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[Unknown Soldier]

Leave the people enjoying the game to their own devices. Hell I created the BO7 OT so I appreciate that those threads are available as an escape from the viral internet pile-on.

Conversely there's also nothing wrong with us chortling in here enjoying the schadenfreude of another Sony live service flop, especially after they canned Bluepoint two weeks ago.

I'm personally glad that GAF finally figured out to do that for OT's

Let's see if they will extend this protection to the next Final Fantasy game. The FF16 OT thread was a fucking shithole because people were allowed to constantly shit on that game's sales instead of talk about the game

 

[Deerock71]

So...is this another rare incel victory? I saw something on this page that kind of leads me to believe so.

 

[T4keD0wN]

So it wont even break 100k as a peak.

Perhaps not, however:

 

[Kacho]

Perhaps not, however:

Seeing 69,014 players now. Already going down again?

 

[TheMan]

Seeing 69,014 players now. Already going down again?

Yeah it was in the 70s earlier today

Personally I've been wavering on buying this, but at this rate I'm not sure this game is gonna have legs and Sony is not afraid to cut the cord on dying live service games.

 

[Roman Empire]

Perhaps not, however:

Nice. Too bad we don't have any clue what are the console numbers. But going by these metrics, the game is doing reasonably well but not well enough for a studio the size of Bungie.

Idk how player population will hold until the endgame map aboard the Marathon ship releases. We have a couple more days until then, and I expect Bungie to be counting on that to give a bump into player numbers. But at this rate it could be that this bump doesn't even help to reach the release date numbers, let alone surpassing it.

Not saying the game is doomed already, but I can't deny the reality of this not being a good look for Bungie if they aim for Marathon being their top dog that pays their bills. And Sony hasn't been that much more patient about live service games not being a hit from day 1. May Bungie embrace for the worst if the player count doesn't rise.

 

[Kacho]

Yeah it was in the 70s earlier today

Personally I've been wavering on buying this, but at this rate I'm not sure this game is gonna have legs and Sony is not afraid to cut the cord on dying live service games.

Yeah, consecutive days of decline during the launch weekend does not bode well for the games future. We shall see.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

Seeing 69,014 players now. Already going down again?

It's going to have a double peak like it did the last 2 days. It should start going back up soon.

But damn, I really thought it would peak higher today than launch day but now that's looking unlikely

 

[Kacho]

It's going to have a double peak like it did the last 2 days. It should start going back up soon.

But damn, I really thought it would peak higher today than launch day but now that's looking unlikely

Looks like you're right. Going back up now.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

 

[Sakura]

85k daily peak CCU's on Steam would most likely generate over 1000mil per year for GAAS games.

A billion a year from what? This ain't a gacha game bro.

 

[LyricalShrike]

Yeah it was in the 70s earlier today

Personally I've been wavering on buying this, but at this rate I'm not sure this game is gonna have legs and Sony is not afraid to cut the cord on dying live service games.

I'm in the same boat. I'll buy marathon on sale or play a bit if it goes f2p to play with friends. It's not a game I enjoyed playing alone and I'm extremely hesitant about spending on live service games before the launch high wears off.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

A billion a year from what? This ain't a gacha game bro.

I might add that the billion-a-year gachas like Genshin Impact, Honkai Star Rail, Wuthering Waves, etc. have way way more than 85k daily players. Their daily player count numbers in the tens of millions. The gacha business model is so unlike the business model of CoD, Battlefield, Destiny, and Marathon that you can't compare them

 

[Conflict NZ]

Clearly, people went out partying on Saturday night.
Once they get home, oh boy, those numbers are gonna skyrocket.

I remember when people used to unironically claim this would happen, has a game with mediocre numbers every actually improved?

 

[kevboard]

I remember when people used to unironically claim this would happen, has a game with mediocre numbers every actually improved?

it's rare. it's usually a game that flies under the radar for a while, and then gets mainstream attention. like Among Us, or the first Splitgate.

for a game with tons of PR going in, it's very very rare and a slow process

 

[FoxMcChief]

That's the face my wife makes when I "accidentally" use the wrong entrance.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Modern audiences stays undefeated.

 

[Plague Doctor]

Another telltale sign is when defenders try to OT'ify non-OT threads in an attempt to make the appearance that the situation is not that bad.

You know....

I didn't really fully grasp what you meant when you responded to me initially or thought it was hyperbole for the sake of humor...

but, damn.... you were not kidding. I don't think born again converts are as evangelical across all threads as fans of this game. I hope Bungei's official PR are as dedicated.

 

[zaga]

Yeah it was in the 70s earlier today

Personally I've been wavering on buying this, but at this rate I'm not sure this game is gonna have legs and Sony is not afraid to cut the cord on dying live service games.

If you think that is a possibility, it is a great game and worth playing before that happens. Sony would refund everyone anyway

 

[Kacho]

Yo DonkeyPunchJr its going back down again. Did it fluctuate like this last night?

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

Yo DonkeyPunchJr its going back down again. Did it fluctuate like this last night?

 

[Yamisan]

lmao, thats terrible. Game already flopped.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

Yo DonkeyPunchJr its going back down again. Did it fluctuate like this last night?

IDK maybe StreetsofBeige ran the numbers through his Matlab scripts and can give us the complete breakdown.

 

[T4keD0wN]

Legends say one would need a 20 page manual to tell which character is from which game.

Also, what is Kuma from Tekken doin here?

 

[MayauMiao]

Clearly, people went out partying on Saturday night.
Once they get home, oh boy, those numbers are gonna skyrocket.

On Sunday, players are attending church or family barbeques.

 

[bender]

On Sunday, players are attending church or family barbeques.

Today was actually...

 

[Raven117]

Clearly, people went out partying on Saturday night.
Once they get home, oh boy, those numbers are gonna skyrocket.

lol. You clearly haven't met gamers.

I mean, this is about what I expected. It's not concord (it never was going to be that), but it doesn't seem to have captured the zehgeist of gamers.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Timberrrrr!

My prediction of 80k was off. The trending earlier today tailed off. The peak CCU is 75k today, and now at 72k on a Saturday night (at 10 pm EST). Last night at the same time it was 78k.

CCU is already going down on launch weekend.

 

[DForce]

Numbers should have gone up, but they have declined.

They probably want to survive until the next update and probably offer a free weekend and a discounted price.

There's a small chance they'll be able to turn this around.

 

[Darchaos]

Fuck, even the AI wants in on this! One of them just sent me this little beuty and i mean its not much worse then Bungos take on an Exfil-shooter!


Yo yo, wake up Runner, Tau Ceti's on the line,
Bungie's back in the lab, trying to redefine.
But the UI's a neon maze, eyes getting blurry,
Trying to loot a chest in a desperate hurry.
The extraction's tight, but the hook is missing,
While the hardcore fans are sitting and hissing.
Eighty-six thousand at the gate, then it stalled,
The "next big thing" feeling small and walled.

It's flippity floppity, the hype's losing traction,
Looking for a win but only finding distraction.
Flippity floppity, the numbers in a dive,
Can this extraction shooter even stay alive?
From the peak to the pit, it's a slippery slope,
Drowning in the neon, losing all the hope.

Art style's popping, yeah the colors are bright,
But the PvE bots don't put up a fight.
They say "Let 'em cook," but the kitchen's on fire,
Microtransaction prices pushing fans to retire.
Is it a marathon or a sprint to the end?

The charts are looking like a broken trend.
If you ain't got the depth, then you're just a ghost,
In a crowded genre where the mid get roast.

It's flippity floppity, the hype's losing traction,
Looking for a win but only finding distraction.
Flippity floppity, the numbers in a dive,
Can this extraction shooter even stay alive?

Better patch it fast, better find the core,
Before the players walk right out the door.

 

[icecold1983]

Perhaps not, however:

This doesn't mean what you think it means. The likelihood of this being a 5-10k daily CCU title has just seen a huge increase with these weekend stats. That is an absolute disaster financially.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Timberrrrr!

My prediction of 80k was off. The trending earlier today tailed off. The peak CCU is 75k today, and now at 72k on a Saturday night (at 10 pm EST). Last night at the same time it was 78k.

CCU is already going down on launch weekend.

This is pretty bad. The drop is minimal, but this kind of pattern is usually seen in games well into their lifecycle. The 4th map may have little impact on the overall peak CCU when it drops.
If word of mouth doesn't improve, sales will plummet pretty hard. The 2nd week will be very interesting. At this point, Bungie has to hope the numbers plateau around 50–70K

 

[TheMan]

This doesn't mean what you think it means. The likelihood of this being a 5-10k daily CCU title has just seen a huge increase with these weekend stats. That is an absolute disaster financially.

He was making a joke about the number 69420 being a reference to sex and weed

 

[Mortisfacio]

This is pretty bad. The drop is minimal, but this kind of pattern is usually seen in games well into their lifecycle. The 4th map may have little impact on the overall peak CCU when it drops.
If word of mouth doesn't improve, sales will plummet pretty hard. The 2nd week will be very interesting. At this point, Bungie has to hope the numbers plateau around 50–70K

Yup. This game needs to find a floor. Not hitting a new high peak CCU during launch weekend usually spells disaster for most games.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

This is pretty bad. The drop is minimal, but this kind of pattern is usually seen in games well into their lifecycle. The 4th map may have little impact on the overall peak CCU when it drops.
If word of mouth doesn't improve, sales will plummet pretty hard. The 2nd week will be very interesting. At this point, Bungie has to hope the numbers plateau around 50–70K

Maybe the 4th map will help retain buyers from leaving, but i dont see how it affects people who havent bought it yet.

I dont get a sense gamers are itching to buy the game "only when the 4th map is released". I'd bet most gamers havent even followed or know about a 4th map.

It'd be like COD gamers. If you want it, you buy it. If you dont like it, you wont. Dont think too many gamers are like.... "I'll get COD when they add more free maps"

Unless there's a major push that increases CCU, it'll probably creep down slowly and level off at 10-20k after a while. It's no Concord or Highguard zooming to 500 gamers. But it's not lighting the world on fire.

 

[Plague Doctor]

Real talk, other than good natured ribbing... this exact topic elsewhere and purple is filled with people clashing over whether or not consumers have the right to look at CCU data, conspiracy theories about posting publically available data, threats of moderation, people accusing other people of anting to ruin people's careers, and people getting really nasty to each other.

Basically, us here, be it defenders, detractors, or in between, are actually civil by comparison.

You guys rock at Gaf! And some of you are damn funny as well.

 

[icecold1983]

Real talk, other than good natured ribbing... this exact topic elsewhere and purple is filled with people clashing over whether or not consumers have the right to look at CCU data, conspiracy theories about posting publically available data, threats of moderation, people accusing other people of anting to ruin people's careers, and people getting really nasty to each other.

Basically, us here, be it defenders, detractors, or in between, are actually civil by comparison.

You guys rock at Gaf! And some of you are damn funny as well.

In purple land, everyone is a victim.

He was making a joke about the number 69420 being a reference to sex and weed

Oh. That one indeed went rIght over my head.

 

[havoc00]

In purple land, everyone is a victim.



Oh. That one indeed went rIght over my head.

They are insufferable

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

holy shit, after tracking well ahead of Friday for most of the day, it's now falling behind where it was 24 hours earlier. Even bombas usually see an uptick on their first weekend before the numbers start plummeting.

This thing is already in its death spiral.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Real talk, other than good natured ribbing... this exact topic elsewhere and purple is filled with people clashing over whether or not consumers have the right to look at CCU data, conspiracy theories about posting publically available data, threats of moderation, people accusing other people of anting to ruin people's careers, and people getting really nasty to each other.

Basically, us here, be it defenders, detractors, or in between, are actually civil by comparison.

You guys rock at Gaf! And some of you are damn funny as well.

Ya. Thats because they are babies.

It wasnt till Highguard I really started looking at Steamdb, but as a stat whore i find the data sets interesting.

Everyone knows weekend gaming should boost CCU, but when you dig deeper and see how different games do better or worse around the world at different time slots, it's just something cool to see in charts. And it's not even distinct peaks like a US, Europe or Asian region spike. ARC raiders actually has two spikes. A Europe spike and also a smaller US spike. Then it bottoms out as it looks like nobody cares about the game in Asia.

Then for Highguard people would bring up CCU isnt even the worst thing. The game's Top Seller's ranking is so low it means people arent buying mtx making it worse. I remember skimming that part. Highguard would be ranked at lets say 200th in CCU ranking, but their Seller's ranking would be like 1,000+.

Similar to sports gambling (I'm up $500 this season!) and my job, I also like forecasting and predicting numbers. As for sports gambling, never listen to anyone saying parlays are the worst bets. They are the best. Just got to know how to do them modestly. Almost all my bets are 4-7 multifactor parlays.

 

[rochet]

 

[Bojji]

holy shit, after tracking well ahead of Friday for most of the day, it's now falling behind where it was 24 hours earlier. Even bombas usually see an uptick on their first weekend before the numbers start plummeting.

This thing is already in its death spiral.

 

[BigBeauford]

I feel bad for the people getting attached to this game.

Like being married to someone with cancer.

Ass cancer.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Hey, I'll be honest.

The black hooded Doctor Doom guy in the top left corner doesnt look bad! Although he's got a giant metal crotch protector. LOL. But holy shit. The only other character who looks ok is the bear you can plunk into Skyrim or a D&D game.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Apparently only 2% of the Bungie that worked on Halo still remains.

And ex Apex devs made Highguard, so it looks like last hits do not guarantee new ones at least in videogames.

 

[Mortisfacio]

Looks like it's dropping. 75,133 was the saturday peak. The saturday peak was a 47.69% dropoff in CCU from the server slam peak. But it was national shake day.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Looks like it's dropping. 75,133 was the saturday peak. The saturday peak was a 47.69% dropoff in CCU from the server slam peak. But it was national shake day.

Saturday midnight is at -10%. 68k vs yesterday midnight 75k.

If the peak was 75k today, it'll probably top out around 70k tomorrow unless Sundays are a boost vs Saturday. And with the weekdays right after, the peak CCU will drop to probably 50k given the trend.

 

[OuterLimits]

holy shit, after tracking well ahead of Friday for most of the day, it's now falling behind where it was 24 hours earlier. Even bombas usually see an uptick on their first weekend before the numbers start plummeting.

This thing is already in its death spiral.

I wouldn't go that far....yet. It certainly isn't good news that it didn't exceed 87k on its first weekend.

I do think it can stabilize eventually somewhere in the 25k-50k daily peak range down the road. However, that likely doesn't make Sony happy because this game had a very high budget(including significant marketing)

Also, we don't know numbers on consoles, but i wouldn't be surprised if Steam numbers are actually significantly better than PS and Xbox.

 

[Joe Cool]

 

[Von Hugh]

Looks like it's dropping. 75,133 was the saturday peak. The saturday peak was a 47.69% dropoff in CCU from the server slam peak. But it was national shake day.