That's what YOU think!!!!!!
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US PoliGAF 2012 | The Romney VeepStakes: Waiting for Chris Christie to Sing
- Thread starter Invisible_Insane
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That's what YOU think!!!!!!
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Its funny, I go drudge up old posts of mine from the late 90's/early 00's and just get embarrassed. i was a pompous ass and my posts just oozed with douchebaggery.
I think the only chance of that happening is with Gingrich winning SC, Paul and Santorum dropping out (Maybe even an endorsement from Sabtirum), and that he/his super PACs have enough money left to saturate Florida's airwaves with more negative ads than Romney's compatriots can muster and come out on top there.
The winning Florida part is the long shot, I don't see how he won't get steamrolled by Romney's money...
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Me three. I feared his - at the time - apparent power to win elections. Now I realize that the only reason he's had staying power in Texas is because we're still pretty red and at this point he's got half the state in his pocket.
Limiting campaign contributions to $100 is both the reason he got nowhere and the reason he was a good candidate. He literally only had one person on his staff.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I wonder how this talk of open marriages will impact SC. Today should have been a semi-victory lap for Newt, instead people are talking about his personal life again.
Can't wait for tonight's debate
Can't wait for tonight's debate
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Sounds like a good person, but a terrible "politician." It is the definition of "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em"
Too bad, I would LOVE to see a massive campaign finance reform bill. The way it is now, money absolutely determines the outcome of nearly every race.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Listening to Dennis Miller on the way to work today and he had a caller who explained he supported Perry for governor for one reason: SECESSION!!!! Yes, this caller who when asked how succession could happen in Texas and couldn't answer, supported Rick Perry for governor and would've supported him for President because of his state rights shpiel and his support of the soldiers urinating on the taliban.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
He will just counter any attack with, "Romney comes from a family of avowed polygamists!!" "I am not a shitbag!"
Cloving - I think you mean secession.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Herp durp yurp.
The Librarian
Banned
If Newt wins SC he'll get a lot of media talk, momentum, and more money. You'll hear statements such as this on cable: "No Republican nominee has won the GOP nomination without winning South Carolina. Is Mitt in trouble?" I predict that Santorum will drop out after SC, further coalescing conservative voters around Gingrich.
It's interesting. As Steven Benen points out, most of it is old news. How much can old news have an impact? The information has been out there for quite a while. Remember, GOP voters weren't bothered by the sexual allegations of Herman Cain. It took as many as four different women to tear him down.
Dude Abides
Banned
You guys don't understand. Newt is a genius and a world-historical figure. It would be unfair to women for him to give the gift of his penis to only one woman (at a time).
PhoenixDark
Banned
Probably, although Rush is already leading the "everyone has a bitter ex lol" brigade. If he wins big in SC who knows, maybe he can turn things around in Florida too. If he can survive until Super Tuesday he could at least win the southern states+Alaska; that's about half of the contests on that day. IMO that's his best possible hope - he certainly won't beat Romney, but can prolong things.
I just wonder what Santorum does. We can probably declare his Iowa victory a bust, as he has flailed about since then. I'm surprised his advisers never said "hey, our Iowa victory speech was highly praised and well regarded. How about we carry that message forward?" Instead we've gotten more rambling about his electoral history in PA (while ignoring his last election race of course) and rants about family and gays. Everyone who is concerned about family/social issues already supports him, I see no point in re-enforcing that continually
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
Another fucking debate tonight? How many has there been so far? 20?
RustyNails
Member
I wonder how Perry and his supporter would have reacted if we had a video of Taliban pissing on the corpses of dead marines.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
That's different!
I don't dispute that, I just wonder if it would be enough to win Florida.
Newt's going all-out in SC, even if he retakes the mantle of the Not Romney and the conservatives coalesce around him at long last, I don't know if he'd have the funds or time to take Florida.
Then again, I have no idea how far in advance ad buys need to be, or how long it takes to put one together, etc.
Invisible_Insane
Member
How about some labels or some links or something? What is this, FOX?
adamsappel
Member
If Newt's habit of leaving his wives when they become ill with cancer and MS didn't hurt him in any way, I don't see how wanting to bang two chicks is going to. But, then again, I don't really understand the mind of the average Republican voter.
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
I wonder if the article contributes to the fact that people have exhausted their benefits.
You really need to weigh the pros and cons.
On the one hand, he cheated on his sick wife with a younger woman, twice, but on the other hand, he is really not Mitt Romney.
I don't want to believe it's because he's a Mormon, but I'm running out of explanations.
Invisible_Insane
Member
He's kind of a dick?
The effect of that is felt in a different data point. Two key numbers are reported each week:
In the week ending January 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 352,000, a decrease of 50,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 402,000. The 4-week moving average was 379,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 382,500.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 7, was 3,432,000, a decrease of 215,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,647,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,576,250, a decrease of 34,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,610,250.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 7, was 3,432,000, a decrease of 215,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,647,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,576,250, a decrease of 34,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,610,250.
Initial claims are a measure of job losses. Lower claims are associated with stronger job markets. A range of 300-350k is considered normal, and a sign of an improving labor market.
The insured employment number can drop for two reasons. Either someone who was drawing UI got a job, or their benefits ran out. The graph (and article) were focusing on initial claims, so expiring benefits were not a factor.
Too many people have forgotten the people that have run out of benefits, though, which is unfortunate.
Black Republican
Member
i know right? far more interested in the primaries, didnt even bother watch the new hampshire polls/coverage
oh and im probably one of the few on this board who wants a mitt v obama GE. i think an interesting contrast will show in the debates.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Which contrast? I'm curious for your perspective
I doubt the ensuing process would have been appreciably different. The outcome for both scenarios is a push; it was a virtual tie. Romney proved he was a viable candidate to a firmly conservative electorate.
The difficulty with forecasting the House stems from the countervailing shifts from 2008 to 2010. House elections are not independent events. That's why a seemingly improbable scenario, such as Democrats securing initially vulnerable seats, winning the toss ups, and stealing a few GOP districts, could prove eminently possible. While the presidential vote will probably shift to the GOP from 2008, the latest House elections occurred in 2010. And the House vote share will undoubtedly shift to the Democrats. Notwithstanding, will it be substantial enough to flip the House? I would have dismissed the possibility only a few months ago. Now, if the upward trajectory of the economy proves sustained, it would improve the Democrats' prospects enough to make the scenario plausible. I actually think qualified optimism is warranted.
jamesinclair
Banned
Shows that you can be rich and still be an idiot and lack all financial sense.
What the ROI on a perry investment?
So, what do you guys think the chances that Biden will be the VP?
He is sorta safe, a bit bumbling sure but he's largely not gonna lose you any votes. But he's not really gonna gain any either. But that Tepid approach is not gonna set Biden up in 2016.
Hillary would be polarizing and not safe, but I think she'll gain more votes than she'd lose. Also people that wouldn't vote for Hillary largely wouldn't vote for Obama anyway. And Hillary would be very well poised for a 2016 run.
He is sorta safe, a bit bumbling sure but he's largely not gonna lose you any votes. But he's not really gonna gain any either. But that Tepid approach is not gonna set Biden up in 2016.
Hillary would be polarizing and not safe, but I think she'll gain more votes than she'd lose. Also people that wouldn't vote for Hillary largely wouldn't vote for Obama anyway. And Hillary would be very well poised for a 2016 run.
Invisible_Insane
Member
If they donated to his PAC then the money isn't necessarily wasted.
Also, assuming he's able to hold onto the governorship of Texas (is he term limited or anything?), there'll probably be some business opportunities there for campaign
The Librarian
Banned
It's not happening.
adamsappel
Member
Is this a troll post, ronito? Haven't we dismissed this plenty?
I don't think it would ever happen, unless Biden gets ill. What kind of oppo can anyone dredge up on Biden? But, there's a lot of old baggage that Republicans could use against Clinton if she were on the ticket. And we don't need to add conservative sexism to the mix (had enough of that in the Democratic primaries).
I don't think it would ever happen, unless Biden gets ill. What kind of oppo can anyone dredge up on Biden? But, there's a lot of old baggage that Republicans could use against Clinton if she were on the ticket. And we don't need to add conservative sexism to the mix (had enough of that in the Democratic primaries).
I think both would be too old by then. Clinton has done her hard line statement about it, and Biden will be entering Crypt Keeper years by the time 2016 rolls around.
I can see Hillary going to VP and Biden to State. But even that would be unusual and strange and strikes me as unlikely.
Dude's running against Gingrich and Santorum.
He's the least dickish of the three.
Cain built his brand and will make shitload of money in speaking fees, book deals etc. as a result.
Rick Perry pretty much killed his national political career.
I think it comes down to how confident Obama is feeling. If he's confident then there's no reason not to keep Biden. But if he's feeling threatened then I think he might have to rethink Biden. Like I said, Biden wont cost him votes but he wont gain him any either.
But if the nominee is Romney I think Obama will feel confident.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I thought choosing Hilary would be smart too but as others have pointed out it'd seem desperate at the same time. That he'd just be choosing her to get the female vote.
The Librarian
Banned
SC "yawning" at Gingrich's past problems.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...rs-dull-the-sting-of-newts-past.php?ref=fpblg
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...rs-dull-the-sting-of-newts-past.php?ref=fpblg
Sherrod Brown >>> Cuomo
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
Matt Damon 2016
The Librarian
Banned
I...agree with TA? Whoa.
Warren 2016.
Frank the Great
Banned
yes.
The Librarian
Banned
Warren would have a decent shot at getting the nomination if she wanted it. You want a way to excite the base? You pick her.
Its funny, I go drudge up old posts of mine from the late 90's/early 00's and just get embarrassed. i was a pompous ass and my posts just oozed with douchebaggery.
I remember that AB
lets make sure she actually wins her race first
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