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[farnham]

And what? Games similar to Call of Duty sold abysmally? Actual Mario games would sell. Imagine playing Mario Kart on xbox live? With a halfway decent online infrastructure and huge install base these games might as well be printing money by selling on Ps3/360

Yeah joyride, little big karting, sonic racing all did so well right. Sorry but the audience of those platforms are not buying kart games. Its a substantial risk for nintendo to assume that the audience will pick their software up. And even if they reach their former numbers they would have to pay substantial license fees.

Its similar to making gta on wiiu exclusively and assuming it would sell since it sells well everywhere else.

 

[TedNindo]

Pikmin is very niche though, kids cant play it because its too complicated.

I loved the first one.

Didn't you play games a a kid or something?

Don't underestimate kids. I played civilization as a kid. I played flight simulators as a kid. I played deep and complex RPG's as a kid that weren't in my native language.
Kids don't only play angry birds and mario.

 

[Anth0ny]

Just matching the Gamecube's level of success, in terms of sales, is looking like it might be a best case scenario.

we shouldn't continue this business if our only target is to outsell GameCube.

.

 

[Aquamarine]

I understand how you feel, I love Halo and some of other Microsoft exclusives but I'm not going to pay about $400 for the 720 + Xbox Live fees, but that's my problem, that still doesn't make me want them to go third party, I'd love if Nintendo and Sony teamed up and make gaming hardware together and have all Nintendo and Sony exclusives on it so I don't have to buy two consoles but that's not going to happen.

And in my opinion calling the Wii U a sinking ship after 4 months is to early, you got to wait when games come and about a year to know were the Wii U will take place.
But that's my opinion.

Unlike the Wii U, it took until 2003 (a year and a half after the GameCube was out) for investors and analysts to SERIOUSLY proclaim the GameCube a sinking ship.

Look at this scathing article from 10 years ago:

But the company's latest console, the GameCube, has proved to be an unmitigated disaster, giving this holiday season the potential to become the Winter of Iwata's Discontent. Nintendo has suffered such a string of bad news over the past few months and posted such disappointing financial results over the past few quarters that many investors, analysts and industry watchers are wondering whether the onetime industry giant can hit restart�or at least pause�in an increasingly competitive video-game industry. Not only is Nintendo struggling to keep pace with its larger, better-funded rivals�Sony and Microsoft�in the console business, but its Game Boy division, Nintendo's previously unassailable monopoly in handheld games, is suddenly facing a host of formidable foes.

According to many experts, Nintendo's most likely route is to eventually follow Sega's lead: get out of the brutally competitive console business and focus on software. By doing this Nintendo's growth might become limited, but the company could become a profitable boutique video-game brand that caters to children, newcomers and enthusiasts. In fact, game analyst Hisakazu Hirabayashi insists that scenario has already happened. "Since around 2000, Nintendo was no longer a member of the video-game industry. Its philosophy and method are fundamentally different from the other console and software companies. It's not a loser only because it's taken itself out of the race." Every kid who's booted up Super Mario for the first time knows what happens when you run out of lives and can't secure enough gold coins: game over.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,557120,00.html

Replace "GameCube" with "Wii U", and "Game Boy" with "3DS," and you have exact parallels to today's sentiment.

Everyone proclaiming the Wii U to be so horrible THIS EARLY in the race...can't be good.

 

[JoeM86]

Are you joking? Taking out the cost of producing and marketing hardware. Nintendo games would sell phenomenally on 360/Ps3. Thats not even considering the money that could be made from XBLA/PSN ports of retro titles.

There is major money to be made there.

It really wouldn't. They'd end up with less money. Currently, they get the money for the console, third party licenses plus COMPLETE profits from their own games.

There, they'd have to give money to the console owner thus less profits, not to mention no money from consoles etc

 

[AZ Greg]

.

No doubt. I'm sure their sales target, at least pre-launch, was much closer to the original Wii than the Gamecube. I'm just saying, the way things look, they'll be lucky just to get to where the Gamecube was.

 

[Palette Swap]

Nobody. I'm just looking at it from a business standpoint

I really can't tell whose business honestly. The reason we're having this thread is that at this point, Nintendo has utterly failed to create value around WiiU. One of the reasons for this is what a lot of people perceive as a bad tradeoff between power and added functionality.

To put it simply: if they're taking a loss selling hardware that has so far failed to impress compared to 7+ year old consoles, it's their problem. The fact it is overpriced doesn't make them virtuous and it certainly doesn't help this industry. It just means they've made poor design choices.

 

[PhantomR]

Again, Im talking about the console market.

Saying this is the equivalent of talking about Microsofts overall profits and attributing them solely to the 360.

You said that Nintendo was either going to GO OUT OF BUSINESS or go 3rd party. That quote was in direct response to your exact words. Stop moving the goalposts.

 

[PhantomR]

Currency gains.

I know...that doesn't really count as profit.

Nintendo selling a bunch of their buildings off does, though!

 

[farnham]

No doubt. I'm sure their sales target, at least pre-launch, was much closer to the original Wii than the Gamecube. I'm just saying, the way things look, they'll be lucky just to get to where the Gamecube was.

Wiiu will be on the market for 5-6 years. Up until now it has been a disaster but id say nintendo still has time to do it right. However they need to do it right quickly. I think if they have no significant sales jump by next year gamecube level sales are likely.

 

[ringwaldhaze]

Yeah joyride, little big karting, sonic racing all did so well right. Sorry but the audience of those platforms are not buying kart games. Its a substantial risk for nitendo to assume that the audience will pick their software up. And even if they reach their former numbers they would have to pay substantial license fees

I think the idea is that if Nintendo's audience has no issue following them through their own systems to buy these games, they'd have no issue moving to a system which wasn't made by Nintendo. The other scenario being what? They'd all just stop playing games?

I'm sure someone could find some numbers from, say, the first Sonic game that wasn't on a SEGA system for comparison. Though, considering the quality of a lot of those games, it might not be the best example...

 

[Wickerbasket]

Nintendo isn't going to go out of business over this, that shouldn't even be a talking point.

The worst that happens is that the Wii U doesn't take off and they make their money elsewhere.

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

Between the latter half of the Wii and the beginning of the WiiUs life, its pretty clear that Nintendo is either going to go out of business or eventually go third party.

They need a radical strategy change to stay in the console market. They already fucked up the chance they had with the WiiU.

Iwata will be gone atleast before the end of the year. A new President might make all the difference.

 

[JoeM86]

I really can't tell whose business honestly. The reason we're having this thread is that at this point, Nintendo has utterly failed to create value around WiiU. One of the reasons for this is what a lot of people perceive as a bad tradeoff between power and added functionality.

To put it simply: if they're taking a loss selling hardware that has so far failed to impress compared to 7+ year old consoles, it's their problem. The fact it is overpriced doesn't make them virtuous and it certainly doesn't help this industry. It just means they've made poor design choices.

If they were selling a console at a $200 loss and it was doing well, they would actually be in a worse position than they are now

 

[farnham]

I think the idea is that if Nintendo's audience has no issue following them through their own systems to buy these games, they'd have no issue moving to a system which wasn't made by Nintendo. The other scenario being what? They'd all just stop playing games?

I'm sure someone could find some numbers from, say, the first Sonic game that wasn't on a SEGA system for comparison. Though, considering the quality of a lot of those games, it might not be the best example...

Well we saw what happened to sega. They slowly crumbled after going third party and now they are a former shadow of themselves. Same may happen to nintendo and that risk alone will make share holders consider that option as a last resort.

 

[ChimpanzeeThat]

Nintendo definitely won't go out of business, but they are going to be seriously hurt over the Wii U if it doesn't pick up.

No-one can deny that consumers and investors as well as publishers and developers alike, will look at them differently now. There's no excuse in this day and age for a company the size and experience of Nintendo to mess up so badly, but they have made bad decision after bad decision.

I actually think E3 is too far away for them right now.

 

[SmokedMeat]

I think not reentering the arms race against Microsoft and Sony was a big mistake. We're already at the point where third parties aren't bothering putting DLC on the games they do receive ports of.
It's really going to get ugly when PS4 and Durango arrive. Nintendo can't make a comeback without third parties, and with a current gen level console that consumers already own.

 

[InsaneZero]

Iwata will be gone atleast before the end of the year. A new President might make all the difference.

A new President can't make significant decisions about games that the Wii U needs immediately, unless the new President wants the Wii U to be Gamecube 2.0 verbatim.

 

[JaxJag]

Wiiu will be on the market for 5-6 years. Up until now it has been a disaster but id say nintendo still has time to do it right. However they need to do it right quickly. I think if they have no significant sales jump by next year gamecube level sales are likely.

I dunno, the Wii U, and this generation is out of Nintendo's comfort zone.

Next-gen a systems capabilities at an OS level will be crucial to a systems success, as will it's online infrastructure. One of those two things Nintendo has proven they aren't very good at (online), the other (OS) so far they are very barebones with (3DS), and just borderline bad (Wii U).

By Nintendo skimping out on a lot of staples of the current-gen like HD, online and a system OS that does more than just launch games, I think they have put themselves behind for next-gen. Least it seems that way so far with the Wii U.

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

A new President can't make significant decisions about games that the Wii U needs immediately, unless the new President wants the Wii U to be Gamecube 2.0 verbatim.

The way people are talking, Gamecube 2.0 would be a step up.

 

[i-Lo]

It's Nintendo. They have mario and zelda so they should be okay in the long run.

 

[Pancakes R Us]

Serves them right. This console was a joke from the beginning. People say it's like the 3DS again, so things will supposedly pick up...except 3DS' competition was Vita, not PS360 and the upcoming new consoles. I predict Wii U will be dead in the water here in the UK come December.

 

[Box]

From what I remember, back in January the discussion was fairly calm when people made predictions about how the Wii U would do in the coming months.

Now that these predictions have happened, I'm not sure why people are so incensed.

 

[Neff]

The console is a good value to whom?

To people who pay for it, in return for the tech they get.

But the tech doesn't mean anything without the software, which isn't there. Yet.

 

[Meelow]

Serves them right. This console was a joke from the beginning. People say it's like the 3DS again, so things will supposedly pick up...except 3DS' competition was Vita and iPhone/Pad/etc, not PS360 and the upcoming new consoles. I predict Wii U will be dead in the water here in the UK come December.

Fixed.

 

[saunderez]

If they were selling a console at a $200 loss and it was doing well, they would actually be in a worse position than they are now

Financially they would be, but maybe they'd have more of an install base and higher software sales and make that loss up pretty easily as they grow the brand.

 

[bitoriginal]

I've got faith in Nintendo. Wii U just needs a price change and some great games to begin to hit its stride. They've wasted their headstart so far though without a doubt.

 

[JoeM86]

Financially they would be, but maybe they'd have more of an install base and higher sales and make that loss up pretty easily as they grow the brand.

Really? Sony hasn't made up that loss yet from the PS3. It's not as easy as you think

 

[DragonSworne]

And what? Games similar to Call of Duty sold abysmally? Actual Mario games would sell. Imagine playing Mario Kart on xbox live? With a halfway decent online infrastructure and huge install base these games might as well be printing money by selling on Ps3/360

There is no "infrastructure". Xbox Live is peer 2 peer.

 

[saunderez]

Really? Sony hasn't made up that loss yet from the PS3. It's not as easy as you think

No but Sony are positioned well for their next console, where the hell does Nintendo go after this train wreck? What happens if the Wii U successor fails? They can't stay in a holding pattern forever investors will lose interest.

 

[JoeM86]

And what? Games similar to Call of Duty sold abysmally? Actual Mario games would sell. Imagine playing Mario Kart on xbox live? With a halfway decent online infrastructure and huge install base these games might as well be printing money by selling on Ps3/360

Or they could put it on their own consoles, enticing people to buy, and print even more money as seen with Mario Kart Wii which has outsold every game on the aforementioned consoles

No but Sony are positioned well for their next console, where the hell does Nintendo go after this train wreck? What happens if the Wii U successor fails? They can't stay in a holding pattern forever investors will lose interest.

And their new console will have the exact same issue, being sold at significant loss

 

[radioheadrule83]

Are you joking? Taking out the cost of producing and marketing hardware. Nintendo games would sell phenomenally on 360/Ps3. Thats not even considering the money that could be made from XBLA/PSN ports of retro titles.

There is major money to be made there.

I've posted this before but I am going to insist on posting it again in future if people insist on regurgitating the notion of Nintendo going third party...I've included numbers showing the INSANE amount of software that Nintendo have sold on their most recent hardware systems prior to Wii U and 3DS, numbers that illustrate perfectly why people like Bobby Kotick say you should never count Nintendo out.


If you are to realistically imagine Nintendo as a third party, there is just NO WAY that the hypothetical increase in sales of their own software would make up for royalty losses on third party software. NO WAY. As a third party they would have to negotiate paying fees to Microsoft and Sony and suddenly be without hundreds of millions, billions, in income. Why do that?

Your impulse might be to say: third party games don't sell on Nintendo, or that they can't afford a slow start or lower userbase -- but the truth of the matter is they do, and they can. Nintendo alone do not come close to accounting for these software sales.

Even if Nintendo returns to Gamecube or N64 levels, it makes absolutely no sense for them to abandon those software sales and royalties. Those peripheral sales.

And it makes no sense for Nintendo fans to desire they go third party either, as THAT REVENUE is how they can afford to make the games they do, and how they can afford the freedom they have. There are reasons that companies like EA and Activision make very safe games and bet on big blockbusters. They have to. They can only afford the occasional risk each generation because they are not like Nintendo, they don't have this scale of income flexibility.


Look at those Wii and DS software sales. They may no longer be leading the pack, but consider that those platforms are still selling and cannibalising Nintendo's newer hardware, alongside other things like mobiles and tablets. We haven't seen any big first party announcements for the Wii U yet, we don't know the dates or prices for the new Sony and Microsoft consoles, and Wii U is nowhere near a mass market price yet. It doesn't make sense, after four months, to assume that all of that brand appeal and the unprecedented level of software-selling-power has disappeared overnight. Think about what you're doing. You're trying to call time on Nintendo as a manufacturer directly after its most successful ever hardware generation.

There is more potential for crow here than there was with Wii detractors in 2006.

 

[enzo_gt]

Hopefully this forces them to start work on their next-gen console to compete with the PS4 and Durango early. Been saying it forever, the tablet gimmick was not enough, setting your bar at current gen consoles with something so transparent even the casual market could see, naming your console stupidly to produce market confusion and not novel enough to carry the console, and coincides with proof that having a 'core' audience isn't enough to make something a success.

It's hard to feel sorry for them when so many pieces of the console are horribly shortsighted and even the saving grace of software isn't even there yet. They're slipping further down the hill instead of gaining ground. They better get their shit together by E3, but IMO the console is too fundamentally flawed to flip it into something salvageable without hardware. If they don't, Durango, and maybe the PS4 if they announce expanded media capabilities (extremely, extremely likely) are the kill shots.

 

[TreasureHunterG]

A new President can't make significant decisions about games that the Wii U needs immediately, unless the new President wants the Wii U to be Gamecube 2.0 verbatim.

Man, this GameCube 2.0 bullshit is getting boring, really.

There's no guarantee this'll happen. The current gaming industry scenario now is completely different from 2001 when Sony pretty much had an iron fist and had 1 year lead. Wii U will have a 1 year lead, it'll be cheaper, probably a better installed userbase and isn't underpowered the way Wii was next to the competition. It's foolish to believe every single PS3/360 user will immediately jump for their successors, this didn't immediately happened with PS2 to PS3/Xbox to Xbox 360 and will not happen with PS3 to PS4/Xbox 360 to Xbox Next either.

By the way, people seems to forget Iwata pretty much killed the GameCube and created the situation everyone say all the time Nintendo should avoid.

 

[maverick40]

Nintendo isn't going to go out of business over this, that shouldn't even be a talking point.

The worst that happens is that the Wii U doesn't take off and they make their money elsewhere.

Where though?

 

[saunderez]

And their new console will have the exact same issue, being sold at significant loss

Yeah that's not happening this time, both Sony and Microsoft learned their lesson hence the switch to x86 and basically off the shelf parts.

 

[kitsuneyo]

Below the GameCube, UK retailers. It's charting BELOW the GameCube, with fewer retail space than the GameCube, fewer third-party support, lower lifetime sales, and a shorter lifespan.

IIRC, when Gamecube launched it was UK's the fastest selling console of all time. The thing was dirt cheap at about £129. It then sank pretty quickly.

 

[Dave Long]

It's waaaaayyyy too early to panic. We don't really know what Sony and Microsoft will be able to do with new hardware. They could fall flat on their faces too. Maybe worse!?

Nintendo at least has a differentiator with the gamepad. It cuts both ways. If they come up with some really compelling software by Christmastime, everything can shift.

 

[JoeM86]

Does anyone remember the Nintendo Direct just two months ago with all the stuff they promised and how EVERYONE agreed it helped save the Wii U.

Two months later, nothing has changed in regards to that (none of it was positioned for the first two months) and people are calling doom. It's amazing how short memory is

 

[Amir0x]

It's waaaaayyyy too early to panic. We don't really know what Sony and Microsoft will be able to do with new hardware. They could fall flat on their faces too. Maybe worse!?

Nintendo at least has a differentiator with the gamepad. It cuts both ways. If they come up with some really compelling software by Christmastime, everything can shift.

I don't think there is any conceivable way both PS4 and Xbox 720 do worse than Wii U. This is some unprecedented level of bombing right now, other than Vita.

 

[Wickerbasket]

Where though?

It's speculation, but it's possible they could make money off of first party software sales and maybe the 3DS if it takes off. It's not really related but I'm sure they make money off of merchandise as well, though I can't really say how much.

They've got enough money to ride out a bad console in any case. They'll be able to survive to make money off their next console. I think we all need to remember that Sega survived a few failed consoles before going third party.

 

[Opiate]

I don't think there is anything they can do. They cannot magically cause more software to appear on their platform -- most third parties will be highly resistant, and any first party software started today wouldn't be ready for years.

I don't think there is any conceivable way both PS4 and Xbox 720 do worse than Wii U. This is some unprecedented level of bombing right now, other than Vita.

Agreed. One or both will do considerably better than the Wii U. It is not too early to panic for the Wii U. This isn't just a system doing kind of poorly, it's a system failing spectacularly. In the US, for example, there is a big difference between ~100k per month "oh that's a slow start but we'll see how it goes" and 50-60k "this is selling like systems which have been swiftly discontinued." Wii U is selling more like the latter than the former.

 

[mrklaw]

Man, this GameCube 2.0 bullshit is getting boring, really.

There's no guarantee this'll happen. The current gaming industry scenario now is completely different from 2001 when Sony pretty much had an iron fist and had 1 year lead. Wii U will have a 1 year lead, it'll be cheaper, probably a better installed userbase and isn't underpowered the way Wii was next to the competition. It's foolish to believe every single PS3/360 user will immediately jump for their successors, this didn't immediately happened with PS2 to PS3/Xbox to Xbox 360 and will not happen with PS3 to PS4/Xbox 360 to Xbox Next either.

By the way, people seems to forget Iwata pretty much killed the GameCube and created the situation everyone say all the time Nintendo should avoid.

we should stop saying Gamecube 2.0

We just need to say Nintendo are heading toward 'non-Wii' levels again. They've not had high volumes on home consoles for ages now, yet still manage to survive. I suppose thats one reason they are relatively conservative on hardware, because they can't rely on 3rd party license fees to offset losses. The upside of that is they can survive on even low volume sales.

 

[SmokyDave]

Does anyone remember the Nintendo Direct just two months ago with all the stuff they promised and how EVERYONE agreed it helped save the Wii U.

Um, nope.

Two months later, nothing has changed in regards to that (none of it was positioned for the first two months) and people are calling doom. It's amazing how short memory is

Apparently so. Not sure whose memory is faulty though.

 

[TheMagician]

The most offensive thing about this whole mess is that Nintendo made mistakes with the 3DS and then made near enough the exact same mistakes with the Wii U.

That for me is unforgivable.

From the name of the system not sending a clear enough message to the system looking near identical to its predecessor. I can in no way comprehend what the top dogs were thinking and can only describe the decisions made as incompetent.

So so bad.

 

[H_Prestige]

If that happens nintendo has to pay a lot of money in license fees, gets a huge dent in software sales since ps360 gamers dont buy platformers, casual games and kart racers and does not get revenue from hardware and accessory sales. Nintendo has to do significantly worse than now or shareholders will not push them

Do wii gamers buy platformers and kart racers?

And peripheral hardware sales are proportional to console sales. If the console itself is a bomb (wii u), then the revenue from peripherals will be paltry.

The direct monetary benefits of being a platform holder are third party licensing royalties and hardware profits. Nintendo's prospects for the former are pretty much zero and they are currently having lots of trouble with the latter as well. At some point shareholders have to question why the fuck they're pissing away money like this.

 

[schuelma]

Does anyone remember the Nintendo Direct just two months ago with all the stuff they promised and how EVERYONE agreed it helped save the Wii U.

Two months later, nothing has changed in regards to that (none of it was positioned for the first two months) and people are calling doom. It's amazing how short memory is

Nintendo needs to provide some sort of roadmap with release dates. Right now it is hard to be confident in the system when there is nothing coming out for the system.

 

[javac]

...

Great post, I agree with everything you said there and you've stated facts I've always wanted in threads such as this.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Does anyone remember the Nintendo Direct just two months ago with all the stuff they promised and how EVERYONE agreed it helped save the Wii U.

Two months later, nothing has changed in regards to that (none of it was positioned for the first two months) and people are calling doom. It's amazing how short memory is

The internet news cycle is vicious. If things are going badly, every single misstep, every single piece of bad news is available near-instantly and propagated worldwide within hours.

Nintendo needs to provide some sort of roadmap with release dates. Right now it is hard to be confident in the system when there is nothing coming out for the system.

Yup. I'm giving them until the end of the financial year, then they need to come out storming and set out some kind of vision for the rest of the year. If it comes and all there are are vague promises and "please be patient" comments from Iwata & Co., I think everyone should be concerned.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

UK folks always hate Nintendo consoles.

Yes, it has nothing to do with the product.

Spoiler

it has everything to do with the product