The Bookerman
Member
Vita Needs games... same problem 3ds had when it launched.
-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Sony in big trouble with PS Vita, Portable market in perm decline, rotting - Forbes
- Thread starter marc^o^
- Start date
MrBelmontvedere
Member
I'm subscribing to the theory that portable gaming devices will die. everyone has a cell phone, cell phones can play games, therefore a second portable device is unnecessary.
but of course it will be a gradual transition. cell phones need to get more powerful and virtualization software like Java needs to be improved so titles don't have to be rewritten for the hundreds of different models of cell phones. but in ~5 years Nintendo et al may find themselves writing software for cell phones.
but of course it will be a gradual transition. cell phones need to get more powerful and virtualization software like Java needs to be improved so titles don't have to be rewritten for the hundreds of different models of cell phones. but in ~5 years Nintendo et al may find themselves writing software for cell phones.
That's why some people mentioned PS Suite and PSPPhone above. Sony want to court these people via those platforms.
Vita is targeted at the core gamers and their other entertainment needs.
Jim Ryan has hinted at some contents for the casuals. If so, I think those contents may be more interesting on PS Suite with some Vita extension.
Raitosaito
Member
I don't like this world
iPad has already proven the cellphone dominate theory false.
"Can I play Mario on it?"
There, that second portable device instantly became necessary,
How long do you feel before consoles suffer the same fate? In your opinion.
Yes and no. What phones have capitalized on is is also a segment that probably never owned a portable in the first place. Before they were likely doing NYT crosswords and sudoku, reading books or listening to music in their down time. I think the people that grew up on handhelds and have seriously owned them are likely to still buy them. I don't feel DS is quite repeatable but I think 3DS could easily outsell GBA which considering it was a monopoly market is hardy bad or unhealthy.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
I disagree with you, and I'll counter your argument with an analogy.
Let's take the example of cellphones and cameras.
In the past cellphone cameras were crap (no discussion there), so if people wanted a portable camera that took "fine" photos, you bought a slim camera, and if people wanted to take great photos, they bought big ass cameras.
Now phone cameras are very good, so cellphones took the "casual" photo market or the "fine" photo market, but the market for big cameras is intact, because cellphones will never be able to replicate those cameras, it's impossible.
With gaming it's the same, Nintendo benefited from the underserved casual gaming market, so it sold lots and lots of systems to people that are not dedicated gamers, they wanted good quality titles, "fine" games to pass the time. Now cellphones are taking that market, because there is no way Nintendo or Sony can effectively retain those markets and they are not interested in competing against $1 games.
But there is no possible way that the cellphone market can bite into the dedicated gamer market, because if they tried, the phones themselves loose the appeal of being practical phones (no battery, extremely expensive, bad controls, etc), so even though the phone market effectively took a big share of the handheld market, there is no way for it to take more of it.
The portable market is probably reduced, although I do believe that the "core" market expanded due to game companies efforts during this generation, so it now may be a 100 million person market instead of 200 millions, it is a drastic difference, but it still is much bigger than the 70 million GBA market.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It has the best launch lineup in ages. Games aren't the problem.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Is there any reason why Sony didn't put the Android store directly on the Vita? Is this something they could patch in the future? As a revenue stream having a .99 app store obviously isn't going to make everyone jump for joy, but as a reason to pick up the hardware it would be a huge plus. I just think having so many marketplaces on a portable device (PSOne classics, PSP Mini, PS Suite, PS Vita DL, and PSP DL) is a fucking mess that's already more fragmented than what's available on 360/PS3 (XBLA, GoD, XBL Indy, XBL Classics).
When you boot up an iOS device or Steam, it's nice to have all of your games right there in front of you in a neat little list.
Plinko said:
And this is why I believe that an "all-or-nothing" prediction for the handheld vs. mobile platforms is silly. If there is a game that everyone wants to play, and it's only on one platform, they will buy that platform. Even if the 3DS had Wii-level 3rd party support, it could still sell bucketloads as long as Nintendo provides unique experiences. The problem Sony has is that literally every game announced for Vita is either a console port or a new entry in a franchise that plays/looks better on PC/PS3/360. In the west, where console portability is not a selling point in and of itself, Sony has to work harder at differentiating the PSP lineup. If you run off the Vita launch list to your average PS360 owner, the response is going to be "I played those games last year...and?"
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
Yes they are. And it's awesome that some of you come with a straight face comparing launch lineups when the truth is when the 3DS launched there was no VITA, and when VITA launched the 3DS was a monster.
Yes, 3DS launch lineup was crap, but that doesn't matter because when VITA launched, 3DS lineup was a thousand times better.
Because then Android would compete with Sony on it's own platform that is designed to be subsidized by software sales.
Opus Angelorum
Member
A lot of truth here, a launch line-up is only as good as the competitions dictates.
While your post makes a lot of sense, I think it applies more to why phones will never replace home consoles but not to whether phones will replace portable consoles.
Portable consoles were always designed to give a more streamlined, convenient, cheap and quality gaming experience on the go, as opposed to the more complete experiences you get in home consoles. Cellphones directly challenge portable systems because they offer increasingly more streamlined, convenient, cheap and quality games themselves, therefore making portables obsolete.
My problem with idea of making of videogame systems multimedia devices is that the specs on the smartphone business side evolves almost every six months. Gaming hardwares can't get revisions as often as smartphones which makes them outdated as fast as they come out. Keeping the hardware specs steady for more than a year makes gaming systems bad multimedia platforms.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
PSP and GBA proved that there is a huge market to complete gaming experiences on handheld form, and no, current cellphones can never replace those. Maybe if future cellphones changed significantly, then sure, they can destroy portable gaming, but you can't even emulate Mario correctly on a cellphone and cellphones will not morph just to try and take all of the portable gaming market.
I don't see why dedicated gaming portables "have" to die; why some people think it's impossible for both, cellphone gaming and dedicated handheld gaming to coexist?
bigtroyjon
Member
Euro dropped under 100 Yen today, Sony is going to have to make some tough decisions in Europe and the chances of a price reduction there anytime soon isn't likely.
I would expect them to allocate more stock in the UK and NA and reduce what they expect to sell in mainland Europe.
I would expect them to allocate more stock in the UK and NA and reduce what they expect to sell in mainland Europe.
I agree.
None of these games are system seller, so yeah games are the problem.
I don't disagree -- in fact, I believe this is in large part why the successful convergence devices are coming from other industries first and foremost. Rather than being game players first and other things second, they are phones first, or tablets first, and gaming second.
So if gaming systems are bad multimedia platforms (as you say here), then Sony should abandon their persistent attempts to push the Playstation brand in that direction, and reuse that capital for gaming purposes. Find a new venue that their products can more successfully compete in.
Shai-Tan
Banned
lol
anyway, in case you guys didn't notice it was Sony's plan all along to use a slide out form factor that could later be converted into a phone like device but reports said it was overheating. with a die shrink that will be possible
the main roadblock is actually on the software end as they don't appear to be competent enough to make their own general operating system or apps so unless they acquire the expertise they have to look at bringing vita games to other operating systems like android without making the hardware into an abomination (android itself is actually more of a hardware drain than it should be so it's not so easy)+. vita was an opportunity for them to show that they can offer a value add in social/apps/browser and it looks like they failed pretty badly. the way they designed the vita they sacrificed everything for games which misunderstands that the greater competitive advantage is in bringing quality games to something more general purpose that would make people want it over the other devices out there. that will do more for them in the long run than big system sellers especially when they can't seem to make any in first party
it's OK that the apps suck and they don't have an app platform with the current form factor but slide out makes people want to use as a general purpose device. the idea that people only want finger flicking or touch games is questionable to me when hardcore games like dead space, call of duty, grand theft auto are selling well on idevices even when they are shitty badly controlling versions.
anyway, in case you guys didn't notice it was Sony's plan all along to use a slide out form factor that could later be converted into a phone like device but reports said it was overheating. with a die shrink that will be possible
the main roadblock is actually on the software end as they don't appear to be competent enough to make their own general operating system or apps so unless they acquire the expertise they have to look at bringing vita games to other operating systems like android without making the hardware into an abomination (android itself is actually more of a hardware drain than it should be so it's not so easy)+. vita was an opportunity for them to show that they can offer a value add in social/apps/browser and it looks like they failed pretty badly. the way they designed the vita they sacrificed everything for games which misunderstands that the greater competitive advantage is in bringing quality games to something more general purpose that would make people want it over the other devices out there. that will do more for them in the long run than big system sellers especially when they can't seem to make any in first party
it's OK that the apps suck and they don't have an app platform with the current form factor but slide out makes people want to use as a general purpose device. the idea that people only want finger flicking or touch games is questionable to me when hardcore games like dead space, call of duty, grand theft auto are selling well on idevices even when they are shitty badly controlling versions.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
If I'm Sony, I'd rather have people logging into PSN to play Android games than simply flipping through their smartphone. It's the same reason why MS allows Netflix, Hulu, and Last FM even though they have their own movie/music marketplace: you just have to get people accustomed to having your console online all the time, and the revenue will follow. It's not just LIVE Gold subs; people who use their 360s as media devices (as the thread on GAF clearly pointed out) are bombarded with ads for everything else on the marketplace.
Agent X
Member
PlayStation Store is a single marketplace already. Most of the categories you mentioned (apart from maybe PS Suite) are simply that, categories within the PlayStation Store.
PlayStation Suite is somewhat of a wild card, as we don't know what form PS Suite games will take on the PS Vita. Will they be sold as a separate category of "PS Suite" games, or ordinary PS Vita games?
The problem that I have with Sony's downloadable game strategy is that devices that are "PlayStation Certified" (such as Xperia Play or the Sony tablets) but not actually PlayStation branded are getting separate online marketplaces from the PlayStation Store. The phone/tablet marketplaces might be branded as "PlayStation Store", but if it's not a truly unified store (like Amazon's Kindle e-book store), then it will be confusing to consumers. Developers might not be very fond of it either, as it would take away what could be a strong selling point.
A unified PlayStation Store with shared content between all PlayStation Certified devices (and not just PlayStation branded devices) could be a compelling platform to develop for. Consumers would have a real incentive to buy games through PS Store if they could freely transfer them between their Vita and possible smartphone or tablet devices--pick whichever device is convenient or best suited to the type of game you want to play.
This shareable content strategy has worked well with Amazon's Kindle line. Users have incentive to buy Kindle books because they work on their PC, their smartphone, their tablet, and also the Kindle hardware device that they might not own yet but intend to buy soon because of the knowledge that their book collection will transfer over seamlessly. If PS Suite games can be shared in the same way, then there is a good chance that gamers that are weaned on PS Suite games on Android who later shop for a dedicated portable game system (because they want real joypad/button controls) will choose PS Vita first and foremost for the same reason.
Well, Sony seems very motivated to force their "premium" corporate philosophy into the Playstation brand which as played a great part in it's recent demise. If they're not charging the premium factor through multimedia, they'll do so through other means (the proprietary memcards).
Edit: I'm wrong about Sony charging premium through the memcards. They'll do so through any other means whenever they'll have the chance.
It's meaningless to have Android store on Vita if Vita doesn't run Android. PS Suite has its own store. The mix of Playstation titles are indeed confusing primarily because of different DRM and run-time limitations. They can still be hosted on the same store, under different categories.
You're avoiding my point. How often we've seen new specifications & technologies being introduced for mobile related tech the past 3 years? I'm talking about OS and hardware related changes.
I think Sony can pull things together...but I don't think dedicated videogame players will be competitive during the next hardware cycle. They must become phones. The best thing Sony can do next cycle is create an OS you can program to and have a phone that can be upgraded every year, but will have no problems with BC, and older units can still play new games but at lower settings.
Shai-Tan
Banned
specs are only one thing. the smartphone devices are suffering the same problem PC games have that it makes business sense to also make the game for the lesser devices so you get games which are not taking full advantage of the ipad 2 or iphone 4s beause they also need to run on a iphone 4 or ipad 1. and it's not so much of a disadvantage to have die shrink and greater clocks as that is what allows a company like Sony to make a convergence device without sacrificing the games. home consoles have shown that developers like a stable platform and it's possible to make graphics competitive. it also allows for the device to occupy a cheaper price point as it ages. there are barriers in the way from them making a successful convergence device but I don't think competitive specs is one of the important issues
Slurpy2k20
Member
Anyone who is shocked by this or disagrees with it needs to get out of their basement and face reality. Most people don't give a shit about dedicated portable game systems anymore, especially ones that command the price of the Vita. Yes, the market is in decline, and will continue to be. The appeal is non-existant beyond the hardcore.
I think not much difference to launch early beyond short term boost. They should think through their strategy and lay down all the ground work in the mean time. The western world should be tougher than Japan.
The dedicated entertainment device market is going through a transformation right now. It may be expanding instead of contracting. Sony should try to ride the wave instead of running away or going under. Vita may be a good bridging device since its hardware is similar to cellphones and tablets, but with more control options.
Yeah, not exactly the ideal launch window for Vita. It'll be the hot new gadget for like a month, then everyone will be fawning over the iPad 3 with retina display in March.
Again, give us the empirical data to support this claim. I assume you can't, because it currently doesn't exist.
nelsonroyale
Member
The flipside of the phone gaming market is it might get more people interested in games... I see quite a few people playing stuff like angry bird who have never been into games...fair enough, that will be as far as the majority go...but it might spark interest in others.
I only played Angry Bird for the first time a couple of weeks ago...its decent fun. It reminded me of worms except much more bare bones. Not my cup of tea though
I only played Angry Bird for the first time a couple of weeks ago...its decent fun. It reminded me of worms except much more bare bones. Not my cup of tea though
The expected behavior should be: People will compare iPad 3 with Vita and conclude that the latter is doomed. So Vita should continue to be in the news after iPad 3 launch.
The trick is to organize something unexpected/different to set Vita apart at that time. Nope, AR games is not it. ^_^
Yap, this is already happening at home. Wife used to think gaming is a waste of time, but the kid and her are addicted to a few iOS mini-games. Now they understand Resistance 3 and Demon's Souls better for my sake. ;-)
I am pretty sure that the lack of a new Monster Hunter title on the PS Vita and the availability of one on the 3DS is the major reason behind the drop-off in PS Vita sales.
The PSP is basically a Monster Hunter playing machine in Japan. Nine times out of ten when I see someone playing the PSP on the train, it is that game. Now I am starting to see people with that ugly attachment on 3DSs playing away at Monster Hunter. Sony should definitely dish out the money and get Capcom to make a PS Vita version.
The PSP is basically a Monster Hunter playing machine in Japan. Nine times out of ten when I see someone playing the PSP on the train, it is that game. Now I am starting to see people with that ugly attachment on 3DSs playing away at Monster Hunter. Sony should definitely dish out the money and get Capcom to make a PS Vita version.
Dr. Acid Avatar
Member
Just give me a Demon's/Dark Souls and a Monster Hunter title for the Vita and you guys can call the system a failure, the best thing ever or whatever you want to label it. I'll live in ignorance and love every second of it.
I have to agree that this is a huge roadblock.
Its the OS/Software that separates Sony and Apple.
Without a proper OS Apple is just Sony at its current state, with a good OS and integration Sony could easily be the next Apple.
I don't know if it was on this forum or another but someone made a great hopeful suggestion that Sony should have made a bid for WebOS.
Sony Laptops/Desktops/Playstation Consoles/Walkman/Blue Ray Players/TV's/etc running a modified WebOS would have been sweet.
More decadence with traditional portable games if you ask me.
You pay almost as much as you do for a console game and all the games people hold up as reasons why portable gaming is so good would be better off as full console games or downloadable games.
Q
qizah
Unconfirmed Member
Seems like PS Vita's biggest problem is largely the same as what Nintendo's problem was. $249.99 is too high for the average consumer and the library of games is lacking.
I'm sorry, but I don't see anything special about Vita's launch besides Uncharted. The problem that Vita mostly faces (although, it might be a good thing for some) is that a lot of it's games are just ports or portable versions of console games (by all means, correct me if I'm wrong but that's all I see). That's fine for some and there's an audience for it. It worked for the PSP throughout it's lifetime and it did incredibly well for Sony's first handheld.
I think the PS Vita is largely going to have the same fate as the PSP and that's not a bad thing for most people. Personally speaking, I hope it isn't just a PSP and I'm hoping for more original content that aligns with my gaming tastes.
I'm sorry, but I don't see anything special about Vita's launch besides Uncharted. The problem that Vita mostly faces (although, it might be a good thing for some) is that a lot of it's games are just ports or portable versions of console games (by all means, correct me if I'm wrong but that's all I see). That's fine for some and there's an audience for it. It worked for the PSP throughout it's lifetime and it did incredibly well for Sony's first handheld.
I think the PS Vita is largely going to have the same fate as the PSP and that's not a bad thing for most people. Personally speaking, I hope it isn't just a PSP and I'm hoping for more original content that aligns with my gaming tastes.
The value must come entirely from the games library, but yes, absolutely -- given enough high quality games I think prices in excess of 200 dollars are sustainable.
The problem is that getting to that point (where you have a massive library of games) requires high sales to begin with (so that developers will develop games), and getting there typically requires low prices.
Interestingly, I actually believe a system is worth more money in the fifth year of its existence than it is in its first -- but it's extremely difficult to convince consumers of that if you've already sold the system for 130.
ReBurn
Gold Member
I have to believe that this device would be just fine if Sony keeps the software coming. My biggest beef with the PSP was the poor software support. But I love the handheld. I probably used it as much for the Internet radio and web browser as I did for gaming.
I think Sony needs to embrace apps for the device, too. Having an app store where developers can port and sell their iOS and Android wares would be a free revenue stream for Sony. Just release an SDK and take a cut for hosting and delivery of apps. If the concern is that Angry Birds is cutting into the action then bring Angry Birds to your platform and get a slice of that pie.
I think Sony needs to embrace apps for the device, too. Having an app store where developers can port and sell their iOS and Android wares would be a free revenue stream for Sony. Just release an SDK and take a cut for hosting and delivery of apps. If the concern is that Angry Birds is cutting into the action then bring Angry Birds to your platform and get a slice of that pie.
You could always do what Nintendo did with the DS - release new versions at a higher price point.
DangerousDave
Member
You have a point here, because the catalogue is much bigger (and, in that new generation, probably the firmware updates the machine will be able to do much more things in year 4 than in year 1), so the device is better.
But also it has less time to be enjoyed until it get deprecated for a newer device. First users pay for the promise of games and the potential use of the console during a lot of years, more than for what the console is worthy in the day 1. A year 5 user has a better product, cheaper, but the potential enjoyement time of the device is less (unless he don't care about playing in a deprecated console where there are no new games, and skip the new ones during the next years).
charlequin
Banned
Yep, and this is exactly why I believe both Sony and Nintendo made a huge tactical error in their pricing. Whether or not smartphones are impinging on the handheld market, it's just a fact that effectively the cheapest general-purpose phone-OS devices are coming in at $200, and the vast majority of the ones people actually buy are a good bit more. A $130 device is "cheap as free" -- people will buy it for their kids, or pick it up to play a single game, or otherwise lower their standards for it at basically the slightest excuse (and thereby open themselves up as software buyers.) Targeting a price like this would've been far smarter because it would've effectively filled a niche that phone companies were unlikely to go.
This was a pretty genius move, for sure.
That's because every gen starts from zero base.
People typically only jump onboard early if a product offers a new experience, 'specially if early adopters gain an advantage. The old Internet gold rush was somewhat like this when people tried to grab good domain names or email IDs.
A seamless platform strategy like iOS would also provide better benefits because of backward compatibility (Proven games at a cheaper rate).
Under Kutaragi, the launch products used higher quality components. Later iterations may use cheaper parts as they cut cost more aggressively. This is somewhat counterbalanced by the risk of using new technologies though. Despite the initial stuck pixels complains, I was really happy with the launch PSP. My replacement PSP feels cheaper (Left my PSP on a plane :-( )
People typically only jump onboard early if a product offers a new experience, 'specially if early adopters gain an advantage. The old Internet gold rush was somewhat like this when people tried to grab good domain names or email IDs.
A seamless platform strategy like iOS would also provide better benefits because of backward compatibility (Proven games at a cheaper rate).
Under Kutaragi, the launch products used higher quality components. Later iterations may use cheaper parts as they cut cost more aggressively. This is somewhat counterbalanced by the risk of using new technologies though. Despite the initial stuck pixels complains, I was really happy with the launch PSP. My replacement PSP feels cheaper (Left my PSP on a plane :-( )