Gallup: R 52-O 45 Time to Worry?

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K

KidOmega

Member
GAF,

Romney is up by 7% in the latest Gallup. I'm really starting to worry now. I've never been much into politics until the past couple of years. I'm liberal leaning and a democrat. I'm reasonable though so I can stomach a moderate Republican in the White House. Romney terrifies me though. I've never seen such a slimey in your face politician with lies that spill out of their mouths as easily as Romney. His entitled and manic behavior also concerns me.

Please put me at ease. Is the Gallup poll a fluke???
 
M

massoluk

Banned
Outlier happens. Like Nate Silver said, it's good outlier occurs once in a while, it means a pollster isn't making shits up.
 
S

Shake Appeal

Member
Romney's path to an electoral college victory is basically a tightrope. Stop freaking out over individual popular vote polls more than two weeks out.
 
L

Lambtron

Unconfirmed Member
I find it highly unlikely Romney will end up winning. But if he does end up winning, we deserve everything we get.
 
D

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
A large portion of any lead Romney might have I'm sure is embedded in deep red states that Obama doesn't have to worry about anyway. Obama's got 270+ almost guaranteed barring any major fuckups.
 
O

Open Source

Banned
I wouldn't put too much stock in it. For one, Gallup isn't known for its accuracy in predicting elections. For another, it's mostly pre-2nd debate responses in there. Thirdly, it's likely voters - Romney is only up 1 in registered voters. In addition, every poll has a margin of error - best to look at poll aggregations like on realclearpolitics.com. Lastly, it's about states, not the total popular vote. Obama's still got the advantage in places like Ohio.

Fivethirtyeight is who I'd be looking at if I wanted to look at any 1 source.

All that said, I think Romney's strategy has been to save his bucks and blow his load at the end, so I would not be surprised if it was a 50-50 thing by election day.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
While I do think that many liberals on GAF are far too nonchalant about Romney's post debate bounce in the polls, the fact of the matter is Obama does have a strong demographic and electoral college advantage with Latinos breaking heavily towards Obama. Despite the strong national poll numbers for Romney, Obama still leads in Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada (albeit by significantly smaller margins than before the debate). If Obama wins Ohio, Romney needs to win almost every other swing state to make up the difference. If Obama wins Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada, it is game over for Romney. Beyond that, much of the movement in the national polls has come from safe states (i.e. Texas, California, New York).

As an Obama supporter, I am nervous as hell simply because of the volatility of the polls post debate, but there is no denying that Obama has an electoral advantage which with any luck, will hold through the election.
 
G

giga

Member
Gallup's LV model is the outlier. Chill. Swing states are all that matter.

VnSv+
 
M

metalslimer

Member
It's outlier, and even if it wasn't popular vote means nothing

Beyond that, much of the movement in the national polls has come from safe states
Click to expand...

Exactly. However, it's fucking insane that people could seriously be getting more enthusiastic about someone as slimy as Romney. The south really is a crazy place.
 
T

troushers

Member
The truth is that there is no difference between the candidates. They are two boxes of soap powder with identical content but different boxes. Hope this helps.
 
D

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
troushers said:
The truth is that there is no difference between the candidates. They are two boxes of soap powder with identical content but different boxes. Hope this helps.
Click to expand...

Dumb post if serious post.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
troushers said:
The truth is that there is no difference between the candidates. They are two boxes of soap powder with identical content but different boxes. Hope this helps.
Click to expand...

No matter how much you people type this crap, it will never actually be true.

Saying both candidates are shit? Okay. A lot, even diehard Obama supporters, will agree.

Saying they're exactly the same?

No. Stop this shit.
 
B

bdouble

Member
Romney scares you when Obama signs thing like the NDAA, want to take away our 2nd amendment, has subpeoned and arrested more journalists than any pres ever ect ect.

No these polls dont matter the election doesnt really matter but scared is the right reaction.

The system has been hijacked and we the people dont matter.

Edit posting on an iphone
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Gallup's internals have been showing Obama up everywhere except the South. He's losing horribly in the south, which isn't surprising. As long as that keeps up, I'm not really going to panic. He wasn't going to win the south, and the electoral college makes it so that even if all those southerners go try and vote him out it won't matter. Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin matter.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Gallup has two models working. LV (Likely Voters) and RV (Registered Voters). LV has Romney +7 and RV has Romney +1.

Also in Gallup model Obama is up in every region other than the South. In the South, Obama is -22.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
giga said:
Gallup's LV model is the outlier. Chill. Swing states are all that matter.

VnSv+
Click to expand...

Was going to point out the broader context. Gallup has a history of being very swingy, and their LV screen is highly questionable. And they are the clear outlier in the data.

Look to polling aggregates rather than individual polls.

FWIW, a 7-point spread is what Obama won by in 2008, and it translates to an electoral blowout. And yet, Romney's electoral map is very narrow, with Obama showing a steep advantage. Romney is unlikely to win this election.

jbug617 said:
Gallup has two models working. LV (Likely Voters) and RV (Registered Voters). LV has Romney +7 and RV has Romney +1.

Also in Gallup model Obama is up in every region other than the South. In the South, Obama is -22.
Click to expand...

Also, the historical spread between LV and RV is R+2. The +6 spread Gallup shows is not going to take place.
 
O

Omegasquash

Member
genjiZERO said:
This is the only poll worth paying attention too. Obama is doing just fine.
Click to expand...

Was about to say. Remaining cautiously optimistic, however. It's never over until it's over.

Baraka in the White House said:
A lot of people in the South just really, really... really hate Obama.

But not because he's black. No sir.
Click to expand...

Oh, they don't hate him for the color of his skin, no. Doesn't have anything to do with his middle name either, I suppose. The deep south is a neat place.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
I haven't seen any Obama/Biden stickers/posters anywhere here in Maine. LOTS of Romney/Ryan. Dems seem so uninspired compared to '08, despite the internet rantings. It does make me concerned.
 
D

Diablos

Member
troushers said:
The truth is that there is no difference between the candidates. They are two boxes of soap powder with identical content but different boxes. Hope this helps.
Click to expand...
You are completely wrong.

And Gallup recently changed their model, but something must be wonky. Obama is averaging >50 approval in the daily tracking, and it's worth nothing that no candidate/incumbent with those numbers has lost with only three weeks left. Why the LV model is so heavily favoring Romney remains to be seen, but something is very wrong here. At some point the daily tracking, LV, and RV models are going to have to tighten as election day gets closer.
 
R

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
bdouble said:
Romney scares you when Obama signs thing like the NDAA, want to take our 2nd amendment ripped away, has subpeoned and arrested more journalists than any pres ever ect ect.

No these polls dont matter the election doesnt really matter but scared is the right reaction.

The system has been hijacked and we the people dont matter.
Click to expand...

LOL
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Sigh... No. As stated, overwhelming support in the South is skewing the average, and Obama still has his 271 EV firewall of OH/WI/IA intact, regardless of national polling
 
P

pigeon

Banned
On the larger topic: yes. You should be terrified. This is a nightmare and possibly the worst thing that could happen to America.

Go do some phonebanking this weekend, or Romney will win and it will be your fault for not choosing to fight for your vision of America.

http://www.barackobama.com/gotv/#!/
 
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