Avalanche (Just Cause) - Wii U dev kits collecting dust, Nintendo is hard to reach

big youth said:
The stupidity never ends with you. What games does Vita have coming that could cause this number of sales? Are you expecting an extremely effective marketing push that works where their 2012 attempts failed?
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Sony can showcase families linking up their Vitas in both the living room and in a park, playing games like Sorry, Pictionary, Othello, Scrabble, or some other game. You don't think showing a family playing a board game as a 3 second section of a 30 second TV spot wouldn't help get the versatility of the Vita across? With advertising you tell people what they want, then they want it.
 
shinra-bansho said:
If you're willing to make a prediction for when you've arbitrarily decided the other two consoles will launch, with all the ambiguity that entails, why are you so hesitant to provide a prediction for the other two periods I inquired about?

Is it because doing so would make you realize how completely unreasonable/unrealistic your prediction is?
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Because it's extremely reasonable
 
Of All Trades said:
Sony can showcase families linking up their Vitas in both the living room and in a park, playing games Sorry, Pictionary, Othello, Scrabble, or some other game. You don't think showing a family playing a board game as a 3 second section of a 30 second TV spot wouldn't help get the versatility of the Vita across? With advertising you tell people what they want, then they want it.
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I see what you did there and am amazed. Bravo.
 
Huff said:
I agree, a game we know NOTHING FUCKING ABOUT is going to blow the pants off people and sell 10 million wiius
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This will be the last time I respond to a straw man in this thread, but

If you are referring to Retro's game, we know who is working on it, indicating it's a Western focused, online FPS. A Halo killer, perhaps.

It wouldn't need to sell 10 million U's on it's own because some U's have already been sold, nor would it be solely responsible for it potentially reaching 10m, considering Pikmin 3 will help a bit, W101, Mario Kart/Mario, Wii Fit, Super Luigi, Rayman, etc. every game will help.
 
Of All Trades said:
Sony can showcase families linking up their Vitas in both the living room and in a park, playing games Sorry, Pictionary, Othello, Scrabble, or some other game. You don't think showing a family playing a board game as a 3 second section of a 30 second TV spot wouldn't help get the versatility of the Vita across? With advertising you tell people what they want, then they want it.
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The consumer has no idea what they want till someone gives it to them. People are stupid and fickle like that. Good advertisers are fucking geniuses.

tumblr_m306jgJcBk1r5cmwmo1_500.gif


Look up some shit on the pasta wars between Ragu and Prego, a lot of that stuff can be applied to the game industry.
 
big youth said:
This will be the last time I respond to a straw man in this thread, but

If you are referring to Retro's game, we know who is working on it, indicating it's a Western focused, online FPS. A Halo killer, perhaps.

It wouldn't need to sell 10 million U's on it's own because some U's have already been sold, nor would it be solely responsible for it potentially reaching 10m, considering Pikmin 3 will help a bit, W101, Mario Kart/Mario, Wii Fit, Super Luigi, Rayman, etc. every game will help.
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A Halo killer perhaps? You truly are the king of hypotheticals. Holy shit.
 
shinra-bansho said:
If you're willing to make a prediction for when you've arbitrarily decided the other two consoles will launch, with all the ambiguity that entails, why are you so hesitant to provide a prediction for the other two periods I inquired about?

Is it because doing so would make you realize how completely unreasonable/unrealistic your prediction is?
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....but I clearly said that most sales would be concentrated in Q4, during holiday months, when big games are releasing, and Nintendo gives the console a huge marketing push.
 
Come on if the guy is predicting 10 million for Wii U, surely he can predict Retro's next game will be a Halo killer with some certitude! ;)
 
big youth said:
This will be the last time I respond to a straw man in this thread, but

If you are referring to Retro's game, we know who is working on it, indicating it's a Western focused, online FPS. A Halo killer, perhaps.

It wouldn't need to sell 10 million U's on it's own because some U's have already been sold, nor would it be solely responsible for it potentially reaching 10m, considering Pikmin 3 will help a bit, W101, Mario Kart/Mario, Wii Fit, Super Luigi, Rayman, etc. every game will help.
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We don't know this.

Their last game was a 2D platformer.
 
There is no chance in hell Nintendo is hitting that 9 million units shipped goal by March 31, 2014. A price drop would help, but then they miss their 100 billion yen operating profit goal. So they're fucked either way.

They'll continue to ship the same pathetic numbers they've been shipping until August, since no games will be coming out until then.

Pikmin isn't going to sell shit. Same with Wonderful 101 and Bayo 2 if it's out this year. Wind Waker HD, unfortunately, won't help much either. Same with Retro's game. I think the Wii ____ brand is totally fucking dead, and no one wants another Wii Fit balance board gathering dust in their closet. Smash Bros is out late 2014 at the earliest, probably early 2015.

I'm pretty confident that 3D Mario and Mario Kart will spike numbers temporarily. But it doesn't help that these games would likely launch in November, the same time Microsoft and Sony are putting out their new platforms. Assuming they actually market these things at all (unlike Nintendo's effort with the Wii U last Fall), I could see the games having some of their thunder stolen by the new console launches.

Honestly, it's looking like Gamecube all over again, sales wise. 3D Mario and Mario Kart didn't really help boost Gamecube sales that much. I think Nintendo would be lucky to ship 5 million Wii Us by April 2014.
 
Of All Trades said:
Sony can showcase families linking up their Vitas in both the living room and in a park, playing games like Sorry, Pictionary, Othello, Scrabble, or some other game. You don't think showing a family playing a board game as a 3 second section of a 30 second TV spot wouldn't help get the versatility of the Vita across? With advertising you tell people what they want, then they want it.
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Heh well done.
 
big youth said:
....but I clearly said that most sales would be concentrated in Q4, during holiday months, when big games are releasing, and Nintendo gives the console a huge marketing push.
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So you believe the bulk of 6.55M units will be shipped in a single month in Q4, again on the assumption that neither Sony or MS end up releasing their systems in October?

How exactly does that make your prediction plausible or reasonable?

Does that negate the existence of FYQ1 and FYQ2? Or the 1M units currently in the retail channel? Does it change the cumulative number needed for the period, through to when you've arbitrarily decided that the other two systems will launch, being 6.55M? Or that it would mean a massive underestimating on Nintendo's part with their forecasting, when of late they've been notorious for overestimating?

Here I'll phrase the question in another way, how many of those 6.55M units are you expecting Nintendo will ship in October 2013, prior to the other next gen systems launches?
 
I'm calling it now Retro's next game will be an FPS graphical showcase that will outdo BF3 whilst simultaneously dethroning COD and Halo. This will cause the WiiU's sales to spike so much that Nintendo will explode with all the money and then everyone's wiiU's will melt because lol it's underpowered. Nintendo will then go bankrupt from all the warranty repairs forcing them to go third party.


This is the only scenario that would make everyone happy.
 
Anth0ny said:
There is no chance in hell Nintendo is hitting that 9 million units shipped goal by March 31, 2014. A price drop would help, but then they miss their 100 billion yen operating profit goal. So they're fucked either way.
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That's not true. The yen has weakened every month since the Wii U launch against the Euro and Dollar. They could cut the price in the US by 50 dollars or more and not lose any more money than they were at launch. In fact, I would think that is probably the plan.
 
big youth said:
I never predicted 10 million for Wii U
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v

big youth said:
They're could have 10+ million Wii U's sold before Microsoft or Sony launch their next systems.
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big youth said:
nor did I claim to know what Retro's next game is.
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big youth said:
If you are referring to Retro's game, we know who is working on it, indicating it's a Western focused, online FPS. A Halo killer, perhaps.
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Your phrasing made it seem like you were sure on this regardless of true actual knowledge (cause no one knows).
 
I remember when I was a big youth. So full of faith that Nintendo would turn the corner, do the right things, do the obvious things. I remember those days, arguing with Amir0x, so sure he didn't know what he was talking about when it came to Nintendo. I remember...

Now I'm just a big old man.
 
CoffeeGames said:
So, if Nintendo is using NPD numbers, and NPD numbers reflect "sold" to customers, not "sold to retailers", then what I said remains.
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I'm not sure what you're confused about.

Nintendo are not using NPD data in their earnings release. The earnings release numbers are the number of units they have sold-in to the retail channel.

Nintendo provide graphs of NPD etc. data in their investor presentation. These numbers are not the same as their earnings release numbers.
 
shinra-bansho said:
So you believe the bulk of 6.55M units will be shipped in a single month in Q4, again on the assumption that neither Sony or MS end up releasing their systems in October?

How exactly does that make your prediction plausible or reasonable?

Does that negate the existence of FYQ1 and FYQ2? Or the 1M units currently in the retail channel? Does it change the cumulative number needed for the period, through to when you've arbitrarily decided that the other two systems will launch, being 6.55M? Or that it would mean a massive underestimating on Nintendo's part with their forecasting, when of late they've been notorious for overestimating?

Here I'll phrase the question in another way, how many of those 6.55M units are you expecting Nintendo will ship in October 2013, prior to the other next gen systems launches?
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How many more times can it be said? I don't EXPECT any of this to happen. I gave my high end estimate, and what this means is the number of units sold will likely be lower, but no higher. I EXPECT that 10m is the highest number of Wii U's that could be sold by the time we see Sony or Microsoft's next consoles. I don't care to get into specifics about a hypothetical release schedule, hypothetical unannounced games, price drops, ad's, etc. There are a ton of variables that could work in Wii U's favor.

I'm curious what numbers you guys would guess is the high end. Instead of 6.55...maybe 4? daamnn you're right I was off in la la land with my estimate.
 
big youth said:
This will be the last time I respond to a straw man in this thread, but

If you are referring to Retro's game, we know who is working on it, indicating it's a Western focused, online FPS. A Halo killer, perhaps.

It wouldn't need to sell 10 million U's on it's own because some U's have already been sold, nor would it be solely responsible for it potentially reaching 10m, considering Pikmin 3 will help a bit, W101, Mario Kart/Mario, Wii Fit, Super Luigi, Rayman, etc. every game will help.
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Wait what? When/how did we determine Retro's game is an online FPS?
 
Fandangox said:
v



Your phrasing made it seem like you were sure on this regardless of true actual knowledge (cause no one knows).
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Thank you for proving my point. key words there are "could" and "indicating"

prag16 said:
Wait what? When/how did we determine Retro's game is an online FPS?
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We haven't done anything, I've looked at who Retro has hired in the past 2 years and came to my own conclusion, which is they MIGHT be working on a Halo killer type game, in other words a Western focused FPS/TPS game with online play.
 
big youth said:
How many more times can it be said? I don't EXPECT any of this to happen. I gave my high end estimate, and what this means is the number of units sold will likely be lower, but no higher. I EXPECT that 10m is the highest number of Wii U's that could be sold by the time we see Sony or Microsoft's next consoles. I don't care to get into specifics about a hypothetical release schedule, hypothetical unannounced games, price drops, ad's, etc. There are a ton of variables that could work in Wii U's favor.

I'm curious what numbers you guys would guess is the high end. Instead of 6.55...maybe 4? daamnn you're right I was off in la la land with my estimate.
Click to expand...

'I don't expect it to happen but Vita COULD sell 100 million by next year! I don't think it will but it COULD!'

Yyyyyea.

Nintendo will he lucky to hit 7 million by October.
 
big youth said:
How many more times can it be said? I don't EXPECT any of this to happen. I gave my high end estimate, and what this means is the number of units sold will likely be lower, but no higher. I EXPECT that 10m is the highest number of Wii U's that could be sold by the time we see Sony or Microsoft's next consoles. I don't care to get into specifics about a hypothetical release schedule, hypothetical unannounced games, price drops, ad's, etc. There are a ton of variables that could work in Wii U's favor.

I'm curious what numbers you guys would guess is the high end. Instead of 6.55...maybe 4? daamnn you're right I was off in la la land with my estimate.
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And people argued why it would never happen in this lifetime.

That was it. Regardless of what you truly expect you still gave a number as a possibility, people said why that number was not possible. End of story.

big youth said:
Thank you for proving my point. key words there are "could" and "indicating"
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All you are doing is avoiding to use counter arguments simply because "I don't really THINK it will happen" "It was an estimate" "COULD POSSIBLE BE" So it doesn't count.

We are just arguing your hypothetical scenarios irregardless of how much you actually believe in them. You are still posting them, i.e you are leaving them open to be argued against.
 
Massuh Chief be shittin dat Spartan power armour.

I assume he must have some sort of waste disposal mechanism inside that thing at least.
 
ClovingWestbrook said:
'I don't expect it to happen but Vita COULD sell 100 million by next year! I don't think it will but it COULD!'

Yyyyyea.

Nintendo will he lucky to hit 7 million by October.
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Who's going to run out and buy a Wii-U for the titles we know of? Most people who are anticipating the fall line-up either own the console or make up a very small minority of people. Of the games we know, only Mario Kart will move that needle really and how long would that momentum even last? I see no bright future for the Wii-U in terms of sales and financial gain for Nintendo. I'm just hoping it gets the software to justify a purchase from myself.
 
big youth said:
Thank you for proving my point. key words there are "could" and "indicating"


We haven't done anything, I've looked at who Retro has hired in the past 2 years and came to my own conclusion, which is they MIGHT be working on a Halo killer type game, in other words a Western focused FPS/TPS game with online play.
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You best be prepared for the late quoting your going to get after this E3
 
Amirox, I wonder why you think that it's down to Nintendo to have to innovate rather than just release good games from their franchises to be successful?

Obviously they made critical mistakes with the Wii U as you so eloquently outlined in your post.

But...

What are Microsoft and Sony doing to innovate with their new systems? They are doing nothing to innovate, they are simply iterating on their existing concepts and will most likely be trundling out the same old shit but now with more polygons and in 1080p.

What do you think would have happened if Nintendo decided to delay the Wii U and made a system with parity to the next gen twins? I assume it would have been another Gamecube.

I just don't think there is room in the industry anymore for 3 platforms.
 
big youth said:
How many more times can it be said? I don't EXPECT any of this to happen. I gave my high end estimate, and what this means is the number of units sold will likely be lower, but no higher. I EXPECT that 10m is the highest number of Wii U's that could be sold by the time we see Sony or Microsoft's next consoles. I don't care to get into specifics about a hypothetical release schedule, hypothetical unannounced games, price drops, ad's, etc. There are a ton of variables that could work in Wii U's favor.

I'm curious what numbers you guys would guess is the high end. Instead of 6.55...maybe 4? daamnn you're right I was off in la la land with my estimate.
Click to expand...
You wrote 10M+, that doesn't imply a high end estimate. You also wrote it was apparently an "extremely reasonable" expectation. It implies plausibility and you've yet to elaborate on how exactly it's plausible. A break down of that estimate would provide insight into whether it's plausible.

Why the reluctance to break down a prediction, even a "high end" one, when the prediction has already been made?

What is your "mid-range" estimate then?

Look how easy it is:
Given the amount of Wii U supply still in the retail channel I expect shipment for FYQ1 will be similar to last FYQ4, generously 0.5M units.

Sales could pick up, I suppose, although I don't expect it in the July to September quarter. A generous estimate would be a doubling of shipments to retailers so 1M units.

That leads to the conclusion that 10M units is an impossibility as the single month of October is not going to see 5M units shipped.

If sales do pick up significantly and retailers are given a lot of leeway for Black Friday in the US as well, then 1-2M in October in preparation would be plausible I suppose.

These are generous estimates.
 
Surfheart said:
Amirox, I wonder why you think that it's down to Nintendo to have to innovate rather than just release good games from their franchises to be successful?

Obviously they made critical mistakes with the Wii U as you so eloquently outlined in your post.

But...

What are Microsoft and Sony doing to innovate with their new systems? They are doing nothing to innovate, they are simply iterating on their existing concepts and will most likely be trundling out the same old shit but now with more polygons and in 1080p.

What do you think would have happened if Nintendo decided to delay the Wii U and made a system with parity to the next gen twins? I assume it would have been another Gamecube.

I just don't think there is room in the industry anymore for 3 platforms.
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If they continue to market their platforms primarily to children and families, then no, reaching parity won't solve the problem.
 
What's going on in this thread? :)

Avalanche isn't even a big developer...Just Cause I was ok, I only played it for a while to absorb the beautiful graphics, but the game itself was mediocre. Just Cause 2 was awesome! Finally that 2D vehicle shooter game they made was rather forgettable.

Nintendo should try to get GTAV on Wii U, that will be bigger than both Just Cause 3 and Mad Max combined.
 
AzaK said:
You're really Iwata and so you know what you have coming and that includes GTA exclusive, an epic SkyRim destroying RPG that looks phenomenal and a Pokemon Free to Play MMO with micro transactions?
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The last one may be a possibility at some point. Honestly, Nintendo really does need a Pokemon MMO with NFC cards and micro transactions to turn things around.
 
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