Trigger Warning
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Word. Democrats were giddy with delight when Reagan won the Republican nomination in 1980. We all know how that turned out.
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US PoliGAF 2012 | The Romney VeepStakes: Waiting for Chris Christie to Sing
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Word. Democrats were giddy with delight when Reagan won the Republican nomination in 1980. We all know how that turned out.
Immediately after 9/11, when he stood up on top of the rubble of the World Trade Center and heroically declared war.
It's a moment that comes only maybe once every century. How can a President ever live up to that?
At this point, they're hoping for an unenthused liberal base. I think there's a few steps that they can take over the coming months to increase his liberal cred and shore up the base. Honestly? Gingrich getting the nomination might also do that by itself.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Newt isnt Reagan.
Devolution
Member
Don't know what you guys expect out of a place that elected Strom Thurmond to the senate over and over and over.
The Librarian
Banned
Are people here doubting Obama's chances against Newt?
More so for the fact that Newt's toxic and aggressive rhetoric will no doubt influence people.
I'm not really worried about him, but I am concerned how this will carry over to people who are vulnerable to this.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
The Tea Party is so full of shit.
"We stand for restoring HONOR and KAWNSTITOOSHUNAL valu~WHOOOOOOOO GO NOOOT! FUCK POORS AND BROWN DUDES YYYEEEEAURGH!
"We stand for restoring HONOR and KAWNSTITOOSHUNAL valu~WHOOOOOOOO GO NOOOT! FUCK POORS AND BROWN DUDES YYYEEEEAURGH!
Maybe his base, but he doesn't do well around moderates for a reason.
But that's good, or do you seriously think Newt has any chance of beating Obama? Obama will beat both Newt and Romney IMO, but with Newt the difference will be even higher.
They sure as hell will if Newt is the Republican. For example, my roommate is a moderate conservative, grew up and raised by conservatives, and doesn't like Obama. He wanted Huntsman to win the primary, but now that he's out, he's actually thinking about voting for Obama or not voting at all if Romney wins. If Newt wins, he said he's not only going to vote for Obama, but donate and try to convince everyone he knows to do so as well just because Newt and the other not-Romneys scare him too much.
A Newt candidacy will make independents run out and vote for Obama just to keep Newt away from the White House. He terrifies everyone except the hardcore Republican base.
Not in the slightest.
Which is more important for Congressional elections.
This is GAF, kingdom of chicken littles.
And riling the base may be all he needs.
As it stands now, the base isn't very excited about Romney.
... But then again, the base would have voted Romney anyway. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise for Obama.
EternalGamer
Banned
I think they greatly overestimate what happened in the midterms. Demography shows that the people that showed up for midterms skewed older and minority turn out was low.
This is less likely to happen in a presidentially election, which is more high profile.
David From was talking about this a few nights ago, actually. He is worried that the GOP is in for a reality check. They have an aging constituency.
Noise Pollution
Banned
Thats one dude. There is absolutely no way to predict how moderates will vote. Thats why I prefer to call them swing voters personally. You never know what little thing will make an individual choose one candidate over the other.
This ain't blessing in disguise for Obama - if Newt is the GOP nominee, he'll be doing Conga and coke lines anyday everyday.
The conservative base would have coalesced around Romney. But the key point is that Romney also would have gotten more moderates. In a general election, I still think Obama would beat Romney, but it would be tighter and the Democrats wouldn't win as many Congressional seats (and could lose the Senate).
Sure, Newt shores up the base. But he's repugnant to most independents and has one of the worst records of any presidential candidates in recent memory on personal morality and likability. And he would galvanize liberals. He's who Democrats should want to run against.
acheron_xl
Member
I suspect this might be the case. I think a lot more Democrats and independents will come out to cast anti-Gingrich votes that would otherwise stay home if Romney were the candidate.
Additionally, Obama's position is incomparable to Carter's. The economy was on a decidedly negative trajectory in late 1979/1980. He was especially vulnerable.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
This is true, but these candidates are simply making as many unopposed attacks on Obama and drifting further rightward as this goes on, which won't help.
That won't be the case in the general, they'll be directly called on their bullshit, and don't forget, Bam's is an INCREDIBLE campaigner.
Just watch his victory speech in SC, four years ago, and compare it to the shit tonight.
And if you doubt his ability to directly take the GOP on, just watch his performance against them, in their own house. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y04g6OPLnQ
I agree, personally. But part of me is concerned that Newt's values resonate with a lot of Americans... I hope that's not the case.
As much as I dislike all of the candidates in the Republican primary, Newt Gingrich is the only one I suspect could possibly be a sociopath. I don't know how smart he is, but he presents himself as smart enough to be elected (unlike Palin who could have never been elected).
Hopefully is manifest scumminess will keep him from being electable.
Honestly, at this point I am pulling for Romney.
EternalGamer
Banned
I agree with you generally.
However, again remember that you have win some of these "swing voters" away from how they voted last time.
I doubt you are going to accomplish that by telling them the dude they voted for and his voters are radical socialist who are un-American.
Gary Whitta
Member
The 1bn Dollar Obama Machine is going to CRUSH whatever bruised and bloodied weaksauce emerges from this clusterfuck.
This.
And definitely not with Newt's many racist remarks in his speeches - this works great in South Carolina, but it's gonna kill him in general election.
Mortrialus
Banned
I think it's possible Romney could be a legitimate psychopath as well. Corporate heads suffer from psychopathy at four times the rate of the general population. It takes a special skill set to run a corporation. Being able to destroy lives on a whim, and enjoying possessing said power actually comes in pretty handy when running a corporation.
Byakuya769
Member
And then there's Teddy Kennedy.
Noise Pollution
Banned
Thats what Newt is counting on. He is a career politician and will do what he must to win who he needs. Right now hes just mobilizing the base, in a month he'll have changed his strategy completely.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Couldn't chime in till now because I was out.
My thinking here is that SC is still a very different Republican electorate than NH or Iowa and Newt's debate performances gave them exactly what they wanted, a red meat giving, Obama bashing conservative who will not apologize for saying what a lot of right wing conservatives think. Newt winning with 40% is impressive though.
Does it matter? It can maybe gives us a more prolonged race. Delegate count is closer now. Right now it looks like Newt and Mitt neck and neck with Santorum a bit behind.
But it doesn't look like Santorum is dropping out anytime soon (maybe that changes after we get latest Florida polls). We will also have to observe the national polls. But this race has been so fucking fluid you can't way anything for sure.
Current Florida projections are:
Mitt has a lot of money to spend attacking Gingrich. Newt doesn't have that much money.
Mitt has a lot of people who will speak for him and against Gingrich in media. Newt doesn't.
Upcoming primaries:
These aren't red meat conservative states like SC. If Newt can survive the upcoming onslaught and continue to give the kind of debate performances as last week, then he has a chance. Otherwise, Romney will be nominee come on or before Super Tuesday.
My thinking here is that SC is still a very different Republican electorate than NH or Iowa and Newt's debate performances gave them exactly what they wanted, a red meat giving, Obama bashing conservative who will not apologize for saying what a lot of right wing conservatives think. Newt winning with 40% is impressive though.
Does it matter? It can maybe gives us a more prolonged race. Delegate count is closer now. Right now it looks like Newt and Mitt neck and neck with Santorum a bit behind.
But it doesn't look like Santorum is dropping out anytime soon (maybe that changes after we get latest Florida polls). We will also have to observe the national polls. But this race has been so fucking fluid you can't way anything for sure.
Current Florida projections are:
Mitt has a lot of money to spend attacking Gingrich. Newt doesn't have that much money.
Mitt has a lot of people who will speak for him and against Gingrich in media. Newt doesn't.
Upcoming primaries:
These aren't red meat conservative states like SC. If Newt can survive the upcoming onslaught and continue to give the kind of debate performances as last week, then he has a chance. Otherwise, Romney will be nominee come on or before Super Tuesday.
thegreyfox
Member
So I guess this means Newt has the VP slot in the bag....
EternalGamer
Banned
Let's not judge all of S. Carolina by the tiny group that vote in GOP primaries. Even "deeply conservative" states have a very sizable percentage of moderates.
Obama won around 40% even here in MS.
Yeah, but we aren't in a pre-internet world anymore - what he says is gonna be lambasted back to him in the general election.
Fine, fine. Editing that stupid comment.
acheron_xl
Member
That is old data. Things can change dramatically; literally overnight.
Via FiveThirtyEight:
Aaron Strife
Banned
Gingrich wouldn't have a chance at beating Obama. Of the four GOP candidates still in the race (him, Romney, Paul, Santorum) he polls the worst consistently and RCP has him losing by an 11 point spread.
He's a known entity and nobody likes him. Obama would clear 400 EVs easily.
ed: Guessing Gingrich can win FL and MN and that'll keep him going through to Super Tuesday.
He's a known entity and nobody likes him. Obama would clear 400 EVs easily.
ed: Guessing Gingrich can win FL and MN and that'll keep him going through to Super Tuesday.
Noise Pollution
Banned
Good point but a lot of 40+ yo moderates won't notice.
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
dat re-reverse racism?
The only racism that exists is reverse racism.
I don't think it would be close, but republicans always fall in line. Yuck.
Mortrialus
Banned
Martin Luther King Jr. won against racism. So we're all good now.
40+ yo moderates are still fresh on Newt during the Clinton years. lol.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Awesome exit poll from SC:
SC has a 30%ish Black population
SC has a 30%ish Black population
The Librarian
Banned
dat diversity
Awesome exit poll from SC:
SC has a 30%ish Black population
Republican Primary. I would be surprised if that percentage changes much from state to state.
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