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[schuelma]

I know this is in vain, but I beg people to actually read the article before commenting- it actually is very good IMO and provides a good (though sobering) analysis of Wii U's future.

We've relied on industry sources to assess the Wii U's ability to play the probably cutting-edge games of the year 2014. These insiders themselves cannot assess the Wii U's power with 100% accuracy because the might of a console is the product of multiple factors. Judged by its RAM, the Wii U could be viewed as up to four times as powerful as the Xbox 360, boasting as much as 2GB of RAM to the 360's 512. But one insider who has had access to the machine says that the console's impressive AMD Radeon-based graphics chip is off-set by a CPU that runs at low speeds, can do out-of-order processing but has fewer threads than the 360. The insider says the Wii U has the power to run Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 ports with little difficulty. But they predict trouble when major third-party companies start producing games for the next Xbox and PlayStation, which will be about 6-8 times more powerful than the current 360 and PS3 according to several Kotaku sources who are aware of Sony and Microsft's plans for those machines.

In the short-term, the Wii U will be able to keep up with the most powerful consoles on the market, the 360 and PS3, and will likely even surpass them through much of late 2012 and early 2013.

One source encouraged us to think of Unreal Engine 3 as requiring the performance and capabilities of Direct X 9 but advised that demos running UE3 with enhanced specs, a la Samaritan and 1313, require DX9 performance but DX11 shader capabilities. They consider the Wii U close to that DX9-performance/DX11-capabilities combo but possibly hampered by its CPU, which they believe Nintendo is requiring to run at lower speeds in order to keep its chips from getting too hot and therefore allowing the machine to run as quietly as the Wii-and with relatively low power consumption.

Still, some UE4 games are expected as soon as next year, and UE4 is unlikely to run easily or immediately on Wii U. Our Direct-X-comparing insider considers UE4 as requiring Direct X 11 performance and capabilities, a standard beyond Nintendo's new device.

Fils-Aime expects major game-makers to create their games of late 2012 and beyond with the potential to accommodate the Wii U. Of the Unreal Engine 4, he said, "they're not finished yet. There's still work they need to do to finish that engine." Ultimately it is conceivable that Epic will adapt its UE4 so that it can run on the Wii U, as its Unreal Engine 3 has been proven capable of running on cell phones and in web browsers. But Fils-Aime's hope leaves ample room for doubt that the Wii U will be running, say, some future Unreal Engine 4 game in the Mass Effect series. It's not even clear whether it can even run the likes of UE3's Star Wars 1313, though I've repeatedly asked Nintendo for answers on whether the UE3 can handled such a modified UE3 game, to say nothing of UE4 titles. Should they nail that down, I'll update this story.

Certainly, the company's own Marios and Zeldas will look stunning as they enter the HD era and begin to exhibit, potentially, the kind of graphical detail seen in such PS3 and Xbox 360 visual masterpieces as Killzone 3 and Max Payne 3, albeit in the more cartoony style for which Nintendo is known. Nintendo's own games, in other words, will probably look great on Wii U.

"After the next generation of machines comes out, Wii U will be a performance orphan," one industry insider who is familiar with the specs of the new Nintendo console, told Kotaku. "It will be closer in performance to the next iPad than the next-gen machines. "

Link

 

[JaseMath]

Nothing we haven't fought about known already.

 

[commish]

Nothing new here... WU will be fine for the first year or so, and then it won't be able to adequately handle ports of next gen multi-platform games. A performance orphan is a great way to put it. Still, I think Nintendo has given up caring about keeping up with the Jonesesesese of the industry w/r/t third party games. I think they gave up like... 20 years ago.

 

[Pie and Beans]

The irony is I guess if Nintendo had made a bigger game box this go around, it could have looked vastly different to the Wii, not had this 'just a peripheral' problem, and had the whole power versus heat issue in the bag.

 

[Gaborn]

If Sony and MS's next consoles really ARE going to be 6-8 times more powerful what are they even going to cost?

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

If Sony and MS's next consoles really ARE going to be 6-8 times more powerful what are they even going to cost?

399.99

edit:349.99 wouldn't be out of the question either.

 

[SolidSnakex]

If Sony and MS's next consoles really ARE going to be 6-8 times more powerful what are they even going to cost?

$400? It's not like you'd need really expensive hardware to blow current gen consoles out the water. They've been very dated for years now.

 

[schuelma]

Nothing new here... WU will be fine for the first year or so, and then it won't be able to adequately handle ports of next gen multi-platform games. A performance orphan is a great way to put it. Still, I think Nintendo has given up caring about keeping up with the Jonesesesese of the industry w/r/t third party games. I think they gave up like... 20 years ago.

My guess is despite Reggie's PR bluster, Nintendo is again really aiming at Japan. Hence the GamePad, hence the compact box. Also, I do not think Japanese 3rd parties are in as good a position to fully upgrade again. I suspect Wii U's power might be enough for many of those publishers.

 

[soundscream]

"After the next generation of machines comes out, Wii U will be a performance orphan," one industry insider who is familiar with the specs of the new Nintendo console, told Kotaku. "It will be closer in performance to the next iPad than the next-gen machines. "

Oh MY

 

[Mumei]

Nothing new here... WU will be fine for the first year or so, and then it won't be able to adequately handle ports of next gen multi-platform games. A performance orphan is a great way to put it. Still, I think Nintendo has given up caring about keeping up with the Jonesesesese of the industry w/r/t third party games. I think they gave up like... 20 years ago.

I think they gave up after the Gamecube ran (I think?) a close second to the Xbox in overall hardware performance, still ran third (I think?) that generation, and seeing where the trend was going for how expensive it would be to keep up with the Joneses in the future. It does sort of amaze me how after one generation, Nintendo seemed to acquire this reputation as a company that had never cared about bleeding edge console graphics, though.

 

[rpmurphy]

Nice article. Definitely looking forward to see what the next generation consoles will bring.

If Sony and MS's next consoles really ARE going to be 6-8 times more powerful what are they even going to cost?

I think MS's new strategy of an Xbox 360 + XBL subscription payment plan can possibly be a smart option to offset the high costs of whatever powerhouse console/media hub system they want to make. Sony is behind MS on leveraging service over hardware, but I can see both parties pursuing that business model.

 

[Busty]

If Sony and MS's next consoles really ARE going to be 6-8 times more powerful what are they even going to cost?

A pound of flesh. And nothing from the mid section. They want that tasty, tasty rump meat.

 

[plagiarize]

The irony is I guess if Nintendo had made a bigger game box this go around, it could have looked vastly different to the Wii, not had this 'just a peripheral' problem, and had the whole power versus heat issue in the bag.

they think size of the actual console has a big impact on sales back home in Japan. i guess nothing happened with the Wii to convince them otherwise. the Wii U case is a good bit bigger than the Wii case though, but i do think all the rumours totillo mentions are on point, and i do think he's drawing the right conclusions from those leaked specs. UE4 support is iffy. first year or two the console will be putting out stuff better looking than the 360/PS3... then it may well get orphaned when Durango and Orbis show up.

it's still a better spot than the Wii was in power wise. it won't be AS left behind, in that any downports it gets should look a lot better than the downports the Wii got, but it is looking like devs are going to need to downport. even though that's going to be easier... and will likely be more common, it's still going to miss out on a lot of multiplatform games come 2014 or so, because even if its easier, it's still a lot more work than a straight port.

will that matter in the big picture of things? man, that's a hard question to answer. it won't matter to me personally... and it might not matter much for sales... but it's clearly going to matter.

i think Wii U games are going to look pretty good. i think the power gap is going to be obvious, but nothing like as big as it was between Wii and 360/PS3. but probably still big enough that it gets 'orphaned' yes.

 

[Combichristoffersen]

A pound of flesh. And nothing from the mid section. They want that tasty, tasty rump meat.

Microsoft and Sony are Albert Fish?

 

[SolidSnakex]

Nice article. Definitely looking forward to see what the next generation consoles will bring.

 

[Smokey]

Closer to next iPad in power got a chuckle out of me I admit.

 

[cyberheater]

Yep. Nothing we've not heard before.

It's a huge pity that Nintendo gimped the CPU to keep to a form factor. WiiU could have been awesome. A real step up. Sadly it isn't.

 

[schuelma]

Yep. Nothing we've not heard before.

It's a huge pity that Nintendo gimped the CPU to keep to a form factor. WiiU could have been awesome. A real step up. Sadly it isn't.

I have to admit that if that truly is their rationale they are not seeing the forest from the trees.

 

[BY2K]

Nice article. Definitely looking forward to see what the next generation consoles will bring.

 

[Boney]

My guess is despite Reggie's PR bluster, Nintendo is again really aiming at Japan. Hence the GamePad, hence the compact box. Also, I do not think Japanese 3rd parties are in as good a position to fully upgrade again. I suspect Wii U's power might be enough for many of those publishers.

But if you're targetting the home team, why not go all in and go for handheld development?

If you have a global output, consoles make the most sense, so Wii U is a hybrid system that could ultimately thrive on this environment or sink.

There's no details to really guess what'll happen, but I don't think it's as easy as 'A console targetted to Japanese households', which for all intents and purposes, it actually is.

 

[ElFly]

The CPU certainly will be a bottleneck, and it is easy to see when it is being done at the same process as the current 360 revision, 45nm.

 

[Effect]

My guess is despite Reggie's PR bluster, Nintendo is again really aiming at Japan. Hence the GamePad, hence the compact box. Also, I do not think Japanese 3rd parties are in as good a position to fully upgrade again. I suspect Wii U's power might be enough for many of those publishers.

That really shouldn't have been doubted. Everything Nintendo does is with Japan, and dare I say only with Japan in mind. Being able to stream the game to Gamepad is ideal. Not saying it won't be appreciated in the rest of the world but where hand helds are king, space is limited, and where family might only have one TV do to space it's a good direction to go in to provide a another portable experience but still sell a home console.

I really hope Nintendo has the full backing of the Japanese gaming industry going forward. They already have a western third party problem and after 2013 it's going to get worse if the rumors are true. If things are being kept low to reduce heat and sound why not just make the damn hardware a bit bigger to get in another fan or something.

So because Nintendo is worried about aesthetics they potentially shoot themselves in the foot and leg for measure. Possibly ending up in the same position as the Wii but for different reasons. A situation they clearly do not want to be in based on comments they've made in the past even if they made a LOT of money off the Wii. Unless something has changed and they really do no longer care if they do not get support from western third parties in the long run.

Will still be getting a Wii U but will also be keeping my PC up to date (for gaming going forward and work of course). In fact just did another small update as it was overdue.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

What Nintendo needs is an ecosystem where games that aren't targeted to have a Wii U version don't get funded. Where 1/3 of the revenue is likely to come from the Wii U version.

 

[Gahiggidy]

Does anyone consider the possibility that the other two machines will sell so poorly as to not justify making games targeted to thier hardware?

 

[NateDrake]

So the Wii U does have a GPGPU then?

 

[SolidSnakex]

Does anyone consider the possibility that the other two machines will sell so poorly as to not justify making games targeted to thier hardware?

Their third party support will be too strong out the gate for that to happen.

 

[KageMaru]

So the Wii-U has a triple core, single threaded, CPU?

Some of the things Reggie says in the article is crap, but otherwise there isn't really much new here.

 

[schuelma]

So the Wii U does have a GPGPU then?

This article definitely fits with the gimped CPU/pretty modern and powerful GPU rumor.

 

[Boney]

Does anyone consider the possibility that the other two machines will sell so poorly as to not justify making games targeted to thier hardware?

They'll be brute forced into creating such an environment (if they're not an attractive proposition in their own right of course). See PS3 and to a lesser extent 360.
If all publishers movilize in one direction, then consumers either follow or stay behind.

 

[Grecco]

Does anyone consider the possibility that the other two machines will sell so poorly as to not justify making games targeted to thier hardware?

No.

 

[Plinko]

So, as some of us predicted, this generation will be identical in terms of software support.

I also believe it ends up the same in terms of sales.

 

[cyberheater]

Does anyone consider the possibility that the other two machines will sell so poorly as to not justify making games targeted to thier hardware?

Not a chance.

 

[Fourth Storm]

Less threads confirmed? Damn, maybe that dude on Beyond3D was telling the truth. Maybe the master core can run 2 threads and the other 2 only 1 (so 4 threads total)? Or perhaps it can do a full 6 threads, but one is reserved for the OS?

Good work on digging a little deeper, Totilo, but let's get some solid numbers on this thing once and for all.

 

[rpmurphy]

gif

gifs

OT, but I think game GIFs are pretty annoying, actually. I'd rather have YT videos instead of short looping animations.

 

[Art Teitlebaum]

The analysis of the WiiU abilities seems plausible to me. I expect WiiU to be in the same position to the nextgen twins as Wii was in comparison to PS3 and X360. So not a big change in horsepower to this generation.

And for Nintendo and the fan base this is absolutely alright, because it is about the Nintendo franchises plus some Japanese mid-tier stuff and the Wii Fit / Dance Central segment.

As long the price is bearable, I have no problems seeing this package at least achieving a good share of the market.

 

[cyberheater]

So the Wii-U has a triple core, single threaded, CPU?

Some of the things Reggie says in the article is crap, but otherwise there isn't really much new here.

Has it been absolutely confirmed that it's single threaded? I'm sure some devs on here said it was two threads per core.

 

[Lonely1]

The analysis of the WiiU abilities seems plausible to me. I expect WiiU to be in the same position to the nextgen twins as Wii was in comparison to PS3 and X360. So not a big change in horsepower to this generation.

Except that isn't what the article is saying, at all...

 

[mrklaw]

Dear Nintendo,

The WiiU isn't a DS. Its not the end of the world if you need a teeny tiny fan in there, and a console case slightly larger than a pack of cards.

 

[agrajag]

Why would they shoot themselves in the foot like that with the CPU? If they made the box a little bigger, no one would mind. Not like Wii U is such a slick sexy device anyway.

 

[SolidSnakex]

OT, but I think game GIFs are pretty annoying, actually. I'd rather have YT videos instead of short looping animations.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVX0OUO9ptU

 

[Mpl90]

They'll be brute forced into creating such an environment (if they're not an attractive proposition in their own right of course). See PS3 and to a lesser extent 360.
If all publishers movilize in one direction, then consumers either follow or stay behind.

If those consoles have such high prices ( right now, 400 $ is a very high price ), I don't know.
And we have to consider what Microsoft is doing, the mediabox (so, part of the power should be used for other functions...I mean, the difference with Wii U will be still substantial, but not as substantial as if the specs were fully used for games ). Yeah, it's better to not predict how next gen will fare, since IMHO it could happen everything at this point. Even Wii U with a very big Western support. XD

P.S. I don't agree with the fact Wii U will be like Wii with PS360. The difference won't be as big technically. About the games, it's literally up in the air.

 

[commish]

Does anyone consider the possibility that the other two machines will sell so poorly as to not justify making games targeted to thier hardware?

This is just not possible.

 

[DaSorcerer7]

Has it been absolutely confirmed that it's single threaded? I'm sure some devs on here said it was two threads per core.

Exactly, is there a chance that his Totilo's info maybe slightly out of date?

 

[Delio]

So, as some of us predicted, this generation will be identical in terms of software support.

I also believe it ends up the same in terms of sales.

So they lead at the start then fall off completely?

 

[commish]

So they lead at the start then fall off completely?

Personally I feel a bit burned by the Wii, and I don't think I'm alone, judging by how many people bought a machine and then watched it collect dust for years. I think they'll have a harder time capturing the casual market outside of the initial push.

 

[cws]

Except of the CPU it doesnt even sound that bad - lets see how this will play out.

 

[Art Teitlebaum]

Except that isn't what the article is saying, at all...

I got the impression that it did.

Certainly, the company's own Marios and Zeldas will look stunning as they enter the HD era and begin to exhibit, potentially, the kind of graphical detail seen in such PS3 and Xbox 360 visual masterpieces as Killzone 3 and Max Payne 3, albeit in the more cartoony style for which Nintendo is known. Nintendo's own games, in other words, will probably look great on Wii U.

This is not very different to the situation right now IMO. What do you read out of these statements?

 

[Nibel]

"Perfomance Orphan" is the new "Dreamcasted themselves"

 

[Lonely1]

I got the impression that it did.




This is not very different to the situation right now IMO. What do you read out of these statements?

you are missing the rest of the article.

 

[Tobor]

So they lead at the start then fall off completely?

Dreamcasted.