I was watching the most excellent Gangs of New York this weekend and something stuck in my head as it relates to the coming release of the Microsoft Surface.
Prepare for a little trip, as I am going to venture off into crazy town with this post. Let me state now, very clearly I have not used a Microsoft Surface. I have passing knowledge of Windows 8. I do not use on a daily machine yet, though I am very excited about it. I have handled a few Windows 8 and Windows RT devices.
The Microsoft ecosystem, though while it had numbers, succumbed to the ferocity of the Apple onslaught. It didnt matter that the OEMs were willing to fight alongside Microsoft, they werent fighting an inspired fight.
The story moves forward a handful of years and DiCaprio (Neesons son) takes the lead in the movie. His is a cause born of revenge. Revenge is a challenging lubricant. It doesnt inspire others. You will find yourself alone in your cause. However, as DiCaprio transitions from fighting out of vengeance to fighting for a cause (specifically, ridding the 5 Points of tyranny and injustice), he begins to build his following. He identifies a need in the population, and exploits it to achieve his specific goal.
Years of uninspired PC manufacturing was a cause born of complacency. When it was clear that the iPad had dealt a serious blow, the reaction was that born of vengeance. Do more of the same, and hope for a different result. As much as it pains me to make this analogy, the Surface is DiCaprio in the third act of the movie. How? Keep reading.
Apple talks about their iPad share, but they dont talk about their Mac share. They are controlling the battlefield by defining the metrics for success. iPhones and iPads are the shiny new thing, and thats what is being reported and of course, they are the undisputed leader. The reality, however, is that PC sales far outstrip iPad sales. Many will say for now and they have reason to. PCs, in their current manifestation, cannot solve the problem the iPad solves in an elegant way.
People need to stop thinking about Windows 8 tablets, and Windows 8 laptops, and Windows 8 PCs as if they are separate things. Ballmer and company get this, and have begun referring to them as devices. Devices. This slight shift in nomenclature has the potential to tilt the battlefield back in Microsofts favor. They can now claim numerical superiority. Picture the headline Windows ships on 1 billion devices!
Next orthogonal. Have you noticed a lot of work or noise going into the Windows Phone 8 brand? I have been out of the company long enough that I have no idea what they are doing over there. It would not surprise me if the lack of a Windows Phone 8 brand marketing is specifically because the shift to that word devices is because the powers that be in big Windows (i.e the Sinofsky camp) want to report on Windows 8 licenses shipping on devices. Remember, Windows Phone 8 is Windows 8 at its core.
So coming back to this DiCaprio as the Surface idea. What was that all about? Here goes
The Surface is a product that finally allows the legions of Microsoft fans to get what they want. To get the laid back entertainment screen (apps, games, news, email), and a full up operating system for productivity work. Lets not forget the true killer app in Office. Its still very relevant. Please dont come at me with Google apps. Even with our iPad, my wife still does virtually all of her work on her Macbook Air. Why? Convenience and productivity.
The Surface is pretty (so is DiCaprio, but that point is not relevant here). Its light. Way lighter than any laptop. It will weight just a teeny bit more than an iPad. Its way cooler than any laptop. But most importantly, it is inspiring the OEMs. Its showing them that there is innovation and coolness left in the Windows legacy. Its demonstrating that the OEMs should necessarily roll over while the iPad eats their lunch. But theres something that Windows 8 gives me that I cannot get today device nirvana.
I believe that Windows 8 is going to do well, though I think its going to take some time to get its legs. If I were Apple, I would actually be very concerned about the reality of history repeating itself. As Derek Sivers posted, ideas are fine, but execution matters. Is it possible that Apples execution has only been great, and not brilliant? They havent cracked the corp nut yet, so its not crazy to say that they havent truly capitalized on their brilliant idea by selling the majority of their devices to consumers. Doing a version of a brilliant idea is at best a great idea, perhaps a good idea, but if executed brilliantly, well, thats a nice outcome. Microsoft has played that game before. Windows (vs. Mac) and Office (vs. WordPerfect & Lotus) stand as testimony.