Black Mamba
Member
you can't amnesty mid-season.
2012 NBA Feb |OT| Rubio Early Favorite for Racist of the Year
- Thread starter reilo
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you can't amnesty mid-season.
Rodeo Clown
All aboard! The Love train!
You know that the team with the worst record is more likely to pick 4 than 1, right?
Yeah, I can see the tanks are bigger than what China rolled out to Tiananman Square.
-5.8 pt differential and only 1.5 games ahead of the worst winning percentage of ALL TIME?
NOT SUSPICIOUS AT ALL. ISOLATED INCIDENT. LOTTERY IS NEVER FIXED.
It wouldnt let us make a move. it would just clear some luxury tax
It's split at 25% for each of the top four picks I think.
So yeah, I know it's more likely that we won't pick #1. But I don't think we're more likely to pick 4 than 1 (except going by past history.)
I don't care, Stern made the odds, he'll have to live or die by them.
edit: I've given him fair warning here and on Twitter. Now it's up to Stern.
he wouldn't have lasted this long if this was otherwise
Rodeo Clown
All aboard! The Love train!
Nah. They are significantly more likely to draft 4th than they are 1st. 25% chance to win vs. a 36% chance they nab the 4th pick. It's busted.
Black Mamba
Member
Don't think that's right. I think at bare minimum, you have a 60% chance of being top 3.
The odds are probably a lot higher, but I don't have the patience to set up the distribution with variable probabilities based on the 1st and 2nd roll.
edit: NEVERMIND. I misread that as 4 over top 3.
edit x2: 36% is the final number, eh? Glad I didn't bother figuring it out on my own.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I forgot how the statistics work here, can you explain? I know its true I just need a review
Yeah you're both right. Top 3 combined are still much more likely.
From wiki:
1: .250
2: .215
3: .178
4: .357
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process
Black Mamba
Member
25% to nab the 1st pick. That means 75% chance to be anyone but you.
so of those 75% of the time you make the 2nd draw. But the odds changed since someone was removed from the pile.
Best case scenario is team with the 2nd best odds gone, worst case the worst. You have to run the numbers and you get a probability (and multiply by .75).
Repeat for 3rd ball, only multiply by 1- 2nd ball's probability.
Take 1 - total sum of 3. You get 36%.
edit: linsiivi posted the actual numbers when computed.
victreeb3l
Member
isnt bargnani one of their top players? i guess its a good thing hes not playing tonight. gives me some more confidence
OT, but stoudemire is a lot younger than i thought. i was surprised finding out hes only 29
Wait, the Knicks are playing the Raptors tonight? How many above .500 teams have the Knicks played this season?
That's crazy.
That's crazy.
Black Mamba
Member
having the worst record give you the best odds for the #1 Pick and nearly 2/3 chance to be in top 3.
That's pretty fair odds, IMO. Plus, you're guaranteed no worse than 4th. The only reason 4th is higher than 1st is that guarantee. If they kept drawing past the 3rd pick, the chances of being 4th would drop and 5th drops below that, etc etc.
That's pretty fair odds, IMO. Plus, you're guaranteed no worse than 4th. The only reason 4th is higher than 1st is that guarantee. If they kept drawing past the 3rd pick, the chances of being 4th would drop and 5th drops below that, etc etc.
The wiki stats for last year are wrong.
2011 Cleveland Cavaliers 19-63 (2nd-worst)[G] 227 (out of 1000) 22.70% Kyrie Irving
fake edit: Actually it's clarified in the footnotes that they combined the odds from the Clippers pick and the Cavs pick.
Pretty sure statistics don't work that way though. The pick that got #1 was the Clips pick, you can't just combine the odds and say they had a 22% chance of getting the top pick. Their best chance crapped out and they got lucky with the 8% chance pick.
Just like you can't say it's really more likely for the Bobcats to get a 'top 3' pick than they are to get #4. There is no such thing as a 'top 3' pick in the eyes of statistics. They are most likely to get #4.
2011 Cleveland Cavaliers 19-63 (2nd-worst)[G] 227 (out of 1000) 22.70% Kyrie Irving
fake edit: Actually it's clarified in the footnotes that they combined the odds from the Clippers pick and the Cavs pick.
Pretty sure statistics don't work that way though. The pick that got #1 was the Clips pick, you can't just combine the odds and say they had a 22% chance of getting the top pick. Their best chance crapped out and they got lucky with the 8% chance pick.
Just like you can't say it's really more likely for the Bobcats to get a 'top 3' pick than they are to get #4. There is no such thing as a 'top 3' pick in the eyes of statistics. They are most likely to get #4.
Rodeo Clown
All aboard! The Love train!
I don't do math.
A statistics expert can probably clarify but just because you can add the odds up doesn't mean they are correct. Once they don't get the #1 pick, their odds are 21% to get the second, and so on. There is no such thing as a 'top 3 pick.'
All Eastern conference teams that are not tanking will have super-inflated records, even more so than a normal season. They play Western conference teams only once and Eastern conference teams 3-4 times. In other words, only once against the 10 or so .500+ teams from the West while 3-4 times against the likes of Bobcats, Wizards, Nets, Pistons and Raptors.
What? The odds for top 3 picks are .250 + .215 + .178. It's such simple maths that it's not even arguable.
It does work that way. There were 1000 combinations in the lottery and the Cavs owned 22.7% of the combinations.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
A lot of times it's not like when there's one or two teams are significantly worse than everyone else. The odds could be higher than they are for the bottom 2 teams I think especially since the draft is so top-heavy (like this year, teams are going to stop drafting for elite prospects by the second pick). Then again, all teams with bottom 5 records suck so it's hard to say that one team may deserve it more than others when all of them have a very poor future.
Less than half the time the team with one of the two worst records has gotten the #1 pick.
Yeah, that sounds like a good and fair system. Fuck this league.
It's worse now with all the early entrants and such. The draft is not nearly as deep as it used to be. The lottery needs to be rethought.
Black Mamba
Member
So much wrong in this post.
First off, yes you can combine the odds. Cleveland had not 199 balls, but 227 balls because off the added Clips pick in the trade, so they had a 22.7% chance of getting the first pick, regardless of which way it came. That is the factual likelihood of them landing the #1 pick.
Second, yes you can say it's more likely to land a top 3 pick and yes it exists in statistics. In fact, it's used all the damn time in statistics.
The probability of landing a top 3 pick is roughly 65%. This is a fact.
I am a statistics expert and you are wrong.
Nah, those odds are shit.
MorisUkunRasik
Member
What happened to the idea of double first round picks for really shitty teams? That seemed interesting.
Black Mamba
Member
That means the odds are working. roughly 45% of the time, one of the 2 worst teams will get the 1st pick, or conversely, 55% of the time they won't (more than half!).
The system is working as designed even with small sample size.
If you want to argue the odds should be higher, that's another issue entirely. But the math has worked. Small sample sizes could lead to the #1 team never getting the first pick. But that hasn't even happened. Everything is working as its currently designed.
I do not support a variable probability system by year based on draft or team ratings. That is silly.
That doesn't mean we can't up the chances for bad teams. But I personally like it. 25% sounds fair and doesn't give incentives to tank a lot IMO.
They have to be kept separate because the Clippers balls are removed once they hit the #1 pick so I don't see how you can say they are combined (except when talking about the possibility of getting the #1 pick.)
If the system is working as intended then the system sucks.
MWP/Ebanks for Rubio.
Black Mamba
Member
because you're only looking at the 1st pick and 1st pick alone.
The probabilities of landing the #1 pick, #2 pick, and #3 pick are different with the Clippers pick. The probability of landing the 4th pick, however, is completely unchanged.
Once the clippers pick is drawn #1, all the probabilities change going forward. But that's true every time a pick is drawn, anyway. But we're looking at it PRE-DRAWING not as its happening.
going into the 1st draw, the Cavs had a 22.7% chance of landing the 1st pick. Period.
edit: for example, a team with only their own balls and worst record has 25% chance to pick #1. If the best non-playoff team wins the #1 pick, the team's chances to win the #2 pick is barely changed (slightly above 25%). if however, the 2nd worst team gets the #1 pick, you have 31% chance of landing the #2 pick at that moment. But your actual chance of landing the #2 pick before the lottery is 21%.
MSG Lin promo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BYePYQDrtc&feature=player_embedded
One thing Dolan has done right is hire whoever it is that does the Knicks promos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BYePYQDrtc&feature=player_embedded
One thing Dolan has done right is hire whoever it is that does the Knicks promos.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I meant that there usually is a lot of separation between the worst team and sometimes worst two and everyone else outside of like 2007 where every single team in the league that couldn't make the playoffs was tanking for Oden. I think there's an argument to be made that the bottom two teams don't get high enough odds because they're much worse than the others.
Then again, teams with the two worst records a lot of times don't have worse roster than the other bottom 5 teams, just bad luck for that year (like the Nets being unbelievably bad in 2010, but a lot of that having to do with injuries, not lesser talent)
Yeah I see that now. Thanks for clarifying.
Black Mamba
Member
I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying I'm fine with the probabilities as set. Can a case be argued to increase the bottom 2 or 3 teams? Sure.
But the higher the probabilities, the higher the incentive to tank, too. Have to counterbalance that. I simply like a 25-20-15 breakdown for the top 3, roughly speaking. 30-23-18 future perhaps? I'd be fine with it.
But it's got to be the same odds every year.
edit: The other thing you can do is only allow lottery for the bottom 5 in each conference.
Bargnani is their best player. I haven't seen much of Calderon but I think he's alright too. They gave the Lakers a run the other day so you never know.
All the talk of STAT's knees and injuries makes him sound older than he actually is. He's almost a full year younger than Wade.
MSG is great with their promos.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Fantastic ad and the song is perfection.
He's also had a lot more serious injuries than just about any player in the league outside of Oden.
His ability to recover is brilliant, but he's no longer in PHX.
And calling Brags any teams best player is just a bad statement. I mean in general, you're probably right, but it's not good for raps fans.
Gully State
Member
Udoh was damn impressive last night. I like how he denied Monta the ball and hit the dagger to ice the game.
Speaking of flops, my favorite...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=MTdERYOtqsg#t=21s
He even makes Okur help him up after it..
Bargs is easily our best player, and he's actually played pretty well, but he's been hurt for most of the year (mostly because Casey gave him crazy minutes and he wore down), and Jose sucks. Don't be fooled because he matched up with Fisher.
Anyway, we usually get eaten up by STAT, so he couldn't have picked a better team to make his return against.
Syphon Filter
Member
its time my brothers and sisters!
I like that because it was such a smart play. Everyone knew that Monta was getting the ball, except Udoh who ended up with a ton of space because he held the ball. It was so un-Warrior like.
Looking forward to see how quickly Amare shakes off the rust. Let's go knicks-age.
duki
so hot right now
duki
duki
so hot right now
duki
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