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2011/12 Dec/Jan NBA Season |OT| "Shannon Brown is not walking through that door."

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Corey Maggette has a PER of 3.06. PER vindicated
But last season he had a PER of 15.8--better than average. Any GM or coach who wanted him based on that would have been fucked. Obviously this is SSS and he could still rise to his former levels PER-wise--but anyone who watches the games knows that even last year, Corey was not contributing at the clip PER suggested he was. So if it's not predictive of wins, what the hell's the point? For pointless ESPN this-player-is-better-than-that-player style arguments? I can find lots of other stats that will tell me if a player's been good or bad this season.
 
PER isn't very predictive, but it's good at distinguishing the shit chuckers from the efficient players.
Uhh, it's almost the exact opposite. The more you shoot, the more your PER goes up, even if you don't make more than 35% of them.

It's one of a couple known flaws that Hollinger can't/won't fix. Like the assisted % part. Although unlike that part you can't simply replace the input, you'd have to rewrite the entire thing and make it far more non-linear and harder to calculate. And I don't think it'd work with the ESPN data anymore.
But last season he had a PER of 15.8--better than average. Any GM or coach who wanted him based on that would have been fucked. Obviously this is SSS and he could still rise to his former levels PER-wise--but anyone who watches the games knows that even last year, Corey was not contributing at the clip PER suggested he was. So if it's not predictive of wins, what the hell's the point? For pointless ESPN this-player-is-better-than-that-player style arguments? I can find lots of other stats that will tell me if a player's been good or bad this season.
It's an older stat from when we only had box scores, that has because of its wide press acceptance and replication of per game stats become far popular and easier to grasp the basics. EWA is Hollinger's attempt to translate it into projecting wins.
 
Uhh, it's almost the exact opposite. The more you shoot, the more your PER goes up, even if you don't make more than 35% of them.

It's one of a couple known flaws that Hollinger can't/won't fix. Like the assisted % part. Although unlike that part you can't simply replace the input, you'd have to rewrite the entire thing and make it far more non-linear and harder to calculate. And I don't think it'd work with the ESPN data anymore.
Yeah, doesn't he just assume a constant for assisted % when we have the actual data? I mean, like I said, I have reservations about basically all advanced basketball stats, but PER really is one of the shittiest.
 
lol unlikely.
2011_10_25_20_25_img_fotki_yandex_ru_get_4711_122796979_8_0_86534_1633d20a_L.gif

what is that from. I must get this.
 
You think Chauncey throws up asshole 3s? Baron in pringles is going to be a trainwreck with added lol because hope will temporarily return only to crumble again
What's truly funny is the NY fans acting like Baron will flu game the season for the Knicks and make Amare into an all-star again.
 
Yeah, doesn't he just assume a constant for assisted % when we have the actual data? I mean, like I said, I have reservations about basically all advanced basketball stats, but PER really is one of the shittiest.
It assumes the team %, which you had to do back in 1989 through about 2002 because you didn't have any other data. Personally, it's good he's not tinkering with it so that it stays the same metric over history. (Winston and Sagarin changed the WinVal formula so much you can't use it to compare between years or properly examine past projections. Berri has a similar problem with WP, though it's not as big.)

What's not good is how ESPN treats it.

Hollinger is a far better writer than statistician, which makes sense, his background is journalism and he has always worked in sports journalism. And it's why PER is linear weight and uses boxscore stats, it's something he could calculate easily. (Look at any attempt Simmons has done to make an actual formula based rating system.) He got his fame from stats because of his ability to put words and observations to the stats. It's why he won't ever work for an NBA team but Dan Rosenbaum, Dean Oliver, etc. have been for nearly a decade. (Dean's an alright writer, but his background is engineering and statistical applications so it's no shock that his statistical models are far more complex and exacting than Hollinger's.)
 
Jazz have had probably the best injury luck in the entire league so far: Lakers without Bynum (not an injury but he's out, whatever), Hornets without Eric Gordon, and now the Bucks without Bogut (actually not an injury either, "personal matters", whatever). And no injuries to Harris or Howard. Very inflated record on the way, oh yeah, except inflated win totals don't help the team at all this year :/
 
Jazz have had probably the best injury luck in the entire league so far: Lakers without Bynum (not an injury but he's out, whatever), Hornets without Eric Gordon, and now the Bucks without Bogut (actually not an injury either, "personal matters", whatever). And no injuries to Harris or Howard. Very inflated record on the way, oh yeah, except inflated win totals don't help the team at all this year :/

Why don't Milsap play 30+ minutes a game? I'm confused when I see the minutes played for the players on that team in games.
 
Why don't Milsap play 30+ minutes a game? I'm confused when I see the minutes played for the players on that team in games.

The only rational explanation for the minutes situation is that the team is desperately trying to inflate Al Jefferson's trade value so they can dump him because otherwise, him taking so many minutes and shots from Favors, Millsap, and Kanter makes no sense. And then there's the Raja Bell situation (averaging 20 minutes a game, scoring two points a game on terrible efficiency while not being guarded and not contributing anything on defense) which might be one of the worst things ever.
 
In watching the Hawks/Bulls, they run more offense through McGrady than I thought they would. Also, a scorer is always going to be a scorer.
 
Blazers season saved

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
Mills wants to return to the Trail Blazers, but it's unclear if he can obtain a FIBA letter of clearance to play before March, source says.
6 seconds ago

Adrian Wojnarowski
WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
Patty Mills has been released by Xinjiang of China Basketball Assoc., source tells Y! Sports. He's been out 10 days with hamstring injury.
1 minute ago
 
Is anyone watching the cleveland v charlotte game? Is there a reason Kemba hasn't done a thing in the game or is he just being benched?
 
I'm watching the Thunder game right now...how come I don't hear JR? Or is he just not going all out JR and containing his voice a bit? LOL

I'm watching League Pass, btw. DirecTV
 
This Bulls-Hawks game is ugly as hell. Terrible officiating and ugly ass offense on both sides: the Hawks throwing up stupid, lazy jumpers and the Bulls not being able to create any shots.
 
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