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[ByWatterson]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

Why are you thinking console sales are so much higher than PC?

 

[ByWatterson]

Why are you thinking console sales are so much higher than PC?

Big Bungie audience, Sony marketing, and honestly my old Destiny friends list are all playing it (plus two additional platforms versus one).

Even if it's 1:1, we're still likely around 1.5 to 2 million. A good start.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Big Bungie audience, Sony marketing, and honestly my old Destiny friends list are all playing it (plus two additional platforms versus one).

Even if it's 1:1, we're still likely around 1.5 to 2 million. A good start.

Resident Evil Reqium has 53k ratings on PlayStation.

Marathon has 6.4k ratings on PlayStation.

Marathon also hasn't cracked XBL Top 50 Most Played list yet...though it might need a full week to register.

It's possible that single player gamers review games at significantly higher rates than MP gamers but I'm not so sure there's really a "Bungie audience" on console. I don't think gamers really know about or care about developers.

 

[calico]

2.5m copies sold seems like pure speculation unless we have other evidence beyond the Steam numbers.

It's too early to be talking about a durable audience. If the ccu chart posted above looks similar or better in a few weeks then maybe, but there's nothing in those first few days of data which makes that seem like anything more than hopium at this point. It's not impossible, but idk what people think they're seeing in that data to be bullish about.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

I think it's so funny the dudes that go into the OT and get so mad about this thread. Putting it on ignore and all that shit, I couldn't imagine being that fragile in life wow... Mind blowing.. Imagine sending any of these fuckers off to war lol

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

 

[CowboyLou]

I think it's so funny the dudes that go into the OT and get so mad about this thread. Putting it on ignore and all that shit, I couldn't imagine being that fragile in life wow... Mind blowing.. Imagine sending any of these fuckers off to war lol

What a bizarre thing to say.

 

[Bernardougf]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

Usuless is picking numbers out of your ass and calling a opinion just like the others "literal" ...

 

[PeteBull]

Do we know how many Battlefield developers are still employed at EA? BF6 and Marathon likely have somewhat similar CCUs right now.

We dont, but we gotta assume most "battlefield devs" who are still somehow employed are gonna be put on new bf7 or w/e codename of next game gonna be.
Most of bungie wont be put on destiny3 coz thats keeping talentless and broke studio for another 5+ years, we know hermen "the hitman" hulst wont give such studio a chance (like in bluepoint's case ).

What im expecting for bungie in close future is massive layoffs across the board with only tiny skeleton crew (maybe 30 or so) that keeps destiny2 alive, and another 30 kept for same reason with marathon, every1 else laid off/put into other sony studios aka "restructured" to the highest degree, thats it

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Most of bungie wont be put on destiny3 coz thats keeping talentless and broke studio for another 5+ years, we know hermen "the hitman" hulst wont give such studio a chance (like in bluepoint's case ).

What im expecting for bungie in close future is massive layoffs across the board with only tiny skeleton crew (maybe 30 or so) that keeps destiny2 alive, and another 30 kept for same reason with marathon, every1 else laid off/put into other sony studios aka "restructured" to the highest degree, thats it

 

[DeaDPo0L84]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

I actually like the game and this is still total nonsense.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Tassi makes some good points here...

 

[PeteBull]

Thats how modern audience gaas games multiply currently, yeh, doesnt make them good investments tho, its just ez for those projects to be funded coz for some unknown reason(they likely hope for another fortnite which will never happen ever again) publishers aka suits who never play any games are easily deceived into funding them

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

What a bizarre thing to say.

So bizarre because it's true

 

[Negotiator101]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

Pack it up guy's, everything is fine it's on the "low" end of solid

 

[Flabagast]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

LMAO you are just making up figures out of your ass.

How can you call that facts ?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Usuless is picking numbers out of your ass and calling a opinion just like the others "literal" ...

Picked the high end for PC. Then made console sales 3x PC. Got it.

 

[Plague Doctor]

Been away a day or two. Noticed this thread is 5 pages longer than the OT. Which stage of the copium cycle are we in?

 

[CowboyLou]

So bizarre because it's true

Fantasizing about sending people off to war because they enjoy a game is weird, bro. But you do you.

 

[TintoConCasera]

Been away a day or two. Noticed this thread is 5 pages longer than the OT. Which stage of the copium cycle are we in?

This stage:

low end of "solid."

Which sounds like something a person with erectile disfunction would say.

 

[Bernardougf]

Picked the high end for PC. Then made console sales 3x PC. Got it.

 

[Bernardougf]

Been away a day or two. Noticed this thread is 5 pages longer than the OT. Which stage of the copium cycle are we in?

Conjuring sales numbers from beyond

 

[StreetsofBeige]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

Big Bungie audience, Sony marketing, and honestly my old Destiny friends list are all playing it (plus two additional platforms versus one).

Even if it's 1:1, we're still likely around 1.5 to 2 million. A good start.

So PC sales are 650k. At a 1:1 ratio with consoles it's still 1.5 - 2M. Got it.

 

[Karma_Games]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

 

[Dr. Samuel Hayden]

"It has way more players on console" bros... I don't feel so good...

 

[StreetsofBeige]

On a real data note, Marathon is tracking about -10% vs yesterday at the same hour (11 am EST). Yesterday, the peak was 66k and the low was 22.5k. At current trend, it'll be down to 60k and 20k.

 

[Bernardougf]

"It has way more players on console" bros... I don't feel so good...

Oh no ByWatterson ... your ass told you lies.

 

[Zannegan]

Fantasizing about sending people off to war because they enjoy a game is weird, bro. But you do you.

That is a wild mischaracterization (or, at best, misread) of a comment very clearly aimed at mocking people for being fragile. "Fantasizing about sending people off to war because they enjoy a game," is crazy.

 

[CowboyLou]

That is a wild mischaracterization (or, at best, misread) of a comment very clearly aimed at mocking people for being fragile. "Fantasizing about sending people off to war because they enjoy a game," is crazy.

If that's where someone's thoughts go when bantering about videogames, it says a lot about them.

 

[kpopSuperstar]

Big Bungie audience, Sony marketing, and honestly my old Destiny friends list are all playing it (plus two additional platforms versus one).

Even if it's 1:1, we're still likely around 1.5 to 2 million. A good start.

How can it be 1.5 million if it's 1:1, when PC is 650K? you think Xbox matches Playstation sales?

At the absolute high end, it could have sold 700 on PC, 900 on Playstation and maybe 200 on Xbox. I think that is the absolute max we could assume, around 1.8 million total.

At the other end of the spectrum, it could have sold 500 on pc, 600 on Playstation and 100 on Xbox. 1.2 million total.

If I had to guess, I would guess around 1.4 million have been sold across all platforms.

At a lower price point, it's far from good enough. They desperately need growth. There will be a natural decline over the next few weeks, and they can't sustain the game if it gets too low.

Destiny 2 is massively expensive to run, Marathon should be cheaper, but it still needs hundreds of thousands of monthly unique players to be viable.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

On a real data note, Marathon is tracking about -10% vs yesterday at the same hour (11 am EST). Yesterday, the peak was 66k and the low was 22.5k. At current trend, it'll be down to 60k and 20k.

What is ARC Raiders tracking today vs yesterday?

 

[yurinka]

Sony has no real pipeline of gaas games. They have Horizon Gatherings and Fairgames announced.

They have announced MLB The Show 26, Marvel Tokon, Horizon Hunters Gathering, 4loop, Convallaria, Fairgame$, plus the unannounced Team LFG game which seems to be on track to be released next year. Plus they'll keep updating Destiny 2, Gran Turismo 7, Helldivers 2 and Marathon.

In mobile they have announced Horizon Steel Frontiers, Ratchet & Clank: Ranger Rumble and MLB The Show Mobile and keep updating Destiny Rising.

 

[Antwix]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

According to Grok, running Bungie costs roughly 2.7x more than running Crytek (Seattle, WA vs Frankfurt, Germany).

Right now, Marathon is 3.8x more popular than Hunt Showdown.

Hunt Showdown is Cryteks most profitable game in studio history. Marathons current CCU is profitable and it has a bit of cushion, but it doesn't have an absurd amount of cushion.

Cryo Archive, early adjustments, and Season 2 will give us a much clearer picture of where Marathon will settle. So far I'm optimistic, but it's certainly a game everyone will be tracking over the next 3 months.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

What is ARC Raiders tracking today vs yesterday?

About the same % drop as Marathon.

Eyeballing numbers using 11 am EST for other shooters:

BF6 +2%
Apex +1%
Delta Force flat
OW flat
H2 flat
RS Siege -2%
TF2 -2%
Deadlock -3%
CS2 -5%
Warframe -6%

 

[Katatonic]

It's funny to me that after decades of searching for the elusive "Halo killer", they actually buy Bungie but have them put this out instead of a dope ass co op campaign with a MP node that could be morphed into GAAS for those who want it.

 

[Nydius]

6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Let's assume all your "facts" are true. I'm sure Sony is thrilled they spent $3.6bn to acquire Bungie for their big GaaS push and allowed Bungie to spend somewhere north of $150m on Marathon development plus marketing for a "small, but apparently durable audience".

Edit: (Read "thrilled" in your best Corbin Dallas/Fifth Element sarcasm impression.)

 

[yurinka]

Why are you thinking console sales are so much higher than PC?

We still don't have any data or quote from console to compare, but both Sony and Bungie traditionally sold more in console than in PC, Helldivers 2 seems to be the exception where they made more money on PC.

Maybe things with Marathon can change and follow the Helldivers 2 pattern, but looking at their previous cases seems more likely that they would sell more in console.

I'm sure Sony is thrilled they spent $3.6bn to acquire Bungie for their big GaaS push and allowed Bungie to spend somewhere north of $150m on Marathon development plus marketing for a "small, but apparent durable audience".

(Read "thrilled" in your best Corbin Dallas/Fifth Element sarcasm impression.)

The acquisition was $2.4B, and then were up to $1.2B in bonuses of which at least part of them weren't needed to be paid. And it wasn't just to buy Marathon (and its potential sequels and off-gaming adaptations).

It was to also acquire the Bungie brand, the Destiny brand (2 plus Rising and upcoming games and off-gaming adaptations), plus the team that was being incubated there (TeamLFG) with its game and potential future games and off-gaming adaptations, plus staff that was going to be moved to multiple SIE/PS Studios central teams to among other things get their knowledge, expertise, data and tools mostly in GaaS specific areas (but also in others like IP creation, MP or shooterS).

All this combined obviously the idea is that in the long term plan they would recoup it and generate extra profit. But obviously no multi billion acquisition gets recoupled in a couple years. We saw things like Destiny 2 being one of the top grossing games of the year on Steam or the Epic store almost every year, but very likely they don't expect to recoup the investment in at least over half a decade starting to count the acquisition.

 

[KyoZz]

Progression and social hooks retain players, not gunplay.

This is way too absolute. If the gameplay/gunplay is shit a game has NO HOPE in retaining players who will not stay just to unlock another skin for a weapon with a shitty feeling. You need to build a very, VERY good core gameplay to retain players (look at Helldivers II).
If the shooting feels like ass, floaty, unresponsive, unsatisfying recoil, no weight, bad audio feedback etc etc... no battle pass, no skins, no Discord lobbies, and no progression loop will keep most players grinding for months/years.

I've long felt "gunplay" is extremely overrated in theses parts. Roblox gunplay feels...???...and it's the biggest game on earth.

Apples to bowling balls. Roblox isn't a shooter, it's a platform with millions of user-made experiences.

Roblox retains because it's free, with infinite variety, social hangout/creativity + FOMO events. The gunplay is just good enough not to get in the way. If every Roblox shooter suddenly had god-tier gunfeel tomorrow, player counts wouldn't 10x as the platform's hooks are elsewhere.
Saying "Roblox gunplay is mid and it's the biggest game" is like saying "Mario Kart physics are basic and it's huge, therefore precise driving sims are overrated." Different games, different audiences.

The real nuance: progression, seasons, social features, events, and cosmetics are retention multipliers not substitutes. They turn a "damn this feels good" game into a "I can't stop logging in" habit. But they only work if the core loop is at least very good. If it's shit, the multipliers do nothing and players will just chase the carrot for a week or two then ghost.

Think beyond your bias Men in Boxes.

 

[GermanZepp]

Sony has no real pipeline of gaas games. They have Horizon Gatherings and Fairgames announced. They would be stupid to not invest heavily in Marathon at this point

Looking foward to the CCU threads for those games. At least we can have a laugh and some fun there.

 

[bender]

Think beyond your bias Men in Boxes.

 

[falconhoof]

Been away a day or two. Noticed this thread is 5 pages longer than the OT. Which stage of the copium cycle are we in?

We've had:

* Wait till week 3 cause it's really gonna pop off then
* As soon as a new map drops the word of mouth is going to pick up and CCU will go over 100k
* Numbers are low, but that's a good thing trust be bro

So from what I can understand, the current numbers are fine and don't need to grow for a AAA game with a possible $400M (dev+marketing) budget, but the numbers will grow to show how strong the game is because current numbers are fine, but to prove that by growing to show how bigger numbers prove current numbers are as fine as previously stated.

 

[PeteBull]

We still don't have any data or quote from console to compare, but both Sony and Bungie traditionally sold more in console than in PC, Helldivers 2 seems to be the exception where they made more money on PC.

Maybe things with Marathon can change and follow the Helldivers 2 pattern, but looking at their previous cases seems more likely that they would sell more in console.

If marathon was new blockbuster halo-killer singpleplayer IP, with 2 years later port on pc and only had that lil ccu on steam i would totally agree with ur train of thoughts, unfortunately for us players and sony/bungie, it has nothing to do with such a game.

 

[Signalis]

Let's assume all your "facts" are true. I'm sure Sony is thrilled they spent $3.6bn to acquire Bungie for their big GaaS push and allowed Bungie to spend somewhere north of $150m on Marathon development plus marketing for a "small, but apparently durable audience".

Edit: (Read "thrilled" in your best Corbin Dallas/Fifth Element sarcasm impression.)

Still one of my favourite movies of all time.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Both Sony and Bungie traditionally sold more in console than in PC, Helldivers 2 seems to be the exception where they made more money on PC.

I don't think most gamers think like this. Places like NeoGAF really overestimate the amount of value the average gamer places on a developers name.

Plus, the PC audience definitely skews older with a larger draw for more complex games. That's Marathon. Paul Tassi also said Marathon is primarily being played on PC.

I'm sure there were some Riot fans (League of Legends & Valorant) tried out 2KX0 but that's the value of "Bungie fans)

 

[FoxMcChief]

It's a "Sony" game my man. It's expected.

 

[GooseMan69]

Metal Gear: Low End of Solid

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

This is way too absolute. If the gameplay/gunplay is shit a game has NO HOPE in retaining players who will not stay just to unlock another skin for a weapon with a shitty feeling. You need to build a very, VERY good core gameplay to retain players (look at Helldivers II).
If the shooting feels like ass, floaty, unresponsive, unsatisfying recoil, no weight, bad audio feedback etc etc... no battle pass, no skins, no Discord lobbies, and no progression loop will keep most players grinding for months/years.

I honestly think this is preposterous. Gunplay has the most value up front. The longer you play a game the less you feel the gunplay as you get used to how a game feels.

In no way, is there any developer on earth who thinks gunplay/gunfeel keeps players engaged long term. Player adoption, sure a case could be made there.

Apples to bowling balls. Roblox isn't a shooter, it's a platform with millions of user-made experiences.

The majority of Roblox games are shooters. Gunplay is overvalued here.

Roblox retains because it's free, with infinite variety, social hangout/creativity + FOMO events. The gunplay is just good enough not to get in the way. If every Roblox shooter suddenly had god-tier gunfeel tomorrow, player counts wouldn't 10x as the platform's hooks are elsewhere.
Saying "Roblox gunplay is mid and it's the biggest game" is like saying "Mario Kart physics are basic and it's huge, therefore precise driving sims are overrated." Different games, different audiences.

The real nuance: progression, seasons, social features, events, and cosmetics are retention multipliers not substitutes. They turn a "damn this feels good" game into a "I can't stop logging in" habit. But they only work if the core loop is at least very good. If it's shit, the multipliers do nothing and players will just chase the carrot for a week or two then ghost.

Think beyond your bias Men in Boxes.

I don't think Roblox became the biggest game in the world because of its great feeling gunplay.

 

[Zacfoldor]

This thread is just lame at this point. Here are all the summary facts:

1. The Steam sales appear relatively strong, somewhere around 650k.
2. The CCU is on the low end of "solid."
3. The console sales probably put overall purchases at around 2.5 million.
4. At $40, Bungie has injected enough revenue to build this game out.
5. They probably can build it out, as user reviews are very strong.
6. It clearly has found a small, but apparently durable audience.

Literally any other takes are super useless.

I think you may be overestimating the console stats here.