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Sony in big trouble with PS Vita, Portable market in perm decline, rotting - Forbes
- Thread starter marc^o^
- Start date
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
That Xperia Play was a real rip roaring success wasn't it?
The Xperia Play was like 500 or 600 off-contract at launch. Of course it's not going to appeal the traditional handheld gaming market at that price point.
Version 3.0
Member
Of course they are. But "at some capacity", portables are competing with home consoles and PCs as well, and in a wider market, with everything. I sometimes pass on games because I spent the money on my girlfriend. Does that mean girlfriends and gaming are mutually exclusive (don't answer that, GAF).
The idea here that's caught on with every trend gawker across the world is that phones and handhelds cannot possibly co-exist. That's absurd. Not only is it not true, it's exceptionally easy to disprove.
I wouldn't worry about Vita over here, after all it does have a CoD title under development.
Version 3.0
Member
That's very easy to say once they've done so, isn't it? What did you think about their chances a few months ago? These analysts were writing the exact same stories about the 3DS at that time.
TheChewyWaffles
Member
Agreed. Thankfully, consumers are in agreement. Android and iPhone revenues are in a freefall as we speak:
Made me lol I admit
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
It is an awesome game.
IMO, games like Jetpack Joyride should be $5 or so on Nintendo/Sony handhelds. That is acceptable. Lower the price of pick me ups non 1st party games to $5 or so but keep the big hitters at $35-40. Mario Kart 7 is definitely worth it to me at $40. I suspect SML7 will be too. But there isn't one single 3DS-ware game that is worth more than $5 IMO.
Also, the fact that Real Racing 2 HD on the iPad is like .99c which actually looks really good makes it near impossible to justify spending $50 on a GT portable.
Vdragoon
Member
Except for the tiny? fact that you and the article have no clue whatsoever of what you are talking about. Where is the proof? What is happening is Apple has opened up a new demographic just like the one between consoles and portables. There is now a 3rd entry which includes iOS and Android gaming. They will never eliminate Nintendo as long as people want to play Mario and Mario Kart.
Check the date of the original iPhone launch, the check the start of the DS handheld gen, then take their current software and hardware numbers for this handheld gen and compare it to the last handheld gen.
If you want to make a statement that its declining heavily, and that its due to phones, and not the normal generational shift gaming ALWAYS goes through, then show me, assuming you can stomach it. But thats not something your going to want to do, because handheld gaming grew in comparison to last gen. So stick to cherry picking the transitional period of consoles, where the past 25 fucking years have shown us ALWAYS leads to declines as a system ages, and is eventually replaced by a successor, and ignoring the 3DS's current success (which is ahead of even the NDS's start) to spearhead your POV. Shit works better that way.
Apples to apples comparisons are avoided by people championing this horseshit for a reason.
so you are easily scared me FUD?
No they are not. And don't start the Hirai misquote here.
Several Sony members said they're breaking even.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
SONY is seriously fucked. It should have been apparent that after the PSP tanked after the smartphone rage started to take over (iPhone 3GS cementing Apples dominance and the rise of Android) that they should have bowed out of the race.
Face it the PSP had two things going for it:
1. (Then) Current Generation Graphics
2. Multi-Media Beast
However since then these two things are moot.. The PSPs graphics were outdated in the console space less than a year after its release. As for the multi-media part well there was something called THE iPHONE. Nobody wants to use the internet with a nub! Its not surprising to me why in 2008ish the system went to irrelevancy then soon non-existence. People just preferred to play their games on a console and to use the internet and listen to music on a phone. Its that simple.
Now the Vita addressed some of these issues. It has a touch screen and 3G, but at the end of the day it isn't a true multimedia machine. Its designed to be a video game system. It isn't small, it isn't compact, and it isn't socially acceptable. Consoles are starting to become more acceptable amongst the masses sure, but handhelds are still seen as something exclusively for kids. Joe Sixpack won't be caught dead playing God of War on a Vita, but he wouldn't mind being seen playing Angry Birds with DROID 2. As for kids and casuals, forget it. The system is not only too complicated for them to use, but too expensive. I mean the 3DS did SO WELL at $250 right? Finally the system is too big. You can't carry it in your pocket, you need either a purse, suitcase, or backpack. Women don't play many SONY games and the system is too masculine for them. Businessmen would look unprofessional if a fellow coworker, or even worse a boss, saw a fellow employee gaming during their lunch break. Backpacks would work but thats essentially...students?
So who does that leave? Hardcore SONY fans and college kids. There's no hope for this system. Personally if I was SONY I'd just scrap it or leave it as Japan exclusive while leaving the rest of the money to invest in the PlayStation 4, but that's just me.
Face it the PSP had two things going for it:
1. (Then) Current Generation Graphics
2. Multi-Media Beast
However since then these two things are moot.. The PSPs graphics were outdated in the console space less than a year after its release. As for the multi-media part well there was something called THE iPHONE. Nobody wants to use the internet with a nub! Its not surprising to me why in 2008ish the system went to irrelevancy then soon non-existence. People just preferred to play their games on a console and to use the internet and listen to music on a phone. Its that simple.
Now the Vita addressed some of these issues. It has a touch screen and 3G, but at the end of the day it isn't a true multimedia machine. Its designed to be a video game system. It isn't small, it isn't compact, and it isn't socially acceptable. Consoles are starting to become more acceptable amongst the masses sure, but handhelds are still seen as something exclusively for kids. Joe Sixpack won't be caught dead playing God of War on a Vita, but he wouldn't mind being seen playing Angry Birds with DROID 2. As for kids and casuals, forget it. The system is not only too complicated for them to use, but too expensive. I mean the 3DS did SO WELL at $250 right? Finally the system is too big. You can't carry it in your pocket, you need either a purse, suitcase, or backpack. Women don't play many SONY games and the system is too masculine for them. Businessmen would look unprofessional if a fellow coworker, or even worse a boss, saw a fellow employee gaming during their lunch break. Backpacks would work but thats essentially...students?
So who does that leave? Hardcore SONY fans and college kids. There's no hope for this system. Personally if I was SONY I'd just scrap it or leave it as Japan exclusive while leaving the rest of the money to invest in the PlayStation 4, but that's just me.
Paracelsus
Member
I think there won't be any kind of literal pricecut in the first year. They'll start bundling a small-sized (2GB or something) memory stick for free and go fullspeed with bundles, Uncharted from being a 49$ game will become a pack-in, many other first party titles as well. They can sort of survive the first year if they don't have the same third party support PS3 did receive from 2006 to 2009 (borderline laughable) but they can't expect people to pay more than they "have to".
Combichristoffersen
Combovers don't work when there is no hair
Will be waiting for clearance sales once it dies sometime around April next year.
The article makes no sense. Comparing it to the Kindle? Really?
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Is this really FUD? It's tanking in Japan, which is a huge region, and there's like no hype for it here. I'm not a sales-age guy but they're important for obvious reasons.
brotkasten
Member
The Xperia Play couldn't appeal to anyone, even if someone actually tried to market that thing. The hardware was utterly crap for the price and the PS Suite games aren't there yet (according to Wikipedia). That thing is a bastard child no one cares about. It's not even a real Playstation product.
Imperial Hot
Banned
$169.99 with $9.99 games. I'd buy that.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I have to agree. Nintendo has what Sony doesn't: Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon. If it weren't for Nintendo's 1st party exclusives, they wouldn't be able to stay afloat IMO in this current market. Sony doesn't have any killer 1st party title that will sell a game some 20 million times. It just doesn't.
The Vita cannot compete with the ease of the iPhone/Touch. It just can't. I carry my iPhone EVERYWHERE. I don't mind spending $300 on a new one every two years but no way will I spend $250 on a new Vita every two years. I never EVER use the web browser on the 3DS because it is a PITA, just as Vita most likely is. Throw in the app store, Netflix, HBO app, etc., and I just don't see how the Vita can compete.
bigtroyjon
Member
Must work in PR, nice job of delfection, you are the one that said "all the evidence" without providing any. I would think that a 4 year transitional period in a gen that started 7 years ago would be pretty damn good evidence that things are declining, but will wait for "all the evidence" you promised.
Home console software shipments never declined due to a generational transition last gen and hardware shipments stayed mostly flat and niether came close to the 50% drop we've seen in handhelds. Nothing normal about what's happened with handhelds.
Not onky 3ds does worse, but also smartphones if used to play i doubt they last more that 4 h. The single account (at once, you can change it) is way better than 3ds offers. Plus it will have expensive console-like games, and psn ones, like superstardust, priced as ios or android games.Memory cards, yeah not cheap, but only need to buy once.
bigtroyjon
Member
That was 6 months ago when both the Euro and Dollar were worth well more than they are now. Things have changed.
edit-Just to put some numbers on it, on June 6th the Euro was worth over 116 yen and it's currently under 101 on a downward trend. I doubt they had a 15% profit margin built in for launch.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
I find the bolded odd but agree with pretty much everything else.
Yes SONY doesn't have a single exclusive to compete with Nintendo. Their biggest franchise, Gran Turismo, tanked horrendously on the PSP. And that was suppose to save the system. And yes the Vita is virtually appless. Netflix? Probably added sometime down the road but there like Capcom when it comes to that. Weren't they trying to give the DS Netflix? Add in the thousands of specific apps to iOS and Android devices and there's no way SONY can compete.
Also yes if it wasn't for Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, and Pokemon Nintendo would be dead. Even when they dropped the price it only notably helped. But then comes Mario and WHAMO!!!
zerodayPopbot
Member
I really don't think people care. And if they do, they should get a life, and not worry about what system people are playing on.
I don't think portable gaming will ever really decline, at least for the moment, but I do think that recent events have shown that the market doesn't want to pay what these companies are asking for. $250.00 for a 3DS? Maybe that's a good value for the technology you are getting, but that doesn't make it any more of an appealing price point to the consumer. The Wii was something like $190.00 retail at that time, and the 360 also had a $200.00 slim console on the market. Consumers have to weigh their options, and I think a home console will always at least appear to provide more value for your money.
I love portable gaming, because I love being able to play something when I'm not in my home. The DS has been one of my absolute go to gaming platforms this generation, without doubt. That said, when I saw the price of the 3DS at launch I completely steered clear. Nothing wrong with those who picked it up at launch and enjoyed it, I'm simply of the opinion that $250.00 was too much money for the device. So you can bet I jumped on the recent price cut + Super Mario 3D Land, and I'm loving every minute of it.
I think that the Vita is going to face a very similar issue. I think we will see similar sales patterns with the Vita, even with it's apparently stronger launch line-up.
I love portable gaming, because I love being able to play something when I'm not in my home. The DS has been one of my absolute go to gaming platforms this generation, without doubt. That said, when I saw the price of the 3DS at launch I completely steered clear. Nothing wrong with those who picked it up at launch and enjoyed it, I'm simply of the opinion that $250.00 was too much money for the device. So you can bet I jumped on the recent price cut + Super Mario 3D Land, and I'm loving every minute of it.
I think that the Vita is going to face a very similar issue. I think we will see similar sales patterns with the Vita, even with it's apparently stronger launch line-up.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
500k shipment to cover december - 400k sold in two weeks.
80% sell through is tanking? Again, the way people are reacting you'd think it had sold absolutely nothing.
The irony is if Sony had went with a shipment of 350k they could have played the "supply constraint" card and they'd be riding the press victory chariot whilst wheeling out "we are trying hard as we can to meet demand for out extremely high tech machine, we ask customers to be patient whilst we magic up more awesome". No one would be screaming doomed, or where is my price cut? , or where is my ambassadors reception with which Sony are spoiling us.... or whatever.
Just baffling - a load of you have lost your damned minds.
witchedwiz
Member
as i said in another post, honestly, sony seems to want me to cancel my preorder..
the system itself is quite cheap, but it's kinda normal nowdays...
but... you can't expect THOSE memory storage cost, the bullshit with psn account lock and all..
you want the dough? make some compromise...
The article is right on the money. Look at stuff like iOS apps, OnLive on Android and Windows Mobile 8. Sure those might not all be viable and available right now for various reasons but they will be in 2/3 years(?) time and it's the future we're heading towards. Vita doesn't only need to live in 2011 it needs to make it till 2016 or so. It seems like most big western developers are investing a lot in smartphones and there's a lot of buzz in the development community about apps and such and I haven't seen much support for the Vita/3DS yet and I doubt the western devs show up in large numbers.
Sony and Nintendo are both facing the same problem. They released a meager update to the 2004/2005 experience. Vita offers console gaming on the go, much like the PSP did. Nintendo 3DS offers a new machine to play Mario(Kart) and Pokemon. Luckily for Nintendo Mario and Mario Kart remain popular and they managed to capture Monster Hunter as icing on the cake.
By taking little risk with their hardware Sony has actually taken a lot of risk. Sony should've spend their cash developing something 'new'. As the market shows with Wii Fit, tablets and Kinect that everyone is always looking for a new experience. The Vita does not offer that experience, it offers a new generation of console gaming on the go with games of which much are available on other systems.
Nintendo are Sony are now both fighting a struggle much like the cartridge vs. CD war. They simply can't win and have to fold at some point within the next 10 years or so. Unless something drastic happens to iOS and the development community turns around they have to accept that games in the west will in the future be a service as part of another device. With Origin, Steam, Xbox Live and other services most publishers are already preparing themselves for this future.
Sony and Nintendo are both facing the same problem. They released a meager update to the 2004/2005 experience. Vita offers console gaming on the go, much like the PSP did. Nintendo 3DS offers a new machine to play Mario(Kart) and Pokemon. Luckily for Nintendo Mario and Mario Kart remain popular and they managed to capture Monster Hunter as icing on the cake.
By taking little risk with their hardware Sony has actually taken a lot of risk. Sony should've spend their cash developing something 'new'. As the market shows with Wii Fit, tablets and Kinect that everyone is always looking for a new experience. The Vita does not offer that experience, it offers a new generation of console gaming on the go with games of which much are available on other systems.
Nintendo are Sony are now both fighting a struggle much like the cartridge vs. CD war. They simply can't win and have to fold at some point within the next 10 years or so. Unless something drastic happens to iOS and the development community turns around they have to accept that games in the west will in the future be a service as part of another device. With Origin, Steam, Xbox Live and other services most publishers are already preparing themselves for this future.
The Bookerman
Member
My Reaction to OP.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
The reason I don't mind spending $300 every two years on the iPhone (I have had my 3GS since 10/2009 and trying to hold out for iPhone 5 but...) is it truly plays an integral part for me throughout the day. Receiving phone calls, browsing the web, email, text messages, Netflix while I am at work, music, etc. The Vita? It's a video game system first and foremost. I am busy until 5:30 when I get home from work, I spend time with the family, and what not, and then have a few hours to play games or whatever. I'm not spending $500 every two years for a few hours daily. I will spend that every two years for 14 hours of the day.
why would you buy a vita every two years?. Lol
I hear Pushmo is awesome. I need to pick it up.
Is there anything stopping Sony from having an app store on day one? Vita is the next evolution of ios hardware anyway. 50 bucks is a bit much, but I don't mind software scaling up to 40 dollars and see what the market will bear. I already pay between 1 and 50 dollars for games on Steam. If Sony is smart they could have a very lucrative digital store, even if they aren't number one. Though I'm not sure if Sony will evolve fast enough.
The PSP revision history
Uno Venova
Banned
Yeah I don't understand this part, A handheld isn't something that has a new and faster version every single year.
The problem for these handhelds from my point of view is not the numbers they do holiday 2011 or holiday 2012 even. The problem is the investment third parties are willing to make in the platform. As it stands no one is planning or showing to sink serious money into dedicated handheld development except for Japanese developers like Capcom but since Japanese publishers are either backing games heavily catered towards their own market or games developed in the west to compete in the console blockbuster space there's not much room for 3DS/Vita development. We're not even counting the developers who outright refuse to enter this market like Epic Games. Pretty much all shovelware has been moved to iOS/Android already and outside of a COD logo and some vague comments EA and Activision aren't showing much support either and without those two publishers Vita won't fly in the US/EU.
I must say that between the "phone gaming is the doom of dedicated gaming handhelds" camp and the "phone gaming is shitty and doesn't affect gaming handhelds in the slightest" camp, the first is much closer to the truth and the second is outright deluded.
Gaming on mobile phones is in direct competition with portable consoles for money, time and developer support. Mobile gaming (especially on iOS) is far from "shitty". Even the much-hated $0.99 games are often quality entertainment that is worth more than a $40 "real game" on 3DS/Vita. And that's if you completely ignore the large (and increasing) amount of "real" titles such as GTA3, Sonic CD, Civ Rev, FF: Tactics and so forth.
That said, there is still a substantial market for portable consoles. I don't think anyone would argue that the 3DS (and Vita for that matter) won't deliver an overall better gaming experience than mobile phones in the foreseeable future. Gaming enthusiasts are a substantial and extremely loyal market that will continue to support these devices, especially in Japan where they are far more culturally accepted. Secondly, children remain a huge market and they are far more likely to get (and perhaps want) a 3DS for Christmas rather than an iPhone or even an iPod.
So dedicated handhelds aren't dead but they are faced with the reality of a serious decline, especially something like the Vita which tries to target the higher-end market without really being equipped to compete in it.
Gaming on mobile phones is in direct competition with portable consoles for money, time and developer support. Mobile gaming (especially on iOS) is far from "shitty". Even the much-hated $0.99 games are often quality entertainment that is worth more than a $40 "real game" on 3DS/Vita. And that's if you completely ignore the large (and increasing) amount of "real" titles such as GTA3, Sonic CD, Civ Rev, FF: Tactics and so forth.
That said, there is still a substantial market for portable consoles. I don't think anyone would argue that the 3DS (and Vita for that matter) won't deliver an overall better gaming experience than mobile phones in the foreseeable future. Gaming enthusiasts are a substantial and extremely loyal market that will continue to support these devices, especially in Japan where they are far more culturally accepted. Secondly, children remain a huge market and they are far more likely to get (and perhaps want) a 3DS for Christmas rather than an iPhone or even an iPod.
So dedicated handhelds aren't dead but they are faced with the reality of a serious decline, especially something like the Vita which tries to target the higher-end market without really being equipped to compete in it.
If you can have fun with that kind of one-trick pony and never want anything bigger & better, kudos for you. There's a reason why it's only 1$ and something like Wipeout 2048 is 30$. I'd gladly take Wipeout over iPhone games every time.
Let's see someone actually making an ORIGINAL iPhone game of the quality & scope of Final Fantasy Tactics (with the kind of graphics smartphones are capable of, not something ripped straight out of the 80s) instead of just porting 10-20 year old games, hmmm?
Diablohead
Member
don't forget that an ipod touch does the same thing as an iphone minus the phone call part, for about £149 so a lot of people buy that.
Rated-Rsuperstar
Member
Didn't you hear? Console gaming died in Japan two years ago. Now that handheld gaming is done for. Japan is doomed. DOOMED.
.
my psp 1000 still plays all psp sftware to date. It just makes no sense at all.
RoboGeorgeForeman
Banned
Wasn't the revision schedule for the PSPt? That's why I'm waiting for a few years before I get a 3DS and a PSVita.
friskykillface
Banned
Well now I'm scared/worried to buy day 1 if the price will go down like the 3DS did
Lol wat at that amazon kindle fire reference
Anyway, we are shifting towards a new market 0_o
Lol wat at that amazon kindle fire reference
Anyway, we are shifting towards a new market 0_o
GTP_Daverytimes
Member
I think you mean a high-end handheld at such a low end price. I seriously don't get why people are shitting on the Vita's pricing, it was the best thing Sony had done in a while.