Right, there is little to be "jealous" about in regards to AAA these days. Those shiny graphics act as an overcompensation for what they lack beneath.
Why cares, you can whine about AAA games not being arthouse shit. People buy them anyway.
Delusion? Whatever you tell yourself, moneyman. It seems more like you don't like the thought of these grand mega budget games declining in favourability over those "lowly" indie and AA games which are actually paving the way of future gamedevs. Those new gamedevs are seemingly not very willing to co-op with these large/legacy pubs too, which is sparking some "sour grapes" among a certain type of herd and people, such as yourself. There have been public instances of Sandfall interactive and Toby fox - both receiving multiple acquisition offers for their studio and IPs - but they declined them all. The next wave of inventive and creative gamedevs are wising up about the idea of aligning themselves with the AAA counterpart.
I personally doesn't care what AA do. I never talked about indies/AA games being bad or whatever - they are of poor quality but if you like rough gems - it's up to you to play them.
My question is why you want proper AAA to be gone and only your shitty quality indies/AA to remain? Why existence of "soulless" AAA offend you so much? It doesn't hamper your indies/AA gaming, there are plenty of games in those tiers.
Outliers is what everyone is chasing though (and is what drives the expectations and budgets up).
100M budget was absurd 2 decades ago, but the moment first game pulled it off, others followed. And so on.
You can rest assured that if GTA6 doesn't fail - that 1B budget (or whatever it ends up with) will become a new possible target for others.
No one will follow GTA budget as to follow GTA one should expect GTA sales numbers and no sane person will do it. GTA is clearly outlier in SP space and there is no evidence that you can get such sales for other games.
I think it's a valid question if the AAA buying player base is sustainable and not on the verge of collapse. Age demographics shifting and other factors are not exactly showing a 'this will go just fine forever' at the moment. But admittedly - that's also happened before, so we just don't know.
Age demographics is one factor, expansion of market in developing world is another. Western world playerbase for SP games shrinking, RotW is expanding both because overall playerbase growth and rebound of SP games there.
I can't take this sentence seriously...what is there to be jealous of? The reason more of this sentiment to lower budgets exists is the output from that sector has lowered in quality, it has lowered in genre diversity as higher budgets kick more kinds of games out of that arena, they cost more, and more often are coming out broken. You can be surprised people want to lower it, but I think the market will organically make less of these games exist, and the few that remain will depend on recurring revenue as live services. It probably won't drop to 50 million, but the days of 200+ million budgets are going to contract.
There are number of publishers those have no trouble with 200m game budgets - it works for them and I doubt they will lower their budgets.
There is a demand for such games, same as there is a demand for 200m films and there are always be someone to provide them.
And it's not like 200m is very common, only franchises that have strong name go for it. Average AAA should be lower, likely around 100m, especially for not established franchises - GoY is 60m, SB is 50m etc
We're literally seeing record layoffs prominently at larger publishers producing AAA. The budgets are rising faster than the audience is growing, new IP in AAA is less frequent, more sequels, and record amounts of remakes/remasters do nothing to indicate sustainability.
And most of those layoffs can be attributed to post COVID trimming of workforce.
Yet this gen only Nintendo is selling at a faster pace than last gen's machines making lower than AAA budget games, the other 2 are objectively selling less, more people are choosing to stay on last-gen machines, and more games that any gen are releasing still on previous gen hardware.
We know nothing of Nintendo yet, launch data coming out of strong predecessor does not define trend. WiiU also had strong launch btw.