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[Kosmo]

Hey Kosmo, if all undecideds break for the challenger, then is Scott Brown doomed?

See what the polls say in the run-up to election day. If Brown is still hovering around a 45-43 margin, he'll be gone.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

See what the polls say in the run-up to election day. If Brown is still hovering around a 45-43 margin, he'll be gone.

Why does Brown get a ceiling of 45% to be gone and Obama gets a 47% ceiling? Sounds like you are cherry picking man.

 

[Kosmo]

Why does Brown get a ceiling of 45% to be gone and Obama gets a 47% ceiling? Sounds like you are cherry picking man.

I looked up a recent poll and he was at 45. Why would I put him at 47? If he's at 47, he's probably gone too. In fact, he probably needs to be at 51 or higher is such a heavily Democratic state to have a chance.

 

[Blergmeister]

Why does Brown get a ceiling of 45% to be gone and Obama gets a 47% ceiling? Sounds like you are cherry picking man.

Native Americans have it tougher, man.

 

[Tim-E]

If an incumbent is under 50%, and especially at 47% or lower, even if polls show them "up" they are trouble.

With this kind of political polling insight and model, I think the New York Times will be kicking Nate Silver out and giving you a call.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Marquette Wisconsin poll (note: likely voters, for whatever that's worth)

Obama 51
Romney 43

Thompson 35
Hovde 23

Thompson 45
Baldwin 41

Baldwin 44
Hovde 38

Go Hovde! And now a snoozer:

Maine

Cynthia Dill (D) 7
Charlie Summers (R) 27
Angus King (I) 55

Obama 49
Romney 35

Obama's probably going to lose Maine now because he's under 50. Uh-oh guys.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

He's one of the democrats that can draw in white working class voters and Catholics thanks to his pro-life and economic populist views.

Plus he is by and large Pro-Gun, as are many rural PA Dems (even those very Pro-Union and/or Anti-War). His father was also very popular (while not a huge impact, it's a boost regardless).

He can draw in Philly and Pittsburgh with ease, but also the suburbs and even rural parts of the state.

 

[Kosmo]

With this kind of political polling insight and model, I think the New York Times will be kicking Nate Silver out and giving you a call.

Please, we don't need yet another Nate Silver scrotum oiling in this thread.

 

[Tim-E]

Please, we don't need yet another Nate Silver scrotum oiling in this thread.

My post was indicating that it is you, sir, who is getting the oiling.

Obama's probably going to lose Maine now because he's under 50. Uh-oh guys.

:lol

 

[DeathbyVolcano]

how anyone can hate nate silver...how...what the fuck

 

[Tim-E]

how anyone can hate nate silver...how...what the fuck

He's no Dick Morris.

 

[Kosmo]

how anyone can hate nate silver...how...what the fuck

Who hates him? It's just that every time he is brought up, people here want to blow him. He's a good predictor of races.

 

[RoninChaos]

How many times has Congress voted to repeal the ACA? Aren't people getting tired of this shit?

 

[RustyNails]

Nobody seems to find it weird Mitt Romney used to dress up like a police officer and pull people over for fun

According to TV producer Robin Madden, a former friend of Romney during his time at Stanford:

“He told us that he had gotten the uniform from his father,” George Romney, then the Governor of Michigan, whose security detail was staffed by uniformed troopers. “He told us that he was using it to pull over drivers on the road. He also had a red flashing light that he would attach to the top of his white Rambler. We thought it was all pretty weird. We all thought, ‘Wow, that’s pretty creepy.’ And after that, we didn’t have much interaction with him.”

In another story during Mitt’s high school days in Michigan, Mitt would pretend to pull his friends over while they were on dates.

Given the current climate of “being outraged over everything” it’s surprising, then, that nobody thinks it weird that the potential future president used to dress up like a police office and scare the shit out of people? I mean, yeah, I could see that shit flying in Michigan (because God hates Michigan and there is nothing to do there), but the behavior continued when he was in college in California during the late ’60s? Go to a reading. Go see a band. Don’t dress up like a police officer and pretend to pull people over FOR FUN.

Highest rated comment in Reddit

[–]knylok 1741 points 5 hours ago

A bunch of people are arguing that "people do stupid shit when they are young, and thus this is a non-issue". I would agree with that, partially.

This story being about "things Mitt has done" is the wrong focal point. I've done stupid shit when I was young too. The difference is that I didn't get caught. Had I, I would've been in trouble.

Mitt was helped out by his father. Given a uniform and siren and everything. His father wasn't young and stupid. Just rich. Mitt went around breaking the law and scaring people needlessly, with his father's approval. Because he has money and power, he was allowed to do shit that, for you and me, is very illegal.

He is used to a life of privilege, where money and power is more important than the law. I think that is a far more interesting thing to note.

 

[maximum360]

Please, we don't need yet another Nate Silver scrotum oiling in this thread.

Come on man. He's the Chuck Todd of poll numbers....except Nate is still somewhat useful.

 

[codhand]

I don't hate Nate Silver by any stretch, but his writing/blogging skills leave a lot to be desired, plus he was saying Rick (2 outta 3's not bad) Perry was a lock, for the Repub nomination.

 

[Tim-E]

Come on man. He's the Chuck Todd of poll numbers....except Nate is still somewhat useful.

RIP Chuck Godd

 

[Kosmo]

Nobody seems to find it weird Mitt Romney used to dress up like a police officer and pull people over for fun

Highest rated comment in Reddit

And you find this relevant to his ability to be President 50 years later how, exactly?

I other news, oh Joe, you so crazy!

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/07/11/biden-considers-379k-income-middle-class/

 

[Aaron Strife]

How many times has Congress voted to repeal the ACA? Aren't people getting tired of this shit?

33 times.

 

[Jackson50]

Do you just repost the entire TPM feed?

Although that's slightly annoying, it's not as egregious as cntrational who would spam each page with multiple round ups. And many of them were from the previous day.

If an incumbent is under 50%, and especially at 47% or lower, even if polls show them "up" they are trouble.

That maxim is predicated on outmoded conventionality. Although that may have been valid, and even then the evidence is exaggerated, recent elections have confuted the notion. And a more thorough analysis readily displays that undecided voters do not invariably break for the challenger.

Those polls seem to show its not much of a race right now. When will the Romney money advantage kick in?

I'd be reluctant to assess the race based on a few polls; a few of those polls are of dubious validity. Rather, the national polls, which are more bountiful and devoid of idiosyncrasies, provide a clearer depiction of the race. It's closer than it seems.

 

[Oblivion]

Perhaps because they think the Democrats are the best shot for the advancement of colored people? Is this really so difficult for you to understand?

But Abraham Lincoln was a Republican.

 

[Kosmo]

Weird, this is the sort of thing you usually hear from Republicans. But, well, Biden going off message, what can you do.

Just Joe being Joe! (shoulder punch)

 

[Tim-E]

And you find this relevant to his ability to be President 50 years later how, exactly?

I other news, oh Joe, you so crazy!

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/07/11/biden-considers-379k-income-middle-class/

You're critical of someone who brings up a story about something incredibly stupid Mitt Romney used to do because it "isn't relevant to being president", yet you're the one to bring up up lysol wipes, how manly a president needs to look on a bicycle, and lolz that Joe Biden sure is dumb lolzolz stories.

 

[pigeon]

Just Joe being Joe! (shoulder punch)

In fairness, making a good salary but still being underwater in debt IS pretty much the American middle class experience.

 

[RustyNails]

You're critical of someone who brings up a story about something incredibly stupid Mitt Romney used to do because it "isn't relevant to being president", yet you're the one to bring up up lysol wipes, how manly a president needs to look on a bicycle, and lolz that Joe Biden sure is dumb lolzolz stories.

Mitt impersonating a police officer and chasing down guys and cutting their hair sure makes him sound like a nice person. I'm pretty sure kosmo and others here would be calling for an independent counsel over these allegations if it were Obama.

 

[codhand]

Mitt impersonating a police officer and chasing down guys and cutting their hair sure makes him sound like a nice person. I'm pretty sure kosmo and others here would be calling for an independent counsel over these allegations if it were Obama.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Man, if I made 400k a year, with guaranteed hundreds of thousands of dollars guaranteed even after I retire, I would tour the world helping out people. I would pay off my house, purchase some cars and then start putting money away. How you can be that stupid with your money (he has home equity loans? Those are about the dumbest things you can do. Loans against life insurance policies? Sheesh.)

 

[Tim-E]

Mitt impersonating a police officer and chasing down guys and cutting their hair sure makes him sound like a nice person. I'm pretty sure kosmo and others here would be calling for an independent counsel over these allegations if it were Obama.

Mitt breaking the law in the 60s is okay, but Obama made composite characters in a book like nearly every memoir author on the planet does! What a lying scumbag.

 

[Dude Abides]

And you find this relevant to his ability to be President 50 years later how, exactly?

WHERE ARE THE TRANSCRIPTS OBAMA!?!

 

[RustyNails]

Man, if I made 400k a year, with guaranteed hundreds of thousands of dollars guaranteed even after I retire, I would tour the world helping out people. I would pay off my house, purchase some cars and then start putting money away. How you can be that stupid with your money (he has home equity loans? Those are about the dumbest things you can do. Loans against life insurance policies? Sheesh.)

Biden's net worth is negative...He has shit to pay off. Being underwater is a distinctly American Middle Class experience.

 

[Tim-E]

WHERE ARE THE TRANSCRIPTS OBAMA!?!

If Obama got a B in Intro to Philosophy, the American public needs to know.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Biden's net worth is negative...He has shit to pay off. Being underwater is a distinctly American Middle Class experience.

So he is an upper class citizen with middle class problems.

 

[kehs]

And you find this relevant to his ability to be President 50 years later how, exactly?

I other news, oh Joe, you so crazy!

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/07/11/biden-considers-379k-income-middle-class/

To be fair to Romney, he's made a career and campaign about pretending.

 

[RustyNails]

So he is an upper class citizen with middle class problems.

I make $70k, including per diem. According to my taxes, I'm in the top 10%. But I live in a non-central AC 2BR apartment, and drive a used 11 year old Accord with a busted bumper, and have $40k in loans for wife and $4000 in personal debt. I would say this would classify me as "upper class" citizen too, with middle class problems.

 

[PantherLotus]

Going back a few pages to the NAACP thing:

1. Romney went there because he had to. McCain did. Bush the younger didn't, and was given a lot of shit for it.

2. This is hard for some people to grasp, but he didn't go there explicitly to change people's minds, not that he couldn't have done better or wasn't trying. The real reason GOP people go to these things is so they can make Susie and Joe Suburban more comfortable with their own inherent racism. See, he's trying. He's not racist! And neither are his policies. That means I'm not either.

 

[AlteredBeast]

I make $70k, including per diem. According to my taxes, I'm in the top 10%. But I live in a non-central AC 2BR apartment, and drive a used 11 year old Accord with a busted bumper, and have $40k in loans for wife and $4000 in personal debt. I would say this would classify me as "upper class" citizen too, with middle class problems.

Who does your taxes for you? If you are only making 70k but are paying taxes equivalent to the top 10% (which typically begins at $113k as of last year) then you are doing it wrong. You are not in the upper class unless you happen to live in a podunk town or in Mississippi, in which the point still remains.

I made nearly 80k last year and would NEVER consider myself upper class until I broke 150k or so. And this is in Nebraska where my buying power goes a hell of a lot further than in California, New York, New Jersey, or hell, half the country. I also paid an effective rate of like 12% last year. Hopefully your wife didn't take on 40k in student debt for a liberal arts earn-nothing degree.

I do have the same middle class problems as you, though. Paying for the mortgage, car loan, student loans, and so on piles up like crazy and many months there is little left, 80k a year or no.

 

[ghstwrld]

The Faces (and Reactions) in the Audience as Mitt Romney Delivered NAACP Speech

 

[PhoenixDark]

Waiting for Silver to comment on the Priorities polls. My initial reaction is that it's very hard to take polls from PACs seriously

 

[DeathbyVolcano]

The Faces (and Reactions) in the Audience as Mitt Romney Delivered NAACP Speech

loooooool

 

[AlteredBeast]

Those two women each look like half of Michelle Obama...

 

[PantherLotus]

Those two women each look like half of Michelle Obama...

This is an unfortunate comment.

 

[kehs]

The Faces (and Reactions) in the Audience as Mitt Romney Delivered NAACP Speech

Dude has no idea how to go off script. lol

 

[codhand]

The Faces (and Reactions) in the Audience as Mitt Romney Delivered NAACP Speech

So many thousands of words.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

That's not upper class, amigo. You could probably call it upper middle, if you like. Depending on where you live.



OMG

Woman on the left needs her face cut out into a smiley.

 

[PantherLotus]

 

[RustyNails]

That's not upper class, amigo. You could probably call it upper middle, if you like. Depending on where you live.

Probably, that's why I put it under double quotes. But wouldn't 10% satisfy upper class? By the way AB, H&R Block.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Waiting for Silver to comment on the Priorities polls. My initial reaction is that it's very hard to take polls from PACs seriously

Nate has said before that while internal polls are usually biased, they shouldn't be discounted outright.

Virginia senate ba-da-ba-ba-ba

Tim Kaine 46
George Allen 44

Will likely be a close one but it seems like Kaine has the edge. Undecided voters break for Obama as well.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Probably, that's why I put it under double quotes. But wouldn't 10% satisfy upper class? By the way AB, H&R Block.

10% is 113k, afaik. And even though the divide between 70 and 113 is only 43,000 dollars, that is a HUGE difference in percentiles.

I hope you got a good refund, then.

 

[codhand]

have $40k in loans for wife

Shoulda got the truck....

 

[Tim-E]

Nate has said before that while internal polls are usually biased, they shouldn't be discounted outright.

Virginia senate ba-da-ba-ba-ba



Will likely be a close one but it seems like Kaine has the edge. Undecided voters break for Obama as well.

It's good that Kaine is at 46% because if he was a point lower at 45% he'd be toast. </kosmothirtyeight>