fluffydelusions
Member
I'm sure that new Pokemon will do wonders
how much does it afflict you that next-gen (3DS/VITA/WIIU) is struggling so much?
- Thread starter sphinx
- Start date
I'm sure that new Pokemon will do wonders
The Wii U is a product that has been available for some time now, it would seem natural that more people would know about the system actually purchasable in stores as compared to the PS4 that isn't out until the end of 2013 and hasn't even been fully shown yet: But still my experience has been the opposite. The PS4 first unveiling certainly has created much more buzz than any Wii U announcement ever did.
SneakyStephan
Banned
Never said it wasn't, the DS was good because it was really cheap so it was good value.
3ds at 99-130 euros is good value, 3ds at 250 was not.
Not everything has to be high end, I liked that psp and ds each had their own niche and the price reflected that.
It's a thread about what you personally think about current systems struggling,and I raised a slow user interface and high price as the reasons.
You might want to read the thread title before unleashing your bile.
Even then I'm not sure how thinking a slow OS is not ok is egocentrical.
What? Of course there was. Not everyone, but a significant number.
Chû Totoro
Member
I've already give my opinion but I'm sure PS4 and Xbox 720 won't sell as good as some here are hoping.
Wii U clearly has a bad launch and Nintendo now have something to prove before the two other systems come out. I'm not saying Nintendo will fail facing the "true" next gen systems (as once again some are saying) but they would be really stupid to let the little advance they have not to at least make a descent user base for the end of the year. They seem to do their best so we'll see. I'm personally hoping they will have enough buyers so they can keep making the games I like but I don't want to see a competitor fail... it's useless and stupid.
PS4 and Xbox 720 will be more expensive than Wii U and despite the technological advance I'm not sure the majority of people will be receptive to this before having at least 3-5 must have games. That makes a lot if you don't have more than a graphic leap and media player capabilities to justify it.
The multimedia capabilities are not a very big argument since in France for example you have a Blu-Ray / Media player in almost everything under your TV. And the games themselves will probably cost 70 and PS4 controller is likely to cost 50+
Like always... the games will make the sales but they sure will be way lower than we're used to. Just look at the last PS3 and 360 top rated games. They sold less than not as good games a year or two before. And people won't buy games because they're beautiful for a long time if not at all.
I just think that the market is not as big as it used to be. It reached a peak and now it's time to go back to reality.
- a part of the people who started to play with the Playstation are only interested in a few games. Like I said, half of the PS3 / 360 owners around me are just playing CoD, Fifa or GTA. That's it. Their gaming budget is really low and if they can pirate games they just don't care for the industry... So I'm not seing Sony and Microsoft to sell a lot of games, at least.
- and more importantly the ones who played Wii (and mainly its casual games) won't buy any next gen system. They'll stick with iPad or f2p games. And they are just the biggest pirates I know. Everyone who can jailbreak his iPad for free games is doing it instantly and everyone who had the opportunity to pirate Wii or NDS games was doing it also (I've told this already but I've once saw a father coming asking in a french video game retailer if he could have an NDS R4 Linker so he could download games. Yes he said it like that!)
So for me the biggest mistake Sony, MS and a lot of devs / editors are making is putting that much money onto something I'm not sure they make that much in return. Games will cost a lot and they won't sell enough to make profit most of the time. Look at THQ and others who did go bankrupt, they were very big video game companies sometime during this generation... now prepare for some others bankruptcy.
We're going back to video games being mostly for passionate people. And that's not a bad thing. Casual will play on smartphones / tablets and f2p on their computer.
Wii U clearly has a bad launch and Nintendo now have something to prove before the two other systems come out. I'm not saying Nintendo will fail facing the "true" next gen systems (as once again some are saying) but they would be really stupid to let the little advance they have not to at least make a descent user base for the end of the year. They seem to do their best so we'll see. I'm personally hoping they will have enough buyers so they can keep making the games I like but I don't want to see a competitor fail... it's useless and stupid.
PS4 and Xbox 720 will be more expensive than Wii U and despite the technological advance I'm not sure the majority of people will be receptive to this before having at least 3-5 must have games. That makes a lot if you don't have more than a graphic leap and media player capabilities to justify it.
The multimedia capabilities are not a very big argument since in France for example you have a Blu-Ray / Media player in almost everything under your TV. And the games themselves will probably cost 70 and PS4 controller is likely to cost 50+
Like always... the games will make the sales but they sure will be way lower than we're used to. Just look at the last PS3 and 360 top rated games. They sold less than not as good games a year or two before. And people won't buy games because they're beautiful for a long time if not at all.
I just think that the market is not as big as it used to be. It reached a peak and now it's time to go back to reality.
- a part of the people who started to play with the Playstation are only interested in a few games. Like I said, half of the PS3 / 360 owners around me are just playing CoD, Fifa or GTA. That's it. Their gaming budget is really low and if they can pirate games they just don't care for the industry... So I'm not seing Sony and Microsoft to sell a lot of games, at least.
- and more importantly the ones who played Wii (and mainly its casual games) won't buy any next gen system. They'll stick with iPad or f2p games. And they are just the biggest pirates I know. Everyone who can jailbreak his iPad for free games is doing it instantly and everyone who had the opportunity to pirate Wii or NDS games was doing it also (I've told this already but I've once saw a father coming asking in a french video game retailer if he could have an NDS R4 Linker so he could download games. Yes he said it like that!)
So for me the biggest mistake Sony, MS and a lot of devs / editors are making is putting that much money onto something I'm not sure they make that much in return. Games will cost a lot and they won't sell enough to make profit most of the time. Look at THQ and others who did go bankrupt, they were very big video game companies sometime during this generation... now prepare for some others bankruptcy.
We're going back to video games being mostly for passionate people. And that's not a bad thing. Casual will play on smartphones / tablets and f2p on their computer.
Actually that's what I'm hoping but shhh
AZ Greg
Member
Because so many non-Nintendo handhelds have good track records?
Also, this mentality that the market for core gamers has just vanished is wrong. ~150 million 360/PS3s have been sold WW. Even if you assume a high number of those were bought for Kinect/Move you're still well over 100 million. Just because that approach didn't work with the Vita doesn't mean it's a bad one. It didn't work for the original PSP and that had no relation on the 360/PS3 selling.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Explain to me how having less money for a publicly traded company is not a problem?
I don't think software will be a "problem" in the first year. I think developers have been waiting for the new consoles long enough to have games ready. Also, PC development should trickle down to the next gen consoles more than ever.
We still don't know a lot about the PS4. After we know the launch games and the price, we can actually judge how it will do.
CornBurrito
Member
At least for me, memory card prices prevent me from buying the system. I see an amazing price, but then know I have to mentally tack on an extra 100+ dollars for memory sticks. And that is 100 dollars that could have gone to games instead.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Takeaway: Gaf analysts are typically wrong, and apparently NSMBU was not a game people really wanted.
Oh there was quite a lot of optimism that I recall. It was finally going to solve all the problems the PSP had in the West and all that.
yup. this too. a lot of the audience that looked at the Wii and went "cool. why not?" have moved on to other places to play games
I was thinking about Wii to Wii U specifically. Both products are out and we can judge how they execute on their vision and look at how consumers are reacting to the things.
None of us know how the PS4 or 720 will sell. We do know how the PS4 is being positioned so I could see it being a bit better success than the PS3 (lower launch price is likely, for example) but it won't reach PS2 levels of saturation as I think the competition is better now than it was before. But I don't feel comfortable predicting more than that...
No idea how the 720 is going to turn out, honestly. there's the rumors of what it'll be like but we need to see more to make any guesses.
I think the 3DS is very salvageable with Pokemon and a 3DS "lite" revision. The Wii U? I think it's a horse that Nintendo is going to be sending to the glue factory. It's not doing well. Maybe through force of will Nintendo will turn it into a modest success (GameCube+5) but it isn't doing well. The system launched 2 years too late. I think if it would have launched Christmas of 2010 it would have been a big success because the Wii train was rolling back then. The Wii just died in 2011. The Wii U is too expensive. The system should be $199 and $250 not $299 and $350. Nintendo is in a world of hurt because now is the time that publisher marshal resources to development and they aren't going to bet on the limping horse that is stumbling around the track.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
All the consoles you have mentioned had shit third party support and handhelds have seriously deteriorated since last gen.
Next gen stars when these come out:
At least one of them will do fine because they have third parties on board.
Next gen stars when these come out:
At least one of them will do fine because they have third parties on board.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
As long as games like Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Watch Dogs, etc are going to be cross-generation, I think sales for next-generation consoles are likely to suffer for the first year or two.
Performance will undoubtedly be better on next-generation consoles, but is that worth the price of a new console?
Performance will undoubtedly be better on next-generation consoles, but is that worth the price of a new console?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I didn't say they'd struggle "like Vita, Wii U, and the 3DS." I just said they'd struggle.
I think the core gamers will run out and get them like always but the average consumer is going to be tough to grab. I think they've moved on.
3DS and Vita is underperforming because they cannot compete in the mobile market, a market that introduced new business models that the current console manufactures still fail to grasp and therefore making them much less desirable devices than what can be gotten in the mobile & tablet market. The 3DS isnt doing bad, but there is still a clear impact from the mobile market.
Wii U on the other hand is just a mess due to several things. The software currently offered arent as strong as what the Wii launched with, there is not really anything that really showcases what this system can do like Wii Sports did back in the day. The third party offerings a good, but current generation consoles have the same games in just as good or better versions, making the Wii U editions less desirable for core gamers.
The biggest fuckup with the Wii U is the advertisement itself, i swear to god i have never seen such a big trainwreck for a major product launch. I still do not think that people really knows that the Wii U is a console, but just another add on the old dusty Wii they have at home. Nintendo chose the worst name for any console ever, they are not even trying to establish a new ecosystem in the name itself so how should consumers even know that this is something new from the name alone? Nintendo ONLY focus on the controller itself, only adding to the perception of it being an add on.
Another part is that the system doesn't integrate too well in the living room compared to the rich media experiences of the PS3 and Xbox 360, people have no reason to spend money on a new system that can do the same with a much much worse UI. Nintendo also doens't understand the social aspects of the internet and fails to implement good communication tools into the core of the system, a core reason to why the Xbox 360 became popular with the core gamer audience.
The Wii U is a Wii 2.0 in a world that cares a lot less about hardware and instead embraces services. A console is no longer a console, it's a service. Microsoft understood this with the 360 from the get go and what Sony presented with the PS4 shows that they absolutely embrace the same philosophy. Nintendo is doing some things, but their services are still so disjointed from everything and only ends up being forgotten features.
Wii U on the other hand is just a mess due to several things. The software currently offered arent as strong as what the Wii launched with, there is not really anything that really showcases what this system can do like Wii Sports did back in the day. The third party offerings a good, but current generation consoles have the same games in just as good or better versions, making the Wii U editions less desirable for core gamers.
The biggest fuckup with the Wii U is the advertisement itself, i swear to god i have never seen such a big trainwreck for a major product launch. I still do not think that people really knows that the Wii U is a console, but just another add on the old dusty Wii they have at home. Nintendo chose the worst name for any console ever, they are not even trying to establish a new ecosystem in the name itself so how should consumers even know that this is something new from the name alone? Nintendo ONLY focus on the controller itself, only adding to the perception of it being an add on.
Another part is that the system doesn't integrate too well in the living room compared to the rich media experiences of the PS3 and Xbox 360, people have no reason to spend money on a new system that can do the same with a much much worse UI. Nintendo also doens't understand the social aspects of the internet and fails to implement good communication tools into the core of the system, a core reason to why the Xbox 360 became popular with the core gamer audience.
The Wii U is a Wii 2.0 in a world that cares a lot less about hardware and instead embraces services. A console is no longer a console, it's a service. Microsoft understood this with the 360 from the get go and what Sony presented with the PS4 shows that they absolutely embrace the same philosophy. Nintendo is doing some things, but their services are still so disjointed from everything and only ends up being forgotten features.
metalslimer
Member
The only problem I see is if CoD doesn't have a next gen version and GTA5 doesn't have a next gen version. The majority of people will just ignore the consoles then and buy those games. I hope to god Sony has something more than Killzone and Knack to launch the PS4 with.
SneakyStephan
Banned
Yeah, and the games are more expensive than their pc equivalents often (sonic racing transformed for example).
I could deal with paying the silly price for the memory card because the system itself is cheaper than I expected it to be, but once I count what I'm paying for the games it doesn't look like a good deal anymore.
If the cards drop in price (and I'm talking halve in price) then combined with ps+ ''free'' games I can deal with paying a silly 40 euros for a few of the games, but both the cards and the games is too much fleecing.
Master Nairb
Member
As a hardcore gamer I was content with the current generation of consoles and the products being delivered for most of the cycle - and still am. However in 2010, I was personally looking for more, strictly because I wanted to be apart of what very view gamers were doing which was high-end PC gaming. I built a very strong PC and that symbolized the changing of the generations for me a few years ago. Right now, I don't plan on buying any new consoles until I find which one offers the best experience that goes beyond just being super powerful in the graphics department. The decision will probably take two years as I see the 2 PowerHouses duke it out.
I have lots of friends who now have families with kids between the ages of 5-10. I would say about 75% of my friends fit into the category that just finally bought there first console a year or two ago for their kids when they were ready to handle it. Regardless of if its a PS3, 360, or Wii they are all content with the current systems. There kids WILL want the new ones and their parents WILL get them for them eventually, but after a few years. I believe there is a huge casual family market share that is in this boat.
Also, I have been surprised lately by a few friends who are specifically going to wait to see which console of the big 3 goes on to be the next generations leader so they don't have to buy two consoles again when there kids want to play the games everyone else is playing on line - Example being COD on 360.
In short I believe the next generation will do well but take a little longer to get moving then usual and these new consoles will be on the market even longer then next generation.
I have lots of friends who now have families with kids between the ages of 5-10. I would say about 75% of my friends fit into the category that just finally bought there first console a year or two ago for their kids when they were ready to handle it. Regardless of if its a PS3, 360, or Wii they are all content with the current systems. There kids WILL want the new ones and their parents WILL get them for them eventually, but after a few years. I believe there is a huge casual family market share that is in this boat.
Also, I have been surprised lately by a few friends who are specifically going to wait to see which console of the big 3 goes on to be the next generations leader so they don't have to buy two consoles again when there kids want to play the games everyone else is playing on line - Example being COD on 360.
In short I believe the next generation will do well but take a little longer to get moving then usual and these new consoles will be on the market even longer then next generation.
Maybe but I wouldn't guarantee it now. NSMB was supposed to skyrocket the 3ds and wii u forward like it did on DS and Wii and it hasn't, same with Mario Kart on 3ds so far. Some of them may even be doing well compared to the industry average, but they're not doing the 15-20 million their predecessors did that helped make those systems as successful as they were.
Liquid_Bike
Member
It doesn't bother me because I don't think the vita/wiiU and to a lesser extent 3DS offer a very good value proposition. Right now there is nothing I have to play on any of them. I'm still really excited for the PS4/720. I'll be getting at least one of them at launch.
CoD is a given surely. If Assassin's Creed, Watch Dogs and other third party titles have next gen versions then surely CoD does too.
Sony's launch will be fine software wise, as will Microsoft's.
The 3DS sucked this past winter because of it having one notable major game: Paper Mario: Sticker Star, which wasn't exactly the seller Mario Kart and 3D Mario were the previous year. Plus it got no new colors and no major deals (for the XL) at Black Friday, while every other system did. It has an absolutely stacked lineup this year, and I fully expect the system to be more successful than the GBA/GBC, once said and done.
As for Wii U, we just don't know a lot about the games yet. It's difficult for anyone outside of Nintendo fans to buy it when they're literally almost no games coming out during January and Feburary. It'll finally start to pick up in this month, when it gets finally gets some notable games. We'll see how it does after its major sellers come. It's not a Vita situation.
The strength of Pokemon overall as a brand for guaranteed sales far outweighs that of any Mario sub franchise. Pokemon is THE system seller for handhelds, and much moreso than anything else that is labelled a system seller.
With the transition into 3D, and people left wanting more after B2/W2, there's no doubt in my mind that these will be the fastest selling Pokemon games ever. It's the biggest leap visually and from rumours, mechanically in the longest time.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Wii U not so much because I know I will get the system eventually and love it to death and all the games I wanted on the Wii will be there and it will be the best console Nintendo has made in 10 years.
Vita though makes me really sad. Anyone that has one probably feels similar. It is flawlessly executed from a design perspective. It really could be something special. I hope it stabilizes just enough to not go the way of the dinosaurs.
Vita though makes me really sad. Anyone that has one probably feels similar. It is flawlessly executed from a design perspective. It really could be something special. I hope it stabilizes just enough to not go the way of the dinosaurs.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
NSMB/Wii sold 15-20 million over time. They didn't sell that immediately. Sure, NSMB2 might not hit that number, but it's an evergreen title. Check again in a few years.
Pokemon will likely make for a huge holiday season for Nintendo because the TV show is still huge (at least in the U.S.). Before this October, kids could get their Pokemon on the DS (games released last year, none the less), so why upgrade?
Mario Kart 7 is at 8M in a year, and NMSB2 at 6M in six months. It's not like they're not selling like gangbusters. And Pokemon is bigger in handhelds.
I don't think so. Core gamers are hankering for nice hardware and the pubs have invested so much in blockbuster games that they want new powerful hardware to show them off and keep the money coming in.
Of course at US$599 they will.
flatearthpandas
Member
As a 3DS/Vita/Wii U owner, I don't see the problems as being indicative of next-gen problems.
I'm pretty happy with my 3DS. Games were a bit slow for a while, but there was always something to play.
I imagine that's how the more reasonable Vita fans feel right now as well, but my disappointment with both the Vita and Wii U were completely avoidable. I don't see there failure to catch on as being a market problem, so much as the Vita doesn't have enough high quality exclusive games to convince someone who owns a current gen console to buy one. The Wii U suffers from the same problem, coupled with the fact that the Wii U was basically like a middle finger to the core gamer from Nintendo with its horrific OS and very misleading information Nintendo gave before launch, such as how it would have an account system and accomplishments.
I'm pretty happy with my 3DS. Games were a bit slow for a while, but there was always something to play.
I imagine that's how the more reasonable Vita fans feel right now as well, but my disappointment with both the Vita and Wii U were completely avoidable. I don't see there failure to catch on as being a market problem, so much as the Vita doesn't have enough high quality exclusive games to convince someone who owns a current gen console to buy one. The Wii U suffers from the same problem, coupled with the fact that the Wii U was basically like a middle finger to the core gamer from Nintendo with its horrific OS and very misleading information Nintendo gave before launch, such as how it would have an account system and accomplishments.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
I know none of us can predict the future but nope. They will be immediately more successful day 1 that Wii U and I will eat my hat if not.
Wait a sec. Your not Solo.
Yep. I overheard a conversation a couple days ago between what most people would describe as hardcore gamers. They were all amazed when one of them revealed that the WiiU was a new console and not just an add-on. He said he was surprised when he found out too. They probably don't visit forums or read everything online like we would, but they don't just play COD. There were a couple other things that made them sound really ignorant, but the more I hang around with normal people the more important clarity seems. Even if they are fucking stupid.
I think X/Y can get close to Gold/Silver in terms of sales, due to the 3D upgrade and the fact that the 3DS hasn't been hacked yet.
You have nothing to play on your 3DS? At the very least you should be playing Fire Emblem/Etrian Odyssey right now, not to mention the lineup for this March.
Windom Earle
Member
Not really. 3DS is doing ok but the handheld market is just not the same, Vita is not marketed and is in even heavier competition with iToys.
Wii U is just a joke console, so no surprise it is not selling. Buzz for PS4 is huge and I think it will do just fine.
Wii U is just a joke console, so no surprise it is not selling. Buzz for PS4 is huge and I think it will do just fine.
It's not always a problem of price. I mean there is a market for a product, or not.
3ds is clearly what the japanese market wants. And it probably is the last healthy house for a certain category of gaming.
Is there a market for the WiiU.. Nobody knows right now.
For the Vita ? Same.
The PS4 and 720 will slowly reconquer their current market.
Maybe Microsoft will try to go more casual to expend it, and end with a smaller share cause they'll make the same mistake as Nintendo.
For Nintendo and home consoles, i really think the Wii diversion hided the real situation to some people. It was so easy to hide behind a "but the wii is the number one console on the market"... But people have to realize Nintendo hasn't been leading, not even relevant in market share, for the "classical" gaming market since the N64.
3ds is clearly what the japanese market wants. And it probably is the last healthy house for a certain category of gaming.
Is there a market for the WiiU.. Nobody knows right now.
For the Vita ? Same.
The PS4 and 720 will slowly reconquer their current market.
Maybe Microsoft will try to go more casual to expend it, and end with a smaller share cause they'll make the same mistake as Nintendo.
For Nintendo and home consoles, i really think the Wii diversion hided the real situation to some people. It was so easy to hide behind a "but the wii is the number one console on the market"... But people have to realize Nintendo hasn't been leading, not even relevant in market share, for the "classical" gaming market since the N64.
fluffydelusions
Member
Wow, I didn't those numbers were that good for MK7 and NSMB2. I'm impressed.
Quality? This is a sales thread. We're talking numbers, and 3DS won't come close.
Except for Nintendo's own measurements.
The Wii U could pull back at xmas with Mario kart and Wii Fit, but it's obviously an uphill struggle again. It probably wouldn't hurt to make yet another Wii Sports game.
I'd gladly pay for Wii Sports Resort HD so long as you bundle in Tennis this time.
Mario Kart on DS and Wii sold strongly for a long, long time. It wasn't a matter of 10 million in one month, but it sold well every month for the lifespan of the device. The 3DS had a bit of a struggle getting moving, but it seems to be capturing people's attentions now.
As for the Vita, even if it were half price it's hard to imagine it getting any real momentum. It doesn't have a single killer app for any territory.
I'd gladly pay for Wii Sports Resort HD so long as you bundle in Tennis this time.
Mario Kart on DS and Wii sold strongly for a long, long time. It wasn't a matter of 10 million in one month, but it sold well every month for the lifespan of the device. The 3DS had a bit of a struggle getting moving, but it seems to be capturing people's attentions now.
As for the Vita, even if it were half price it's hard to imagine it getting any real momentum. It doesn't have a single killer app for any territory.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Staying IT, I have some fears for next generation (PS4 and 720), or at least for their launches, for several reasons.
First, the prices. PS4 will probably be priced at 449.99, that is the only price possible to accomodate both manufacturing + fixed costs and the market for what it is possible, since it's a very powerful console, and it has a good social offering, while 720 should be 399.99, and that should be a good price again. But the problem is that 399/449 are high prices for the mass market, and since both the consoles will be sold under costs, it won't be easy for both companies to lower the prices (and certainly Sony can't lower prices too much given its situation as a whole, even if yen could be an advantage for this, if the exchange rates current trend don't change suddenly). But it's not just the consoles' prices: EA stated that games could be priced at 69.99 at the beginning of the gen. Seriously, how many people will spend 460, if not over 500$ for a console and a game? Especially if...
The big third party games: we're already seeing this with PS4, and it's very likely to see that 720 will see it too...most of the titles coming at launch for PS4 and 720 will be cross gen, with versions for also PS3 and 360. Not that those games won't sell at all on the next gen consoles at launch, because better graphics can be an attraction, but it can't be the only attraction, otherwise no one saw what happened when Wii launched. And what I'm saying here has a much bigger importance for titles like COD, Madden and FIFA, titles that have heavy online components, and something that wasn't present in the past: online communities, that are very big and built on PS3 & 360. Especially considering EA said there won't be cross gen online communities, how many people is going to spend that amount of money just to play FIFA / COD with prettier graphics but with a very little online community, without the people you usually play with? They can't and won't be hardware and audience drivers at launch. And above all, it's not that implausible that we'll see cross gen big third party titles for still quite some time, because PS3 and 360 are still selling and have very big installed bases, while PS4 and 720 won't have that for physical reasons. If next gen consoles will sell well, I can see second half of 2014 being when cross gen titles' amount will see a pretty sensible reduction; otherwise, it'll happen in 2015.
The first party games: just talking about PS4, since we don't know what MS is preparing for when 720 will be out. So far, we know that Killzone and Drive Club will be at launch. It's no secret that Killzone isn't such a big seller, but it's not properly a bad choice for a launch, and Drive Club is what I'd actually consider a VERY good software launch, because it's what I'd consider a bridge title, both core (racing and orgasming on cars' engines =P) and casual (teaming with other users wherever you are) gamers can be interested. It's a new IP, so it's not a sure success, but it's also true that launch is a great time for giving spotlight to brand new IPs, so I don't count it out yet. IMHO, a perfect launch retail first party wise would be with three titles: one appealing to the core fanbase (i.e. brand new IP or a not top IP, but still pretty known IP), one appealing casual and one being one of the top IPs, appealing to both categories (best example ever: not a 2D Mario, but a 3D Mario, that at this point we can consider a far better title for a launch). So far, PS4 has a core title (Killzone) and a core and casual title (Drive Club) that doesn't follow this rule since it's a brand new title, let's see what else Sony can release on the console at launch. So far, it's not bad, but the possible launch price is still a barrier (especially for games...69.99 is just too much)
Challenges from other actors: Entertainment is so different compared to many years ago, there are now way too many alternatives. Not just tablets and smartphones, but Facebook, Twitter, Netflix...all other ways for people to have fun, and all quite a lot cheaper than gaming, especially with next gen consoles launching at 399.99$. And obviously, iOS and Android gaming, that is so cheap. Especially compared to 69.99.
Stupid choices from hardware houses: Now, PS4 seems it's avoiding the giant bullshits we're hearing, but, in the same way, it's becoming more and more possible the next Microsoft console will really block used games and need to be always connected. If that happens, 720 will be the N64-2: a platform that can sell well just in America, while in both Japan and Europe it will fall flat. Those two things are anti-consumers choices that would be applied in an era where retail is still too important for console gaming: it's not like it was for PC gaming, where retail was almost irrilevant when Steam came out, and so PC market literally resurrected and it's expanding right now thanks to this generation lasting so much. Steam can go without used games because there are giant deals almost every day, also thanks to actual challengers like GMG. On consoles, instead, there's nothing like this: digital sales still account for 10% of total sales (and that's being generous), so it's impossible to see retail titles being so discounted on Sony / MS services. At least, free Sony / MS services, looking at Plus. So, no used games would be "balanced" by having games costing much less, but looking at the biggest SH involved, that's impossible, unfortunately.
I'm expecting both next gen consoles having slow debuts and slow first months (not as slow as Wii U, though, otherwise we're seriously fuc*ed :lol ), then the first Holiday after launch will come and in that occasion there will be the first real test for both consoles.
First, the prices. PS4 will probably be priced at 449.99, that is the only price possible to accomodate both manufacturing + fixed costs and the market for what it is possible, since it's a very powerful console, and it has a good social offering, while 720 should be 399.99, and that should be a good price again. But the problem is that 399/449 are high prices for the mass market, and since both the consoles will be sold under costs, it won't be easy for both companies to lower the prices (and certainly Sony can't lower prices too much given its situation as a whole, even if yen could be an advantage for this, if the exchange rates current trend don't change suddenly). But it's not just the consoles' prices: EA stated that games could be priced at 69.99 at the beginning of the gen. Seriously, how many people will spend 460, if not over 500$ for a console and a game? Especially if...
The big third party games: we're already seeing this with PS4, and it's very likely to see that 720 will see it too...most of the titles coming at launch for PS4 and 720 will be cross gen, with versions for also PS3 and 360. Not that those games won't sell at all on the next gen consoles at launch, because better graphics can be an attraction, but it can't be the only attraction, otherwise no one saw what happened when Wii launched. And what I'm saying here has a much bigger importance for titles like COD, Madden and FIFA, titles that have heavy online components, and something that wasn't present in the past: online communities, that are very big and built on PS3 & 360. Especially considering EA said there won't be cross gen online communities, how many people is going to spend that amount of money just to play FIFA / COD with prettier graphics but with a very little online community, without the people you usually play with? They can't and won't be hardware and audience drivers at launch. And above all, it's not that implausible that we'll see cross gen big third party titles for still quite some time, because PS3 and 360 are still selling and have very big installed bases, while PS4 and 720 won't have that for physical reasons. If next gen consoles will sell well, I can see second half of 2014 being when cross gen titles' amount will see a pretty sensible reduction; otherwise, it'll happen in 2015.
The first party games: just talking about PS4, since we don't know what MS is preparing for when 720 will be out. So far, we know that Killzone and Drive Club will be at launch. It's no secret that Killzone isn't such a big seller, but it's not properly a bad choice for a launch, and Drive Club is what I'd actually consider a VERY good software launch, because it's what I'd consider a bridge title, both core (racing and orgasming on cars' engines =P) and casual (teaming with other users wherever you are) gamers can be interested. It's a new IP, so it's not a sure success, but it's also true that launch is a great time for giving spotlight to brand new IPs, so I don't count it out yet. IMHO, a perfect launch retail first party wise would be with three titles: one appealing to the core fanbase (i.e. brand new IP or a not top IP, but still pretty known IP), one appealing casual and one being one of the top IPs, appealing to both categories (best example ever: not a 2D Mario, but a 3D Mario, that at this point we can consider a far better title for a launch). So far, PS4 has a core title (Killzone) and a core and casual title (Drive Club) that doesn't follow this rule since it's a brand new title, let's see what else Sony can release on the console at launch. So far, it's not bad, but the possible launch price is still a barrier (especially for games...69.99 is just too much)
Challenges from other actors: Entertainment is so different compared to many years ago, there are now way too many alternatives. Not just tablets and smartphones, but Facebook, Twitter, Netflix...all other ways for people to have fun, and all quite a lot cheaper than gaming, especially with next gen consoles launching at 399.99$. And obviously, iOS and Android gaming, that is so cheap. Especially compared to 69.99.
Stupid choices from hardware houses: Now, PS4 seems it's avoiding the giant bullshits we're hearing, but, in the same way, it's becoming more and more possible the next Microsoft console will really block used games and need to be always connected. If that happens, 720 will be the N64-2: a platform that can sell well just in America, while in both Japan and Europe it will fall flat. Those two things are anti-consumers choices that would be applied in an era where retail is still too important for console gaming: it's not like it was for PC gaming, where retail was almost irrilevant when Steam came out, and so PC market literally resurrected and it's expanding right now thanks to this generation lasting so much. Steam can go without used games because there are giant deals almost every day, also thanks to actual challengers like GMG. On consoles, instead, there's nothing like this: digital sales still account for 10% of total sales (and that's being generous), so it's impossible to see retail titles being so discounted on Sony / MS services. At least, free Sony / MS services, looking at Plus. So, no used games would be "balanced" by having games costing much less, but looking at the biggest SH involved, that's impossible, unfortunately.
I'm expecting both next gen consoles having slow debuts and slow first months (not as slow as Wii U, though, otherwise we're seriously fuc*ed :lol ), then the first Holiday after launch will come and in that occasion there will be the first real test for both consoles.
Again, I don't know what they/people expected when we knew a Paper Mario title was going to be their main holiday lineup.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
3DS, Vita, an Wii U are platforms that have huge problems getting 3rd parties to produce on. the 3DS is coasting by because it has Nintendo's full support and 3rd parties arent quite as important to handhelds as consoles.
As previous gens show, gamers go where third parties go.
As previous gens show, gamers go where third parties go.