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[Metallix87]

Mine are, yes. Superior versions of 3rd party games on top of first party games.

We'll see, but I think that once the holidays come around, a lot of people won't be so willing to drop big bucks on a visual upgrade to the game they can just play on their current systems. As for first party games, have we seen any yet that are system sellers for any of the systems?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Yet the Wii outsold the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 by a pretty large margin.

He did say gamers.

 

[Kyoufu]

We'll see, but I think that once the holidays come around, a lot of people won't be so willing to drop big bucks on a visual upgrade to the game they can just play on their current systems.

Not speaking for everybody of course. Just anecdotal.

As with any system, it will take killer apps/exclusives for the majority of consumers.

 

[serplux]

We'll see, but I think that once the holidays come around, a lot of people won't be so willing to drop big bucks on a visual upgrade to the game they can just play on their current systems.

I think we're heading right into the realm of the uncanny valley in terms of visuals. It'll be interesting to see how consumers react.

 

[Tenki]

That's a pretty large number actually, but even then that's mainly a result of the original model having lackluster sales. It wasn't until the DS Lite remodel that sales exploded to the insane level that we've come to expect, and that didn't happen until a few months into the second year of the system's life. In comparing LTD like that, you wouldn't even be taking into account the entire very first holiday season of the DS Lite.

DS Lite was already six months (nine in Japan) in the market when those 35M were reported. And DS had one more Christmas period. Maybe you should look at the numbers before making up statements.

 

[Metallix87]

As with any system, it will take killer apps/exclusives for the majority of consumers.

Agreed, and I think that's where both systems will struggle early on. So far, Sony hasn't shown an exclusive killer app for their hardware, and I think that could be disastrous for their system launch later this year.

 

[semiconscious]

I am assuming nobody here cries or gets depressed over this but being quite honest, it annoys me and pisses me off that this starting generation is like a shadow of the one ending and it sort of hinders my overall enjoyment...

awww ...

seriously, tho - with the way the world economy's slogging along at this point (& with no end in sight), i'm just grateful for whatever it is we continue to get, gaming-wise. in a world of consumers having an ever-shrinking amount of discretionary/disposable income, the fact that new toys aren't able to generate the general level of hype they were once able to comes as no surprise to me whatsoever...

 

[Metallix87]

I think we're heading right into the realm of the uncanny valley in terms of visuals. It'll be interesting to see how consumers react.

I think diminishing returns are the bigger issue, honestly. I'm not sure the average consumer will look at Killzone on PS4 and think it looks that much better than, say, The Last of Us or Uncharted 3, to be worth dropping $400 - $600 at launch for new hardware.

 

[Kyoufu]

Agreed, and I think that's where both systems will struggle early on. So far, Sony hasn't shown an exclusive killer app for their hardware, and I think that could be disastrous for their system launch later this year.

To be fair they haven't shown everything yet. Still have Naughty Dog and others to show their stuff.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

3DS does have third party support though. A lot of it just doesn't leave Japan.

The 3DS has plenty of third-party support. Japanese third party support. Nintendo handhelds have never had western third-party support anyways, so nothing's changed in that regard.

Yeah, in Japan. Its not doing so well in the US or Europe, and like I said before, for handhelds, especially Nintendo handhelds, 3rd party support isn't as important.

Yet the Wii outsold the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 by a pretty large margin.

There's always an exception to the rule. Wii didn't sell that much off of having a ton of awesome games. It introduced a new family-friendly dynamic to gaming at an awesome price. And when the appeal of the control mechanism winded down, so did enthusiasm for the system. It essentially died 2 1/2 years ago.

The 360 and PS3, however, are still selling quite well in most territories (except Japan, where consoles aren't doing very well atm either way)

It wouldn't surprise me if the PS3 and Wii end up within 10M of each other.

 

[AZ Greg]

This. If anyone thinks that anyone other than enthusiasts would be interested in the PS4/720 at launch are being delusional.



The truth.

We barely know anything about the PS4 and the new Xbox technically doesn't even exist yet. How do we know consumers don't see the value in them? Did your WiiU come with a crystal ball?

 

[lantus]

Well for me personally, I don't see any reason to get a Wii U when I already own a PS3. Other than Nintendo's own games, my PS3 is getting all the games Wii U is getting and then some. The controller, which is supposedly the selling point of the system, doesn't do anything for me. Nintendo's online system has so many flaws, it's like they're back in Sony's position launching PSN, many many growing pains and unsolvable problems because of their hardware architecture/limitations.

I'm perfectly happy waiting for PS4 to come out, and I think Sony will have more convincing reasons to jump into their next console than Nintendo has given us.

 

[Majmun]

What's the Wii U ww ltd so far? 3mln units ww? And it's selling 10k a week in basically all regions now. Maybe even less than that.

No way it'll reach 5mln units ww by november at this rate...
And it has no significant game releases until then...

 

[Metallix87]

To be fair they haven't shown everything yet. Still have Naughty Dog and others to show their stuff.

I understand, but I'm just going off of what we know right now. Besides, consider this: Sony had a big event to unveil the PS4, and they showed off what they did. If they had something more noteworthy for the launch window in the works, why not show that off to drum up excitement early on and keep the hype high? Instead, they showed off what they did, and excitement seems to be lukewarm overall, and that's a big issue for them. It reminds me of E3 2011, when Nintendo showed off the Wii U for the first time, and outside of a quick video of Zelda, nothing was really there to keep the gamers excited.

 

[sono]

I have a Vita and love it for gaming. I have never had big game experiences in a cafe or on the train before this.

How does the "below expectations" sales impact me ? - it hasn't really, I am also reassured by Sony's continuing statements about llong term support for it.

I dont have a WiiU or 3ds.

 

[SolidSnakex]

I think diminishing returns are the bigger issue, honestly. I'm not sure the average consumer will look at Killzone on PS4 and think it looks that much better than, say, The Last of Us or Uncharted 3, to be worth dropping $400 - $600 at launch for new hardware.

The amazing thing about the diminishing returns argument is that people were making the exact same argument going into the current gen

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47173
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48264
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45659

 

[Kyoufu]

I understand, but I'm just going off of what we know right now. Besides, consider this: Sony had a big event to unveil the PS4, and they showed off what they did. If they had something more noteworthy for the launch window in the works, why not show that off to drum up excitement early on and keep the hype high? Instead, they showed off what they did, and excitement seems to be lukewarm overall, and that's a big issue for them. It reminds me of E3 2011, when Nintendo showed off the Wii U for the first time, and outside of a quick video of Zelda, nothing was really there to keep the gamers excited.

I don't think excitement is "lukewarm" and certainly nowhere near the level it was with Wii U.

People have been begging for PS4/720 for a while now.

 

[FLAguy954]

We barely know anything about the PS4 and the new Xbox technically doesn't even exist yet. How do we know consumers don't see the value in them? Did your WiiU come with a crystal ball?

I don't have a crystal ball for the Wii U but its kind of dumb seeing someone say they Wii U won't sell an additional 2 million units in 6+ months, don't you think? I also think it's safe to assume that most customers won't be rushing to grab any handheld or console over $300 at first, no matter the hype. The early adoption will be up to hardcore enthusiasts.

 

[Rajack]

Everything will be fine, just give the new platforms some time to work up to their sales potential. You have to remember last generation was a freak of nature. It was the exception to the rule and what we are seeing this generation is more or less a return to form for sales patterns.

 

[airmangataosenai]

You know that GBA sold 31M and DS 35M (having three Christmas periods) in the same time, don't you? How can it be way behind those two consoles when 3DS is at 30M?

Because the DS sold 23 million in its second year? That makes the first year sales look bad (They were) but what made DS the huge success was the Lite remodel. Moreover, the DS hit 40 million at the end of FY 2006 and its 2007 sales matched 2006, how likely do you see it that the 3DS sales will improve to that level to match that number in order to prevent that already considerable gap from widening even more?

Same goes for the GBA, the SP remodel which constituted a full majority of sales worldwide for the platform was only available for 1 month in Japan and 1 week or less in the rest of the world when the FY 2003 numbers were posted (And this represents less than 22 months of sales in America/Europe). What can the 3DS do to spur sales to the level that we saw these remodels did? The XL so far has had a comparatively muted reaction from the public.

 

[Metallix87]

There's always an exception to the rule. Wii didn't sell that much off of having a ton of awesome games. It introduced a new family-friendly dynamic to gaming at an awesome price. And when the appeal of the control mechanism winded down, so did enthusiasm for the system. It essentially died 2 1/2 years ago.

I still think this is a very poor assumption. I don't think consumers got bored of the motion controls, I think the releases dried up and that forced consumers to move on. Third parties really dropped the ball here, since there was potential for big success on Wii with such an audience, but they opted to drown the system in shovelware for two or three years, and then just totally abandon ship when consumers stopped buying that crap. Essentially, the Wii became a self-fulfilling prophecy of market toxicity because of the actions of third party publishers.

 

[peanutbutterlatte]

3DS is set to have some of the best months in its history this year. Not quite sure what you're talking about. If you're talking of its early failings, then surely you're just agreeing with the idea that we proclaim death on systems too early?

 

[burst]

Who is going to purchase a wiiU? I just don't see a demographic other than Nintendo fanboys and Neogaf like hardcore gamers.

 

[AZ Greg]

I also think it's safe to assume that most customers won't be rushing to grab any handheld or console over $300 at first, no matter the hype. The early adoption will be up to hardcore enthusiasts.

I agree. I don't think any sane person thinks they'll fly off the shelf at $399 or higher. But the people who think they'll only be doing 57k during their first January after launch, like the WiiU, are insane themselves. I'm sure they'll do much better than that and be more in line with what their predecessors did.

 

[BlackJace]

I don't think excitement is "lukewarm" and certainly nowhere near the level it was with Wii U.

People have been begging for PS4/720 for a while now.

You mean GAF posters and other forum dwellers have. Enthusiasts are but a microcosm of the market as a whole.

Who is going to purchase a wiiU? I just don't see a demographic other than Nintendo fanboys and Neogaf like hardcore gamers.

Who is going to purchase a PS4 and Durango? I just don't see a demographic other than Sony and Microsoft fanboys and NeoGAF like hardcore gamers.

 

[Metallix87]

The amazing thing about the diminishing returns argument is that people were making the exact same argument going into the current gen

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47173
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48264
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45659

I don't think last gen and this gen are really comparable. People jumped the gun last gen, but what we've seen so far seems like it'll be a tougher sell as a "huge leap forward" in visuals.

 

[airmangataosenai]

You mean GAF posters and other forum dwellers have. Enthusiasts are but a microcosm of the market as a whole.

Isn't that kind of the point?

 

[Metallix87]

I agree. I don't think any sane person thinks they'll fly off the shelf at $399 or higher. But the people who think they'll only be doing 57k during their first January after launch, like the WiiU, are insane themselves. I'm sure they'll do much better than that and be more in line with what their predecessors did.

I disagree. I definitely think it's possible, because of more competition on the market and also because of the inevitable post-launch exclusives drought.

 

[CrisKre]

One of those 3 is not like the others.

 

[Chû Totoro]

The amazing thing about the diminishing returns argument is that people were making the exact same argument going into the current gen

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47173
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48264
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45659

Yeah and we all know the most powerful system sold the most.

Spoiler

NOT

The graphical leap will be here, that's not what I'm saying (so yeah you're right about the fact that there will have a big improvement) but power is not the main thing. Games are. And

Games doesn't necessarily mean 3rd party games. I'll choose Sony or Microsoft thanks to their first party games (Sony have the most chances to be my choice) and I'm buying Nintendo systems anyway for their games.
3rd party are a plus but most of 3rd party games are boring sequels... From what I've seen so far there are no 3rd party games on the PS4 I want.
Activision, EA, Ubi.. 1 or 2 awesome games per generation for each. So choosing a system after third party support is not the way I work. I choose for first party games and if the system's a success then it'll have third party support. It works this way, not the other. Third party are not tied to a system during an entire generation. They can make games on the systems which sells the most (Ubi sold a lot of games on Wii for example).

 

[Kyoufu]

You mean GAF posters and other forum dwellers have. Enthusiasts are but a microcosm of the market as a whole.

That's the audience they are after to start with. I fail to see your point.

 

[BlackJace]

Isn't that kind of the point?

That's the audience they are after to start with. I fail to see your point.

His claim that people "have been begging for PS4 and Durango" skews a lot towards enthusiasts. We alone are not a big enough demographic to make a difference in launch adoption. Sorry if I wasn't clear :/

 

[AZ Greg]

I disagree. I definitely think it's possible, because of more competition on the market and also because of the inevitable post-launch exclusives drought.

Using the PS4 as an example, since it is the only next-gen console we have anything solid on, where is this "more" competition it will be facing on the market coming from? PCs? Surely you don't think a larget portion of the people who bought the PS3/360 have decided to leave traditional consoles for iOS/Android? And the 360/PS3 had post-launch exclusive droughts as well. They never dipped down to 57k.

 

[Shtof]

What makes me sleep easy at night is that my real life friends are actually talking about the PS4... which never happened with the Vita or Wii U.

 

[walking fiend]

Among those, only Vita seems to be really struggling.

3DS, although not performing as good as DS, seems pretty healthy, already with a very great library of games.

Wii U situation will become clear in the next few months.

 

[Kyoufu]

His claim that people "have been begging for PS4 and Durango" skews a lot towards enthusiasts. We alone are not a big enough demographic to make a difference in launch adoption. Sorry if I wasn't clear :/

I think you are underestimating the size of the core gamer market. We're not just on NeoGAF.

 

[Heart Attack]

it doesn't afflict me as much. I'm actually kind of glad due to selfish reasons: cheaper prices.

 

[FLAguy954]

I agree. I don't think any sane person thinks they'll fly off the shelf at $399 or higher. But the people who think they'll only be doing 57k during their first January after launch, like the WiiU, are insane themselves. I'm sure they'll do much better than that and be more in line with what their predecessors did.

They probably will sell more than 57K in their first January but they also will have the problem of a completely new (and barren) library in the first couple of months. Where the Wii U failed in games releases in the launch window it made up for it by have near full backwards compatibility, a luxury that the PS4 (and probably the 720) won't have.

 

[Currygan]

We barely know anything about the PS4 and the new Xbox technically doesn't even exist yet. How do we know consumers don't see the value in them? Did your WiiU come with a crystal ball?

yet you seem so sure it will make better numbers than the WiiU. So, either you know how things are going to be or you don't

 

[Jomjom]

Who is going to purchase a PS4 and Durango? I just don't see a demographic other than Sony and Microsoft fanboys and NeoGAF like hardcore gamers.

You forgot the casual madden and CoD gamer who will either get a ps4 or nextbox. They couldn't possibly care less about the WiiU.

 

[BlackJace]

I think you are underestimating the size of the core gamer market. We're not just on NeoGAF.

I am most certainly not. You know what a large, LARGE part of the market is? The non-enthusiast gamers that were behind the Wii at launch. The "casual" market, the mobile and tablet focused market. THAT's a big enough market that shapes things. You can bet that Sony and MS are pressed as fuck to try and capture that market, and the enthusiast demographic that GAF and other forums are comprised of are little more than bonuses, I'm afraid.

You forgot the casual madden and CoD gamer who will either get a ps4 or nextbox. They couldn't possibly care less about the WiiU.

Oh, the Madden and COD that will be available on their already purchased system as well?

 

[AZ Greg]

yet you seem so sure it will make better numbers than the WiiU. So, either you know how things are going to be or you don't

Sales predictions based on past trends are a lot different than someone claiming the next-gen consoles have nothing of value to offer consumers when one of them has barely been revealed and the other hasn't.

 

[Jomjom]

Oh, the Madden and COD that will be available on their already purchased system as well?

Yeah because everybody is still playing on their ps2s and xbox 1s for their madden and cod fix huh. Damn man no wonder nobody bought the ps3 and 360.

 

[NotLiquid]

The amazing thing about the diminishing returns argument is that people were making the exact same argument going into the current gen

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47173
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48264
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45659

Pretty sure someone said it best in a thread a while back when it came to the possibility of faked real-time demos during the PS4 conference. Most of us have gotten far better at distinguishing the real-time from the bullshots. People aren't as easily fooled.

Similar principle applies here. The graphics are an improvement but so far most of it is in the details, not the entire picture.

 

[Kyoufu]

I am most certainly not. You know what a large, LARGE part of the market is? The non-enthusiast gamers that were behind the Wii at launch. The "casual" market, the mobile and tablet focused market. THAT's a big enough market that shapes things. You can bet that Sony and MS are pressed as fuck to try and capture that market, and the enthusiast demographic that GAF and other forums are comprised of are little more than bonuses, I'm afraid.

I don't see why you're belittling the core market. They buy the most games. There is a reason why every console tries to appeal to these core gamers in the early years. Wii was an exception as motion controls was an instant hit with people who never touched a video game before.

 

[BlackJace]

Yeah because everybody is still playing on their ps2s and xbox 1s for their madden and cod fix huh. Damn man no wonder nobody bought the ps3 and 360.

You're absolutely right, no one bought the PS3 for a while lmao.

 

[StuBurns]

I don't think PS4 or XB3 are going to struggle.

This is strange transition, because even though the Vita is very much a traditional generation leap, within the context of a handheld system, it's kind of a meaningless jump because of it's lack of support, and both the Nintendo systems have no sense of progression about them. 3D is a kind of cool gimmick, but the world doesn't care about it, and performance wise the system isn't impressive. The Wii U has the tablet, which is only impressive to anyone who's never used an iPad, and system wise isn't producing anything of technical note so far.

All three are just not interesting, and certainly not exciting. I think the next PlayStation and Xbox will be different, because they'll come with the new announcements of all the games we're going to be playing for the next couple of years. Even if the consoles themselves aren't doing anything interesting, and barely keeping pace with PCs, it'll be a turning point for the games, that's what matters.

If those two tank, I'm not sure how I'll feel about it. Sony make a couple of games I like, only a couple though, MS make nothing I care about. I don't really care that much about either platform from a first party perspective. The third party games matter, but I think given the x86 architectures, the popularity of Steam, and the 'struggle' of transition, everything is going to be on PC, so even if both consoles fell completely flat, and I don't think they will, I'd just focus on PC, which although I don't like as much, I have no issue with.

 

[Call Me Maybe]

The 3DS is struggling? 30 million units sold in less than two years is struggling? Is that how high our standards are now?

 

[SolidSnakex]

I don't think last gen and this gen are really comparable. People jumped the gun last gen, but what we've seen so far seems like it'll be a tougher sell as a "huge leap forward" in visuals.

How are the reactions any different? People saw some next-gen games and some argued that they couldn't really see a difference while others said that there was an obvious leap. Some seem to expect/want a PSone to Dreamcast type leap. But that's never going to happen again. In that situation we were going from very unpolished visuals, whether the be texture warping or pixelation on the PSone or blurry textures and fog on the N64. That was all gone with the new generation.

Watch_Dogs already showed that we haven't hit diminishing returns. And it'll show it again the second that UBI releases some current-gen screens of that game.

 

[BlackJace]

I don't see why you're belittling the core market. They buy the most games. There is a reason why every console tries to appeal to these core gamers in the early years. Wii was an exception as motion controls was an instant hit with people who never touched a video game before.

Actually, the core gamer does not buy the most games. Look at regional Top 10 charts. Not much variety huh? The CODs, Maddens, Just Dances, and Wii _____s demolish everything. There isn't much room for the occasional "core gamer" approved game.

I'm sincerely not belittling the "core gamer" market. Some people just need to step back and realize that we are the minority, not the majority. Publishers know this, The Big 3 know this, most analysts know this.