Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB (96-percent started)
Matchup: at Chi
Over the past three weeks, Rodgers has resembled a year-old box of opened Saltine crackers. His stale numbers during that stretch (249.0 combined ypg, 3:2 td:int split, 18.3 fppg) have tarnished the 'stud's' once impeccable image. Though many owners in the fantasy community moronically adhere to unproven 'always start' theories, the popular first-round pick is worthy of a demotion, provided one has a suitable replacement. Based on his recent string of disappointing efforts and unfavorable Week 15 matchup, the decorated passer's ceiling is uncharacteristically low. Yes, a rash of injuries to key players (e.g. Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings) have made the Bears more Berenstain than bruising, but with their backs against the wall they should rise to the occasion. Peanut Tillman remains one of the league's finest turnover catalysts and pass defenders. He ranks third in coverage according to Pro Football Focus, surrendering only 8.6 yards per catch. Jennings, who is targeting a return this week, is equally impressive, yielding a 46.8 QB rating, the fifth-lowest in the league among corners with at least 300 snaps. And safeties Major Wright and Chris Conte rank well above-average defending the pass. Overall, the unyielding secondary has allowed a 12:21 TD:INT split in 13 games. Stifling. In nine career starts, Rodgers has caged his arch-rival tallying a 101.0 QB rating, 243.3 yards per game and 17 touchdowns (1 rush). But possibly minus deep-threat Jordy Nelson and given the harsh road environment, he could post a line nearly identical to what he did in the clubs' first meeting this season (219-1-1), a very supbar performance. This time of year, average means elimination.