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[MLiD] XBOX Magnus RDNA 5 Finalized

And the reason that it has gone more smoothly more recently is only because the difference in architectures between a PC and PS/Xbox have become smaller and smaller since GTAIV, not because they have changed priorities. Console is still the priority.
This is just wrong. PC (Nvidia Gen 9.5/10 Graphics) and Console (AMD Gen 9/9.5 Graphics) couldn't be further apart.

how hard is it to understand that PC gaming has grown considerably, and Xbox shat the bed, so the calculus on the prioritization of PC / Consoles has changed? even Sony releases on PC.
 
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You can't be serious?

Do you think the difference between a PS3/360 and PC is smaller than the difference between a PS4/5/XO/XS and PC?
You're attributing something to the wrong cause. The consoles becoming more similar to PC wasn't just about Cell being a pain to work with, it was also to ease development for developers who were increasingly being forced to work on 3 different platforms. Late PS3-Early PS4 era was when PC was un-ignoreable.

Even now, PC(nvidia) is architecturally different enough and Nvidia requires the support for many different PC specific features and accommodations for PC Gamers only being able to afford 8GB VRAM.

Developers are forced to put in significant amounts of work for PC. If consoles were like PC and porting was trivial early PS5 era wouldn't be filled with PC gamers burning games for being unoptimized on PC hardware (Nvidia).

It's literally just TAM. The totally addressable market for PC has grown considerably more than consoles since 2013. that's all.
 
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99% of third party games release on PC day one with consoles releases.

GTA was always console first.

What are YOU talking about?
Who is claiming something else?

Are you claiming 1st tier release is not prioritised over 2nd?

It's shouldn't be rocket science even for you.
 
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infographic_gtav_double_dip.jpg
 
Misinformation. No, Console doesn't magically outperform just because it's a console. PS5 still often performs like a 6650XT with slightly more VRAM. Not to mention, XSX runs DX12 to begin with.

PS5 outperforming XSX was never optimization. Developers attribute PS5 being easier to work with to explain the result. But again PS5 GPU was winning through a pure hardware lead.

It won't be possible to overcome a ~40% GPU Perf Lead.

XSX2 is just PS6 Pro, that's all.


This is more a 2020 take since PC is now bigger than console and a primary target.

PS5 lazy ports issue with PC is the misalignment around VRAM amounts.

Magnus architecturally is like PS6, it's just a scaled up version of it.

The major issue for Magnus is that it's cursed with Radeon drivers. But that's an inconvenience more than anything.
Its not misinformation saying that games developed specifically for a hardware will perfom much better than the same game developed to run in whatever generic hardware you have, so the advantage the xbox will have can be overtaken or at least broaden by this.

The xbox is a PC it will have to deal with PC optimization problems... simple as this.
 
Who is claiming something else?

Are you claiming 1st tier release is not prioritised over 2nd?

It's shouldn't be rocket science even for you.

You talked about other games and publishers when essentially ONLY GTA is like that:

YKERYdz14EOHuTa8.jpg


And it was always like that. All those Battlefield, AC and COD games are on PC day one...
 
Now prove your point that Magnus won't have dedicated Console SKUs for the Xbox ecosystem. Don't just make things up to fit your bias, bring some evidence. The other guy said there won't even be any Xbox ecosystem versions at all, even PC SKUs, and that MS will be selling Steam/Epic games, lmao.
I dont have to proof anything... its not bias .. if you really think that developers will develop games specifically for this very niche 1200+ dollar product when they know this PC/console will run PC games from steam/etc than more power to you budy. I Hope your hopes and dreams are not crushed once again.
 
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You're attributing something to the wrong cause. The consoles becoming more similar to PC wasn't just about Cell being a pain to work with, it was also to ease development for developers who were increasingly being forced to work on 3 different platforms. Late PS3-Early PS4 era was when PC was un-ignoreable.
Even now, PC(nvidia) is architecturally different enough and Nvidia requires the support for many different PC specific features and accommodations for PC Gamers only being able to afford 8GB VRAM.
It's literally just TAM. The totally addressable market for PC has grown considerably more than consoles since 2013. that's all.Developers are forced to put in significant amounts of work for PC. If consoles were like PC and porting was trivial early PS5 era wouldn't be filled with PC gamers burning games for being unoptimized on PC hardware (Nvidia).

That's word salad to a yes or no question but you seem to be agreeing that the differences were bigger and more of a problem to devs. so why are you talking about differences bewteen AMD and Nvidia today? Most of that is abstracted behind an API.
Back in the day you would get poor PC ports like GTAIV and more often than not no ports at all even from third party due to the difficulty/cost in porting.
 
Its not misinformation saying that games developed specifically for a hardware will perfom much better than the same game developed to run in whatever generic hardware you have, so the advantage the xbox will have can be overtaken or at least broaden by this.
Then why does PS5 run most games at comperable performance to PC equivalent hardware?

it's a myth that Consoles run faster than their equivalent hardware. Optimization is just resource and constraint management.

Not to mention XSX is Windows Kernel + DX12 lmao. the major change is the desktop environment lol.

I dont have to proof anything... its not bias .. if you really think that developers will develop games specifically for this very niche 1200+ dollar product when they know this PC/console will run PC games from steam/etc than more power to you budy. I Hope your hopes and dreams are not crushed once again.
They won't need to.

They will develop for PC and Magnus with AMD drivers will run it pretty well with a lot of customizability. They will just make a magnus preset out of the existing settings options and that's it.

Off course AMD drivers and game support are second rate relative to Nvidia. But it's still good enough.
 
You talked about other games and publishers when essentially ONLY GTA is like that:

YKERYdz14EOHuTa8.jpg


And it was always like that. All those Battlefield, AC and COD games are on PC day one...
I didn't mention how they prioritize console and why they prioritize console, just as examples to counter this 🤡 who said only Japanese prioritize PS5. (Which is totally wrong)

Or are you saying those are somehow bad examples?
 
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I didn't mention how they prioritize console and why they prioritize console, just as examples to counter this 🤡 who said only Japanese prioritize PS5. (Which is totally wrong)

Or are you saying those are somehow bad examples?

But what are those examples? From EA, Ubi and Activision (MS)?

We know that GTA will launch later on PC, that was always the case.
 
I dont have to proof anything... its not bias .. if you really think that developers will develop games specifically for this very niche 1200+ dollar product when they know this PC/console will run PC games from steam/etc than more power to you budy. I Hope your hopes and dreams are not crushed once again.
Microsoft owns half the videogame industry, and are going to optimize their games for the SX2. So if this 2030 scenario for PS6 plays out, the Xbox will have a couple of years where their games will perform a lot better compared to the PS5 versions and then also the PS6 once that is out.
 
Actual story with Magnus is cost.

If Microsoft can't reliably be certain that they can earn a commission on games they won't be able to offer the console at cost.

Remember when I said in this environment with tariffs, PS6 is 899$?

Well XSX2 is probably at least 1,799$ if Microsoft can't earn after sales.

2c1Bq3BgoCKZ8Wd4.jpeg


The cost spirals out of control completely. And suddenly it's just a high end AMD PC.

The market for an AMD high end PC that's sold at a profit doesn't exist. So they have to find a Way to launch at cost.

If Microsoft wants to launch at cost (~1200$ currently) like PS6, they need to be able to:

1. Prevent piracy
2. Take a 30% commission out of a significant % of purchases.
3. Take a 10-15% commission out of approved stores.
4. Lock certain system functionality behind Game pass. the conversion rate has to be high. as high as sony forcing PS5/6 gamers to cough up 80 (soon to be 100-120$) for online.

They can't do it. So the case has to be how Magnus can he a vehicle for Microsoft to justify increasingly locking down the entire PC platform.

An analysis that compares PS6 with XSX2 misses the point completely. It's not PS6 vs XSX2, it's Steam Machine/Deck 2 vs XSX2 and Windows vs Linux.

TLDR: MSFT is not in the business of selling billions of 0% margin boxes unless they have a concrete case for how they can earn significant recurring revenue through it.
FYI, Microsoft got a tariff waiver on all chips it makes.
 
Good write up. It's quite informative/interesting.

What you're essentially saying is that because the CPU accesses the memory bus at a lower rate, the effective bandwidth use of the CPU is higher. Thus my estimate of 504 GB/s for the extreme highly unlikely scenario (12/12.5GB to GPU) isn't accurate and that it should be ~477 GB/s. Or specifically, 40 * 560 / 336 =66.667. 26.7 GB/s wasted by CPU.

imo the scenario is so rare it's borderline irrelevant (a scenario where dGPU uses than 12/12.5GB). However I will engage since you put a decent amount of effort.

First, the 40 GB/s bandwidth for the CPU is on the high end.



Not a single game over 20 GB/s. Most below 10 GB/s for CPU. A game where CPU uses 500 MBs total will not have the CPU use 40 GB/s or even 20 GB/s. But lets be safe and say 20 GB/s

In other-words, CPU uses 20 * 560 / 336 = 33.3 GB/s

Instead of a 504 GB/s effective memory BW as I said. It's 504 - (33.3-20) = 491 GB/s once you account for CPU's accesses being slower.

This is an interesting technical discussion. However, this isn't a useful one. XSX having a slightly lesser memory bw lead over PS5 under extreme conditions doesn't explain WHY PS5 is beating it. This is why I was getting irritated.

The actual story of why XSX is losing is the weaker front end. And it's being buried while we discuss precisely how much faster is XSX's memory bandwidth.

And it's the relevant conversation since magnus has a 26-31% stronger backend and 33% stronger front end at the same clock. And magnus is expected to clock higher, has more than double the L2 cache and has a wider unified memory bus.

This is what I meant by saying that PS6 Can't compete and that Magnus is basically a PS6 Pro. Sony tied last gen because MSFT fumbled. Xbox haven't repeated XSX's mistakes.

The numbers I did are just a consistent framework for comparing the two console access limits and will be at least 50% lower bandwidth in key stages in reality IMO.

As for what bandwidth CPUs use on PC, it doesn't translate to APU based consoles. Cerny provided that figure himself -measured - so it is a quantified cost to that theoretical maximum on consoles. Keep in mind that on an APU based console at 60fps the CPU ad GPU are alternatively being blocked from accessing the unified memory at least 60 times each and any inefficiency to the memory controller that brings to accessible bandwidth, unlike on PC where the GPU has its own distinct pool and it is a PCIE bus the CPU and GPU compete for access to +60 times a second, that keeps the graphics simulation in lockstep.

So that 20GB/s bandwidth figure you are using might be the same on console, just that it costs twice as much from the console's CPU memory theoretical maximum like I used in my example because interleaved GPU accesses is blocking access man micro transfers per frame and vice versa.

In ideal synthetic situations the GPU would be busy processing from its caches while the CPU is doing a transfer and vice versa so that the micro transfers are blocking at an absolute minimum, but that isn't realistic for games - even if we did see a technical info about 1 Liverpool APU jaguar CPU Cluster cache snooping another CPU cluster's L2 with higher latency to avoid the L2 memory writeback by the first cluster and memory readback to the 2nd cluster L2 - but what it does typify is that a unified memory at a high peak bandwidth will provide better sustained bandwidth - even ignoring the benefit of cache scrubbers at bottlenecked moment -than a two tier system like the XsX. The more frequent the access patterns(higher frame-rate) the constrained the more complex system becomes from unavoidable micro blocking the CPU or GPU on the Series X.
 
This is going to be super expensive and i don't think MS is willing to bite the bullet and offer it at a price which makes them take a big blow.
If they were open to that, they would already do it with the Series X that costs as much as a PS5 Pro nowadays and they are rotting on shelves.
 
I mean, they have said PC is their main platform several times now
You mean this Capcom?



thesimpsons-clowns.gif

and PC has been making over half of their unit sales for years. Steam alone is a third of their total (so more than just gaming) revenue.
Half of their unit sales and just one third of their revenue explains all of the above.
 
It's poetic in a way

MS pivots to PC just as that market is crashing

They always have the perfect strategy until they don't
That would've been a masterstroke if they had done it in 2005.

Now? It feels like too little, too late.

Still, at this point, fully committing to a PC storefront and positioning it as a real rival to Steam is probably their best strategic move going forward.
 
You mean this Capcom?



thesimpsons-clowns.gif


Half of their unit sales and just one third of their revenue explains all of the above.

I'm not sure what any of that has to do with them not making PC their main platform?

Adding DRM is just tone deaf, not a sign that they don't value the PC platform.

MH Wilds has been shit on consoles as well when it comes to performance, especially the base consoles, but at least the VRAM issues and DRM problems have already been fixed for PC.

Meanwhile Pragmata runs perfectly well, and it and RE9 are getting PC exclusive path tracing.

You claimed "The money is elsewhere", Capcoms financial statements are public, the most money for them is on PC.
 
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FYI, Microsoft got a tariff waiver on all chips it makes.
Tariffs are charged on the manufactured product. They won't build XSX2 in the US.

The issue right now is that PC/Smartphones are tariff exempt.

Consoles are not. Ans the tariff rate is 15-18%. Pretty brutal quad whammy for consoles between Tariffs, TSMC Price Hikes, NAND and DRAM Supercycles.
 
Good write up. It's quite informative/interesting.

What you're essentially saying is that because the CPU accesses the memory bus at a lower rate, the effective bandwidth use of the CPU is higher. Thus my estimate of 504 GB/s for the extreme highly unlikely scenario (12/12.5GB to GPU) isn't accurate and that it should be ~477 GB/s. Or specifically, 40 * 560 / 336 =66.667. 26.7 GB/s wasted by CPU.

imo the scenario is so rare it's borderline irrelevant (a scenario where dGPU uses than 12/12.5GB). However I will engage since you put a decent amount of effort.

First, the 40 GB/s bandwidth for the CPU is on the high end.



Not a single game over 20 GB/s. Most below 10 GB/s for CPU. A game where CPU uses 500 MBs total will not have the CPU use 40 GB/s or even 20 GB/s. But lets be safe and say 20 GB/s

In other-words, CPU uses 20 * 560 / 336 = 33.3 GB/s

Instead of a 504 GB/s effective memory BW as I said. It's 504 - (33.3-20) = 491 GB/s once you account for CPU's accesses being slower.

This is an interesting technical discussion. However, this isn't a useful one. XSX having a slightly lesser memory bw lead over PS5 under extreme conditions doesn't explain WHY PS5 is beating it. This is why I was getting irritated.

The actual story of why XSX is losing is the weaker front end. And it's being buried while we discuss precisely how much faster is XSX's memory bandwidth.

And it's the relevant conversation since magnus has a 26-31% stronger backend and 33% stronger front end at the same clock. And magnus is expected to clock higher, has more than double the L2 cache and has a wider unified memory bus.

This is what I meant by saying that PS6 Can't compete and that Magnus is basically a PS6 Pro. Sony tied last gen because MSFT fumbled. Xbox haven't repeated XSX's mistakes.


The delta between the PS5 and the Pro is going to be bigger than that between the PS6 and Magnus though; The difference will be trivial in the end. Nevermind the fact that comparing the two is a futile exercise: Magnus will be a niche/boutique product. The idea of an Xbox as a viable alternative has died.
 
Got right ahead and refuse to engage the point. Fact is, most of Capcoms unit sales are PC. That is not up for debate. All right there in the quarterly financials. So is the fact PC is their single largest revenue slice. Also not up for debate. Capcom has also stated, repeatedly, that PC is their primary platform. Also, you guessed it, not up for debate.

But no, I suppose adding some DRM totally negates that point. Damn, Riot Games must not see PC as their primary platform either! LoL has Kernel level anticheat after all. What's that? Valve has DRM as well? Shit, guess even Valve doesn't consider PC to be their main platform.
 
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fully committing to a PC storefront and positioning it as a real rival to Steam is probably their best strategic move going forward.
MS can never rival Steam with their own storefront.

But as a launcher Xbox App could be competitive in the living room if they can nail the fullscreen experience. It can run more games than Steam, since it's Windows, and with less fiddling, since it adds other launcher games automatically.
 
The delta between the PS5 and the Pro is going to be bigger than that between the PS6 and Magnus though;
The delta between PS5 and PS5 Pro:
(Roughly)
+10% CPU
+45% GPU

The Delta between XSX2 and PS6 (Orion):
+25-35% CPU (~) (Assuming 7c vs 3p + 5c)
+30-50% GPU (~)

IDK about you, doesn't seem smaller to me. and PS5 Pro was underutilized.
 
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45% is pretty much max, closer to 30% average in games.
The GPU is objectively 60%+ more powerful. There is no two ways around it. The 28% BW is limiting it but that's only as long as you just use raw power to brute force things, which is not for what it was designed for.
 
The GPU is objectively 60%+ more powerful. There is no two ways around it. The 28% BW is limiting it but that's only as long as you just use raw power to brute force things, which is not for what it was designed for.
It's not. It's +67% GPU Backend, +50% GPU Frontend, +28% MEM BW.

PS5 barely had enough memory bandwidth (no IC, etc). PS5 Pro GPU is a BW starved design.

The entire thing adds up to +45% Faster Raster Rendering as Cerny said.

The CPU is not that good though. There is a reason the CPU boost mode is used most of the time.
 
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Please.

Android OEMs are going to be down 8-15%. PC will be down 10%+. And that's with PC shifting 16GB SKUs to 8GB and 32GB SKUs to 16GB. GeForce is down 15-20%. There is no RTX 50 Super series anymore.

There is real demand destruction going on.
We aren't seeing those cards because AI chips takes up a lot of wafers.

MI355X for example interposers are so large (~2500–3000 mm²+), that you can only get ~12 per wafer and then you still need a wafer for the I/O die and compute die. While PS5 is around ~191 chips per wafer.

That shows you where the real demand is, wafers. RAM has only gotten expansive because of AI demand, not because of shortages.

This guy explained what is really going on best.


Or you are right and Sony should just cancel the PS6 instead of delaying and stop selling PS5s since there is no return of previous RAM prices in sight.

DRAM & NAND Shortages Will Extend Beyond 2030, Warns Phison CEO, Citing an Industry 'Structural Shift' That Will Destroy Consumer Businesses
Foundries are demanding 3 years of prepaid payment (unprecedented in the electronics industry), with the seller's market at an all-time high. Internal estimates from foundries suggest shortages will persist until 2030, or even potentially for a decade with no end in sight.

- Phison's CEO
 
The delta between PS5 and PS5 Pro:
(Roughly)
+10% CPU
+45% GPU

The Delta between XSX2 and PS6 (Orion):
+25-35% CPU (~) (Assuming 7c vs 3p + 5c)
+30-50% GPU (~)

IDK about you, doesn't seem smaller to me. and PS5 Pro was underutilized.

You have to account for the overhead tied to Magnus being Windows based. And if the Pro was underutilized, then Magnus will most certainly be. The platform will have ZERO exclusive for God's sake.
 
High price is one thing but going by rumors it's also a beast of a box feature-wise.

Imagine if it can run previous generations Xbox games, plus games from Steam, Epic Games Store, GOG, Microsoft Store, Gamepass, allow emulators, mods, no online paywall, and have a nice design and is silent and works well with a controller on the TV.
So, a PC. Gotcha, haha.

A nice set of features for sure, but even still, paying such a price for a console seems so foreign to me. If anyone I know don't mind spending a $1,000+ on a console, I'll make sure to be screaming from the rooftops to allow me to build them a PC that will stretch its leg further than a $1,000 console can.
 
You have to account for the overhead tied to Magnus being Windows based
There is no meaningful overhead. Xbox Full Screen Experience doesn't load windows.

It's DX12 + WinNT Kernel. Same as XSX.

Pro was underutilized because it needed devs to go out of their way for it. Magnus will just crank up the settings menu.
MI355X for example interposers are so large (~2500–3000 mm²+), that you can only get ~12 per wafer and then you still need a wafer for the I/O die and compute die. While PS5 is around ~191 chips per wafer.
The interposer is CoWoS-S. That shit is ultra mature lmao. (Like 65/40nm). It's a completely different planet vs PS5 (7/6nm).
That shows you where the real demand is, wafers. RAM has only gotten expansive because of AI demand, not because of shortages.
This is oxymoronic. AI memory demand is why there is a shortage in supply for consumer market.

There is a shortage of memory AND a shortage of advanced logic (TSMC). Memory shortage is a lot worse.
Or you are right and Sony should just cancel the PS6 instead of delaying and stop selling PS5s since there is no return of previous RAM prices in sight.
2025 RAM/NAND Prices are never coming back. Memory was severely underpriced due to circumstances that won't be replicated again.

PS6 Handheld should be launch-able in 2027.

By 2028-2029 that they might be launch PS6 at 749$. If tariffs go away and memory prices go down they can make a profit on it like they did with PS5 Pro before the commodity supercycle.

As for rising memory effect on PS5/PS5 Pro, Sony already said how they'd handle it.


They will increase network revenue. AKA the online payment. Expect 100$ EoY 2026, 120$ EoY 2027. They will try to do it by getting people to move to monthly plans.

TLDR: They should do this to deal with this crisis:

2026: 80$ Online => 100$ Online (Cancel Annual)
2027: 100$ Online => 120$ Online (Cancel 3 Month)
2027: 549$ PS5 => 549$ PS6 (Canis)
2029: 749$ PS5 Pro => 749$ PS6 Pro (Orion)

I anticipate this was the plan all along (other than paid online hikes to offset RAM hikes). Orion config (30GB+2TB SSD) only made sense for a Pro.
 
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Not that I do not love the energy ;).
And they did too

The PS3 launch was a sellout in most of the world.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6135452.stm
The phone argument has been made for over a decade and has mostly been proven to not apply to video game consoles.
The way people pay for phones is entirely different than how consoles are paid for.
Almost everyone rolls their phone hard ware costs into their monthly payment for the phone service.
Unless you want Sony/ MS / Nintendo to start doing lease to own services to get their hardware, it's not a good argument.
I feel you missed the point, so let me be more clear.

Listen to some here unless you're at the top of the sales, you can't make money or be profitable. I would imagine, despite Google Pixel phones being nowhere near the sales of iPhone or the Galaxy, the Pixel range of phones is still profitable, same goes for AMD in the GPU sector?.

And please, I know people who buy their kids the latest phone or Tablet outright for their kids' birthdays, never mind Christmas and never mind on contract. And we live in the age of Pay in 3 and all that or even add a new console with you mobile phone contract. Not like when I was a teenager, where you had to pay for the console outright in cash or look to use mum's catalogue account... Ahhh, the good old days
 
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A nice set of features for sure, but even still, paying such a price for a console seems so foreign to me.
Like you said, it's a PC. But also a console, kinda, since it supposedly run Xbox console games through backwards compatibility.

Where it can stumble is on power. PC games need more power than the equivalent console version. Devs sometimes don't even allow console settings at all. DF have many videos about this.
But if it's powerful it could be a great device.
 
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