RUMOR: 7-inch iPad on track for October 2012 release, $200 to $250 price
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Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
It's still roughly a factor of 2 difference in price if Google and Asus manage to get to the $150 price point. There's a psychological barrier to justifying spending twice as much money than what a rival company wants. Android and Google are pretty established entities at this point, so if it was only a $50 difference than I could see Apple taking their cake but a $100+ is just too much. If the mini-iPad is $300 and the Nexus is $150, then I think it's a safe bet that the prospective 7 inch iPad customers will be current iOS users.
Also Amazon and B&N are basically selling their tablets as a way to sell you more books and movies. So I'd imagine copyright restrictions make it useless to sell their tablets in certain other countries. Which is stupid but still, the door is open for both Apple and Google in those countries.
1. The $500 iPad outsells the $200 Kindle Fire.
2. ????
3. The $300 iPad will not outsell the $150 Google tablet.
How does that work?
evilromero
Member
Not sure how I feel about a smaller iPad. Of course I wasn't sold on the regular iPad until the useful apps came out.
So your view is that no one with Fire or Nook wants a full-on tablet ... and that there are no people that haven't bought a tablet that would like a cheaper iPad?
So essentially the current iPad line has entirely filled demand? Uh huh
Let's assume you're right. So then it comes down to Android having a markedly inferior ecosystem, and an OS and core apps that aren't remotely as stable. Awesome.
lol
Explain the sales history of iPad's versus ~10" Android tablets?
WTF? Where's the 2x price difference? And again, explain historical and current tablet sales?
So the only people that have bought a current iPad already had iPhone or a previous iPad? Seems like an interesting chicken/egg that doesn't explain the sales that have occurred.
Either that's complete bullshit, or it's right and that means that non iOS users are simply not buying tablets at all ... which makes it entirely moot.
I don't mean to sound like a dick here, but the level of denial and cognitive dissonance you're expressing is pretty amazing.
Have you been to an Apple Store and seen how the display iPads are loaded with the most popular apps for people to try? Go into an Apple Store and just watch people playing with the apps. Even when I went to the Foxconn factory, people were all playing games on the iPads at the Apple retailer there.
Then go to a Best Buy and look at how the Android tablets are set up for display. You usually can play with the browser and YouTube. Look at the engagement level of people playing with the tablets.
I'm not even evangelizing, I just don't agree with the logic.It pains me that I'm essentially tag teaming with numble as iPad evangelists
More expensive, 10" iPads were more appealing than cheaper 7 or 10" Android tablets.
Therefore, a cheaper 7" iPad will be less appealing compared to even cheaper 7" Android tablets.
Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
The $500 iPad is not the same screen size as the Kindle or similarly specced or anything. Even the most superficial glance at each product would tell a customer that they're very different and worth spending different amounts. Plus the $500 iPad is similarly priced to other competing tablets in that size range.
Now you take a 7 inch iPad and a 7 inch Nexus tablet, I don't see new customers finding many differences in the actual software/specs. The only main difference that you can notice is that one of them is a hell of a lot cheaper.
The tablet market is mostly the iPad. A new version every year will sell to people who want the upgrade in specs but a 7 inch iPad has to be able to offer some advantage. Which it would as far as portability obviously.
However, I believe that if somebody wanted a cheaper tablet, they would have bought one of the several tablets you can buy for $200-$300. I could be totally wrong about that and everybody was just waiting for Apple to enter that price range but the very sudden sales (and the sudden drop off) of Kindle sales makes me think I'm not wrong. Those customers may be getting saturated already.
I'm guessing, but have no idea, that the current iPad and Nooks and Fires kind of satisfy the current market pretty well as far as price and functionality.
I wouldn't call the current iteration of Android unstable. Just that as far as tablet apps are concerned, it's definitely lagging behind iOS.
But yes, apps are definitely something that objective nerds will see as a disadvantage for Android tablets. That's not something you will find without a little bit of research though.
lololol
The current iPad actually has a competitive price point plus of course massively better brand awareness being that it had a head start (or actually created) the market and it is being made by the biggest mobile device manufacturer.
If this iPad is really $300 (as I think it would most likely be) and is going against an official Google tablet at half the price, then that's a completely new game with new rules.
Well here's an article saying the price may be $150. Note that it does mention that they may drop the Tegra 3 in favor of the Qualcomm (possibly S4?) processor. The S4 is only a dual-core CPU but neck-and-neck or even better than the Tegra 3 in most benchmarks, so that wouldn't be a trade-off in performance, assuming it really is the S4 and not the S3.
http://www.androidauthority.com/rum...l-core-processor-will-be-priced-at-149-64164/
No, I think when the iPad came out, it gave tablet computers a whole new niche that greatly expanded their accessibility. That's why people who may or may not have had iOS devices would buy it.
But a 7 inch iPad being released now would be competing against a cheaper, smaller iPod Touch and a bigger, more expensive 10 inch iPad.
It is the goldilocks size. There is a market for that but it will offer the same software experience as the current iPad but with a more portable form factor and more affordable price. But if it is not even in the same ballpark as the other 7 inch tablets in price, then I just don't see it competing.
It definitely allows Apple to sell another product to the millions and millions of people who already use iOS. But I don't see such an iPad crushing the competition as some speculate.
Oh I see. My argument is that I don't think that a 7 inch iPad will be more popular or even as popular as the current 10 inch iPad, despite being $200 cheaper.
It's because sacrificing that much in in screen (tbf it's really 7.85" vs 9.7") would make a very real difference in usability.
Now, Android seems to be doing far better in the 7 inch tablet range than the 10 inch range. That could be due to the lack of Apple presence or it could be just due to the price.
If there's an equally priced iPad, then I don't see the similar Android outselling it.
Was a joke. I can hardly be called an apple fan. As with you though, I just can't sit by and watch such disregard of sanity
No, the app disparity is apparent (and even over-exaggerated in favor of Apple) when you look at how they are displayed at retail.
The tablet market is expanding, not contracting. The "bad" Kindle Fire sales were corrected by NPD--there wasn't as sudden of a drop-off as IDC had thought. And looking at Kindle Fire sales in a holiday quarter, and comparing it with the next quarter, is misleading, particular when it is a US-only product and cannot get into China's holiday quarter.
How is it completely new game with new rules? Apple still will have the benefit of retail stores, brand awareness, and an ecosystem that is truly global. The second biggest App Store market is China, which happens to be the second biggest iPad market. Google Play isn't even available in China.
Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
Yeah, those things will help Apple of course.
But they won't change the fact that it's (most likely according to rumors blahblahblah) going to be twice as much as what would be considered the competitors flagship product. A tablet that is the same size, good specs, and going to be given the most up to date version of Android available. At the end of the day, it will have a worse tablet ecosystem unless app developers massively change their focus on Android's tablet scene but the price is more of a barrier than tablet-customized apps I think.
Google wants Android to take over tablets just to increase the usage of Google search. They're not after any profits on the actual hardware. They just want to make advertisement monies. Apple is in the tablet market mainly to make profit on the hardware sales (app store makes money too but it's not their bread & butter). They are going after different price segments for different reasons.
That's why I think it makes sense to say that, even if they're both basically the same screen size, they're not after the same market. I could be totally wrong, this is just my own personal speculation in the hopes that I get to tell everybody that I called it if it turns out that I'm right.
You seem to put your trust in rumors too much, and manufacture extra speculation on top of them.
Rumor: iPad 3 will have a screen better than some HDTVs.
You: That must mean iPad 3 is not going to be 2048x1536.
Rumors: 7" iPad for $200-$250, 7" Google tablet for $150-$200.
You: Consumers are going to buy the Google tablet since the Apple tablet will be 2x the price.
How would you know you were right? Any one Apple product will outsell a Nexus product simply based on retail advantage locally and globally, before we even get into price or spec comparisons.
There are millions of people that would like a tablet but cannot afford/justify $4-500 for an iPad. But they also do not want to buy a fire as they aren't prime customers (or are one of the billions that don't liv in the US), and have likewise dismissed android tablets as they have no consistent message to consumers, they are fragmented beyond belief.
iOS is clearly the leader in mindshare.
You introduce an iPad at a lower price point - even with a smaller screen - you will open it up to a much wider audience. It'd be a Wii type product. You aren't cannibalising iPad sales, nor are you competing with android (sales figures for non-fire are shit). You are expanding the market. Plus you are brining new people into ios who may later on upgrade to a larger iPad, or iphone. Get them in your ecosystem and create stickiness
iOS is clearly the leader in mindshare.
You introduce an iPad at a lower price point - even with a smaller screen - you will open it up to a much wider audience. It'd be a Wii type product. You aren't cannibalising iPad sales, nor are you competing with android (sales figures for non-fire are shit). You are expanding the market. Plus you are brining new people into ios who may later on upgrade to a larger iPad, or iphone. Get them in your ecosystem and create stickiness
Yeah a smaller iPad would do very well. The average consumer wants an iPad, not just any tablet. The smaller size is better for public transit commuters. I almost dropped my transformer while trying to read on the train,and I have big hands. An iPad the size of a Fire would be great.
I don't think this is a good idea unless Apple has developed a way to accurately scale an application's resolution (i.e. not just magnifying pixels) up or down for different screen sizes at the OS level so developers don't have to rewrite their applications.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but if it's 1024x768 what's the problem?
Yeah. I dismissed this rumour yesterday but the more I think about it, the more strategic sense it makes.
If the UI doesn't have the ability to scale up it will just scale down with the screen, so the size of onscreen elements will be reduced:
eg,
10-inch iPad:
7-inch iPad:
Still failing to see much of an issue.
Goldrusher
Member
Am I really the only one who wants a bigger one ?
14 inch.
The size of a magazine. The size of a schoolbook. The size of a manual.
A4 size. International standard letter format.
14 inch.
The size of a magazine. The size of a schoolbook. The size of a manual.
A4 size. International standard letter format.
That's what she said
7" won't work, but 7.85" will.
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/03/27/why-a-7-85-screen-for-the-rumored-ipad-mini-makes-sense/
At a 7.85" 4:3 screen (with those large bezels to match), I honestly don't see the point. It's more comparable to an 8.9" Android tablet than a 7" one and wouldn't be that much more portable than the 9.7" iPad. I'd much rather see Apple focus on creating a portable tablet and what would be best for such a device than take shortcuts with a 7.85" screen because it scales nicely with some old iPad apps.
Really?
The weight difference itself would make it more portable.
Oh yeah the weight difference would be noticeable (the weight even makes a huge difference between similar sized products like the Kindle DX and the iPad) but the width difference might be enough to prevent it fitting in pockets and being held comfortably in one hand.
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
It would be a 7.85 inch tablet. Why would you ever think it would fit in a pocket? The slightly smaller Kindle Fire isn't pocketable either. That's what smartphones/iPod Touches are for.
Oppo
Member
I still say, no way will Apple ship a 7" tablet.
If you follow how they design things, you know they ruled it out when they designed the first iPad.
the current size is extremely close to a 8x11" piece of paper.
which means it fits everywhere that standard sized paper binders and notebooks fit. I.e. all the briefcases, backpacks and folios of the world.
7" gains a small bit of space and loses a lot of screen real estate.
it will never happen. it's just wishful feature-chasing. not how they do things.
If you follow how they design things, you know they ruled it out when they designed the first iPad.
the current size is extremely close to a 8x11" piece of paper.
which means it fits everywhere that standard sized paper binders and notebooks fit. I.e. all the briefcases, backpacks and folios of the world.
7" gains a small bit of space and loses a lot of screen real estate.
it will never happen. it's just wishful feature-chasing. not how they do things.
The Kindle Fire is pocketable and I think you're underestimating how much larger the 4:3 aspect ratio will make the device feel even if there isn't really that much difference in the measurements:
This statement very clearly illustrates why you're resulting in some faulty conclusions imo.
It assumes that the current iPad is essentially only selling to prior owners. That is an inherently faulty premise. If you look at yearly and generational sales, it's clear iPad is increasing in penetration ... dramatically. It's an expanding market.
I believe you're wrong. Kindle didn't actually have quite the drop off that was originally stated. Regardless, people know a Kindle or Nook isn't the same thing as an iPad/Android tablet, yet have shown relatively little interesting in full-scale Android offerings regardless of cost. All the while iPad continues to increase in sales. I don't see how this situation as a whole necessarily implies there's no market for a lower priced iPad? If anything, I think the natural implication is the opposite.
And here's your other problem. In this case you aren't even going by (faulty) information, you're completely guessing. I'd ask what you're basing this presumption on, but since you state you have no idea I guess that answers it. Again though, actual sales information in the sector would, if anything, point one to the opposite conclusion.
I certainly would ... and that's because I actually own one (technically 2 with ICS if you include my TouchPad, though obviously that's not an official release). Is this a case of you basing it off of Android phones ... or are you simply guessing again?
Yet you continue to state that doesn't matter, and I have to ask why is that? What info are you basing that on? Certainly not sales data ... conventional wisdom ... or really anything I've ever seen.
I strongly disagree. If you were to ask J6P what makes iPad (really iOS in general) better ... one of the top things listed will be app availability AND quality. So much so, I'd expect that even if we eventually get to a point where a competitor has parity ... that knowledge will lag in the conventional wisdom. It's easily one of Apple's biggest strengths - mindshare.
But let's say you're right. People have no idea what's up with apps. How do you then explain iPad's marketshare and ever increasing userbase? Whatever the reason is, it's clear that people have a preference ... and they've stated it with their pocketbooks.
lolololol
Why would the rules automatically be different? There are Android tablets that have a similar price delta, and they are selling like shit relative to iPad.
Moreover, I find the entire pricing comparison a bit disengenous. The only comparison you've made is taking the lowest rumored price for the Google tablet ... and comparing it to the highest rumored price for the iPad. We have no confirmation of either. Automatically assuming the best versus worst is a bit silly (or worse, smells of agenda).
Actually let me take that back. Your comparison is really worse than that. You aren't even taking the highest rumored price for the iPad. You're using pricing that people on gaf have speculated on. It's not even part of any rumor, reputable or not.
See the above regarding pricing.
As far as the Tegra 3 vs S4 comparison though ... we've got some problems here. First off, some would argue that people generally don't care about specs, at least to a certain extent. It's mostly about general performance and ecosystem ... and iPad wins there.
But fine let's talk tech. Unless the CPU is garbage, the long-pole for tablets is more often GPU than CPU. iOS in particular is heavily GPU accelerated for UI visual elements (hence its performance), and beyond UI's in general, obviously stuff like games, etc are very GPU dependent. Unfortunately S4 doesn't stack up all that well versus Tegra 3 there.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5563/qualcomms-snapdragon-s4-krait-vs-nvidias-tegra-3/2
Worse still for your case, Tegra 3 falls behind Apple's A5.
I've never stated it would 'crush' the competition at $300 - mainly because I don't even know what 'crushing' implies. It's a ridiculously vague term.
My point however is you seem to be disregarding the 10" iPad sales versus cheaper 10" Android alternatives. People have demonstrated they are willing to pay for the better HW and ecosystem.
Why are you assuming that would automatically not be the case for a smaller sized model? (and of course you are continuing to disregard any potential for pent up demand for an iPad regardless of size - as long as it's cheaper than the current models). It's like every assumption you've made regardless metric or criteria has been negative towards iPad and positive towards non-iPads. It's not wonder your 'conclusion' is it will fail.
Are you wearing skinny jeans or tight shorts? It fits fine in my regular jeans and shorts... *shrug* either way a 7.85" 4:3 iPad would most likely be too wide to fit. Personally I'd like to see Apple use something similar to that 5.7" 1024x768 Mirasol display.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
if you could use that as a phone that would be good.
200 bucks isn't that much... i might even get one. 400/500 bucks is too much for an ipad for me at the moment.
200 bucks isn't that much... i might even get one. 400/500 bucks is too much for an ipad for me at the moment.
Straight leg jeans and chino shorts. Can you take a pic of the fire in your shorts and jeans? Especially with you sitting down.
I don't own a fire but I have a galaxy tab 7.7 and it fits in my jeans even while I'm sitting down. I've also previously owned a playbook which fit in my jeans.
br0ken_shad0w
Member
As much as I want an ipad, I'm not buying it if it's going to be the red-headed stepchild like the ipod touch line.
I'd like to see photos of that.
It's not about fitting, it's about comfort for me. Having some heavy slab in my pocket that makes my pants tight isn't "pocketable" for me.
The iPod touch is still better than all the similar devices out there—it's certainly better than Sony's android walkmans and Samsung's android players. There is clearly a difference in performance between the iPhone and the iPod touch but at the price it's great value.
Well thanks for moving the goalposts. I never said it was perfectly comfortable or the same as slipping an HP Veer or even iPhone in your pocket. It can be fit though that was my only point and I'm much more likely to take along a device that can fit in my pocket in a pinch than one that doesn't.
…lol. Come on. Pocketable doesn't strictly mean "fit" to me. I can fit many large and heavy things in my pocket but I don't consider them pocketable and wouldn't want to put them in my pocket.
So about those photos?
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
Greyface: We must have very different definitions of "pocketable" as mine not only includes being able to easily put the device in your pocket, but ask comfortably keep it there for extended periods of time. The iPhone and other smartphones, even larger ones, are fine, a 7+ inch tablet, for me personally, isn't even close and that includes the Fire.
For the record, I wear standard jeans and shorts. Nothing special. I can't even begin to imagine putting a 7 inch tablet in my pockets.
For the record, I wear standard jeans and shorts. Nothing special. I can't even begin to imagine putting a 7 inch tablet in my pockets.
the_painted_bird
Member
Pics
Well my galaxy tab 7.7 goes in my pocket. it's not the best or easiest fit but it's comfortable enough for daily use. It's a much easier fit in back pockets and jacket pockets but you get the picture:
That's fine. Just realize that the corollary is you will be called out if/when it turns out being wrong.
iPad's visual elements are large enough that dropping a few inches isn't going to matter for most people.
Judging by the diagram above, the difference between it and a Fire is small enough that it should have similar use-cases. It's not like people are typically placing a Fire in their pants pockets to begin with.
Without looking at the actual measurements, I can see why viewing the diagram could make the delta seem larger. When things are only being shown in relative terms, we tend to subconsciously assume the base unit is rather large Remember these aren't HDTV's though, they're relatively small devices. So while the difference between a 10" and the smaller units can present different usage patterns, between the baby iPad and a Kindle Fire we're talking about a 0.75" width difference . That's not enough to change usage patterns in the vast majority of situations.
I disagree on a few counts.
First off there is enough of a size difference that the use-case actually does end up different in real-world usage. I've seen people carry Kind Fires and the like in jacket pockets, purses, etc. Similarly, people are more apt to one-hand it. While obviously there's tons of overlap, it does serve some different usage patterns.
Second, MacOS and iOS's revenue streams are weighted differently. MacOS products have a higher per-unit margin. In the case of iOS, a larger relative chunk of revenue comes from software and services. With that in mind, marketshare is much more important to them.
Oppo
Member
you'd be really surprised. fingers don't scale. the gap between 3.5" and 9" is a big change for the size of hit targets. an in-between rez would give devs (like me) conniptions over yet another size/aspect target.
I agree on the usage patterns, but disagree on your conclusion, in that I feel that people are by and large happy to default down to phone size in many of these instances. Apple has a giant chunk of the tabket market share already, and the mindshare as well. eReaders seem to be the exception (paperback size, less "precious", lighter).
Obviously I haven't used every piece of software out there so I'll certainly concede I'm no authority. In my own anecdotal usage though, I haven't run into any serious issues. I have a Nook and threw Android on it. Haven't really had problems with hit targets in the majority of situations versus my Transformer, etc.
In the quotes post, I wasn't arguing whether there was a huge market or not for this product based on size. I was arguing about usage patterns for people that already do own a smaller tablet since he was arguing the size difference changes little in terms of form-factor.
If you check out my posts throughout this thread, it shows my main argument for sales potential being mostly about price - not size. If anything, I've argued that size likely isn't the long pole. It's more about people wanting a (cheaper) iPad regardless of size.
Or am I misunderstanding what you're getting at?
Oppo
Member
Of course. Those tablets have UIs designed for their size.
I was speaking more of the actual necessity to accomodate yet another iOS screen target.
The jump between the 3:2 aspect phone at 3.5" and the 4:3 aspect tablet at 9" is basically the difference between a totally-mobile screen and a pseudo-laptop screen. When I'm doing responsive site designs I often can leave the iPad as-is since it has such a high rez, and I can expect users to be able to hit most links with their fingers. 7" becomes this odd no-man's-land where you can fit a few] more buttons, but can't see a whole lot more. It's the opposite of the "goldilocks zone", IMO.
Ah, I think the misunderstanding is mine. I am arguing chiefly from the size aspect.
When the iPad first appeared, people expected it to be $800-$1k. You'll recall the surprise at the actual price.
The fact that they still sell discounted iPad 2s is, I think, the answer. Apple will leave the last model in play and that is as low as they are willing to go (or compete in). I really do think it is as simple as that. iPod Touch, $200. Used iPad, $300ish. Old model new iPad, $400. And so on. They don't care about that little $300 gap. In fact I think they are happy to let Asus and the others take that space. Makes them look more "premium".
I see what you are getting at, but I just don't think they care enough to confuse the market and the dev situation with yet another model, for the sake of that small gap.
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