. Resources are not unlimited, nor is the number of first-party studios, and Sony, instead of honoring what made its brand strong as a game developer, has spent an obscene amount of money on multiplayer GAAS in an attempt to join the Fortnite wave, which are also the type of players least interested in buying games.

So yeah. my wish is for Marathon and all the GAAS crap to go down in flames, causing Sony to suffer a significant loss and reevaluate its approach.

 

[clarky]

Sony focused primarily on developing high-quality single-player games, which is what made fans of the brand want to buy a PS console. Resources are not unlimited, nor is the number of first-party studios, and Sony, instead of honoring what made its brand strong as a game developer, has spent an obscene amount of money on multiplayer GAAS in an attempt to join the Fortnite wave, which are also the type of players least interested in buying games.

So yeah. my wish is for Marathon and all the GAAS crap to go down in flames, causing Sony to suffer a significant loss and reevaluate its approach.

Revisionist history. Multiplayer games have always been a strong part of Sony's portfolio.

I hope this game is great and Wolverine is shit so you have nothing to play.

 

[Sethbacca]

It's not gonna be a Concord level flop, but it's gonna land with the same plop. The Bungie name carries some clout still in spite of their recent mediocrity. Went with 100-199k, but I ain't playing it.

People on here are not a good barometer. Most have been frothing at the mouth for months for this game to fail.

One only need look as far back as Yotei at this point for board sentiment vs reality.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I hope this game is great and Wolverine is shit so you have nothing to play.

 

[CLW]

The real ? is will it Concord

 

[PeteBull]

Marathon performance?

 

[Herbspiceguy]

The game will flop on Steam and might do decent on PS, so how will we tell the total numbers?

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

I am going scorched earth. DoA at launch and maximum dead one month later.

The game will flop on Steam and might do decent on PS, so how will we tell the total numbers?

by ther amount of gaslightning going on.

 

[SeanyQuest]

I think Destiny players are bitter about this game. Factor in bad early impressions, muh stolen art controversy, and famously woke studio and it don't look particularly good. I will not offer an explicit prediction but merely a hope that Highguard gains some semblance of financial success and Marathon flops hard.

FUCK. DESTINY. PLAYERS.

The entire pvp side of Bungies fanbase may as well have been ignored since Halo Reach.

 

[Reavr]

80k for a Bungie game is DOA. If only hit 80k Sony is absolutely going to consume what's left of their corpses. I hate Bungo and think the game will flop and I still think, just off brand slaves alone, they will hit between 1-200k but then fall off of a cliff later. 80k would be an epic failure.

DOA, corpses. flop, brand slaves, fall off a cliff, epic failure

Where's that "This is NeoGAF" gif when you need it lol

I don't care for Bungie either. They're chumps for plagiarizing and this should have had a campaign. But, that doesn't mean they can't build a decent userbase and sustain the game for a few years.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

Can't judge at the moment without an open beta.

 

[Luipadre]

Im going with 100-200k and will stay around 20k on the long run

 

[Luipadre]

Having played a decent amount of the betas I can safely say it should have been f2p to have any shot to survive

f2p is a mistake for games like this. Marathon has more than enough quality to justify the price tag

 

[Negotiator101]

I disagree. All respect to HeisenbergFX4 but hes not that keen on extraction in general, unless I'm mistaken.

I thought it was great. I Put 50 hours into the last test and wanted more.

Problem is the competition and more precisely Arc Raiders which doing crazy numbers on all platforms and Marathon ain't competing with that, so unless Sony are happy with a small slice of the pie (and they won't be) this will be dead in 6 months after a decent launch.

 

[clarky]

Problem is the competition and more precisely Arc Raiders which doing crazy numbers on all platforms and Marathon ain't competing with that, so unless Sony are happy with a small slice of the pie (and they won't be) this will be dead in 6 months after a decent launch.

Jury's out on this one. I love Arc Raiders but I also really liked the Marathon test for very different reasons. It does alot of thing a lot better. The PVP crowd are more suited to Marathon for sure.

If Arc drops the ball, which is entirely possible at this point it could work out well for Marathon.

Unsure If Arc has the legs to sustain what has been a very strong start. No way Marathon does those kind of numbers though but I think what players it does attract will stick around for longer if it has decent longer term support. Again the jury is out on that. If nothing else it will be a decent time for a bit at least.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

Bungie need to thank Embark Studios for making extraction shooters mainstream.

The audience has now been trained to purchase extration shooters.

GAF, needs to keep up with the times. The first 12 responses, other than the first, are absolutely embarrassing.

Marathon will live and will have a similar lifecycle to The Finals.

This is a good point. Arc Raiders actually did make me more interested in Marathon. While I still play it daily, I've done pretty much everything the game has to offer besides missing a couple blueprints for the gold (legendary?) weapons.

I'm asking myself though, what's the point? I get those weapons and just grind more Matriarchs and Queens? Maybe work on trials? I've got everything ready for the expedition for the wipe, but not sure how much I'll enjoy the reset without any new content.

If it turns out good, I could actually see myself jumping between Marathon and Arc Raiders during their respective content droughts.

 

[clarky]

This is a good point. Arc Raiders actually did make me more interested in Marathon. While I still play it daily, I've done pretty much everything the game has to offer besides missing a couple blueprints for the gold (legendary?) weapons.

I'm asking myself though, what's the point? I get those weapons and just grind more Matriarchs and Queens? Maybe work on trials? I've got everything ready for the expedition for the wipe, but not sure how much I'll enjoy the reset without any new content.

If it turns out good, I could actually see myself jumping between Marathon and Arc Raiders during their respective content droughts.

Pretty much this. I don't think Arc knows what it wants to be longer term. People are saying there is no "endgame" which is true but there usually isnt in these types of games. It's kind of half in and half out at this point.

Marathon seems to have figured out what it is finally and has a seasonal loop in place. And seemingly a ranked mode. I think both will coexist nicely.

If Embark has any sense it will go for the jugular and plan for a huge update and new map around march, then Marathon might be in real trouble.

 

[LordCBH]

In at 200k w/ that 41%-60% drop in 4 weeks.
Probably another 30%-50% drop in the second month.

 

[Griffon]

Fuck I forgot it's not f2p, my vote is way too high and I can't edit D: