shinra-bansho
Member
13 weeks.
Don't see the reasoning at least from this particular data. 2011 equivalent period was 1.03M.
YTD is marginally up in Japan as at last MC.
Sony Computer Entertainment 2011 Fiscal Report : Deficit Over 94.7 Billion Yen
- Thread starter chris0701
- Start date
Don't see the reasoning at least from this particular data. 2011 equivalent period was 1.03M.
YTD is marginally up in Japan as at last MC.
Opus Angelorum
Member
They would have to sell 1m units a month worldwide to reach 13m. If they are barely managing 500k a month, how is 13m attainable?
price drop or possibly new rumoured psthree model
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
The majority of sales are sold in the second half of the year.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not necessarily saying that they'll achieve 13M. I was pointing out the numbers you were using to reach this conclusion don't point to it and aren't really relevant anyway to this fiscal year.
I'm not sure if you're referring to just EU or WW.
First 13 weeks was 2.27M, not 1.5M, not sure where you're getting numbers from.
If their average weekly sales for their next fiscal year was the same as for the last 13 weeks of FY11 then yes, they'd only sell through 9 million units this FY year. That is of course under the assumption that all periods of the year are created equal.
Under the same assumptions, MS will sell through 7M 360s and Nintendo 5M Wiis globally.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Have you seen the PS3 line-up for the rest of the year?
JohnnySasaki86
Member
I pretty much laid it out in my previous post. By doing 7-8mil between Sept.-Dec assuming they drop the PS3 to $199 around Sept. These are there highest selling months. They did 6.5 last year between Oct-Dec, and a total of 13.9 for the year.
Its going to be very close. If they miss there target it wont be by more then .5-1mil.
Opus Angelorum
Member
First 13 weeks in EU was 700,000 roughly.
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
Yeah, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Resident Evil 6, BioShock Infinite, Tomb Raider (to a lesser extent), etc. looks pretty strong to me in terms of big sellers between now and the end of the fiscal year. GTA5 may make it as well, who knows.
They've sold over 14 million units the past two years. This year will probably be a bit weaker as this console cycle begins to wind down.
13 million units sounds like a reasonable estimate.
shinra-bansho
Member
The first 13 weeks in EU was 0.97M for the PS3, based on pixel counting Nintendo's chart.
We've already established the article has misinterpretted, and the 13M target is WW, though so I'm not sure why you're still operating under that scenario (13M in the EU is blatantly impossible).
Opus Angelorum
Member
I know the target is WW.
If it sold < 1m units in 3 months, and it needs to sell > 1m a month to reach 13m...I'm asking how they hope to achieve it? Price cut? Maybe
you just listed multiplatform games of which sell 60/40 to 360, and dont sell systems
shinra-bansho
Member
Presumably you mean per month, over 3 months. (Unless you're still talking about EU in which case... why?)
Both the PS3 and the 360 sold on average less than 1M units per month in the first quarter of 2011, and sold through 11M units a piece in the calendar year.
I don't think there'll be a price cut this year, but the forecast is ~1 million units lower, presumably taking that into account. 13M WW isn't really extraordinarily unreasonable.
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
Yeah, I did list multiplatform games. And they do sell systems. Far more than exclusives, actually.
Since when has an exclusive game really mattered in terms of system selling potential for either MS or Sony?
The games which sell systems to Joe Six Pack Gamer, regardless of how well they sell on other platforms, have always been multiplatform. This will be no different this year. And I'd argue that the multiplatform offerings this year are quite strong. So there's really no shortage of software.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Sorry my mistake, I was confusing per month with the total over 3 months.
Still, considering the games market I still think it's bold.
halo? uncharted?, every year or so theres a new one for that specific reason
if multiplats sold bucket loads of systems, we'd see 360 at 100m w/w by now and ps3 on 10m w/w, since 90% of multiplats are better on 360
Spoke to someone recently who commented that Sony is in a difficult position when it comes to selling assets to help 'keep the wolf from the door'.
There have been rumours for years that Sony wants to get rid of it's media (music, film & TV etc) divisions and under Kaz, coupled with their terrible financial performance, it feels more of an eventuality than a possibility.
The problem being that Sony will never get more than 'fire sale' prices for any of it's media assets because people know that A) the media markets are soft right now and B) the fact that people know that Sony need the cash does not exactly strengthen their negotiating stance.
Hence the noise that Sony were making about selling their New York HQ. At least real estate is more stable at the moment.
There have been rumours for years that Sony wants to get rid of it's media (music, film & TV etc) divisions and under Kaz, coupled with their terrible financial performance, it feels more of an eventuality than a possibility.
The problem being that Sony will never get more than 'fire sale' prices for any of it's media assets because people know that A) the media markets are soft right now and B) the fact that people know that Sony need the cash does not exactly strengthen their negotiating stance.
Hence the noise that Sony were making about selling their New York HQ. At least real estate is more stable at the moment.
Opus Angelorum
Member
@Busty
And that puts even more pressure on the PS4 launch, it has to be a success right from the off.
And that puts even more pressure on the PS4 launch, it has to be a success right from the off.
shinra-bansho
Member
It really depends on how well they're holding in Europe/PAL.
The US market is tanking for everyone. So they're down about 80K for Apr+May.
Known Media Create data has them down about 15K.
If Europe is holding OK I can see them down ~1M for the year, their sell-through ending up around 10M, which would probably equate to shipments of ~12.5-13M (based on last years sell-through to shipment ratio).
If Europe is tanking too then they'll miss target by a lot probably.
This is all without factoring in how the Wii U will affect current gen consoles too I suppose.
Hopefully they aren't dumb enough to compete with MS with releasing a more powerful console than the next xbox
@Opus Angelorum
Why didn't you quote my post? That's a little weird.
And what PlayStation home console had the luxury of not being a hit straight out of the gate?
I suspect that Sony will still be mindful of the mistakes made by the PS3 but that doesn't mean that they will have to radically change their strategy.
As someone (Nirolak?) said earlier in the thread if Sony release a PS4 that breaks even (never mind going into profit) when it's sold they risk losing too much ground to Sony and will potentially end up in a weird limbo middle ground between the 'nextbox' and the Wii-U.
Hmm. That's an interesting post. Could you elaborate on that? Do we know for sure how powerful the next Xbox will be. Even with that 'leaked' document it seems that it's still all smoke and mirrors at this point.
Why didn't you quote my post? That's a little weird.
And what PlayStation home console had the luxury of not being a hit straight out of the gate?
I suspect that Sony will still be mindful of the mistakes made by the PS3 but that doesn't mean that they will have to radically change their strategy.
As someone (Nirolak?) said earlier in the thread if Sony release a PS4 that breaks even (never mind going into profit) when it's sold they risk losing too much ground to Sony and will potentially end up in a weird limbo middle ground between the 'nextbox' and the Wii-U.
Hmm. That's an interesting post. Could you elaborate on that? Do we know for sure how powerful the next Xbox will be. Even with that 'leaked' document it seems that it's still all smoke and mirrors at this point.
To be fair, when I was young I never really thought too much about Sega's finances. I loved their games and assumed others did as well; I never considered what the gaming market would be like without them. It was naive, but I think it's just part of being very isolated in your own world and being 'immersed' across the vast amount of content that you're spooned out on a fairly regular basis.
Yeah. Once you see a giant fall, you start paying more attention to other giants.
I mean that the same kind or similar situation where Sony tries to one up MS with better hardware and then in the long run pay a much higher price for it (Like the PS3 and now Vita). Sony simply can't have the PS4 selling mediocre if they need it to be a hit, not saying that their hardware can't be powerful. They should simply look what Nintendo does and try to learn from that you don't need to be a generation ahead to sell well. They could simply make more money that way.
Now I don't know if the console market is going to shrink next generation...
I don't think StarHawk and Twisted Metal cost as much as Uncharted/GOW/GT. Their sales figure success should not be compared to the bigger budget games
Captain Tuttle
Member
I come to these threads for posts like this.
They just have to build a very efficient box. Don't go ultra-custom and keep to relatively common components where possible. It can still be powerful without being a monster and/or breaking the bank at a reasonable price point. But they don't need to be investing huge sums of money right now into component production, if that $1B story I see floating around is to be believed.
I don't know. The '[going] PC' part is pretty wise.
Exactly. The fall of Sega made the consequences behind company-related debates much much more real, more tangible. Before, it was merely schoolyard trash talk, but after, we see that systems, games, franchises are all on the line. We're forced to ponder what the industry looks like if Player A or Player B were to exit, who gains, who loses, what franchises rise & fall, what innovations become standard, and so on.
The exit of Sega was a seminal event in gaming, something that lingers in the background of every debate over companies, hardware, marketshare, third-party support, business models, etc.
This is going to be a fascinating decade.
Gemüsepizza
Member
That's nonsense. The problem of the PS3 was never it's power. The PS3 was late, it was unnecessary expensive and complicated to develop for. The Xbox 360 is about as powerful as the PS3, yet it did cost only $299, was released earlier and was easy to develop for. Sony can eliminate these problems, by releasing the PS4 at the same time of the Xbox 3, by streamlining it's features and concentrating on established parts and by making it easier to develop for. They could offer a very powerful console for $399 which is a good price. If Microsoft can do it, why do you think Sony can't? Microsoft does not sell their consoles at a massive loss. And Sony can do exactly the same.
No doubt. Even though I was gaming by the time Atari sort of collapsed and Nintendo took over, it didn't really impact me very much; I think I was too young at the time. But, when Sega fell? Yeah, you start to really pay attention to how these companies are doing and wanting them to do well, especially if they have a habit of producing things you care about. Because if they fall, there's no way to know if you'll ever see any of those IPs again.
We're seeing this a bit from this generation with some of the smaller companies shuttering, but it's a whole different thing when one of the big guys goes down.
Combichristoffersen
Combovers don't work when there is no hair
Ouch. Hope they can get SCE back on track. I would be sad to see Sony go belly up, since I've been gaming exclusively on Sony systems for 15 years (with a little PC in the mix) due to their exclusives (and the PS1 and PS2 getting all the third party support).
Parmenides
Banned
Sony F2Q10 Results Earnings Call Transcript (October 29,2010)
Masaru Kato (October 29,2010)
Sony F4Q11 Results Earnings Call Transcript (May 10,2012)
Masaru Kato (May 10,2012)
Bloomberg (June 27, 2012)
Game Business Operating Income (FY10 + FY11) ~ 60 Billion Yen
FY11 - Game
Masaru Kato (October 29,2010)
Sony F4Q11 Results Earnings Call Transcript (May 10,2012)
Masaru Kato (May 10,2012)
Bloomberg (June 27, 2012)
Game Business Operating Income (FY10 + FY11) ~ 60 Billion Yen
FY11 - Game
Gemüsepizza;39283189 said:
If MS wanted to, they could make a console that - if Sony were to attempt to match it feature-for-feature - would kill them. MS doesn't care overly much if it loses billions of dollars. But right now, Sony would be hurt if they tried to do the same. I'm not saying they're doomed, just that they need to play the PS4 very carefully.
I tend to think that MS has been deliberately trying to lure Sony into their power trap, and that Nintendo is biding their time, hoping that Sony falls for it, knowing that they'd essentially have Japan to themselves in the end..
Sony's gotta find a just-right balance, a Goldilocks level of specs.
gundamkyoukai
Member
In some ways yes but no matter how rich MS is they can't do anything vs certain problems these new consoles will have for eg power and heat .
Glass Rebel
Member
I wonder... if Sony made a console on the same level as the Wii U... would that leave MS standing in the rain?
We still don't have definite info about the Wii's full potential when it comes to power iirc but if its around PS3 level then Sony might as well just stick to it and retain the millions big install base instead of starting from scratch with a slightly more powerful console.
They just have to build a very efficient box. Don't go ultra-custom and keep to relatively common components where possible. It can still be powerful without being a monster and/or breaking the bank at a reasonable price point. But they don't need to be investing huge sums of money right now into component production, if that $1B story I see floating around is to be believed.
I don't know. The '[going] PC' part is pretty wise.
doesn't it depend how custom though? buying off the counter can end up more expensive overall if you don't license on good terms, and custom silicon can be no more expensive to produce, assuming you're farming out the production and aren't building factories.
If they've sunk $1bn into R&D they might as well finish what they've started, and that does suggest custom.
Throwaway123456789
Member
Nintendo put 1.3 billion dollars into R&D in FY '11 and '12. They're going to use 700 million USD in FY 2013 on R&D.
Just to put it into perspective.
grimshawish
Banned
Sony if they want to profit in the games industry (they should be their the biggest brand - and I really do mean that, they screwed it up by the recognition of Playstation is still there and strong) need to beat Nintendo at their own game.
They can't afford another PS3 end of. They should try to make themselves for a family again - its why PS2 did so well.
Generally though I don't know. Thats why they need a major management shake up. They can't survive (seriously, they can't) without a shake up, up there. So many bad decisions and Vita was launched with no strategy or thinking.
Its fucked up.
Also Sony are in a corner over Vita, they can't even have it more successful now without losses, yet they'll never make their money back unless they get units out there. The 'future returns' bollocks is bollocks and they can't bet for the future.
Vita should never have been launched in its current state.
They can't afford another PS3 end of. They should try to make themselves for a family again - its why PS2 did so well.
Generally though I don't know. Thats why they need a major management shake up. They can't survive (seriously, they can't) without a shake up, up there. So many bad decisions and Vita was launched with no strategy or thinking.
Its fucked up.
Also Sony are in a corner over Vita, they can't even have it more successful now without losses, yet they'll never make their money back unless they get units out there. The 'future returns' bollocks is bollocks and they can't bet for the future.
Vita should never have been launched in its current state.
Gemüsepizza
Member
What is "another PS3"? The PS3 is about as powerful as the Xbox 360, and the Xbox did cost $299 when it was released. And why would Sony release a PS4 which is only as powerful as the Wii U - but a year later? If they would pass on a tablet controller, they could release a console on the same day as the Wii U which is even cheaper. But they won't do that.
Glass Rebel
Member
This is true but assuming a half-generational jump at least one of the three console manufacturers is going to be left in the dust. We will see how this pans out but from an outsider perspective Sony seems to be in the most dire situation tbh.
IrishNinja
Member
The Last of Us
Last Guardian
FF XIII Versus + VII remake demo
Bioshock Infinity
GTA V + exclusive DLC
Super PaRappa Bros
that dude's been on a roll, too
grimshawish
Banned
Gemüsepizza;39283768 said:
PS3 is more powerful its just not worth it to develop to full specs (doesn't increase sales, and most devs port to PS3 as its not easy to develop on
(no matter what Rockstar say)
Not to mention the price they released it at was huge. PS4 won't be as powerful as WiiU, but I don't think it should be as powerful as the 720. Mind you - how powerful will the 720 be? I don't see MS going too powerful anyway - the market has to slow down a bit.
360 is actually a good machine and a profitable one - but the red lights really shafted their strategy with that. I think MS dealt with it well though.
PS4 needs to be affordable and competitive. Can they share the WiiU market? Questionable, but its also questionable if the NEXT GEN POWERx1000 is an affordable proposition or one that the market will take to.
Sony is in a dangerous position and its time to look for profit, they get an easy ride in the press but end of the day this gen has been pretty much a net loss for them. Yet Nintendo, the most profitable this gen, get all the negative press on it - its ridiculous.
Sony more than anything need a business strategy. Vita I hope was just a left over from the last regime.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Well Sony are in a difficult position.
On one hand they have to reduce costs, and on the other they need to compete with Microsoft.
They could make the PS4 less cutting edge, but still powerful (compared to the Wii U).
The problem Sony have is both Nintendo and Microsoft have a unique selling point (Wii U controller/Kinect). Move does not have the same appeal, so the PS4 is going to have to differentiate itself somehow. Now whether that is through hardware specifications or ecosystem we'll have to see.