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[Gaiff]

STS2 doesnt have console versions so lets be generous here and multiply marathon's ccu times 2, even then it looks like 1m marathon copies sold vs proper 3m from the indie game

Even if we doubled those numbers, they wouldn't come close to 2 million. Helldivers 2 sold 3 million in 2 weeks. Marathon sold 2 million in 1 week? So it's tracking as well or better than Helldivers 2?

Know what's funny too? Those estimates are from CCUs and review counts...which that crowd argued was meaningless just yesterday.

 

[Mengy]

If that were true, wouldn't the CCU numbers be much higher than they are?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Gamalytic is totally unreliable when it comes to estimation.

We already got the sales numbers for the dev themself for Slay the Spire 2 and Gamalytic, off by a whopping 2.2 million units.

So 3M vs 5.2M. So theyre off by 42%. Or their absolute ratio is 58% of the estimate. Sounds about right with their shitty forecasting systems. No matter which methodology they use, each game's accuracy has an avg accuracy of only 60-80%.

How to accurately estimate Steam game sales

An overview of Steam game prices, sales, ratings and much more!

gamalytic.com

 

[Loomy]

If that were true, wouldn't the CCU numbers be much higher than they are?

Arc Raiders has sold more than 14 million copies, and they've only had a peak concurrent players of 960k in January. Not everyone is on the same schedule.

 

[Mengy]

Arc Raiders has sold more than 14 million copies, and they've only had a peak concurrent players of 960k in January. Not everyone is on the same schedule.

But Arc Raiders sold about 4 million copies in its first two weeks and it was getting CCU's of 400K-500K at that time. So if Marathon has sold 2 million so far it should be seeing CCU's much more like 200K, not 50K?

 

[Loomy]

But Arc Raiders sold about 4 million copies in its first two weeks and it was getting CCU's of 400K-500K at that time. So if Marathon has sold 2 million so far it should be seeing CCU's much more like 200K, not 50K?

Point is there's no correlation pattern between sales and CCU that can be universally applied to every game. Arc was/is an infinitely more popular game than Marathon, so the relationship between sales and CCU would not be the same.

Not saying I believe Marathon has sold 2 million copies. You shouldn't believe or make any assumptions about sales until Sony or Bungie puts something out. Everything else is an uninformed guess.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Arc Raiders has sold more than 14 million copies, and they've only had a peak concurrent players of 960k in January. Not everyone is on the same schedule.

ARC is a different case since the game came out last October so it's natural it trends down in gamers, while sales always go up. Never the less comparing your stats, total sales to peak CCU is a 14:1 ratio.

StS2 is 3M sales with peak CCU of 575k and the 24H is still holding up at 556k. CCU hasnt tanked yet. Thats about a 5.5:1 ratio

Marathon with peak CCU of 88k, already down to 60k peaks. At 2M Steam sales that's a 23:1 ratio.

You dont think Marathon looks out of place?

 

[MayauMiao]

It's got some big competition this weekend so I don't think it will reach the lofty player counts it had last weekend…

Turns out this is the Concord 3 and not Marathon.

 

[drotahorror]

But Arc Raiders sold about 4 million copies in its first two weeks and it was getting CCU's of 400K-500K at that time. So if Marathon has sold 2 million so far it should be seeing CCU's much more like 200K, not 50K?

When looking at CCU a good metric is that it's about 10% of total sales from everything I've seen. I reckon Marathon has sold 500-600k on PC.

 

[Loomy]

ARC is a different case since the game came out last October so it's natural it trends down in gamers, while sales always go up. Never the less comparing your stats, total sales to peak CCU is a 14:1 ratio.

StS2 is 3M sales with peak CCU of 575k and the 24H is still holding up at 556k. CCU hasnt tanked yet. Thats about a 5.5:1 ratio

Marathon with peak CCU of 88k, already down to 60k peaks. At 2M Steam sales that's a 23:1 ratio.

You dont think Marathon looks out of place?

3 games, 3 completely different trends. Compare 10 games, and you'll likely get 10 different trends.

Point I'm trying to articulate is we can't use accurate data (steam ccu) and compare it with guestimations with wild margins of error.

So, to answer Mengy 's question:

If that were true, wouldn't the CCU numbers be much higher than they are?

Do I think Marathon has sold 2m copies in a week? No, I don't.

It's most likely an over estimation. So we shouldn't include it in equations with Steam CCU numbers.

 

[Black_Stride]

Its a slap in the face to real journalists like those at Kotaku. Wait I mean Eurogamer. Wait, I mean like Thegamer. Wait, I mean like PC Gamer. Wait, I mean like IGN. Wait...

Vara vs pretty much any of the IGN, GameSpot or ACG reviewers really is a slap in the face.

 

[Loomy]

Arc Raiders Boss Says Bungie Did a 'Really Good Job' Addressing Feedback After 'Heavily Criticized' Marathon Playtest

Arc Raiders Boss Says Bungie Did a 'Really Good Job' Addressing Feedback After 'Heavily Criticized' Marathon Playtest - IGN

Patrick Söderlund, CEO of Arc Raiders developer Embark Studios, is praising Bungie after the Marathon team managed to effectively address playtest feedback “in a very short period of time.”

www.ign.com

"I know their technical test last year was heavily criticized," Söderlund said. "Whether that was accurate or fair, I can't tell you. But what I can tell you is that, even though the feedback may be a little mixed, it looks like the team has done a really good job of turning what was a big problem around in a very short period of time. That's unusual."

He continued, wishing Bungie the best now that the team has applied that feedback to the launch build: "So credit to that team and to the work that they have done with the game. I hope that they do well."

"I feel like [Marathon] is more PvP [player vs. player] prone," he added when comparing the differences between Marathon and Arc Raiders. "PvE [player vs. environment] doesn't feel like the focus of that game. But there are a lot of things in there that I actually like that they've done well. I like that what I do in the game is linked to my progression. There are many things in there that I actually think they've done a good job with."

In a sea of people waking every day and cheering for games they don't like to fail and cackling over bullshit like 'flopathon', why not try to be like this guy?

 

[Guilty_AI]

In a sea of people waking every day and cheering for games they don't like to fail and cackling over bullshit like 'flopathon', why not try to be like this guy?

 

[Stuart360]

If that were true, wouldn't the CCU numbers be much higher than they are?

One of the guesstimates people use on Steam with a new game is 10 times top CCU to get a ballpark sales figure, which would be about right it seems.

 

[Loomy]

As long as you know you have a choice lol

 

[StreetsofBeige]

One of the guesstimates people use on Steam with a new game is 10 times top CCU to get a ballpark sales figure, which would be about right it seems.

Who knows if 10x is true, but I've seen that ratio. If it was 88k, then it being 1M-ish on PC seems a lot more reasonable than 2M. But even 1M might be too much.

If StS2 which has daily peak CCU of 550k-ish is confirmed at 3M sales in the same week, I dont see how Marathon at 88k (and trending down from day one too) can come close to 2M.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

In a sea of people waking every day and cheering for games they don't like to fail and cackling over bullshit like 'flopathon', why not try to be like this guy?

 

[Stuart360]

Who knows if 10x is true, but I've seen that ratio. If it was 88k, then it being 1M-ish on PC seems a lot more reasonable than 2M. But even 1M might be too much.

If StS2 which has daily peak CCU of 550k-ish is confirmed at 3M sales in the same week, I dont see how Marathon at 88k (and trending down from day one too) can come close to 2M.

Well that tweet above says around 977k on Steam. So the 10 times guesstimate would be close.

EDIT. And Spire is PC only i think right?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Well that tweet above says around 977k on Steam. So the 10 times guesstimate would be close.

EDIT. And Spire is PC only i think right?

Ah yes. Fair point. I thought it was 2M PC only.

StS2 is PC only. Early Access.

 

[ByWatterson]

 

[StereoVsn]

Well that tweet above says around 977k on Steam. So the 10 times guesstimate would be close.

EDIT. And Spire is PC only i think right?

10x of about week's average seems to be a decent rule of thumb. Marathon is probably closer to 600-700K sold on Steam vs 1mil.

Throw in another 300-400K on PS5 based on those reports that Steam -> PS for sales, and you got anywhere from 900K to 1.1 mil (maybe 1.2 mil) in sales.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I think i downloaded the wrong marathon

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

It's got some big competition this weekend so I don't think it will reach the lofty player counts it had last weekend…

Will devs ever learn?

 

[Kacho]

Will devs ever learn?

Two years ago that would have received nuclear heat. Now everyone just ignores the obvious modern audience slop no one asked for.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

It will be interesting what the low level peaks will be for Marathon in next few months. 20-30k would probably be ideal at this point. Which is still a very solid user base to build from. Adding ranked mode next week and probably the Marathon ship the week after should keep interest in the short term. A major update is supposed to come in April. That should be a good test whether people will jump back in or not

 

[Stuart360]

10x of about week's average seems to be a decent rule of thumb. Marathon is probably closer to 600-700K sold on Steam vs 1mil.

Throw in another 300-400K on PS5 based on those reports that Steam -> PS for sales, and you got anywhere from 900K to 1.1 mil (maybe 1.2 mil) in sales.

Yeah i mean we are talking 30mil, or at BEST 50-60mil after a week or so, with a 300mil budget?, it seems its going to be hard just to break even at this point.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

Yeah i mean we are talking 30mil, or at BEST 50-60mil after a week or so, with a 300mil budget?, it seems its going to be hard just to break even at this point.

It's a gaas game dude. It is supposed to be around for at least 10 years. Up front sales are hopefully a small amount of the long term revenue. MTX and Battle Passes is how GAAS games generate their money

 

[Stuart360]

It's a gaas game dude. It is supposed to be around for at least 10 years. Up front sales are hopefully a small amount of the long term revenue. MTX and Battle Passes is how GAAS games generate their money

Yeah but come on lol, its not going to be around for 10 years. I doubt ccu will be more than 2 or 3k after 1 year.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

Yeah but come on lol, its not going to be around for 10 years. I doubt ccu will be more than 2 or 3k after 1 year.

You underestimate how much a lot of people enjoy this game. It may be too hardcore and relatively niche, but many gamers are saying it is their favorite multiplayer game in years, including myself. There will be a dedicated fan base. 92% on Steam for gamers that have played 10+ hours

This is the worst the game will be too. Bungie will continue to update it. They have shown to be great at evolving their gaas games over time

 

[drotahorror]

It's got some big competition this weekend so I don't think it will reach the lofty player counts it had last weekend…

I think the weird thing is that game had 250k wishlists. Like usual, the ones who want this bullshit in their games, don't buy them. Sure, wishlisting is showing support, but they'll never put their money where their mouth is. Social justice warring and protesting isn't a very lucrative job.

 

[Fess]

In a sea of people waking every day and cheering for games they don't like to fail and cackling over bullshit like 'flopathon', why not try to be like this guy?

But imagine what a joyful place this would be!

Sadly it ain't happening, the sharks has sensed blood in the waters…

Pro tip from a fan of No Man's Sky and Starfield, just put negative people on ignore for awhile and enjoy your game. And only talk in the OT where you meet people who're actually PLAYING the game. It's not worth your time to debate with people who haven't even touched the game or had already decided to hate it long before release.

 

[Knight of the Round]

Will devs ever learn?

They're too busy jerking themselves off to the thought of saving the world from fascism.

And that's a high that is nearly impossible to come back from.

 

[SmokSmog]

This is called weekend, look at it again on Monday.

 

[Kerotan]

10x of about week's average seems to be a decent rule of thumb. Marathon is probably closer to 600-700K sold on Steam vs 1mil.

Throw in another 300-400K on PS5 based on those reports that Steam -> PS for sales, and you got anywhere from 900K to 1.1 mil (maybe 1.2 mil) in sales.

Which is an okay start but it'll need to sell 5/6 million to have been worth it. The next few weeks are crucial. It hasn't plummeted but it needs to stabilise soon and build momentum.

 

[calico]

It's probably somewhere between 1m and 2m. Where exactly is not that important compared to whether it stabilizes or continues bleeding out.

Friday night peak was ~25% down on the week before.

 

[ByWatterson]

This is called weekend, look at it again on Monday.

Oh shit really?

 

[SmokSmog]

Oh shit really?

 

[Negotiator101]

You underestimate how much a lot of people enjoy this game. It may be too hardcore and relatively niche, but many gamers are saying it is their favorite multiplayer game in years, including myself. There will be a dedicated fan base. 92% on Steam for gamers that have played 10+ hours

This is the worst the game will be too. Bungie will continue to update it. They have shown to be great at evolving their gaas games over time

It's not a lot of people though is it? Games dying on PC and it's apparently doing even worse on consoles. Not even 2 weeks out and it's averaging on Steam under 40,000 CCU and this is a AAA game from a studio that cost it's parent company 3 billion.

It's not lasting 10yrs and going by how ruthless Sony have been recently I imagine Bungie are looking at big layoffs within 6 months.

 

[RPS37]

I think i downloaded the wrong marathon

I'm having a ten minute discussion with ChatGPT trying to figure out what game this is. No luck.

 

[MMaRsu]

It is supposed to be around for at least 10 years.

Dude this isnt Destiny and never will be

 

[ContrarianAsshole]

Pro tip from a fan of No Man's Sky and Starfield, just put negative people on ignore for awhile and enjoy your game.

Well starfield wasn't very good and wasn't the initial backlash to no man's sky justified? I mean sean was so remorseful about all the false advertising that he took it on his studio to give customers free content regularly for 10 years and counting...

 

[coachmcguirk91]

It's not a lot of people though is it? Games dying on PC and it's apparently doing even worse on consoles. Not even 2 weeks out and it's averaging on Steam under 40,000 CCU and this is a AAA game from a studio that cost it's parent company 3 billion.

It's not lasting 10yrs and going by how ruthless Sony have been recently I imagine Bungie are looking at big layoffs within 6 months.

Nah, I would be shocked if Sony didnt at least give it a full year of major updates before making any big changes. User reviews are very good. There is a core audience that will no life this game. After already spending 300mil+, it would make no sense to abandon ship at this point.

You act like gaas games are incapable of evolving and growing an audience over time. It happens very frequently. With Sony's money, the game isn't going anywhere soon. It will only get better

 

[Negotiator101]

Nah, I would be shocked if Sony didnt at least give it a full year of major updates before making any big changes. User reviews are very good. There is a core audience that will no life this game. After already spending 300mil+, it would make no sense to abandon ship at this point. The game can easily be improved upon in so many ways

Sure they'll stick with it but I'm saying unless there's a big uptick in players it will cost Bungie staff and further down the road it will almost certainly be shuttered if things keep getting worse, nobody wants that and things can possibly be changed and improved so it's not over just yet.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I'm having a ten minute discussion with ChatGPT trying to figure out what game this is. No luck.

Metal Eden, dont blame it since it was a very lowkey release

 

[PeteBull]

Day on day 57246 vs 59357 24h ccu peak, 2nd weekend uptick definitely happened, under 4% gain tho so nothing crazy and whats really important is that it was only additional 2,1k ppl.
Lets see if saturday 24h peak experiences similar growth which would indicate actual influx of new players or it keeps similar number aka simply existing players got more time over the weekend.

 

[IAmAnAgnostic]

Looking at this title I genuinely believe if they had done this we would be all happy campers:
-Listened alpha feedback for UI and battle pass skins
-Released with a campaign that can be played pve SP or co op, or a competitive variant campaign that is solo or trio with PvP in it too. PvP variant grants better cosmetics if you opt into it.
-Added a firefight mode that is pve trios with a free purple kit. Beat the waves and you keep it.
-Had duos at launch

Now you've got a game that has Bungies key strengths and can transition people into a hardcore game for PvP or just come back for the yearly story expansions and additions to the firefight/horde mode.

Thats a Xbox 360 era game package we never get anymore and would've blown people away.

I can only speak for myself, but as an Ex Destiny fan, I would have checked out the game if it was a PvE extraction shooter, or at least had that mode as an option. I actually like the artstyle, but I'm aware it is divisive and I don't think it makes for good skins to sell. (for Microtransactions and Battlepass, like Sony was definitely hoping for)

If it was focused on the Alien worlds and not empty human offices on an Alien worlds and if it had a PvE mode, I'd be playing it now. A campaign would be a nice bonus too of course. Now, it still has plenty of other problems, like the UI and boring objectives, but those are my primary issues.

Of course, at this point remaking the game like this is extremely unlikely, but maybe they'd do it if they could go back in time.

 

[Lightbreak]

Marathon success is killing more than une on the inside

 

[PeteBull]

I can only speak for myself, but as an Ex Destiny fan, I would have checked out the game if it was a PvE extraction shooter, or at least had that mode as an option. I actually like the artstyle, but I'm aware it is divisive and I don't think it makes for good skins to sell. (for Microtransactions and Battlepass, like Sony was definitely hoping for)

If it was focused on the Alien worlds and not empty human offices on an Alien worlds and if it had a PvE mode, I'd be playing it now. A campaign would be a nice bonus too of course. Now, it still has plenty of other problems, like the UI and boring objectives, but those are my primary issues.

Of course, at this point remaking the game like this is extremely unlikely, but maybe they'd do it if they could go back in time.

Them making multiplayer only game, and gaas at that shows everything we needed to know, bro, they dont have the talent and never want to make singleplayer game ever again, hell they dont even want next destiny coz from their pov its still too much dev effort, they go for lowest possible barrier of entry aka multiplayer only gaas, aka chase the fortnite money w/o having talent or dedication like tons of other devs this gen.

I wouldnt even mind it all if it was studios AA 20mil usd budget sideproject that only 30-50ppl worked on but nopes, its their main product with 250m usd development budget(+ who knows how much more on top of that with marketing budget, which was humongous too, likely 400-500m usd total).

And thats what they get to show for it all, total diseaster with at least 10x lower sales/ccu vs what publisher wanted/hoped for so project can break even
Bungie this gen is literal posterboy example of what happened to most western devstudios, industry veterans at that- total anihilation of talent/creativity and only wallstreet mindset of:

They stopped putting soul into their games years ago, for them its just everyday office job with 0 passion, u just slave away mindlessly at ur corpo officejob, collect check, rinse and repeat, and obviously thats strongly reflected in sales results.

 

[BigBeauford]

From day 1 to day 7, the players Arc Raiders gained alone was bigger than Marathon's all time CCU.

 

[Kokoloko85]

Arc Raiders Boss Says Bungie Did a 'Really Good Job' Addressing Feedback After 'Heavily Criticized' Marathon Playtest

Arc Raiders Boss Says Bungie Did a 'Really Good Job' Addressing Feedback After 'Heavily Criticized' Marathon Playtest - IGN

Patrick Söderlund, CEO of Arc Raiders developer Embark Studios, is praising Bungie after the Marathon team managed to effectively address playtest feedback “in a very short period of time.”

www.ign.com

In a sea of people waking every day and cheering for games they don't like to fail and cackling over bullshit like 'flopathon', why not try to be like this guy?

Its the same people always wanting certain studios and publisher to fail
Obsessive behaviour, the worst type of video game fans

They should join this Faction with me