Sounds extremely reasonable, and just depends on the games Sony decides to release on Vita.
Avalanche (Just Cause) - Wii U dev kits collecting dust, Nintendo is hard to reach
- Thread starter Flightmare
- Start date
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
No. But for the sake of argument, I'll bump it up to 50 million Vitas before the Wii U sells 10 million.
RoombaDance
Member
So this isn't really about Avalanche Studios, it's about their publisher Square Enix not being fully on board with the Wii U right now.
Flightmare
Member
No, it's not, Wii U is selling like crap, and the next big game comes in august. With Next gen probably arriving in november you can't expect it to reach 10 millions units before that...
Oppo
Member
you better be careful
Kotaku might pick up your insider info
what would the Wii U have to sell to hit 10 mil by November? 1 million a month?
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Or Youth may bump up the Wii U numbers to 30 million before the PS4 lauches. after all, YNot.
The balance is only surface deep as you state the case - it means close to nothing as the result stands. Because in order to get a game on Wii U, you still have to make deep compromises, same as you had to for Wii. Just because the Wii U is 'relatively' cheap - i.e., a system that came in at $299.99, it doesn't mean much, because they are already losing money on every Wii U sold, and the whole reason they did that was because they wanted to come in at a price they thought would be attractive to consumers. Instead, consumers still rejected the platform, it is now extremely difficult for Nintendo to have wiggle room because they have a prohibitively expensive controller that most of the market has already largely ignored for the rather tepid "innovation" it actually is, while gaining none of the benefits Wii had from its novelty.
So, in short: they're losing money on every system sold, the reason they are losing money is because they wanted to make a price competitive system that sold fast earlier (which did not happen), and the reason that the Wii U system has the technical disadvantages it does against PS4 and Xbox 720 was because it wanted to try to gain attention with a novelty controller that most people don't care about that made pricing strategics more complicated due to how expensive it is. To be even shorter: they literally failed to be able to capitalize on every a single aspect of their strategy for Wii U, and now because of that every one of these approaches is now circling back to hurt Nintendo instead. That's a pretty big problem no matter how you swing it, I think.
Also, I'm not sure what you're implying the "West is the Right Way" strategy actually entails, because Japanese studios across the board spent half of last gen languishing to accomplish even the most basic competence in next-gen development, unlike the West which had a firm grasp on what developing for these platforms meant. Nintendo could have spent time investing in learning so they could avoid doing the same thing themselves, but now they're complaining about being understaffed, shuffling around employees to complete Wii U projects thus taking them off other projects, having trouble with next-gen development. This doesn't sound like they were 'expanding' when they should have been - this sounds like they're admitting they had no clue whatsoever how to approach next-gen development, like so many other Japanese developers, and for whatever reason they had no idea that they should have been spending this time and money learning from other Japanese developers on what not to do.
Nay, Nintendo should have been using its warchest for meaningful futureproofing investments, but they failed to do so. And so now they reap the problems.
Just want to illustrate the difference between a personal desire and an argument based on the landscape of the market at the moment. This paragraph of yours is essentially your projection over what the appeal of the Gamepad is. The market, on the other hand, has shown the most tepid response imaginable to the device - because it's hardly an innovation at all, of course. It's simply an extension of the two-screen concept started on DS, something that already found its best expression in a handheld ages ago. So while I am not arguing that it may have the merits you say it does (It hasn't done much of anything special for me yet), I am saying the market doesn't give a damn. Which is really what needs to happen in order for a special device like that to really take off and carve out a meaningful niche in game development.
As I said earlier, Wii U is doing extremely poorly - to an unprecedented degree. That's always what people don't realize (or don't like to admit). Wii U isn't merely being doomed and gloomed because it's convenient and it's Nintendo, it is being followed by the negativity cloud specifically because it is doing worse than almost any major platform release in living memory save Vita. So, what all this at least partially suggests is that the concepts are not enough on their own to draw the fanbase Nintendo wants (a Wii-like fanbase, surely), and so they are either going to have to create that buzz with a new kind of marketing (which I don't think they have in them, given their atrocious marketing for Wii U so far) or with a new type of game (which I believe their 'old country try' was in Nintendoland, and we see all the consoles that ended up moving. Mario, Zelda, Metroid will not be the saviors Nintendo wants, much like they weren't for Gamecube).
This doesn't even require understanding the cost of components. All it requires is understanding that Nintendo actually charges $140 for the Wii U pad. That's only a pittance less than a 3DS is these days. So you may say 'nobody knows how much it costs to make', but everybody knows how much it costs to buy, which the vast majority of folk would say is "far too fucking much."
As for the "reggie confirms" comment, my point isn't that it could support two gamepads or not, it's that the Wii U will forever be relegated to an essentially one pad future, because most people are not going to spend $140 for a second Wii U pad, and most developers are not going to make games that require such an option because the Wii U userbase is already catastrophically small without further segmenting it into pieces between those who have one Wii U pad and those who have two. So what you have is a system that basically requires controllers from another console that doesn't even come with every Wii U in order to function in its basic 2 player capacity or more. This is already immensely confusing for consumers without adding in thirteen peripherals to keep track of.
Let me illustrate a simple point as a gamer: what does it matter if Nintendo is not bleeding employees this second if nobody is buying their consoles, nobody is making games for their system and Nintendo's own strategy is an admitted failure by the companies heads? The answer is 'it does not matter much at all.' It just means they still have their warchest to burn through, since they were so busy NOT using it to make meaningful investments with game development and expansion. Taking on a publisher role for some obscure Japanese title, while fine for you and I and some neoGAFers, is ultimately completely meaningless as it relates to actual 'expansion', because that's about as cheap as one can be when it comes to that sort of thing. It cost a pittance to publish a game and perhaps providing translation services compared to, say, buying studios outright or expanding team sizes (which Iwata, once again, has already said is a huge problem - essentially this amounts to little more than admitting to a failure of investment). No company sitting on the type of money Nintendo was sitting on has an excuse for this sort of failure.
The industry changed right underneath Nintendo, and they were too busy playing it safe to bother noticing. And now they are playing catch up with a system so critical that there appears to be almost no solution for it.
It is far past the time people stop blaming everyone other than Nintendo for their failings. They are where they are because they did not want to change and kept dismissing real trends in the industry. They stuck with what they did until the market no longer wanted it, and the problem I see is that they simply did not have a compelling idea to follow it up with. When you compound that with a huge mismanagement of potential investments, it just adds up until a damning whole.
Also, I want to underline in this comment of yours at the end how you seem to have a habit of collecting neoGAF as a 'single entity'. There is no neoGAF hivemind. There are just as many people on neoGAF that have fantastic business acumen (of whom i can assure you Nintendo damn well better start taking like-minded advice from if they want to survive another 100 years) as there are people with no clue how things should be run. There is no collective.
So as I said earlier, they have to spend money to make money. This is not to imply there is definite success from that, as it matters when and how you spend your money. There is never any guarantees in business. A business who will tell you that you are guaranteed a return on any particular investment is one that is trying to run a scam. If Nintendo wants to maintain its current size and not lay anyone off until the industry crushes them to death, that's an option too of course - then those people can look back at how they were not laid off for a few extra years with great pride as the company falls further and further behind its competitors until there is no way at all to turn things around.
Such an ideal can only work if Nintendo had zero competitors. Then Nintendo could perhaps play it safe and drag things out and horde the money they made until Kingdom Come. But they don't. So the less money they're willing to investment, the more Microsoft and Sony can capitalize on any particular advantage to move yet further ahead in the console space. It's already pretty clear Nintendo lost the third party war and the systems aren't even out yet, so I'd say they have to do something if they want to stay relevant in the console space.
I don't know how you would disagree with the 3DS horrible start - it was so bad they had to drop the price in an essentially unheard of aggressive strategy from Nintendo for the system. It was the miserable system launch lineup combined with the expensive nature for a gaming dedicated handheld combined with a less than original design document that put it where it did.
And even with its regained footing, I would say Nintendo is on borrowed time in this arena - the age of gaming dedicated handhelds are slowly evaporating everywhere other than Japan, because the number of people who care enough about gaming to really want a device dedicated to only that function are a fast diminishing group. They can just get gaming as an addition to their phone, internet, app usage on their smartphones and tablets. Gaming is simply not important enough to have this position for people in the face of new emergent market trends. Therefore, it is in Nintendo's best interest to adapt and invest in new avenues of potential revenue. And to that, it takes big thinking and big investments. It does not take what everyone expects - more Mario and more Zelda and more Metroid.
3D Mario exists on every platform since N64, and yet the only one that achieved status one success for a console was the Wii. Clearly, there is no correlation between 3D Mario and success of a platform, unless of course you think Nintendo is fine with always being in distant second or third place as long as they're squeaking out some thin profit. Of course, I don't think Nintendo themselves were happy with such a situation considering the drastic changes they underwent with DS and Wii, but it's your opinion ;P
Well the only quantifiable way we have to show how decent the current lineup is (including the horrible launch lineup) is to show how well Wii U is doing. Otherwise it's just my opinion on how bad the launch was. And as we can see from how shitty Wii U is doing, most people think the games lineup and launch were terrible - at least, bad enough to NOT invest quite yet. And of course, if it was games alone... but it was also the slow-ass OS and shit. Not good.
To me, your final point with a list of endless franchise whoring illustrates another point I like to make. These are not going to save Nintendo. Nintendo needs bold new ideas to drive innovation and new customers, not Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Donkey Kong, Nintendogs. These are old ideas playing to the same old customer. Other systems of Nintendo have had many of these, and yet have been distant second or third place.
If you are referring to Pikmin 3, that releases in July in Japan. W101 could come before that in NA or worldwide. Wii Fit, etc. some combination of Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Retro, Wii Sports, etc could release in Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, and Iwata has said a major ad push will coincide with these games. but ya, let's act like 10 million is out of the realm of possibility and talk about the Vita selling 50 mil
Flightmare
Member
Great post Amir0x!
Unless you expect wii u to sell two million per month from august til ps4 and nextbox launches, then yes, 10 million is out of the question
Unless you expect wii u to sell two million per month from august til ps4 and nextbox launches, then yes, 10 million is out of the question
CoffeeGames
Member
Sure, sales haven't been great, but when you see that the U.S. sales aren't that great compared to the other regions, yet it has been Nintendo's best market in the recent past (Wii and DS), there is a problem.
Look at the population of Japan, compared to the population of the U.S., and past sales of the Wii and DS. There is a reason Mr. Iwata is looking at the U.S., and should be.
HOPEFULLY, if the Iwata naysayers are correct (I think they have some points, but not all) then NOA management should have already shown him where the problems are. BUT, I think many problems are with NOA management.
NoA does have no say in what games are to be developed. In fact, Iwata acknowledged that NoA does not even know about games in development until they are pretty far along. That's definitely a problem with NCL.
I wasn't too surprised. If NoA had any say and if they had some capable people, they would probably try to cater to the Halo, Uncharted, or Call of Duty audience as that is pretty big in the Western hemisphere.
Shadow Hog
Member
It doesn't sound that farfetched, though. Look at Sega; there was an INTENSE rivalry between the Japanese and American branches around the time the Saturn was vaguely in vogue. Corporate miscommunication between continents like this is not new.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Lol. You actually believe Wii U can sell 1 million a month until the others launch? Lol please. It won't sell shit in May, June, July so thats three months. Pikmin won't be a big seller and neither will wonderful 101. Zelda is a remake. Mario won't be out until after the others launch. So yea, Wii U won't sell 10 million. You're living in a fantasy land if you actually believe it will get 10 million. Amd i'm sorry but just saying IT CAN is quite cowardly. Stand by your belief if you feel so strongly and are acting like we're fools for believing it can't reach that number. You won't though and when it doesn't get close to 10 million you will say 'GUYZ, I NEVER SAID IT WOULD!'
Great post, Amir0x.
lwilliams3
Member
I hope Iwata will personally talk to those companies to ensure that they will have support when they do push the Wii U harder.
CoffeeGames
Member
Except, NOA hasn't catered to anybody from what I can tell. Also, can somebody provide me a link to Mr. Iwata saying NOA doesn't know about games until they are far in development?
I googled it, but didn't find it yet.
Damn cowardly being thrown around now. lol getting pretty serious in here. Well I'll tell you what. it won't do 10, but I bet once we see Jan 2014's NPD and sales threads it will end 2013 with at least 7 million sold. it's already at 3.5 do another four, hmm I am feeling frisky today, so make it 7 to 8. it can do that and most of which will come during November and December. Bookmark it, if it doesn't i'll gladly admit I was wrong.....
But I won't be.
boyshine
Member
You're forgetting that 3rd gen Xbox is probably the only worldwide console release this year, and Xbox 360 has lost a lot of attention in Europe the last couple of years. There are zero hype/buzz for the next Xbox right now, it's all PS4 this, PS4 that (may 21 or official PS4 EU release info might change that, but it's doubtful).. and new consoles take at least a couple of years to start selling well.
Wii U won't stop selling because other consoles arrive. Wii U will be on most kids' lists for Christmas this year because of 3x Mario and a wider selection of kid friendly games (several Disney and Dreamworks titles are Nintendo exclusive) - including full BC for existing Wii library.. it will likely be the best selling non-portable console WW in Q4, closest competitor being PS3 depending on price cut.
I think if you want Wii U to be a "GameCube" with library similar to PlayStation and Xbox, you'll be disappointed. It will however sell well eventually, might even "win" the generation - but it's going to be for Nintendo fans and kids/family audiences mainly.
This is probably the most important point one can make about the Wii U. If anyone can bring new experiences to the table and pull it off well, it's Nintendo. I have no doubt that Nintendo's existing franchises are going to spur it back into relevancy to at least some degree, but that alone isn't exactly going to justify the Wii U's existence.
I personally maintain the gamepad is far from a bad idea, and that the possibility for great things is there. It's just got nothing good for it right now and it is making the "point" of the Wii U all the more confusing.
Flightmare
Member
Which is irrelevant... big youth claimed that wii u could sell 10 million before the other consoles launch. That's what I'm disputing...
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I can see 7 but 10? Lol. Checkers.
At the rate it is selling right now it will barely reach 5 million by the end of the year.
The only thing that could change that is if the perception that GAF has about Nintendo not pushing the Wii U with games and marketing until after the Summer update comes true.
Even so, if that happens I can only see it doing around 6.5 by the end of the year then.
metalslimer
Member
lol Pikmin and Wii Fit drving Wii U to 10 million for the other consoles launch is as likely as Vita selling 100 million in the same time frame.
God if it only manages to sell through 7 million by the end of the holiday Iwata will be outsted faster than than the Wii U boots up. They want to ship 9 million this FY.
God if it only manages to sell through 7 million by the end of the holiday Iwata will be outsted faster than than the Wii U boots up. They want to ship 9 million this FY.
Zoramon089
Banned
What "perception". This was literally said by Iwata. It's not some GAF concoction by crazed Nintendo fans
NoA doesn't have much decision-making authority. Decisions about releases and games in production are made in Japan or by people reporting to the Japanese company and not by American producers and managers.
For your other request:
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130430qa/index.html
Schnozberry
Member
Nintendo's target is 9 million for the end of the fiscal year, which is March 2014. If the software is good enough that's probably not outrageous.
Was this on a direct? I haven't really watched one since the January one.
They have missed a lot of their forecast lately (in the US at least), I wouldn't really say that statement holds much water.
metalslimer
Member
No it is. Until 3D Mario comes out the system is going to continue to tank, and even then we don't know how much that game will boost it. They basically will have 6 months to sell most of the 9 million meaning you expect it to sell better than the 3DS worldwide? Really?
CoffeeGames
Member
This is true for NOA, but not for NCL or NOE. What region was the ONLY region that didn't have a third party launch bundle with the Wii U?
Steve Youngblood
Member
I'm pretty sure you've made this argument before, but again, this sentiment makes me scratch my head. In some alternate reality where it got all of those games, I can only imagine Rayman resonating at all (given that it was supposed to be an exclusive), and even then I can't imagine it having much of an impact. Had this come to pass, I'm sure the lineup would be criticized just as strongly, as I think its main failing at this point is that the gamble on New Super Mario 2 to be the killer app and NintendoLand to sell the concept has not paid off at all.
While entire months of little to no releases didn't bode well, I don't think releases like Crysis 3 and Aliens were going to distract much, and it seems silly for me to think that Reggie or Iwata was looking at three titles over the course of several months and thinking that all the key pieces were in place. "Yeah, our heavy hitters are a ways off, but wait until they get their hands on the best version of Aliens: Colonial Marines!"
shinra-bansho
Member
10M by November is ridiculous. Even if you're talking about shipments. 10M suggests one thinks they'll surpass their fiscal year target by something like 3-5M units. Nonsense.
It's also conveniently a timeframe for which we cannot know the global sell-through in major territories nor will we have shipment information.
If people are going to make claims of expectations they should be doing so for ends of quarters (June 30th, Sept 30th, Dec 31st, Mar 31st) or make claims only of the US and Japan.
It's also conveniently a timeframe for which we cannot know the global sell-through in major territories nor will we have shipment information.
If people are going to make claims of expectations they should be doing so for ends of quarters (June 30th, Sept 30th, Dec 31st, Mar 31st) or make claims only of the US and Japan.
He also said they'd solve the 3rd party issue, the issue with droughts, the issue with online systems, and so on. He's a man of words, not a man of actions.
CoffeeGames
Member
He didn't say anything about NOA only knowing when games are "far" into development.
Full quote, "I already communicate very frequently with those working for our overseas subsidiaries, but I will try to intensify the communications with them to make their marketing strategies and tactics more aligned with the management decisions at the headquarters. I will also inform them about the products under development on a more timely basis so that they can take advantage of the sales potential of such products in their business territories."
Full statement is a lot more clear. I see nothing in that statement that shows me when NOA management does/doesn't know about certain games.
kids of today really do not care that much for Mario games
CoffeeGames
Member
Actually, NOA is part of the 3rd party issue, and I think it's biggest problem. If Nintendo is wanting more "Western" developers, how about NOA management go talk to them? When was the last time we heard NOA doing anything with a "Western" developer?
NCL and NOE had third party Wii U bundles AT LAUNCH. AT LAUNCH. What did NOA have? Nintendo Land. NOA should stop listening to "Western" analyst like Mr. Pachter so often, if they weren't listening to him and others saying things like "The Wii U will sell out during the holidays", perhaps they would have actually tried marketing the system?
What has NOA brought to the table? Nintendo TVii? Nintendo TVii?
As for the online issues, they did fix those with the Wii U, not sure what you're talking about there. The "drought" is a matter of opinion, but I'm cheap, so right now "less is more" for me. But I do understand those that like to buy a new game each month might have an issue.
Well I don't know about kids, but didn't 3D Land and NSMB2 sell very well in the 3DS? Plus NSMBU being the best selling (?) Wii U game?
Is there really a statistic that can prove either supposition? The only thing to go by is that Mario games sell better than ever and merchandise exists on a relative high.
Zoramon089
Banned
Right. That's why
MKWii - 35+M
NSMBW - 25+M
SMG1 - 10+M
SMG2 - 6+M
NSMBU - 2+M (over 60% of the entire Wii U userbase)
Saying kids, or gamers in general, don't care about Mario is probably one of the most baseless statements that can be made. There's literally no proof backing it up
CoffeeGames
Member
He isn't talking about our oldest, who runs around with a Mario hat, dressed up as Mario for Halloween, and had a Mario-ish birthday this year (again).
If you think that NoA is informed about products like 1 month after development starts, then you are wrong. If Iwata needs to acknowledge that NoA is informed too late about some products to market them in a meaningful way, they seem to be informed pretty late. And looking at they handle titles such as Mario & Luigi 3DS or Mario Party 3DS, I have no trouble seeing that NoA also only got to know about them a few weeks or months prior to the Nintendo Direct in which they were announced.
NoA has little room to provide incentives to 3rd parties. And even bundles, just as colours, need to be approved by NCL if I see it correctly. The marketing was terrible, that's definitely an issue that NoA needs to take responsibility for. But to effectively market the Wii U, some real experts would be necessary - I'm not sure whether anyone can come up with a strategy to sell that thing at this point.
I think the Wii U can find some success at the end of the year. Right now it's priced competitively at 200 together with the PS3. I'm just not sure whether the console's lineup can hold up with the competition, especially as the kids will want to play GTAV. I guess the Wii U can find success with families as Mario Kart is still a major hit when it comes to local multiplayer.
Moreover, I don't think that Nintendo is competing with Xbox Infinity and PS4. They just seem to cater to the hardcore audience that Nintendo gave up. Also, those two consoles will probably too expensive this Christmas. Kinect 2 could still be an alternative to families if the subscription model is a hit.
metalslimer
Member
On the bright side, Iwata taking more control over NoA should mean they are a lot more in sync with NCL. Unless he;s running NoA and decides to just not inform them of upcoming plans. The funny thing is Nintendo is so deathly afraid of their ideas being "stolen" which makes them so secretive.
velvet_nitemare
Member
That number will definitely get revised down.
CoffeeGames
Member
I never said 1 month after development. You are the one that said Mr. Iwata informed them "far" into development, but failed to show what "far" is, or that he even said the word "far". As the quote you picked, doesn't specify that at all.
They're a BILLION dollar company, if they don't have "real experts", it seems management is the problem then with not finding/hiring these supposed "real experts".
I see you say "NOA has little room", but I fail to see proof of that. Especially when NCL and NOE had third party bundles at launch. There are even rumors that Activision was talking with NOA about a Black Ops II bundle at launch, but that apparently failed (if true).
I think the Wii U releasing a year ahead of the other consoles puts it in an interesting spot, and hopefully Nintendo will have some more wiggle room with the price. And I'm not so "gloom and doom", because I look at past consoles sales/history, and see that even the original Xbox 360 didn't sale 10 million units its first year (not even 8, or 7).
That being said, I personally as a consumer/investor in the U.S., think that NOA is a big part of the problem.
Question: Did you see Japan's marketing launch ad?
Shipped. With pleeeenty of stocks piling up.