You can if 2 are in the MNC. It's been stated 5 times in the last week.
It's in a Doooooooooooommmmmmmmmeeeeee
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College Football Week 13: Rivalry Week! (fucla!)
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You can if 2 are in the MNC. It's been stated 5 times in the last week.
I thought you could as long as two were in the MNC?
perfectchaos007
Member
Oh thats right. Well damn isn't the SEC trying to change that rule? If Georgia wins, the BCS chaos won't have any ramifications for the future because the BCS will "fix" the problem by allowing more than 2 teams from the same conference to go BCS bowling. Each major conference would get 1 team to go bowling while the SEC gets 3-4
Georgia winning is the only shot we have at an actual MNC game. LSU will drop further than one spot, the voters will be glad to have the excuse to drop them. Late loss>early loss. We'll wind up with a Bama blowout over whatever sacrificial lamb makes it in--presumably Okie St--but that'll be a thousand times better than the garbage we're expected to eat as of now.
sonycowboy
Member
My projections... Again, my computer rankings are the only variable... And computer rankings do allow for decimals, where I'm just rounding them off. Stanford ~might well pass Va Tech, but if VA Tech wins their conf championship, I'd expect them to jump Stanford again... Also, I'm expecting a bit of a jump for Houston to 10 in the computers and a drop of 1 by Boise, Boise could easily stay ahead of Houston if that doesn't happen...
Code:
[b] Coach Pts Coach BCS HRS Pts Hrs BCS Comp Avg Comp BCS Total BCS[/b]
LSU 1475 1.0000 2875 1.0000 1 1 1.0000
Alabama 1411 0.9566 2756 0.9586 2 0.96 0.9584
Ok State 1245 0.8441 2414 0.8397 3 0.92 0.8679
Va Tech 1291 0.8753 2438 0.8480 7 0.76 0.8278
Stanford 1289 0.8739 2512 0.8737 8 0.72 0.8225
Arkansas 937 0.6353 1971 0.6856 4 0.88 0.7336
Houston 1096 0.7431 2147 0.7468 10 0.64 0.7099
Boise State 1033 0.7003 2092 0.7277 9 0.68 0.7027
Oklahoma 882 0.5980 1768 0.6150 6 0.8 0.6710
Oregon 1041 0.7058 2107 0.7329 12 0.56 0.6662
Kansas State 682 0.4624 1348 0.4689 5 0.84 0.5904
South Carolina 833 0.5647 1554 0.5405 11 0.6 0.5684
Michigan State 941 0.6380 1704 0.5927 15 0.44 0.5569
Georgia 816 0.5532 1613 0.5610 13 0.52 0.5448
Michigan 658 0.4461 1256 0.4369 14 0.48 0.4543
Wisconsin 852 0.5776 1567 0.5450 20 0.24 0.4542Well the Sugar Bowl invitation has to be fulfilled, so I guess a lot of it depends on if Georgia wins is it somehow the perception that Georgia is good and the SEC west was overrated, or that it was a fluke and Georgia still sucks and hasn't played anyone.
If Georgia wins in a squeaker, I could see Bama and LSU maybe both getting in. However if the unthinkable happens and UGA won big, that would have huge repercussions for Bama as well.
Even if Georgia wins, it won't matter. No way any pollster drops LSU below any other one-loss team except maybe Bama.
bigtroyjon
Member
You can't use the exact computer ranking like that and get any kind of decent projection. The average ranking gets determined by the percent, not the other way around.
It'll be funny seeing all the same SEC wonks who were so opposed to seeing Michigan and Ohio State play again after meeting when undefeated in 2006 now lobby for Alambama/LSU.
Puddles, you really need to stay the fuck out of college football threads.
I was opposed to it then, and I'm opposed to it now. Lot of people are, but the computers in the polls may make it inevitable.
sonycowboy
Member
Understood, actually the problem is that it's not to the decimal position and that two teams could only be separated by a small decimal amount, but the computer average difference would be exaggerated to the next integer. Since they throw out the high and the low, the difference turns out to be generally ~ .02 at the top of the rankings down to ~.06 as the computers diverge a bit more.
But in the end, it generally won't be off by more than one position overall. And I'm not even trying to predict what each of the 6 computers will say...
All of that assuming my relative computer ranking is close at all. Will Arkansas stay #4 in the computers? Could K-State move ahead of them? Where does Houston rank? In general, there's not NEARLY as much computer movement in the final week as it's based on all 12 games, so the further you go along, the less the next game can actually affect the rankings.
Are you kidding? Its already started! Only the mighty SEC could ever deserve to have two teams in the title game!
Let's project the BCS bowls!
MNC: LSU vs Alabama (uuuuuugh)
Rose: Oregon vs Mich St
Sugar: Stanford vs K St
Fiesta: Okie St vs Boise
Orange: Va Tech vs Lolsville
Autobids account for the MNC and Rose, plus Okie St and Va Tech. That leaves four spots for at-larges, two in the Sugar, and one each in the Fiesta and Orange. Assuming that Okie St wins Bedlam, and that Michigan doesn't become BCS-eligible after the CCGs, that leaves only four teams eligible for those at-large spots: Stanford, K St, Boise, and Houston.
Sugar gets first pick, and with not much to choose between, I reckon they go Stanford. Fiesta gets next, and won't want K St, so I figure they go Boise. Sugar after that, likely goes with the BCS team over Houston. And finally the Orange is stuck with Houston.
I dunno, this is a very shaky projection, as none of the four at-larges are compelling, so any of them might get picked for any bowl (the only exception being K St in the Fiesta).
On the other hand, if Michigan manages to sneak into the top 14 in the final week, this all changes.
Edit: derp, forgot CUSA 2.0. They get an autobid, so Houston or Boise gets bumped out, depending on who's lower-ranked. Right now, that looks like Houston.
MNC: LSU vs Alabama (uuuuuugh)
Rose: Oregon vs Mich St
Sugar: Stanford vs K St
Fiesta: Okie St vs Boise
Orange: Va Tech vs Lolsville
Autobids account for the MNC and Rose, plus Okie St and Va Tech. That leaves four spots for at-larges, two in the Sugar, and one each in the Fiesta and Orange. Assuming that Okie St wins Bedlam, and that Michigan doesn't become BCS-eligible after the CCGs, that leaves only four teams eligible for those at-large spots: Stanford, K St, Boise, and Houston.
Sugar gets first pick, and with not much to choose between, I reckon they go Stanford. Fiesta gets next, and won't want K St, so I figure they go Boise. Sugar after that, likely goes with the BCS team over Houston. And finally the Orange is stuck with Houston.
I dunno, this is a very shaky projection, as none of the four at-larges are compelling, so any of them might get picked for any bowl (the only exception being K St in the Fiesta).
On the other hand, if Michigan manages to sneak into the top 14 in the final week, this all changes.
Edit: derp, forgot CUSA 2.0. They get an autobid, so Houston or Boise gets bumped out, depending on who's lower-ranked. Right now, that looks like Houston.
Chumly, I'm glad to see that you've finally come around! Welcome to the side of righteousness and truth! It's about time!
zyxwvu4321
Member
No Big East team there. Well played.
Yeah. Cyan, there's no way the Orange Bowl is anything but ACC vs Big East.
lols. I honestly forgot about them. Updated!
Agreed, that one's locked in.
sonycowboy
Member
If you assume that Georgia loses to LSU and Oklahoma loses against OK State, then Michigan is going to be in the top 14...
If Georgia wins, it screws things up anyway as that's one less at large bid. Of course, the presumption is that Michigan is automatically the #1 at large choice if they're eligible.
And Sugar will pick Michigan... So, IF Fiesta get's to choose between the Big East champion, Stanford, K State, and Boise, I don't see them trying to rematch OK State with K-State, not a shot at choosing the Big East champ, Boise's not very appealing, so that leaves Stanford which can travel to AZ and has Luck for the TV ratings.
Then Gondo and I can finally have who's #3 decided on the field... And that's just a nightmare matchup for Stanford... Great receivers kill us.
Puddles, you really need to stay the fuck out of college football threads.Why 31 points? Why not 32 or 33 points? Why not 6 * pi points?
Because 31 would allow for a 17-14 game. That's about the lowest scoring game anyone would want to see a rematch of, IMO.
For a lawyer, you're kind of a dumbass.
sonycowboy
Member
You have to be a conf champion, so unless TCU loses to UNLV (right), Boise doesn't get an automatic bid, they would have to go the at-large route.
They also lost to Baylor (OK, not sooo bad) and 5-7 Texas Tech. WTF!
sonycowboy
Member
I'm holding a candlelight vigil that Kurt Roper will be fired, caught with hookers and blow, talking to an agent (lulz) caught firing a gun on campus or gets Meyer-itis and as to leave the game. Cutcliffe can go with him, hes a glorified carnival barker and we're all tired of the snake oil.
bigtroyjon
Member
Difference between 6 and 7 was .09 last week. Rankings don't tell us much when the teams are bunched up this much at the end of the year.
Sirpopopop
Member
Dennis Erickson has a better record than Greg Schiano.
Yet Greg Schiano still has a job.
*Sigh*
The big sport boosters at Rutgers are so fucking easy to please.
Yet Greg Schiano still has a job.
*Sigh*
The big sport boosters at Rutgers are so fucking easy to please.
Sirpopopop
Member
I'd love to see Houston beat you guys.
Hey man, all I did was propose an idea that would prevent anything like an LSU/Bama rematch from happening in the future while also allowing for good rematches, and what did I get? I got told not to post in the thread anymore. But that's fine, I didn't take offense at that, just like I assume mre didn't take offense at my comment. We're all just sports fans, right?
It's nice to want/love things.
Sirpopopop
Member
I bet LOLSville beats the ACC rep.
For some reason, I believe Lolsville exists to torment you all.
It's going to be WVU in 2005 all over again.
For some reason, I believe Lolsville exists to torment you all.
It's going to be WVU in 2005 all over again.
sonycowboy
Member
In that case, there's only one At-Large spot...
1) MNC - LSU vs Alabama
2) Rose - Oregon vs Wisc/Michigan State
3) Fiesta - Oklahoma/OK State vs <first choice>
4) Sugar - Georgia vs <second choice>
5) Orange - Va Tech/Clemson vs Big East <last choice>
Houston must be selected, then one of the following could be chosen...
Stanford, Ok State (if they lose), Boise, K-State, Michigan (projected at-large).
Sugar would take Michigan in a heartbeat and the other guys have to go elsewhere.
For a _____________ I'd have to say the same for you, my socialist friend. That's arbitrary as fuck, not to mention that your scenario punishes teams for having great defenses, while rewarding teams just for putting points up on the board. The BCS is about matching up the two best teams in America, not about putting on the highest scoring spectacle. In your scenario two teams who played a 67-55 game would be eligible for a rematch, which is bullshit.
No, you'd be fucked.
In this scenario, assuming no other upsets next week, the three non-Rose Bowls have to choose between:
Big East Champion (Probably West Virginia)
Non-AQ Auto-Bid (Houston)
At-Large Team in top 14 (Boise State, Michigan, Stanford, KSU most likely)
Fiesta Bowl picks first and almost definitely selects Michigan or Stanford.
Sugar Bowl picks second and selects between Houston and Big East champion.
Not really... it might be fucked up and illogical, but it's hardly arbitrary. Setting up a 31 point line is absolutely arbitrary.
But, regardless, if it works out where it's Alabama-LSU, I'll fiddle while the world burns and enjoy my team's chance to win another mythical national championship.
I would be okay with playing Michigan. Good history. Stanford would be fun and I'd enjoy seeing that fabled west coast offense against our defense and offense.
There is no requirement that the automatic berths are selected before the at-large berths, only that the automatic ones must be chosen.
If it comes down to At-Large vs. Non-AQ vs. Big East, expect At-Large to be picked first leaving Sugar with Houston and BE champ to decide over.
sonycowboy
Member
I screwed up on my typing... Fiesta would take Michigan in a heartbeat... Sugar has to take Houston or BigEast Champ.
Yep. I wasn't specifying order in that, although I did accidentally misstate/mistype Sugar instead of Fiesta. The presumption has been that Sugar would choose first to replace the SEC team, but if Georgia wins that's no longer true.
Dreams-Visions
Member
That'd be fun, I agree. Have we played your team before, ever?
I think so, but not for a long time. Trying to find it on my phone but coming up short.
bigtroyjon
Member
All this talk and they didn't even mention the real reason why Big 10 is thought poorly of in the computers. Margin of Victory gets included and they'd be much higher.
They'd only get one choice for the SEC champ. Then it goes to the first Bowl in the selection order.
Yep, Sugar would be Georgia-Houston in that scenario.
No, they only get one. They get the replace LSU pick, and then the next pick is the Fiesta's.
sonycowboy
Member
No, fiesta has first choice. Sugar would only get first choice to replace losing the SEC team to the MNC.
Also, Michigan is sitting @16th in the latest rankings
UGA and Meeechigan are 1-1 against each other and you haven't played since 1965 (UGA win): http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Georgia.htm
sonycowboy
Member
Stanford to #4 by a huge margin and close to ok state
Our computer rankings must have gone wayyyy up
Our computer rankings must have gone wayyyy up
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