maverick40
Junior Member
Where are you pulling that nonsense out of? The next xbox hasnt even beem announced yet and people are saying they will struggle. Microsoft and sony are nothing like nintendo.
how much does it afflict you that next-gen (3DS/VITA/WIIU) is struggling so much?
- Thread starter sphinx
- Start date
Where are you pulling that nonsense out of? The next xbox hasnt even beem announced yet and people are saying they will struggle. Microsoft and sony are nothing like nintendo.
mambadragon
Banned
I actually think the 3ds's performance is similar to what we'll see with the PS4 and 720. The traditional video game market is contracting and all 3 companies are going to have to shrink and adapt.
I also just can't see game sales being as high when games as deep and well made as Dota 2 and Planetside 2 are free.
I also just can't see game sales being as high when games as deep and well made as Dota 2 and Planetside 2 are free.
The 3DS has plenty of third-party support. Japanese third party support. Nintendo handhelds have never had western third-party support anyways, so nothing's changed in that regard.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Again, it was Nintendo´s expectations that the 3DS did not sell as much as they wanted.
Yet the Wii outsold the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 by a pretty large margin.
Glass Rebel
Member
I'm a bit worried about the Vita and to a lesser extent the 3DS, especially in the West. Usually I'm PC > Handheld (> Console) and I'd hate dedicated handhelds to go away. Currently it looks like they're both moving into their respective niches and I might be fine with that but it's a bit sad that we'll probably never have a worthy successor to the DS.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Think long and hard about why any consumer would "upgrade" from a PS360 (the most popular consoles since 2010) to a Wii U, or why someone who uses a tablet on their daily commute would buy a 3DS or Vita.
All 3 consoles are redundant to Western markets, and launched with absurd value propositions.
All 3 consoles are redundant to Western markets, and launched with absurd value propositions.
sure, I would like the WiiU to be a smashing success, but unfortunately there are very few games to own on the system right now. I'm confident this will change anyway, although Nintendo's first sixth months planning is abysmal and they need to act, like, now
I have absolutely no clue about how PS4/720 will perform., but I have a very bad feeling about those
I have absolutely no clue about how PS4/720 will perform., but I have a very bad feeling about those
I don't think anyone would deny that the Wii U is becoming an increasingly larger blunder on the grand scheme of things assuming Nintendo can't pull off a fast one later in the year, and Iwata's 1 Billion Yen(?) expectation for the end of the year is going to have to be backed up by quite a lot of material for Nintendo to come out smelling like a rose. That said, I think it would be short-sighted of people to expect PS4/Durango to end up becoming a runaway success from the get go, and I have a feeling we're going to see a lot of similar arguments, though none as severe as the "Nintendo is doomed" ones, unless they really do go down to 55k as well.
There are a plethora of factors still left for consideration. For one the everlasting circle of "tech =/= demand" lingers on even to this gen, if not more now than ever thanks to the constant diminishing returns argument. Considering what we know, Sony will probably have to put a relatively heavy price tag on the PS4, and for them especially the Vita and PS3 launches still linger in their memories.
Then there's the matter of cross-gen and lack of game innovation. The current games we've seen for PS4 right now are really not that much to get excited about unless you're speaking from a tech perspective, and the franchises Sony put on display haven't really been fantastic console sellers to begin with. Infamous and Killzone will definitely be seen as big titles by Sony but is it safe to say it'll be considered the same for everyone else? All the other games shown on Sony's particular conference were multiplatform titles. We can say a lot about developers "being on board" but if cross-gen ends up becoming a prominent occurrence it won't really make sense for a lot of people making the jump, and the risk is that developers might focus on offering their experiences to the consoles with larger install bases if they don't have the budget to push tech. With all developers this gen being shut down and Ubisoft and Crytek surmising that dev costs will only become more expensive, the real losers will end up being the developers.
PS4 generated a good deal of buzz, yes, but considering the general consensus on the console has been lukewarm a lot of YouTube hits won't necessarily mean much. At the very least that's my take on it, PS4 has me interested but I'm far from excited.
But really, until Microsoft comes out with their machine who knows how this gen will pan out? There's skepticism when it comes to them too, particularly in the front of publisher practices and specs not being as good as PS4. It could go either way, and I hope for the sake of everyone that their consoles do well. I would hate for developers to confine themselves to a singular duopoly if someone ditches the race, and I like to think all consoles offer something unique making them all worth having.
There are a plethora of factors still left for consideration. For one the everlasting circle of "tech =/= demand" lingers on even to this gen, if not more now than ever thanks to the constant diminishing returns argument. Considering what we know, Sony will probably have to put a relatively heavy price tag on the PS4, and for them especially the Vita and PS3 launches still linger in their memories.
Then there's the matter of cross-gen and lack of game innovation. The current games we've seen for PS4 right now are really not that much to get excited about unless you're speaking from a tech perspective, and the franchises Sony put on display haven't really been fantastic console sellers to begin with. Infamous and Killzone will definitely be seen as big titles by Sony but is it safe to say it'll be considered the same for everyone else? All the other games shown on Sony's particular conference were multiplatform titles. We can say a lot about developers "being on board" but if cross-gen ends up becoming a prominent occurrence it won't really make sense for a lot of people making the jump, and the risk is that developers might focus on offering their experiences to the consoles with larger install bases if they don't have the budget to push tech. With all developers this gen being shut down and Ubisoft and Crytek surmising that dev costs will only become more expensive, the real losers will end up being the developers.
PS4 generated a good deal of buzz, yes, but considering the general consensus on the console has been lukewarm a lot of YouTube hits won't necessarily mean much. At the very least that's my take on it, PS4 has me interested but I'm far from excited.
But really, until Microsoft comes out with their machine who knows how this gen will pan out? There's skepticism when it comes to them too, particularly in the front of publisher practices and specs not being as good as PS4. It could go either way, and I hope for the sake of everyone that their consoles do well. I would hate for developers to confine themselves to a singular duopoly if someone ditches the race, and I like to think all consoles offer something unique making them all worth having.
mentalfloss
Banned
Nintendo will have a sizeable lead by mid next year as PS4 and X720 will need at least 1 year before a significant amount of consumers are comfortable with paying the premium for those consoles.
The fascination with next gen consoles is relegated to tech fetishists and real people won't buy into them until the first price drop.
The fascination with next gen consoles is relegated to tech fetishists and real people won't buy into them until the first price drop.
metalslimer
Member
As it's looking Nintendo won't even have a 5 million lead by the time the other two launch and if Nintendo doesn't have a fantastic holiday that lead will quickly evaporate as Wii u is completley bombing in Europe and Japan right now.
3DS does have third party support though. A lot of it just doesn't leave Japan.
Anyway, these things are multifactorial. There's no single bullet point that will win anyone anything.
mentalfloss
Banned
If the consoles are $400 - even COD will not be enough to get enough consumers to buy at launch. The other thing to consider is the reduced library of games. EA going from developing 85 titles to only 15 titles is a pretty big sign that third party support will not be as significant as it was in previous gens.
airmangataosenai
Member
How the hell is this a good sales result for a new handheld? It's not like we're expecting it to be able to maintain the same level of sales for the next two years so we're not expecting it to hit 60 million after 4 years. Even that isn't a particularly impressive goal and the fact that this is a high-end expectation (While still tracking way, way behind the GameBoy/GBA/DS) probably keeps Iwata up at night.
mentalfloss
Banned
This is exactly my point. As bad as Wii U is performing, it will still have a significant lead over next gen because mainstream consumers do not see the value in PS4 or 720.
never going to happen
Sony does slow transitions, that's the difference.
The Wii has been done and done two years before the Wii U even released and is now completely dead. The PS3 OTOH is still alive and kicking, with only half a year to go until the next system (?), and will continue to move significant hardware and software for another couple years after PS4 releases.
There's decent rationale behind wanting to make an explosive impression by pouring anything and everything into the new shiny thing, cutting off your previous-gen system at its knees. But if your new system doesn't take off then, it leaves you with nothing to go back to.
Chopper Dave
Member
It's not but neither is one or both consoles starting slow out of the gate. Just the possibility of a slow launch afflicts some a bit too much on GAF. The "No they won't/oh ho yes they will!" aren't exactly tossing me from one side of the fence to another. I'd like to know the cost of the machines and their exact launch lineups first and foremost but I do not. I would not be surprised to see consumers cling to their old hardware a bit stronger than they did last generation. Current gen dev support still has steam and the shine of better graphics might not be as bright for many this time around. It's difficult to tell just how much the mobile/tablet craze will affect the launch of expensive new tech but I am not so convinced it's as negligible as some may think.
I am content sitting back and seeing how things unfold. Last generation launches were certainly unpredictable and maybe the newest launches will prove to be just as interesting. I am not any happier by forcing myself to believe the Durango/PS4 sit solidly in either the smash success or bomba seats.
The semantics over next generation are getting really sad. It could not be any more obvious the OP is describing generation in context of hardware being relatively new to the market. I doubt anybody didn't see that but we really needed to play Law and Order: Useless Terminology Discrepancies anyway?
Metallix87
Member
The big problem the 720 and PS4 face, IMO, is too much clutter for the holiday season. 360, PS3, Wii U, PS4, and 720 will all be on the market this Holiday season, and all competing for your console bucks. Wii U will likely have some big Nintendo first party titles, like Yoshi, Mario, Mario Kart, and such, and that's it's unique advantage over the others. How will it fare with third party releases? E3 will tell us more, but I suspect the system will at least see some of the big titles releasing this Holiday. Meanwhile, 360 and PS3 will be getting most if not all of those big third party releases, and both systems could see price drops, which would make them more enticing to the average consumer.
That leaves the other systems, and what they offer. We know little about the 720's software lineup right now, so I won't speculate on it's prospects. Thus, let's target the PS4: This Holiday season, every big third party title hitting the PS4 will also be hitting 720, 360, PS3, and possibly Wii U as well. Thus, it comes down to exclusives again, and I'm not sure if Killzone is a strong enough title to compete well, especially if 720 drops with a new Gears or Halo title (or both). As for third party content, there won't be much incentive this Holiday season for consumers to upgrade, since the current consoles will be running all the big titles just as well, if just not as pretty, as PS4 and 720.
On top of all of that, and I know I'm in the minority here, but I think we've finally started hitting real diminishing returns on visuals, and the average consumer won't be as wowed by the new visuals as they were by the top of the line 360 and PS3 titles prior to those launches. System price will play heavily here, as the publishers have to convince the consumer that it's worth dropping $400 - $600 on new consoles for the better visuals, and that may be a tougher sell this time around.
Will both systems struggle as bad or worse than the Wii U did? It's possible, but difficult to say for sure. This is going to be the most interesting console generation transition ever, though, given all the factors at play.
That leaves the other systems, and what they offer. We know little about the 720's software lineup right now, so I won't speculate on it's prospects. Thus, let's target the PS4: This Holiday season, every big third party title hitting the PS4 will also be hitting 720, 360, PS3, and possibly Wii U as well. Thus, it comes down to exclusives again, and I'm not sure if Killzone is a strong enough title to compete well, especially if 720 drops with a new Gears or Halo title (or both). As for third party content, there won't be much incentive this Holiday season for consumers to upgrade, since the current consoles will be running all the big titles just as well, if just not as pretty, as PS4 and 720.
On top of all of that, and I know I'm in the minority here, but I think we've finally started hitting real diminishing returns on visuals, and the average consumer won't be as wowed by the new visuals as they were by the top of the line 360 and PS3 titles prior to those launches. System price will play heavily here, as the publishers have to convince the consumer that it's worth dropping $400 - $600 on new consoles for the better visuals, and that may be a tougher sell this time around.
Will both systems struggle as bad or worse than the Wii U did? It's possible, but difficult to say for sure. This is going to be the most interesting console generation transition ever, though, given all the factors at play.
Oh, that was your point.
It honestly doesn't affect me much. Regarding Vita and 3DS, I never was into portable gaming, I just (grudgingly) play games on portables when they are good and not available elsewhere.
As for Wii U, I remain unconvinced that its failure spells doom for the console industry as a whole. And if it does, we'll always have kickstarter, which most games I'm looking forward to are coming from anyway.
As for Wii U, I remain unconvinced that its failure spells doom for the console industry as a whole. And if it does, we'll always have kickstarter, which most games I'm looking forward to are coming from anyway.
fluffydelusions
Member
Yeah but hasn't lack of western support always been a thing on handhelds?
It's only about 5 million behind the DS worldwide at the same point in its life.
You know that GBA sold 31M and DS 35M (having three Christmas periods) in the same time, don't you? How can it be way behind those two consoles when 3DS is at 30M?
Which is impressive. The DS was something completely new and the 3DS has a typical Nintendo confusing name.
Silas Lang
Member
As long as none of the big 3 fail or stop supporting their platforms I don't really care to be honest. Just give me some awesome games and I'm good.
Metallix87
Member
I wouldn't go that far with the Wii U. That system has a lot of big exclusives coming from Nintendo, which could potentially turn it's situation around. Not that it will happen, but it's definitely possible, especially if Nintendo drops the price a bit prior to this coming Holiday season, when some of those big games are expected to drop.
The Vita's biggest problem seems to be, honestly, a lack of interest from Sony, which is trickling down to third party publishers and, in turn, down to consumers.
anon_mastermind
Member
Good post. I'm also interested to see what happens. You didn't mention the 3DS or Vita though, so I'll throw in my 2 cents: the 3DS is going to have a massive year and squash all doubt of its success. Pokemon X/Y is going to be absolutely massive. Vita will struggle but pick up some sales when the price drops eventually. It is in for a really rough ride though.
What am I reading here?
That's something I haven't really thought about either. A shit ton of titles last year were delayed from Q4 to 2013 which meant that Wii U had very little major competition. I can only think of Halo 4, Far Cry 3, Assassin's Creed 3 and Black Ops 2 that came out last year; two of the latter which were headed to the Wii U already.
There really wasn't much in Nintendo's space to compete with apart from the Black Friday bundles.
Microsoft and Sony are going to chew each other out when it comes to the console space, and it might not be pretty. Sony are definitely banking on getting out before Microsoft because they want America back, but the Xbox brand stands pretty damn strong in the west. It's probably going to diminish both of their potential numbers.
Diablo Rosso
Member
airmangataosenai
Member
That's a pretty large number actually, but even then that's mainly a result of the original model having lackluster sales. It wasn't until the DS Lite remodel that sales exploded to the insane level that we've come to expect, and that didn't happen until a few months into the second year of the system's life. In comparing LTD like that, you wouldn't even be taking into account the entire very first holiday season of the DS Lite.
JonathanPower
Member
Vita is not selling well because of the storage issues. No embedded memory storage and very overpriced memory cards are problems Sony really needs to address. If they managed to have 8GB of GDDR5 ram in the PS4, surely they can manage to make a new Vita model with 64GB of flash memory.
Don't forget that the DS already had 3 holiday seasons at this point in its life compared to 2 for the 3DS. And the 3DS is only behind the GBA due to a lackluster holiday season. Plus, the 3DS has a very steady stream of games this year, and two major hits (Animal Crossing + Pokemon), along with unannounced holiday titles (likely Zelda + Kirby).
It does not affect me one bit. By the way, even if the 3DS is struggling, I think it will be a huge success in the end. The year alone is gonne be fucking awesome (A lot of High Quality GAMES unleashed!!!!)
The second half of this year, we will see Wii U selling better, especially during the end of the year.
About the Vita, I couldn't care less. I sincerely believe the handheld market is just not big enough for 2 competitors. Nintendo in that segment is too fucking dominant.
The second half of this year, we will see Wii U selling better, especially during the end of the year.
About the Vita, I couldn't care less. I sincerely believe the handheld market is just not big enough for 2 competitors. Nintendo in that segment is too fucking dominant.
Metallix87
Member
I didn't mention the handhelds because there's a reasonable argument that suggests consoles and handhelds aren't really competing with each other, as while they're all game systems, they serve different purposes and usually target different demographics.
Indeed. Microsoft and Sony could very well strangle each other out of potential sales because of the competition, and that could actually end up being to Nintendo's benefit, if their holiday lineup on Wii U is strong enough.
Microsoft and Sony have one major weakness, and that's launch lineup parity. Call of Duty may be a big title, but with both systems potentially seeing it release on the same day, consumers may be worried about upgrading and missing out on playing with their friends if they pick the wrong system, and thus may opt to stay with their friends on current systems. Both companies will need killer exclusives and a TON of marketing to get the point across that consumers need new hardware to play the games that are also coming out on their old hardware, as well as convincing consumers that their new hardware is the one to get over the other's.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
To have a decent online service my friends are on? Yes.
Canis lupus
Member
3DS isn't struggling, its relatively selling less than DS, even in Japan.
Metallix87
Member
Your friends are all going to jump onto a new system at launch to play the same games they can play on their current consoles? You're assuming that everyone is instantly going to migrate to new hardware, which is a foolish assumption. I'd expect a great deal of people will be happy playing Call of Duty 2013 on their current consoles or on PC and not see a reason to drop $400 - $600 on new hardware for better visuals, and that will hinder early adoption, since people will just keep playing with their friends on the current consoles.
Mine are, yes. Superior versions of 3rd party games on top of first party games.
That's a pretty extravagant assumption (and one that I think is totally off-base). The Wii U wil absolutely sell more than 5 million by the time the other two launch. It brazen of you to draw such a conclusion when you don't even know the Wii U software releases for the latter half of 2013.
This. If anyone thinks that anyone other than enthusiasts would be interested in the PS4/720 at launch are being delusional.
The truth.
famousmortimer
Banned
It bothers me 0%. I like my wii u. I love my 3ds and vita. I don't live and die on npds. I don't care if the hivemind thinks they are doomed. The only thing I care about is playing them and the 3ds and vita especially have more games that I want to play than I have time for. The wii u could use some games but this isn't the first post launch drought I've lived through.