10/10. Perfectly captures Nintendo's shenanigans.
Avalanche (Just Cause) - Wii U dev kits collecting dust, Nintendo is hard to reach
- Thread starter Flightmare
- Start date
10/10. Perfectly captures Nintendo's shenanigans.
ElectricKaibutsu
Member
YouTube? Does Amir0x make YouTube videos? Does he dissect video game news? I'd watch that...
shinra-bansho
Member
NSMBU being at 2M would be more like 80% of the sell through user base...
Flightmare
Member
I believe it's 2m shipped, not sold
I will never fucking forget that. I was fucking dying in that thread.
CoffeeGames
Member
shinra-bansho
Member
All numbers in earnings releases are sold to retail (shipped) unless otherwise specified. The difference becomes less distinct as a platform or game gets older, but early on there can be divergence.
Flightmare
Member
Sold for nintendo is the same as shipped, they also report 3,4m wii u's sold
EDIT: Beaten
...No, it wouldn't be 1 million a month, it would be the leadup to the holidays that could see big sales, coinciding with big game releases and an advertising push. "Mario won't be out until after the others launch" ....so you must know something we don't? The reality is we know very little in terms of release dates.
You're so desperate, so embarrassed, that you're trying to twist my words. It's the cheapest debate tactic there is. I stand by my original statement, not whatever statement you are trying to coerce me into backing.
metalslimer
Member
Coming from someone who said Wii U could be at 10 million by this holiday, I don't think he is the one who should be embarrassed. I guess checkers might have more appeal than I thought....
He would be an improvement.
Yeah, this is just kind of sad at this point. Wii U has absolutely no chance of reaching 10 million by the end of this year. Especially not off the back of a Pikmin game, a niche title, a Zelda remake, and an advertisement campaign Nintendo hasn't shown themselves capable of yet.
shinra-bansho
Member
Your prediction implies that Nintendo will reach 73% of its already seemingly ambitious fiscal year target by Nov 1. This assuming neither the PS4 or XBOX next launch in October. It is not remotely plausible.
Flightmare
Member
Wii U won't start selling until the big games arrive, meaning from August. At that point wii u is probably at 4m shipped units. The other consoles will most likely launch in October-November, but let's say November. That means Wii U has to sell 6m units between August and November, which is 3 months, 4 if you include November. That means 2m per month or 1.5m if you include November.
CoffeeGames
Member
Where do you get sold = shipped? I don't see that, and from what we know, they shipped more than 3.4 million Wii U's because they were predicting it to do more.
They do include digital sales in the these "sold" numbers now for games as well.
Quadraphonic
Member
Big games alone aren't going to save it.
It's expensive.
It's already dated.
It's mismarketed.
It has a negative reaction to virtually everyone that is familiar with one that doesn't own it yet.
Edit:
The fact people are banking on Pikmin 3 to save the Wii U is the most hilarious thing on the forum right now.
Flightmare
Member
Sold is how many consumers bought the Wii U, shipped is how many Nintendo sold to retailers. Nintendo gets money for every Wii U they sell (ship) to retailers, so that's why they report the shipped number in their earnings
Which is why 10m units sold before the other consoles launch is ridiculous.
No, it's not. Not at all. Saying Nintendo won't hit 10 million by this holiday requires barely even a cursory glance at the data regarding how Wii U's performed thus far.
Saying it's a possibility is expecting a miracle based on what we know.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
What will he say next? lol
lwilliams3
Member
Yes. It will be interesting to see if there will be noticable changes now that Iwata is in this position.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's not. 10M is implausible, but your timeline is unverifiable anyway. If you want to make a prediction make it for Sept 30th 2013. For the latter date ~5-6M shipped worldwide is plausible. Your prediction assumes an additional 4-5M shipped in a single month.
Also I don't see how you can criticize someone above for making assumptions about when Nintendo's games are releasing while simultaneously making assumptions about when Sony and Microsoft will release their systems.
Nah, I'm just getting Deja Vu right now to GAF when the PS3 was in it's early rough days. First it was Uncharted being the savior, then God of War III, then Gran Turismo 5, Metal Gear Solid 4, etc.....
I do believe that because of the rebound of the PS3, Nintendo still has a shot of climbing out of the hole they dug themselves into, but it's going to take a LOT of work. We'll just have to see their cards at the Nintendo E3 Directs.
Steve Youngblood
Member
There isn't a snowball's chance in hell of this happening. I honestly have no idea why you are adamant about insisting that it's anything but a pipe dream. You're trying to claim some sort of nuanced stance, but ten million in or by November is absurd. We are in "I will literally eat my hat if that happens" territory there.
CoffeeGames
Member
Where do you get this information? Sold to consumers = no longer in stock at retailers. Did you miss the report that January's low Wii U sales were potentially due to resellers that bought the Wii U to sell it above costs, returning it when they couldn't do so?
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php#.UUJYH1tbUw8
I don't see where Nintendo reports "shipped" as sold, and unless we can find some numbers to back that up, "sold" is to consumers, not to retailers. Because retailers can return products to distributors, which really doesn't equal "sold" until they are off the shelf to a consumer.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Even if I tried to embarrass myself I couldn't do a better job than you're doing embarrassing yourself. Checkers.
I cannot wait for E3. My expectations for Nintendo are extremely low right now. I despise the decision to retreat from the Big Stage in favor of Nintendo Direct's. Pretty much destroyed my hype, but games are games if Nintendo can bring some new IPs to capture a new audience at least the value of the console would increase. As it stands now, I'm not budging till Smash drops and a price drop. I would love to give a damn about the Wii-U. Honestly a lot is riding on whatever Retro is cooking.
But Nintendo needs to fucking get NoE and NoA up to fucking snuff, Avalanche should be having no issues getting assistance. That failure of communication really irks me.
Christ they really made Iwata Ceo of NoA, goddamn.
But Nintendo needs to fucking get NoE and NoA up to fucking snuff, Avalanche should be having no issues getting assistance. That failure of communication really irks me.
Christ they really made Iwata Ceo of NoA, goddamn.
Yes it does. Nintendo already got revenue from that product even if a customer returns it. That'd be retail money being handled here. Which NPD numbers use.
That was strictly Nintendo numbers. They get money from shipping irregardless of what the customer does with that product afterwards.
possibility =/= expectation. I think it's foolish to discount the possibility that between Wii Fit, Mario, Mario Kart, Retro's game etc, one of them could cause a hardware surge. Anyway, I think we've exhausted this hypothetical by now. 10 mil remains my high end, you can pick you're own number 7, 8m, whatever.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I agree. It's a hypothetical. As much of an hypothetical as Vita selling 30 million by November.
Steve Youngblood
Member
The point is that even if everything was coming up Milhouse, 10 million is still a laughably stupid number.
The stupidity never ends with you. What games does Vita have coming that could cause this number of sales? Are you expecting an extremely effective marketing push that works where their 2012 attempts failed?
velvet_nitemare
Member
This gets explained in every sales thread. Sold as far as they're concerned = Shipped.
Wickerbasket
Member
Who knows? There's always the possibility of it happening. Right? Right.
careful pachter
Steve Youngblood
Member
You can pick the hat!
CoffeeGames
Member
That's not how retail works. Retail stores operate on "credit", meaning the distributors often give the stores a few weeks/months to sell the products, and if they can't they have multiple options.
Sometimes those options are returning unsold products to the distributor, therefor the retailer isn't charged anything and doesn't lose anything.
Other times it's the distributor (Nintendo) working with the retailers and allowing them to do special promotions.
Money does not change hands immediately at retail, in the majority of cases now. A retailer wants a guarantee they aren't getting a product that is simply going to take up shelf space.
shinra-bansho
Member
CoffeeGames, it's well established that all three hardware makers report sell-in in their earnings releases. It is the only definite number they can provide. Nintendo provides sell-through estimates in their investor presentations, these cite NPD, Gfk-ChartTrack or Media Create. Unless otherwise specified investor materials numbers are sold-to-retail/sell-in/shipped.
There are roughly 1M Wii U's still in the global retail channel from the shipments through March 31st 2013 of ~3.45M, which leaves a 6.55M figure to reach 10M (or roughly 70% of their full year forecast).
Sales are going to decrease during the Northern hemisphere summer months.
Given this:
What do you expect them to ship April 1st through June 30th 2013?
What do you expect them to ship July 1st through Sept 30th 2013?
What do you expect them to ship through to "November"/where you've arbitrarily decided both Sony and Microsoft will launch systems?
Elaborate on how exactly your prediction is possible, let alone remotely plausible.
There are roughly 1M Wii U's still in the global retail channel from the shipments through March 31st 2013 of ~3.45M, which leaves a 6.55M figure to reach 10M (or roughly 70% of their full year forecast).
Sales are going to decrease during the Northern hemisphere summer months.
Given this:
What do you expect them to ship April 1st through June 30th 2013?
What do you expect them to ship July 1st through Sept 30th 2013?
What do you expect them to ship through to "November"/where you've arbitrarily decided both Sony and Microsoft will launch systems?
it's common knowledge
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Daaamn Ami that was a great little show you put on there. Another member learned the hard way what happens when you bring a emotional fused argument against the ice cold logic spitting Ami.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Lol exactly. Hypotheticals.
Poimandres
Member
Okay, 10 million is your high end. What is your low end? What do you think is a reasonable prediction for sales this year?
Flightmare
Member
CoffeeGames
Member
So, if Nintendo is using NPD numbers, and NPD numbers reflect "sold" to customers, not "sold to retailers", then what I said remains.
I won't be saying anything Iwata hasn't already said, but
lots of big games in Q3-4 supplemented by a huge ad push on tv and other media outlets. if any one of these games makes waves (Retro's game has the best chance imo, though Mario, Mario Kart, and Wii Fit also have a chance) sales could increase significantly.
There is so much we don't know that it's silly to target me so heavily for saying 10 million is a possibility. We don't know their release schedule, nor do we know about any surprises that may be in store, ala Wii Sports U.
It's great you're confident and all but the sales figure and information we have is suggesting otherwise.
Wii U shipped about 3 million in the first 2 months, and about 400K in the following 3 months. From what we know it's not getting any more "system sellers" of note until Pikmin in August. That's another 3 months. I can't really see Nintendo shipping more than say 500K before August without any software/announcements of note coming out. So they will have shipped about 4 million by August. That's not sold either, shippped but let's assume they all sell.
Do you think they will sell another 6 million before November, when the others launch? That'd be 2 million a month. Even if we give Nintendo until the end of December so they get all the Black Friday and Christmas sales, for them to hit 6 million Buddha himself would have to descend from heaven and buy them to distribute to his followers.
It's easy for you to say it MAY happen, because anything MAY happen. Nintendo might come out at E3 and go "GTA V exclusive for a year" which might do it but the statistics and information we have would suggest a very very different outcome.
I cannot wait for E3. My expectations for Nintendo are extremely low right now. I despise the decision to retreat from the Big Stage in favor of Nintendo Direct's. Pretty much destroyed my hype, but games are games if Nintendo can bring some new IPs to capture a new audience at least the value of the console would increase. As it stands now, I'm not budging till Smash drops and a price drop. I would love to give a damn about the Wii-U. Honestly a lot is riding on whatever Retro is cooking.
But Nintendo needs to fucking get NoE and NoA up to fucking snuff, Avalanche should be having no issues getting assistance. That failure of communication really irks me.
Christ they really made Iwata Ceo of NoA, goddamn.
This next 6 months or so from when the 720 is unveiled until the end of the year is going to be a war. Hype, fanboy rage, studio closures, megatons and who knows what else are going to be daily occurrences. I hope we all have nerves of steel.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Retro's game? The game we don't know ANYTHING about? Amazing.
Answers bolded. There's nothing permanently wrong with Wii U. It just needs serious effort from Nintendo to fix those things.
shinra-bansho
Member
If you're willing to make a prediction for when you've arbitrarily decided the other two consoles will launch, with all the ambiguity that entails, why are you so hesitant to provide a prediction for the other two periods I inquired about?
Is it because doing so would make you realize how completely unreasonable/unrealistic your prediction is?