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[AgatonSax]

Seems to have somewhat stabilised at about 50k peak per day, which whilst not great and doesn't justify the amount Sony have sunk on bungie, it is probably somewhat substanable.

Substanable is absolutely the correct word.

 

[KyoZz]

I do not own marathon but I would like to join the defense force. Where do I sign up?

First, train hard:

Next, damage your eyes so you can follow the game without collapsing:

After that you are all set I think!

Thread 'Predicting the Extraction Shooter market - How big will the genre be by late 2026?'

Dec 17, 2024

The premise of this thread is to gauge NeoGAFs ability to predict the market trend of one of the most fascinating genres in all of gaming...the Extraction Shooter. This thread will act as a time capsule, to be unearthed on Tuesday, December 17th, 2026.

WHERE IS THE GENRE TODAY?

Today, there are 3 titles that comprise the bulk of the Extraction Shooter market. Escape from Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Dark and Darker.

Escape from Tarkov - (e) 50k average CCU on game launcher
Hunt: Showdown - 12k average CCU on Steam, (e) 8k average CCU on console
Dark and Darker - 9k average CCU on...

• Men_in_Boxes
• Replies: 43
• Forum: Gaming Discussion

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It was really fascinating how so few of you could see it. I saw it the first time I played Vigor.

Ah yes, Men in Boxes the famous video game expert who thinks skins are more important than solid gameplay in a live-service FPS. I think we'll manage just fine without your shitty opinion.
What's crazzy is you are posting this thread as a "gotcha" moment when it just prove you are wrong. Again.

 

[EN250]

I seriously can't believe some people are trying to tell me "extraction" is the next big thing in gaming. It should be a mode in a real game. I could see this being a mode in like Halo Reach or something.

Hell it was a mode in Division. Division had extraction zones but also had a full story, an open map for exploring, etc. But someone people have convinced themselves that no, this is the entire game.

You literally run around in circles and collect garbage. Have our standards really sunk this low?

Been saying this from the start, this is The Division's Survival repurposed and stretched out to make it look like a full blown "genre" when it really isn't, hell in the Dark Zone, you have free for all PvPvE chaos, you can meet randoms there and either form an alliances or straight up fight against each other, add the hordes of NPCs and named NPC bosses that keep coming at you, all of this while you have to fight a sepsis infection draining your HP, managing your gear and temperature to avoid hypothermia and looting the good stuff

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

I seriously can't believe some people are trying to tell me "extraction" is the next big thing in gaming. It should be a mode in a real game. I could see this being a mode in like Halo Reach or something.

Hell it was a mode in Division. Division had extraction zones but also had a full story, an open map for exploring, etc. But someone people have convinced themselves that no, this is the entire game.

You literally run around in circles and collect garbage. Have our standards really sunk this low?

Don't you know the AAA playbook yet? Take a multilayer "mode" from games the prior gen had alongside full games, release it as its own game and milk the shit out of it while people accept it because it has skins that align with their kinks or ideology all the while developers play lip service to their community.

Get the backing of a major publisher that can make the media bend to their will and you have a recipe for success. This is why it's such a good thing that marathon is failing. It blows this whole thing away. Even Sony couldn't gaslight players.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Game is great. Looks awesome too! The game will have its regulars.

 

[Sgt.Asher]

You literally run around in circles and collect garbage. Have our standards really sunk this low?

It's why I quit Arc, I realized I was bored after looting my hundreth used condom out of a dumpster.

I even gave Marathon a fair shake and it's the same thing. There are a few positives like gunplay and weapon variety. Problem being I would have to experience all that through a single shit gamemode. The player esthetics don't help either, the shells look like ass.

So when people ask where the 300,000 players that left arc went. I would think it's the players that don't like extraction.

 

[Havoc2049]

I still hope halo makes it to ps5 or is all that scrapped? I wanted it at least once... It's good to see the Mc collection still getting play.

I wish bungie would've tried to make the next big arena shooter instead of extraction

I don't think a Halo MCC port to the PS5 ever started. It's a big project and a chore to get everything to work on another platform. I think the PS platform is going to get the Halo CE remake as an intro to the series and then Halo 7.

 

[DrFigs]

It's why I quit Arc, I realized I was bored after looting my hundreth used condom out of a dumpster.

I even gave Marathon a fair shake and it's the same thing. There are a few positives like gunplay and weapon variety. Problem being I would have to experience all that through a single shit gamemode. The player esthetics don't help either, the shells look like ass.

So when people ask where the 300,000 players that left arc went. I would think it's the players that don't like extraction.

That is definitely it. I also bought Arc because it was well received, but it is just not for me. I didn't even bother getting Marathon for that reason.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Is Halo MCC even still done on xbox? lol

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

Is Halo MCC even still done on xbox? lol

Yup. It's amazing. I wish it'd get a PS5 port but 343 isn't gonna want to port that engine to PS5.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

There is no such thing as "consumer friendly" GAAS. It is an inherently hostile model designed to take away control from the player.

The only way a GAAS can ever be "consumer friendly" is if it can be played entirely offline and with private servers, though its argueable whether its even GAAS at that point. Either way, not Marathon's case.

And there is no better demonstration of that fact than you and others here, complaining about the ccu watching and people cheering for this game's demise. Because you all deep down understand if this game doesn't get enough players, it'll get shutdown. And if that happens - due to it being gaas - you will never be able to play it again.

To put this into fewer words, they have a very bad case of the sunken cost fallacy.

Seeing the rabid defensiveness of this game and off-topic, the copium on whether Project Helix is a "console" or not, I think we have discovered a specific subset of the fallacy.

I call it the shill-ken cost fallacy.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Ah yes, Men in Boxes

The poll is pretty telling. A lot of people don't really analyze the industry and recognize its evolution. The blind spot many of y'all had for Extraction was hilarious.

 

[Rocco Schiavone]

Marathon will survive. All Sony has to do is put it on ps+ and it will gain lots of new players.

 

[Guilty_AI]

The poll is pretty telling. A lot of people don't really analyze the industry and recognize its evolution. The blind spot many of y'all had for Extraction was hilarious.

You talk as if extraction shooters are now this big thing that is everywhere and not something which the newest, hottest game in the genre has less average players than a 3 year old turn based rpg.

 

[Branded]

There is no such thing as "consumer friendly" GAAS. It is an inherently hostile model designed to take away control from the player.

The only way a GAAS can ever be "consumer friendly" is if it can be played entirely offline and with private servers, though its argueable whether its even GAAS at that point. Either way, not Marathon's case.

And there is no better demonstration of that fact than you and others here, complaining about the ccu watching and people cheering for this game's demise. Because you all deep down understand if this game doesn't get enough players, it'll get shutdown. And if that happens - due to it being gaas - you will never be able to play it again.

My nibba you are in the minority and out of touch. Take a look at the top 25 played games on Steam.

GaaS is here to stay, has been for a while, whether you like it or not.

Sure Marathon might go under at some point but in return you will get 3 others who will all take its place, all with varying success.

Good luck with your crusade though. All the best.

 

[KyoZz]

To put this into fewer words, they have a very bad case of the sunken cost fallacy.

Seeing the rabid defensiveness of this game and off-topic, the copium on whether Project Helix is a "console" or not, I think we have discovered a specific subset of the fallacy.

I call it the shill-ken cost fallacy.

It's crazy how terrible this generation is. Thank God there is still some third party games that are still good (even very, very good) but anything first party has been a complete shitshow this gen.

The poll is pretty telling. A lot of people don't really analyze the industry and recognize its evolution. The blind spot many of y'all had for Extraction was hilarious.

I was typing and then saw Guilty_AI post. Spot on, I don't know how you can look at the poll and think "HAHA THEY WERE SO WRONG" when Marathon is, indeed, crashing in real time with less than 90K peak.
Take the L and play the game while you can.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

It doesnt have to be one or the other single player and GAAS can coexist. No need to narrow it to black or white.

 

[Branded]

It doesnt have to be one or the other single player and GAAS can coexist. No need to narrow it to black or white.

Stop making sense please. All live service must go and the industry must pivot entirely into "buy once get all future content for free". It's the only sustainable business model. Duh.

Get him boys!

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

I'm at the point where I want Fortnite to release an extraction mode called Decathlon and just pour salt in the wound.

 

[Guilty_AI]

My nibba you are in the minority and out of touch. Take a look at the top 25 played games on Steam.

GaaS is here to stay, has been for a while, whether you like it or not.

Sure Marathon might go under at some point but in return you will get 3 others who will all take its place with varying success.

Good luck with your crusade though. All the best.

I like how you completely side-stepped the actual issue in the discussion and went towards a completely different subject.

Guess that means i'm right and you have no arguments against it.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

Stop making sense please. All live service must go and the industry must pivot entirely into "buy once get all future content for free". It's the only sustainable business model. Duh.

Get him boys!

My stance on GAAS is let me pay for the game at full cost and not make me feel like a second class citizen if I'm not constantly pumping $100s a year into it for the goods.

 

[DrFigs]

My nibba you are in the minority and out of touch. Take a look at the top 25 played games on Steam.

GaaS is here to stay, has been for a while, whether you like it or not.

Sure Marathon might go under at some point but in return you will get 3 others who will all take its place with varying success.

Good luck with your crusade though. All the best.

I agree that it is here to stay, but he is right that it is sad that these are considered full games. I didn't get it w/ battle royale either. a whole game made from call of duty's free for all mode? that used to be just one game mode among many. or for that matter a mod for a game.

 

[Branded]

I seriously can't believe some people are trying to tell me "extraction" is the next big thing in gaming. It should be a mode in a real game. I could see this being a mode in like Halo Reach or something.

Hell it was a mode in Division. Division had extraction zones but also had a full story, an open map for exploring, etc. But someone people have convinced themselves that no, this is the entire game.

You literally run around in circles and collect garbage. Have our standards really sunk this low?

So you, along with others, admit it is a niche genre yet act like the majority of the industry is trend chasing in that direction? Make it make sense.

We literally have a handful of (somewhat) successful Extraction shooters, arguably not even reaching the full potential of the genre but the boys over at GAF feel that the entire genre must go because it's not catered to them to the nth degree... Marathon ruffling some feathers I see.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

I like how you completely side-stepped the actual issue in the discussion and went towards a completely different subject.

Guess that means i'm right and you have no arguments against it.

That's the same for any PVP game nowadays. If there is no online component its not going to be updated. Nothing dies without there being something better in the pipeline to move to.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

I agree that it is here to stay, but he is right that it is sad that these are considered full games. I didn't get it w/ battle royale either. a whole game made from call of duty's free for all mode? that used to be just one game mode among many. or for that matter a mod for a game.

It's all about minimizing dev time to maximize how much money you can extract from the base. Why return to the traditional model where you release a $60 single player / MP game every three years when you can drop one game and milk people four times a year for $60 in battle passes and $100 in skins?

It's pure cooperate efficiency to extract as much value as possible. The only reason why people fall for it is because developers clearly use proven psychological methods that activate the same addiction in gamblers.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

It's all about minimizing dev time to maximize how much money you can extract from the base. Why return to the traditional model where you release a $60 single player / MP game every three years when you can drop one game and milk people four times a year for $60 in battle passes and $100 in skins?

It's pure cooperate efficiency to extract as much value as possible. The only reason why people fall for it is because developers clearly use proven psychological methods that activate the same addiction in gamblers.

If you are playing 100s of hours a year who gives a shit about $160 a year. That's a pretty good value no?

 

[Branded]

I like how you completely side-stepped the actual issue in the discussion and went towards a completely different subject.

Guess that means i'm right and you have no arguments against it.

I literally pulled out examples of live service games that serve their communities perfectly fine, showing that you can, in fact, run a consumer friendly GaaS title to which you responded "no it is not true because by definition it is bad". Is there some sort of definition floating about of GaaS titles that I am unaware that is applicable to every game that employs this business model???

And yes we all know that in the 21st century games (or half of their features) can be taken away in an instant This is nothing new and not tied to the GaaS model whatsoever. We're unable to play multiplayer portions of thousands of beloved games these days. It happens.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

If you are playing 100s of hours a year who gives a shit about $160 a year. That's a pretty good value no?

If you consider $100 in cosmetic skins in one game per year a good value, then you're already too far gone for me to even bother debating with.

 

[Havoc2049]

Is it not obvious why?

Marathon should have had a single player/co-op campaign. I think the premise, story, aesthetic would have lended well to a story campaign mode. Also just some kind of arena style pvp too.

At this point, most of the player base of MCC is playing the multiplayer. Halo MCC was out of the Top 50 and now it's back at #32. The Exchange in MCC just got an update and that got a little press, so it probably brought back some older players. It has seen a slight bump on Steam as well.

A new single player Marathon campaign would have been cool or at least a mini-campaign, like when they introduced new DLC in Destiny and Destiny 2.

 

[Branded]

If you consider $100 in cosmetic skins in one game per year a good value, then you're already too far gone for me to even bother debating with.

LOL so an adult spending money on additional content that he sees value in, whether that be cosmetics or new levels, maps, weapons, etc (on a game he has spent hundreds of hours on even), means that he is too far gone?

Very sound and reasonable take!

 

[Guardian Monkey]

If you consider $100 in cosmetic skins in one game per year a good value, then you're already too far gone for me to even bother debating with.

selective reading or missing the point? if you spend 100s of hours playing a game per year. $160 on what you spend on that makes you happy is still a good value in my book. Most of us spend far more on single player games that dont get nearly as much play time to cost. Again, if the individual is happy what they are playing who gives a shit.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

You talk as if extraction shooters are now this big thing that is everywhere and not something which the newest, hottest game in the genre has less average players than a 3 year old turn based rpg.

Look at the thread again and the poll results.

 

[Branded]

Can the fanboys stick to the OT? We don't go there, let us have this thread to have fun and stop posting your mental breakdown with passive aggressive sentences "muh Reddit, me so smart hurhurhur".

Coming here will just hurt your feelings... I mean it's at 36K a Sunday only one week after it's release

I thought I was surrounded by alphas* and it was in fact the OT people being "little bitches" that get no pussy (or some manchild shit like that).

Surely you can engage in actual debate. I doubt me being a bit snarky will would trigger you or others, surely?

*alphas that scrutinize player numbers for a game they never had interest in, posting graphs, checking in daily, telling others what to do with their money, dismissing a genre because it is not for them, using bad faith arguments, getting personal when met with opposition, etc

 

[Guilty_AI]

I literally pulled out examples of live service games that serve their communities perfectly fine, showing that you can, in fact, run a consumer friendly GaaS title to which you responded "no it is not true because by definition it is bad". Is there some sort of definition floating about of GaaS titles that I am unaware that is applicable to every game that employs this business model???

Yes, selling services as if they were goods is inherently a bad, anti-consumer practice. Guess you could open an exception to games that use subscription models, though even the few of those like WoW still employ that practice on the side.

And yes we all know that in the 21st century games (or half of their features) can be taken away in an instant This is nothing new and not tied to the GaaS model whatsoever. We're unable to play multiplayer portions of thousands of beloved games these days. It happens.

Not being new doesn't make it any more aceptable.

 

[FMN]

The paypigs are going to have to spend a lot more than $100 in skins to save Bungie.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Gonna need more than just 2 people to make the This Is Fine™ choreography less obvious.

 

[Timberwolf25]

Did the shills get tired of the OT?

 

[Branded]

Yes, selling services as if they were goods is inherently a bad, anti-consumer practice.

You mean selling goods as if they were services surely?

But still, why would one way or the other be bad in the example of videogames? The industry employs a variety of business models, catered to the project at hand. So why would Call of Duty having a free battle royale mode, that is built as a live service title, be bad by definition and anti-consumer? I don't have to buy the 20 dollar skin that they sell in order to play the game just like anyone else.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Gonna need more than just 2 people to make the This Is Fine™ choreography less obvious.

Opposed to the fantastic 12 circle jerk on going since the thread opened?

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Did the shills get tired of the OT?

Its a CCU thread. It's not the anti- GAAS / bungie thread.

 

[Branded]

Did the shills get tired of the OT?

Oh cmon' you love a bit of name calling and getting likes. At least the thread is somewhat spicy again. Just close your eyes if it gets too much.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Opposed to the fantastic 12 circle jerk on going since the thread opened?

Nice self report.

 

[KyoZz]

I thought I was surrounded by alphas*

Did I say that? No. So who said that and where?

and it was in fact the OT people being "little bitches"

Again, who said that and where?

that get no pussy (or some manchild shit like that).

More nonsense. You're taking it too personally.

Surely you can engage in actual debate. I doubt me being a bit snarky will would trigger you or others, surely?

Say that to Men_in_Boxes , coachmcguirk91 and other, it all end the same way: they sulk and stop responding or just simply ignore the point they can't counter.

*alphas that scrutinize player numbers for a game they never had interest in, posting graphs, checking in daily, telling others what to do with their money, dismissing a genre because it is not for them, using bad faith arguments, getting personal when met with opposition, etc

You are bitter.

Oh cmon' you love a bit of name calling and getting likes. At least the thread is somewhat spicy again. Just close your eyes if it gets too much.

Yeah... very bitter.

 

[diffusionx]

So you, along with others, admit it is a niche genre yet act like the majority of the industry is trend chasing in that direction? Make it make sense.

We literally have a handful of (somewhat) successful Extraction shooters, arguably not even reaching the full potential of the genre but the boys over at GAF feel that the entire genre must go because it's not catered to them to the nth degree... Marathon ruffling some feathers I see.

holy cope

Nobody said extraction should go away. I said that it should be a mode in a more full featured game. the idea that Bungie spent $250 million to build four maps where you run around collecting literal, actual garbage is insane to me. There should be CFT and TDM in this game at least. There should be an actual campaign. We used to get games with all these elements in one, now they say "nah we will just have the garbage man mode and that's enough."

Imagine if Mass Effect 3 was just the multiplayer section. And they said "nah we will tell you the story in between your runs on the maps." That's where we are at now. Of course ME3 was also a full large RPG with this multiplayer attached and a lot of people really liked it.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Nice self report.

60% of the thread is made of the same anti-marathon actors made of 12 people, keep up.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

60% of the thread is made of the same anti-marathon actors made of 12 people, keep up.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/tu-quoque

 

[Timberwolf25]

Its a CCU thread. It's not the anti- GAAS / bungie thread.

Yea, I see a lot of CCU thread discussion from you guys.
More like complaining about people actually posting the CCU numbers

 

[Guilty_AI]

You mean selling goods as if they were services surely?

Marathon is a service, not a good. Yet it is packaged and presented as good that you can purchase.

So why would Call of Duty having a free battle royale mode that they use as a live service is bad anti-consumer? I don't have to buy the 20 dollar skin that they sell in order to play the game just like anyone else.

The very fact they sell that skin is already bad, for again they are selling a service as if it were a good.

 

[Branded]

Did I say that? No. So who said that and where?


Again, who said that and where?

See below for an example. Seeing as no one else called him out (probably in fear of retaliation or being ousted from the group ) I assume the rest of you CCU Census-Takers are in agreement with this sort of rhetoric?

And call be bitter all you want but that does not change the behavior of some of you gents in this thread lol.

 

[Guardian Monkey]