PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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PantherLotus said:
Hey quick question to the Obama is doomed crowd (PD): which swing states are you guessing will go to Romney that will cost Obama reelection? A quick glance at 538 has him at 290ish.
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Ohio: Its local economy is improving but Obama's problem with blue collar white voters continue

NC: Might as well hand it to Romney right now, not much to discuss

Virginia: Polls show Obama with a lead, but continued economic stagnation could easily move the state to Romney

Nevada: One of the states worst hit by the horrible economy

Florida: Voter purge. A potential Iran/Israel escalation could especially be felt here

The map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=nvE


I think Nevada and Virginia are the most likely of those to go to Obama. Nevada's economy certainly sucks, but the local GOP has really fucked up, they have no ground game, and democrats control so much of the basis GOTV infrastructure. Virginia's demographic changes benefit Obama, and the state's economy is solid.

I'm not sold on Obama winning Ohio. It's being flooded with money, and while Obama's ground game is very impressive there, it's a state dominated by the type of voters most disappointed by Obama. Romney may not appeal to them, but they've had four years of Obama and it hasn't worked. I think they'll make a change
 
PhoenixDark said:
Ohio: Its local economy is improving but Obama's problem with blue collar white voters continue

NC: Might as well hand it to Romney right now, not much to discuss

Virginia: Polls show Obama with a lead, but continued economic stagnation could easily move the state to Romney

Nevada: One of the states worst hit by the horrible economy

Florida: Voter purge. A potential Iran/Israel escalation could especially be felt here

The map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=nvE


I think Nevada and Virginia are the most likely of those to go to Obama. Nevada's economy certainly sucks, but the local GOP has really fucked up, they have no ground game, and democrats control so much of the basis GOTV infrastructure. Virginia's demographic changes benefit Obama, and the state's economy is solid.

I'm not sold on Obama winning Ohio. It's being flooded with money, and while Obama's ground game is very impressive there, it's a state dominated by the type of voters most disappointed by Obama. Romney may not appeal to them, but they've had four years of Obama and it hasn't worked. I think they'll make a change
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Wow, it just hit me how tough it'll be for Romney. He could win all those other states, including Ohio, but if Obama manages to keep Virginia he keeps the presidency. I think Romney could pull it off though. Maybe around a 40% chance. If the economy doesn't improve then that goes up dramatically.

The comedy option: Obama keeps Virginia, but Romney wins Wisconsin. Tied electoral college.
 
Clevinger said:
Wow, it just hit me how tough it'll be for Romney. He could win all those other states, including Ohio, but if Obama manages to keep Virginia he keeps the presidency. I think Romney could pull it off though. Maybe around a 40% chance. If the economy doesn't improve then that goes up dramatically.

The comedy option: Obama keeps Virginia, but Romney wins Wisconsin. Tied electoral college.
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Romney has at most a 20% chance, in my opinion. At most.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Ohio: Its local economy is improving but Obama's problem with blue collar white voters continue

NC: Might as well hand it to Romney right now, not much to discuss

Virginia: Polls show Obama with a lead, but continued economic stagnation could easily move the state to Romney

Nevada: One of the states worst hit by the horrible economy

Florida: Voter purge. A potential Iran/Israel escalation could especially be felt here

The map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=nvE


I think Nevada and Virginia are the most likely of those to go to Obama. Nevada's economy certainly sucks, but the local GOP has really fucked up, they have no ground game, and democrats control so much of the basis GOTV infrastructure. Virginia's demographic changes benefit Obama, and the state's economy is solid.

I'm not sold on Obama winning Ohio. It's being flooded with money, and while Obama's ground game is very impressive there, it's a state dominated by the type of voters most disappointed by Obama. Romney may not appeal to them, but they've had four years of Obama and it hasn't worked. I think they'll make a change
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bahahahahah

oh god you're killing me man
 
Kosmo said:
Interesting perspective on Obama's stance that he can simply not enforce the deportation of illegals:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...PltV_story.html?wprss=rss_charles-krauthammer

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/303038/executive-overreach-john-yoo#



Thoughts on how, legally, this would differ from what Obama is doing with immigration?
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One thing you have to keep in mind is that you are talking about taxes here. Any taxes that people refuse to pay but are still on the books for will accumulate interest and penalties. What is to stop a Democratic president from reversing Romney's decision later and collecting these back taxes? Do people really want to take a gamble on that? This is why ruling by fiat is bad. It doesn't allow the smooth transition from one administration to another. It comes down to what you think you can get away with. I'm sure Romney doesn't really care one way or another about illegal children having a path to citizenship. He has to act like he does because his base is crazy about them anchor babies and all that. So he is less likely to reverse Obama's decision which mirror's Rubio's plan anyway. But I think there would be more objections to tax dodgers than to immigrant children.

This is also why the debt ceiling solutions are dangerous. If Obama unilaterally removes the limit and prints more Treasuries, then what price are people going to buy those at? Because those Treasuries will be completely different from the ones that came before. Maybe the Fed could buy them with the platinum coin option, but the market will still lose faith in our government and its debt.
Clevinger said:
Wow, it just hit me how tough it'll be for Romney. He could win all those other states, including Ohio, but if Obama manages to keep Virginia he keeps the presidency. I think Romney could pull it off though. Maybe around a 40% chance. If the economy doesn't improve then that goes up dramatically.

The comedy option: Obama keeps Virginia, but Romney wins Wisconsin. Tied electoral college.
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No way it ties if Obama takes Omaha, NE and its two electoral votes.
 
ToxicAdam said:
I was doing males only, because that was the hypothetical we were using.
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Speaking of bad math. The odds don't really change that much if you remove half the population. You don't suddenly get to divide 48,000 by the same number.

Women do get cancer at a higher rate than men but if you disregard them, and to what end I imagine you can't say, your odds only improve from 1 in 176 to around 1 in 200.

So, uh, thumbs up on that one.
 
Romney Campaign Co-Chair: Romney Would ‘Rescind’ Obama Immigration Directive

A week ago, Obama announced that the Department of Homeland Security was halting deportations for up to 1.4 million young undocumented immigrants. Since that time, Mitt Romney has been repeatedly asked whether, if elected, he would undo Obama’s directive or leave it in place. Romney has steadfastly refused to answer.

But Ray Walser, a co-chair of Mitt Romney’s campaign for issues pertaining to Latin America, finally spilled the beans:

…Mr Walser, told The Daily Telegraph: “My anticipation is that he would probably rescind this directive were he to be elected in November.”

Mr Walser, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation and veteran US diplomat, said such a decision would be in line with the “very tough” stance taken on illegal migration by Mr Romney so far.

After Walser’s comments to The Daily Telegraph, the reporter followed up with the Romney campaign. It refused to repond to his inquiry. But Walser got back in touch with the reporter and begged not to be quoted: “I’ve now had a little conversation with people from the campaign and they are concerned… They would really prefer that if you’re going to quote the Romney position, you get it from someone other than me.”
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http://thinkprogress.org/election/2...ney-would-recind-obama-immigration-directive/

Whoops. This is why actually taking a stand>leaving things ambiguous. Now the Romney camp has to come out and deny this guy while also pointing out Romney hasn't said what he'd actually do about Obama's decree. I can't wait until the debates, just to see Obama press him on this. Lord knows the media is unable, and Romney is quite good at avoiding questions. Good luck with that in front of millions of viewers
 
PhoenixDark said:
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2...ney-would-recind-obama-immigration-directive/

Whoops. This is why actually taking a stand>leaving things ambiguous. Now the Romney camp has to come out and deny this guy while also pointing out Romney hasn't said what he'd actually do about Obama's decree. I can't wait until the debates, just to see Obama press him on this. Lord knows the media is unable, and Romney is quite good at avoiding questions. Good luck with that in front of millions of viewers
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It will be interesting to see how much dancing the guy can do before being pinned down to take hard line stances on everything from immigration to taxation to the economy to the military.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Ohio: Its local economy is improving but Obama's problem with blue collar white voters continue

NC: Might as well hand it to Romney right now, not much to discuss

Virginia: Polls show Obama with a lead, but continued economic stagnation could easily move the state to Romney

Nevada: One of the states worst hit by the horrible economy

Florida: Voter purge. A potential Iran/Israel escalation could especially be felt here

The map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=nvE


I think Nevada and Virginia are the most likely of those to go to Obama. Nevada's economy certainly sucks, but the local GOP has really fucked up, they have no ground game, and democrats control so much of the basis GOTV infrastructure. Virginia's demographic changes benefit Obama, and the state's economy is solid.

I'm not sold on Obama winning Ohio. It's being flooded with money, and while Obama's ground game is very impressive there, it's a state dominated by the type of voters most disappointed by Obama. Romney may not appeal to them, but they've had four years of Obama and it hasn't worked. I think they'll make a change
Click to expand...

Thanks for answering. You put your money where your mouth is, which is difficult considering the hoops you're jumping through to make this realistic. 266 v 272? That's with unlimited campaign financing and Citizen's United in favor of Romney, a stagnating economy, a terrible Supreme Court ruling against the AHCA, and at least one other surprise which I'm guessing is already factored into the electoral marketplace?

This tells me that Romney, a man prone to gaffes and having a hard time connecting with people, has zero room for error. I'm not saying your scenario won't happen, but I'm saying your scenario won't happen without something we don't about yet having a huge impact.

Someone else said it, but this is awfully illuminating. 538 was showing OH, VA, and PA as the most electorally significant swing states, and I'm pretty sure Romney needs 2/3 to win.

And while I say Romney has to be perfect to win, I think one or two big things going in Obama's favor (say, some good job numbers in August/September, the Euro settling down, a big new Jobs program, an executive order fix to the next debt ceiling, October Surprise) could turn this into a bloodbath.

Hell, we don't even know who Romney's VP pick is yet, and we all know the best case scenario is zero gain. Anybody he picks will be a drag on his campaign, unless he's been talking with Bill Clinton and the former pres really hates Obama.

I dunno. I appreciate your effort since you've been the one consistently suggesting that Obama's doomed. I suspect you're preparing yourself for tragedy, just in case, when the writing is pretty damn near all over the wall.
 
Plinko said:
Wow. I can't imagine someone more off-putting to invite to be VP than Paul Ryan. Just by looking at him you can tell he's trying to sell you snake oil.
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A lot of people are being vetted, doesn't mean they'll be chosen. Obama vetted Hillary despite everyone knowing it wasn't gonna happen.
 
PhoenixDark said:
A lot of people are being vetted, doesn't mean they'll be chosen. Obama vetted Hillary despite everyone knowing it wasn't gonna happen.
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That was also potentially a part of becoming the SoS, I bet. Also:

paul-ryan.jpg


I mean, the only thing better than Romney's cartoon-villain persona and presentation would be fucking count chocula here. Man oh man I cannot WAIT for Obama to hang Ryan around Romney's neck. When regular people hear about what he wants to do social security, medicare, and ... everything else... LOL. 320+ for Obama. Heard it here first.
 
PantherLotus said:
Thanks for answering. You put your money where your mouth is, which is difficult considering the hoops you're jumping through to make this realistic. 266 v 272? That's with unlimited campaign financing and Citizen's United in favor of Romney, a stagnating economy, a terrible Supreme Court ruling against the AHCA, and at least one other surprise which I'm guessing is already factored into the electoral marketplace?

This tells me that Romney, a man prone to gaffes and having a hard time connecting with people, has zero room for error. I'm not saying your scenario won't happen, but I'm saying your scenario won't happen without something we don't about yet having a huge impact.

Someone else said it, but this is awfully illuminating. 538 was showing OH, VA, and PA as the most electorally significant swing states, and I'm pretty sure Romney needs 2/3 to win.

And while I say Romney has to be perfect to win, I think one or two big things going in Obama's favor (say, some good job numbers in August/September, the Euro settling down, a big new Jobs program, an executive order fix to the next debt ceiling, October Surprise) could turn this into a bloodbath.

Hell, we don't even know who Romney's VP pick is yet, and we all know the best case scenario is zero gain. Anybody he picks will be a drag on his campaign, unless he's been talking with Bill Clinton and the former pres really hates Obama.

I dunno. I appreciate your effort since you've been the one consistently suggesting that Obama's doomed. I suspect you're preparing yourself for tragedy, just in case, when the writing is pretty damn near all over the wall.
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If 538 lists PA as a swing state it can now be tossed in the joke category as its been officially infected by its MSM buyout
 
Does anyone run a poll on the capaign issues themselves? Like leaving the parties out of it, would you vote for party x with these policies 1 2 3 4 5 etc?
 
gcubed said:
If 538 lists PA as a swing state it can now be tossed in the joke category as its been officially infected by its MSM buyout
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He lists it as Likely Obama with a 80% chance of winning it and a +5.2 projected vote share.
 
PantherLotus said:
That was also potentially a part of becoming the SoS, I bet. Also:

paul-ryan.jpg


I mean, the only thing better than Romney's cartoon-villain persona and presentation would be fucking count chocula here. Man oh man I cannot WAIT for Obama to hang Ryan around Romney's neck. When regular people hear about what he wants to do social security, medicare, and ... everything else... LOL. 320+ for Obama. Heard it here first.
Click to expand...

SoS, eh? Ultimately I think Eznark is right: why should Ryan leave his castle for anything less than the presidency. He'll likely be the most influential republican in congress, and could be an heir apparent depending on who the VP is; I doubt Pawlenty will inspire much in anyone as VP, for instance.
 
PhoenixDark said:
SoS, eh? Ultimately I think Eznark is right: why should Ryan leave his castle for anything less than the presidency. He'll likely be the most influential republican in congress, and could be an heir apparent depending on who the VP is; I doubt Pawlenty will inspire much in anyone as VP, for instance.
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Great point. That leaves a Pawlenty, who couldn't lead a PTA meeting, and...uh...
 
No problem. Easy mistake, since I included it with two swing states. It's just that those two are the only chance Romney has to win.
 
How is it that we provide tax incentives for businesses to actually ship jobs overseas?

Is there any logical rationale for that?
 
So, remember when I said media coverage of King Obunga's Executive Privilege won't last more than 1.5 days, and folks argued that it will be a full week? I do.
 
Bet Poligaf a million Mittbux that Mittens will take the "tough luck, politics is too hard!" portion out of context in an ad some how.
 
It's a token gesture, I doubt Ryan would attach himself to the campaign of a Massachusetts part-time liberal.

I'm actually a little surprised there's not even the courtesy VP vetting of ex-candidates from this cycle, like Perry or Santorum.
 
Tamanon said:
It's a token gesture, I doubt Ryan would attach himself to the campaign of a Massachusetts part-time liberal.

I'm actually a little surprised there's not even the courtesy VP vetting of ex-candidates from this cycle, like Perry or Santorum.
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He's vetting Pawlenty, at least. Nonetheless, did you not witness the primary? It behooves Romney to ignore them. To even mention them would be detrimental.
RustyNails said:
So...no one mentioned Obama speech at NALEO today?

Needless to say, Campaign Obama is still the best Obama.
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No. You just did.

It was a quality speech. And he maintains the advantage on immigration, whereas Romney's still bemused. It's proving especially difficult to etch-a-sketch his primary performance. Does this sound familiar?
Others, such as Phoenix City Councilman Daniel Valenzuela, voiced skepticism.

“If that message was heard a few months ago, it would mean more today,” Valenzuela said of Romney’s advocacy for broader immigration reform. “But if that message was heard a few months ago, he probably would not be the Republican nominee.”

Valenzuela, who won election to a four-year term in January after running a campaign that succeeded in increasing Latino turnout by nearly five-fold, said that while jobs and the economy remain the No. 1 issue, immigration reform remains an issue of great importance to Hispanics.

“The elephant in the room is immigration, especially in a room that’s filled with Latino elected and appointed officials,” he said. “And I was wondering if he would address that, and he did. ... The confusion came in -- for me -- because just a few months ago, during the GOP debates, it was an entirely different message.”

Romney’s message back then, he continued, was “to veto anything that would have to do with the DREAM Act, and he mentioned that he would look to reform the DREAM Act. So, the message is there. I think what is damaging is the previous message of just a few months ago, and wondering which of these men we’re going to get as president should he win. There’s no consistency within the message.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...rom-attendees/2012/06/21/gJQAUnYDtV_blog.html
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I don't know, I still think Rubio might get picked. I understand the reasoning why he wouldn't, obviously, but I still think Romney would be desperate enough to pick an Hispanic republican for his VP to help secure votes.
 
ezekial45 said:
I don't know, I still think Rubio might get picked. I understand the reasoning why he wouldn't, obviously, but I still think Romney would be desperate enough to pick an Hispanic republican for his VP to help secure votes.
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I don't doubt Rubio's being considered. But that seems prohibitively myopic. If Romney selected Rubio, it would only increase the salience of immigration. And that is an issue which harms his candidacy. Not only does it alienate Latinos, it detracts from his focus on the economy. I'm fairly confident he'll pass on Rubio.
 
ezekial45 said:
I don't know, I still think Rubio might get picked. I understand the reasoning why he wouldn't, obviously, but I still think Romney would be desperate enough to pick an Hispanic republican for his VP to help secure votes.
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Rubio being selected would put a massive spotlight on the GOP's platform for immigration. That is the last thing they want because the party in general is against immigration reform and it highlights the obstructions they have done when Obama proposed legislation that they did not when Bush was there. Which would then provide an in for the Obama campaign to point out they have done nothing but obstruct the passage of laws since 2008

It appears as if Romney is finding out you can't just pivot back to the middle when you flew so hard to the right to begin with. Romney is going to have the same problem with women, on tape saying he would end Planned Parenthood and then trying to downplay it now.
 
The_Technomancer said:
Speeches like this are why I voted for him last time, and speeches like this are why I will vote for him this time, because when I listen to him talk like that I cannot for the life of me walk away with any impression other then "this is a man who genuinely wants to help people"
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Glad to know your reasons for voting are so shallow.
 
Kosmo said:
Glad to know your reasons for voting are so shallow.
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Would your opinion change if I amended what I said to "someone who will do his best to actually try and help people"? As in, I vote for him because he seems like a person who is aware of the realities of what Americans are facing and what they need, not hopelessly out of touch with what people actually confront in their day to day lives?
 
PantherLotus said:
That was also potentially a part of becoming the SoS, I bet. Also:

paul-ryan.jpg


I mean, the only thing better than Romney's cartoon-villain persona and presentation would be fucking count chocula here. Man oh man I cannot WAIT for Obama to hang Ryan around Romney's neck. When regular people hear about what he wants to do social security, medicare, and ... everything else... LOL. 320+ for Obama. Heard it here first.
Click to expand...
If romney picks ryan obama wins every 08 state plus az and mo, short of some catastrophe. I know republicans like to think of him as some sort of rock star but on a national campaign the ryan plan would go over like a lead balloon.
 
The_Technomancer said:
Would your opinion change if I amended what I said to "someone who will do his best to actually try and help people"? As in, I vote for him because he seems like a person who is aware of the realities of what Americans are facing and what they need, not hopelessly out of touch with what people actually confront in their day to day lives?
Click to expand...

Isn't that a politician's primary job? Obama is a brilliant campaigner, nobody is arguing that. Unfortunately, he's a horrible executive.
 
Kosmo said:
Isn't that a politician's primary job?
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And yet so many of them don't. I'm talking about the vocabulary he uses: when he gives speeches he brings up real concrete topics people are concerned about, something I can't say for Romney

We seem to think two different things about politicians: you seem to think that all (or most of them) do know what people care about and they just ignore those things (hence Obama is just saying what everyone in Washington knows), I think that there are plenty of politicians who are completely clueless about the actual things their constituants have to deal with.
 
Kosmo said:
Glad to know your reasons for voting are so shallow.
Click to expand...

Actually it doesn't take much critical thinking to realize the GOP is toxic to this country and have absolutely no business or interest in actually governing. Obama at least gets it and has made some strides in undoing the shitfest that came from bush.
 
PhoenixDark said:
SoS, eh? Ultimately I think Eznark is right: why should Ryan leave his castle for anything less than the presidency. He'll likely be the most influential republican in congress, and could be an heir apparent depending on who the VP is; I doubt Pawlenty will inspire much in anyone as VP, for instance.
Click to expand...

God, I hope he picks this pasty wiener. Comedy gold.
 
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