airmangataosenai
Member
PS3 turned things around with a couple of Musou games and a price drop. Wii U already had a Musou game that tanked and it's already priced the same as the PS3 is currently.
Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2013 (Feb 18 - Feb 24)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
PS3 turned things around with a couple of Musou games and a price drop. Wii U already had a Musou game that tanked and it's already priced the same as the PS3 is currently.
That's kind of my points- the PS3 was on the market before a long time before it showed any real signs of health.
And yet we are writing the obituary on Wii U after 3 months? Seems a bit premature to me.
pieatorium
Member
It wasn't selling as bad as the wiiu is currently and you were one of the most vocal obituary writers for the Vita at this time last year.
I guess it's just fun to talk about systems' demises. I'll only be scared if the Wii U is still selling this bad after its heavy hitters come; I'm just writing off these first few months when there is literally almost nothing releasing. March should tell us a better sign, but we won't really know until a system seller comes how the Wii U will do.
Apophis2036
Banned
Apart from the fact that it was one of the games that was responsible for turning around the 3DS's fortunes it will also be the game that imo will show off the small graphical leap between PS360 and WiiU best.
There also no slouch in the sales department selling 18 million over the two Galaxy games.
Combined with a price cut an amazing 3D Mario has the potential to get two or three million 'core' gamers to buy the system but with the two big boys just around the corner I'm not convinced it will work 100%.
The console should have launched with 3D Mario and Pikmin 3 with Mario Kart and NSMB U taking advantage of the install base in time for it's second Xmas.
I know that, that doesn't make it a Platinum game.
It's like saying Resident Evil and Devil May Cry are Platinum games too
Father_Brain
Banned
I see where you're coming from, but this is unfair.
Wii U has major games coming that are guaranteed to have a significant positive impact on hardware sales. Now, exactly how significant (will the boost be enough to save it from GC-level sales, or possibly worse?) is a perfectly reasonable question. But that's still a good deal more than could ever have been said for Vita.
shinra-bansho
Member
Aren't we talking about a period of languishing below 10K for potentially H1? Even through to the end of CYQ3 depending on what happens with Nintendo's software releases?
PS3's first 150 weeks, line drawn through 10K level. It took 27 weeks to drop below 10K, it stayed sub-10K for 7 weeks. The next time that happened was 32 weeks later.
Although, none of this means that mediocrity is out of reach of course.
Spieler Eins
Member
I'm just saying that it looks like their most interesting title since that game to me. Because it's the same people. Under a different name, but the same track record as before.
I wonder at what point retailers slow/stop stocking it?
shinra-bansho
Member
This is in reference to Japanese sales though, where 2D Mario outsold each 3D Mario by a factor of 4 or 5 iirc on the Wii.
No. What does that have to do with my question about 3D Mario?
jeremy1456
Junior Member
A good part of that has to do with the legs on NSMB titles. They frequently re-entered the charts when other games were released.
You think NSMBU is done selling?
Well, it got pretty good word of mouth did it not?
I don't think I called the Vita dead last February, though frankly I thought the system was in trouble from the start.
I continue to think the Vita comparisons are misplaced as long as zero big selling software is announced for the system, while knowing that significant Nintendo 1st party output is in the works.
Nintendo is in a lot of trouble and frankly I think of you look at my post history the last few months, I have admitted several times I was wrong about Wii U launch sales and taken Nintendo to task almost daily for what they have done as far as post launch support.
If you want to call me biased, feel free to do so- we all are to some extent. But I do try and approach these threads with a good faith effort.
I was just thinking that- he missed out by about 3 weeks as far as actual sales goes, but his overall opinion has certainly been vindicated to a large extent.
H_Prestige
Banned
They only had legs because there were a crap load of Wii and DS owners already there to sell to.
NSMBU is not a system seller. Anyone who still thinks so is delusional. It will end up with decent sales, but nothing remarkable.
Seriously Nintendo, at this rate just do what I also think the Vita should have done a long time ago: Price cut, bundle the Premium Set with something other than Nintendoland, include Nintendoland as a DD if you feel like it but make sure to bundle it with a moderately interesting game and you might start moving some units, ah yeah, forget about the Basic Set, eliminate it.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
You're telling me that the DS version sold all (or even most) of its five million copies in the first month?
Crazy, I could have sworn I saw it continuously pop up on the charts for the next few years. Guess I'm delusional.
I don't care what anyone else thinks, but I sure hope Nintendo has realized it. I'm very eager to see them take a different direction entirely for the next 2D Mario game.
Baki
Member
WiiU is a healthier platform in Japan than the Vita. Simply due to Nintendo being the biggest and baddest software publisher around. Especially with Japan being Nintendo's strong point.
I expect Japan to be the WiiU' s healthiest market by a significant margin - but that may not be saying much.
A 20+M selling franchise usually fits the bill for a system seller.
I expect Japan to be the WiiU' s healthiest market by a significant margin - but that may not be saying much.
A 20+M selling franchise usually fits the bill for a system seller.
H_Prestige
Banned
So you think NSMB was the game driving DS sales all those years, and not the shit load of other software flooding the system?
And even if it was to some extent a system seller, I specifically said NSMBU is not a system seller.
Of course it's not saying much. It's just like saying Japan is by far the Vita's healthiest sales region.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Apparently you didn't read my post. Let me help you:
I was saying that they contribute, considering the fact that they re-entered the charts frequently to new users. I imagine there's some level of impact from already released software that have legs like NSMB.
Of course I'm just imagining NSMB2 on the charts right now. It isn't really there and I'm just seeing things, right?
pieatorium
Member
It might not have been this early I don't remember exactly but you were very adamant it was completely dead fairly early on and were calling for sony to discontinue the system.
I do think you are a little biased but like you said we all are
I dont think your bias is really affects how you comment on the actual sales, they are bad and you have been pretty tough on Nintendo for letting it get this bad but i think you give a little more leeway to things log term as far as nintendo goes and are quicker to call things out from other companies (not specifically talking WiiU/vita here).I personally agree that the WiiU does have a better outlook than the Vita in the long term but none of that will make any impact until the holidays. Comparing this year WiiU to last year for Vita I really believe the WiiU will sell much more poorly untill those big titles at the end of the year.
I don't think Game and Wario will do much, Pikmin will cause a bump but I doubt it will be much more than what the vita got for P4G. Pikmin might have a better sales record than Persona but i think alot of that audience is the same as what have already bought into the system with NSMB and Nintndoland.
I've gone over Wii fit a number of times why I don't think it will sell. The audience for these games aren't on the WiiU yet and I don't think they are going to buy a new system for the new game. The fitness game market has dropped significantly everywhere. In 2011 you still had things like Zumba and Biggest Loser Chick topping sales charts in some regions and then this year the new instalments barely charted anywhere.
This ended up longer than I planned, TLDR WiiU isn't dead but it's got a long wait for it's medicine.
Liabe Brave
Member
Though Nintendo must be sweating bullets, I think the people who should be most worried about the WiiU numbers are Sony. The sales shed by the Wii over the last few years didn't really shift to the PS3; it just looks like home consoles aren't exciting the Japanese right now.
This fall, the PS4 is going to be at least 10,000¥ pricier than WiiU (I think even more than that), without even the promise of Nintendo's big software--Kart, Mario 3D, Pokemon--or the typically-big Nintendo holiday jump. If they don't have a Final Fantasy right near launch, Sony could be in huge trouble.
This fall, the PS4 is going to be at least 10,000¥ pricier than WiiU (I think even more than that), without even the promise of Nintendo's big software--Kart, Mario 3D, Pokemon--or the typically-big Nintendo holiday jump. If they don't have a Final Fantasy right near launch, Sony could be in huge trouble.
They might be in huge trouble even if they do have one.
InsaneZero
Member
Who would want to get a PS4 when the PS3's going to have strong hitters, especially now that it's confirmed that there's no BC?
I don't think we have seen the bottom for the Vita yet in the US. Sales were going down and down until September (I guess thanks to the Madden bundle). Then down again in Oct and the inevitable bump in Nov and Dec. And in January it is down again, in fact it had its worst weekly sales since launch. We may see an increase now in Feb, but it won't be surprising if it only goes downhill until the price drop or Nov, whichever happens first.
Likewise with the Wii U -- coming from the launch high in free fall.
God knows how low these systems will go. Negative is the limit.
Anyway, off-topic. =P
They prooooobably learned from AC
pieatorium
Member
I think it paints a pretty bleak picture for both in that as bad as they are doing in Japan they are doing worse elsewhere.
StreetsAhead
Member
Hopefully 2 and U's slower sales, combined with the success of AC in Japan (thanks to the changes, presumably) they will change up the next installment some.
Random thought: Advance Wars style Pikmin tactical strategy game for 3DS...I really just want Pikmin 3 to come out
metalslimer
Member
When specifically talking about Japan, I don't think mediocre sales are out of the question for Wii U, but then how does Nintendo maintain a sustain level of mediocre sales for the platform? The question for many consumers going forward isn't exactly why should i buy a Wii U. It will be why should I buy a Wii U over all these other platforms. Nintendo's software is certainly popular, but if we look at the Wii later on its lifespan when 3rd party support completely petered out, the Wii had a hard crash to reality in between Nintendo's games. Even looking back before then the Wii was wildly inconsistent long before then.
I keep saying but this is why Nintendo will have to put out a massive investment into their development. Of course, Nintendo may be happy with just attaining above gamecube sales in Japan. But then I think in the west, Nintendo has MUCH more to worry about considering the 3DS has not really bounced back there and there is actual competition in the same direct space coming.
It really is a Vita like situation where it has hit such a low that it is doing equally as shitty across a 3 territories. Of course the US situation is the most worrying, but I really think Nintendo stands the best chance of a comeback in Japan. The market (assuming Vita doesn't get much better) is basically the 3DS and PS3 right now and the PS3 is heading towards a big decline. Something has to fit into the space left by all these platforms bombing/dying.
I keep saying but this is why Nintendo will have to put out a massive investment into their development. Of course, Nintendo may be happy with just attaining above gamecube sales in Japan. But then I think in the west, Nintendo has MUCH more to worry about considering the 3DS has not really bounced back there and there is actual competition in the same direct space coming.
It really is a Vita like situation where it has hit such a low that it is doing equally as shitty across a 3 territories. Of course the US situation is the most worrying, but I really think Nintendo stands the best chance of a comeback in Japan. The market (assuming Vita doesn't get much better) is basically the 3DS and PS3 right now and the PS3 is heading towards a big decline. Something has to fit into the space left by all these platforms bombing/dying.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Nintendo flubbed CY Q4 in the US. No deals for black friday and only Paper Mario to hold up the holiday.
This is the year of Pokémon. And Monster Hunter in Japan. Those are legitimate system sellers.
StreetsAhead
Member
If 3DS can't beat last year with that, I'll be proven wrong. Maybe I'll eat a hat.
3DS 2013 First Party
-Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon (March, all)
-Tomodachi Collection (April, JP)
-Daigasso Band Brothers
-Mario & Luigi RPG 4: Dream Team (Summer)
-Mario Golf World Tour (Summer)
-Donkey Kong Returns 3D (Summer)
-Pokemon X & Y(October, all)
3rd Party:
-Ace Attorney
-SMT4
-Youkai Watch
-Kaiou: King of Pirates
-Prof. Layton
-Monster Hunter 4
-Inazuma '13
-Gyrozetter
-Monster Hunter 4
Mobile? Social?
Even the 3DS can barely be said to be covering the ground the DS held, but Vita is no PSP, Wii U is no Wii, PS4 will probably be no PS3, and the next Xbox will be irrelevant. Not a great outlook for dedicated game systems in Japan.
pieatorium
Member
Yeah there are definitely some qualifiers, handhelds should (at least historically) have a better market % in Japan so the Vitas woes there are worse than they might seem on paper but the same can be said for the US and the WiiU/home consoles.
It's likely that the MGS/Final Fantasy/Resident Evil type big third party games hit for the PS4 (after they drop PS3 in the next year), some or probably most i believe wont be on WiiU as multiplats when that switch is made. Which sort of leaves this question of if those type of big budget games all target PS4/720 will everything else just go on the 3ds?
I would hope that there might be some kind of avenue for third parties to look at a WiiU/Vita multiplat strategy.
2 to 3 million where? I hope you're saying worldwide because there's no way a 3D Mario can sell that much in Japan. 3D Mario sales are good but 2D Mario sales double them and cost less to produce. They should make a 2D Mario game with a 3D Mario budget.
Hero of Legend
Member
Why does no one who's in the position to, have the balls to ask Iwata what's going on with 3rd-parties on Wii U in JP?
pieatorium
Member
It's actually up y/y for the FY, but the FY isn't finished yet.
For 3DS:
CY2011 - 15.04M
CY2012 - 14.81M
Last FY (1st 9 months) - 11.43M
This FY (1st 9 months) - 12.71M
Pokemon and a more aggressive Christmas push has the potential of giving the 3DS a bigger FY total next year. Not a certainty by any stretch, but it is definitely plausible.
metalslimer
Member
Because you would just get a deflected answer at this point as saying they aren't there would be suicide for him until they can turn the system around. If Iwata ever does step down, the interviews he could give or statements he could make into wtf is actually going on inside of Nintendo would be fascinating to read.
StreetsAhead
Member
He has mentioned GDC as a time to talk about Wii Street U-like projects, I believe. That's a kind of first-party.
Clearly Nintendo thought Rayman, Pikmin 3, and maybe Wonderful 101 would make the launch window
what's frustrating to me is how easy a backup plan would have been. Why not release a special edition of Bayonetta to prepare people for the sequel? why not release an HD collection like Mario Galaxy 1 and 2, together on 1 disk? The Wind Waker remake indicates that Nintendo's head isn't completely in the sand, but why not release a new GC or Wii remake every ~3 months? it's easy money and fills out gaps in the release schedule.
what's frustrating to me is how easy a backup plan would have been. Why not release a special edition of Bayonetta to prepare people for the sequel? why not release an HD collection like Mario Galaxy 1 and 2, together on 1 disk? The Wind Waker remake indicates that Nintendo's head isn't completely in the sand, but why not release a new GC or Wii remake every ~3 months? it's easy money and fills out gaps in the release schedule.
Hypereides
Member
From a business point of view, I think its time for Nintendo to make a "true" home console version of Pokemon akin to the handheld versions.
Fully exploreble world, HD visuals, MMO like features - or intrusions by friends/players - some pokemon will be left out of your version and you visit your friends or other people's worlds to find and capture them etc. etc.
They need to exploit that option, because it would probably create a buzz about the Wii U more or less. Its probably something people have been waiting for some time now. Its long overdue, and may rejuvanate the sales.
Fully exploreble world, HD visuals, MMO like features - or intrusions by friends/players - some pokemon will be left out of your version and you visit your friends or other people's worlds to find and capture them etc. etc.
They need to exploit that option, because it would probably create a buzz about the Wii U more or less. Its probably something people have been waiting for some time now. Its long overdue, and may rejuvanate the sales.
Agree. For revealing in mid 2011 and ignoring the Wii since 2010 they were woefully unprepared.
First party wise I do think it's an interesting comparison that Sony really has a total of two internal games announced for Vita, presumably in favor of supporting the PS4, despite having a first party on par with Nintendo from a staffing perspective.
Nintendo is about 5000 people total these days, while EA, Activision, and Ubisoft are all 8000-9000 employees. Mass hiring might be in Nintendo's interest, since as you have noted earlier, Nintendo keeps missing obvious release dates with their software.
Of course, it's hard to find 4000 new people in Japan given that one of Capcom's primary stated reasons for Western outsourcing is the lack of developers in Japan who can make HD games, with Capcom having much more humble aspirations than the size disparity I mentioned between Nintendo and major HD third party publishers.
Which is another reason why Nintendo's refusal to expand in the west is so mystifying.
He gets grilled pretty hard at those Investor's Q&As. Iwata pretty much bullshits his way through those, though. I think he said there wouldn't be a post launch drought with the Wii U, and that they've learned their lesson with the 3DS? Yeah.
walking fiend
Member
I am pretty sure they can find developers for 3DS in the worst case scenario, and gradually move their more capable staff to Wii U games; in a more optimist scenario, noting that Nintendo's almost a generation behind what Capcom's high end technology was and will be, pretty soon, they can even find developers capable enough to squeeze Wii U. Actually, I think this will become one of their main advantage against PS4 as long as Japan market and Japanese centered games and developers are concerned.
But I don't really think any sudden increase of staff is in their favor. One of the reasons they could handle the massive drop in Wii sales, was that they didn't have a lot of work force to pay for.
Of course you could argue that if they had a lot of more developers, they could probably make enough games to prevent the situation from happening to begin with; but I don't think any of these companies grow large in a short time; the last major publisher that I remembered doing something sudden to rush games, was Disney with Epic Mickey.
I believe they are much better off with spending their money on collaboration with Japanese 3rd parties as a 'short' term solution, as not only it will not burden them with development teams that may have worked on games that may flop and doesn't warrant further development, but also it will strengthen their ties with the 3rd parties while at the same time allowing them to use their diverse range of IPs.
They should have expanded more rapidly, but now that they didn't, it's not a wise choice to do that in a short amount of time.