jts
...hate me...
Aren't you thinking about angst-riden teens? Every kid I now loves Pokemon, Skylanders, Angry Birds, and the iPad or (3)DS is the absolute best.
Nintendo's Iwata: "I don't recall saying I'd resign."
- Thread starter axisofweevils
- Start date
So basically you have no idea.
Does anyone?
It's extremely uneven. From 2004 to about 2008, I feel Nintendo made a set of extremely insightful moves; for example, their recognition that graphics didn't matter very much in the marketplace any longer was clearly something that others did not recognize. I feel they were also keenly aware of how untapped and lucrative the nascent casual market was, and took that market seriously in a way that neither Sony or MS had ever really done. These weren't just smart moves; they were profound insights that led Nintendo to record profits neither Sony or MS have ever come close to in the gaming space.
But then came a series of major mistakes from late 2008 onwards. They did very little to correct their poor networking situation, only beginning to move in the right direction over the last couple years (And now are playing catch up from way behind moving targets). They let the casual audience get away from them, and they didn't cultivate strong relations with any independent studios who might have been more amenable to Nintendo's approach than EA or Take 2 is (Rovio's basic game design and target demographic is perfect for the Wii or DS, but their games are iOS centric instead).
Essentially I feel most of their problems since 2009 center around their inability to take networking seriously. Both the hardcore and casual audiences are very eager for online gaming, albeit in different ways (the Halo/DotA 2 type crowd, the Farmville/Angry Birds type crowd, united by their interest in online gaming).
I think it's highly unlikely that the Wii U will rocket to success at this point. Not impossible, but very unlikely.
Generally speaking, the most likely course of events in any situation is "present trends will continue," especially (in gaming) mid-generation when consumers have already had a chance to look at a product. Yes, very occasionally game changers come along and shift a product dramatically in the middle of its lifespan, but those are very uncommon.
While acknowledging that anything is possible, I think a reasonable person would say the most likely future is that preset trends continue, and the Wii U remains a dramatic failure or, at best, a middling success.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
Howard Lincoln being more qualified than Reggie Fils-Aimee is not an argument you can successfully make. Reason being is that since Satoru Iwata took over as Corporate Planning Director in 2000, then later as CEO and President in 2002, NOA itself has been disempowered at an executive and development level. During the Yamauchi era, there was only one king, Hiroshi Yamauchi, and he then granted several people an equal level of autonomy. This hierarchy of sovereignty actually created the classic Nintendo of the NES, SNES, and N64 era.
Right now, what you are seeing is a lot of the "triad". Iwata, Miyamoto, and Takeda. I think the company has lost its balance somewhat and you can definitely see it from a management and creative level if you ask me. That is just my opinion. From a development level, it seems that 80% of the internal development workforce, sort of has to create products that agree with Miyamoto's ideals. That's now how it was during the Yamauchi era at all. That's one of the beautiful things of the internal development being split four ways between Yokoi, Uemura, Miyamoto, and Takeda. It's how we got Metroid, Ice Climbers, The Legend of Zelda, and Star Tropics. With only one of those four now sort of controlling the ideas of the work staff, the vision doesn't seem as ambitious and varying as it once was.
I agree with this. I think the Wii U will be a moderate success at best. I just hope for a new console in 3 years that is more competitive.
TheRedSnifit
Member
I doubt that investors care about market share as long as they're making obscene amounts of money.
Aquamarine
Member
Agreed.
All you have to do to confirm this is to take a look at Nintendo's most recent Board of Directors list, organized by "hierarchy":
Clearly, Mr. Iwata sees the trifecta (Iwata, Miyamoto, Takeda) as fundamentally central to the core of Nintendo leadership.
1) Takeda -> Hardware
2) Miyamoto -> Software
3) Iwata -> Corporate Planning and Financial Efficiency
This. This this THIS.
Yeah, Howard Lincoln kicked ass and Reggie seems like an idiot in comparison, but it's really hard to assign blame here. NoA as a whole doesn't seem to be allowed to make the same kinds of moves it was able to back when Howard was on board. Who knows what Reggie might be like in an environment where he was able to make significant decisions.
Yet another reason to add to the pool for why Iwata should be sacked.
JordanN
Banned
Western Support wouldn't be as guillotined as it is now.
I recall Reggie always had an interest in getting GTA on Nintendo platforms and even instrumented GTA on DS.
Now look at what major game is landing near the end of the year and not on Nintendo, but no one seems to care in Kyoto....
SenatorBot
Member
Even if Howard Lincoln was on NOA right now, I doubt he'll be given the power to change or do anything without answering to Iwata.
With american affairs being handled overseas by someone who doesn't understand the market, all it does is create an incredibly slow feedback which hinders their oversea operations than striking it when the iron is hot when things need to happen.
With american affairs being handled overseas by someone who doesn't understand the market, all it does is create an incredibly slow feedback which hinders their oversea operations than striking it when the iron is hot when things need to happen.
Eteric Rice
Member
I suspect they believe that the Mario, Donkey Kong, etc, coming at the end of the year, and the others coming next year will revive it.
If those don't, they will probably actually start to panic.
If those don't, they will probably actually start to panic.
If they dont then call it a wrap.
Aquamarine
Member
I always find comparisons to the Gamecube apt because they tend to show the state of a modern Nintendo home console minus the spectacle of gimmicks or killer apps.
So in this case, I expect Mario Kart 8 to perform similarly to Double Dash...Smash Bros. U to perform similar to Melee...and 3D World to perform similar to Sunshine.
Considering that the full stable of Nintendo IPs AND Nintendo's greater investments in third-parties AND much greater third-party support were only able to secure 22 Million LTD shipped GameCube consoles, it's very reasonable to expect ~20 million shipped Wii U consoles as the upper limit for Wii U success in the market.
jts
...hate me...
What is the size of the market now, and what was then?
Got me there.
Truth be told, I think Reggie is done mentally. NoA is on autopilot at this point.
Same. I did not see how he ever implied it, but Gaffers gonna Gaf.
Yeah, I don't see how they turn this situation around. I think if they had a bolder 3D Mario this year, some amazing blue ocean game we haven't seen yet (and which is such an impossible to define variable that it could be almost literally anything), and Mario Kart they could have made the system at least viable as a second console.
As it is now, I don't see what is on the horizon to fix this mess. A remake (or is it enhanced release?) of an already controversial Zelda game (I love it, but people still endlessly debate its merits.. it has to be one of the most divisive titles in the series), a 3D Mario title that looks derivative of the handheld title (which is also, insofar as a Mario game can be, a title that represents a fair amount of conflict among Mario's fanbase as well), and Wii Fit U (that fad is dead, imo, as a system seller).
They have a nice slate of games for a sales perspective this Holiday season:
Stranger's Wrath HD, Oddworld: New 'n' Tasty, Wonderful 101, Pikmin 3, Super Mario 3D World, Rayman Legends, Wii Fit U, Earthbound *VC*, Wii Party U, Just Dance 2014, Duck Tales Remastered, Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Assassin's Creed IV, Deus Ex: Human Revolution, Skylanders Swap Force, Ballpoint Universe, Lego Marvel Superheroes, Batman: Arkham Origins, Castle of Illusion, Scribblenauts Unmasked: A DC Comics Adventure, Watch Dogs, New Super Luigi U
Looking at it from this perspective, it's quite easy to see if you're a Wii U-only owner, or even have it as a secondary system when XBO and PS4 launch, there's plenty to satisfy you. Sure it's a little heavy in one or two particular genres, but it's not exactly like those genres have huge representations on the competitor's platform, so it's filling in some missing gaps anyway. That's a quality I like in my secondary systems, which Wii U surely is for me
Naturally, it's a list that won't appeal to everyone either, as it avoids a substantial number of genres and thematic directions. It's a very complicated path Nintendo is on.
Holy Order Sol
Member
Iwata: Internet pls. *laughs*
Aquamarine
Member
Nintendo really need to keep Miyamoto working on his own projects and away form other projects like Paper Mario ect. Giving their studios some freedom could do some wonders for them. You can quality check without being totalitarian.
it really depends on how much ps4/xbone sell. ps2 dominated the market and so xbox1/gamecube fought over the scraps. many assume that xbone/ps4 will live up to or surpass their predecessors , im not so sure after both vita and wii u are struggling whilst ipads and andoids are booming.
Interceptor
Banned
Very good post. Iwata stepping down is no solution for this. Miyamoto taking more of a backseat position might be one. Good thing he is planning to do just this. Whats missing are some excelent young developers with a decent amount of competition and freedom. But i might be wrong on this one.
SolarPowered
Member
Great post
The Nintendo of old was very varied. It's a shame I was a bit too young to fully appreciate their games and philosophy during the NES and SNES era.
This explains a lot.
What happen with Paper Mario has me worried about the new Mario & Luigi game. It's why I'm not looking forward to it either until I hear how it is. Miyamoto's style and desires should not be impacting every single game coming out of Nintendo. Just because he doesn't care about story doesn't mean others don't. Times change. What people want and expect out of games change.
JordanN
Banned
Vita and Wii U are nothing like PS4/XBO so using them as preliminary benchmarks is beyond futile.
Even if those consoles struggle, their reasons would be as far as disconnected from those two.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
You can blame Club Nintendo surveys for the lack of story in Sticker Star because that's what Miyamoto cited when asked
Mysterious
Banned
Um no, not really.
14,165,000 Shares of out 400,000,000 Total Number of Shares Authorized to be Issued isn't a whole lot. State Street Bank and Trust Company and JP Morgan Chase Bank also own a somewhat large amount of shares of Nintendo as well.
jts
...hate me...
Considerations about which point of the generational lifecycle those years represent aside, if the market sizes are really that close, then the market could be shrinking, which means less than 20m Wii U, ceteris paribus. Esp. if we adjust for inflation.
That is, assuming the Wii U will never get any killer app, and that those games will absolutely have the same reception (hard to believe a 3D Mario World, which is a feature-rich 3D Mario with some 2D appeal won't outsell Sunshine for example).
That is a lot of assumptions.
About the role history plays in this, there's one thing we can be absolutely certain: history will repeat itself or history will not repeat itself. That much we've seen all the time.
Vane_MagicCity
Banned
No you can blame Miyamoto for the lack of story. He's the one with the final word.
I guess Nintendo does their own thing, until Club Nintendo surveys force their hand.
tehrik-e-insaaf
Member
This is a tired one-sided narrative - summing up: "Nintendo lost the West and is d00med here" and "Iwata is insular and conservative" - try something that isn't repeating stereotypical memes based on your unfounded assumptions of Nintendo as a company.
The first thing people need to understand about Nintendo is that they are a design company, like Apple. They will have tremendous hits and flops over time, but net-net, they are creating shareholder value - which is why the company has $14 billion in cash and short-term holdings making it the most valuable gaming company in the world.
Running a design company isn't about jumping on trends, it's about fostering a creative culture where people are free to work and create, and then jumping on key products as they are built and figuring out how to get people to buy them. That's a tremendous job. That is why Steve Jobs was respected the way he was. This is why Satoru Iwata is highly respected within Nintendo. These guys are going to make mistakes and they are going to do things that puzzle people (Jobs was famous for closed ecosystems, when everyone else was going open), but their internal teams love them, and they perform and work for him because they admire/respect him - and there is a cult of personality around them. You can't just bring in a mercenary fly-by-night executive looking to cash-in to run these companies. The talent would just get up and leave.
That said, Nintendo made a lot of wise choices in the past five years: they locked up Japan, which they feel is their cash cow market now largely abandoned by Sony and with Microsoft non-existent.
They also went on a hiring binge and got talent that was being laid off by other companies, and setup partnerships and joint-development opportunities with companies like Platinum and Mistwalker and Namco Bandai and Tecmo Koei - completely changing the way the majority of the game development community in Japan saw them. This took incredible time and effort frankly. Other than that, Nintendo has expanded Monolithsoft, Retro, and fostered relationships with a dozen smaller studios in Kyoto that are offshoots of employees from Konami, Square, etc.
They've also had to build out an entire OS team and built a social network through a partnership which they are managing internally. Nintendo also had to hire, over the past few years, tons of people in network engineering to bulk up on their core software abilities - unlike Microsoft which had people ready to go on that front. They are still lacking on this front but it's come a very long way and will improve - Sony is evidence of that. Even the Xbox has changed dramatically over the years.
More importantly: scaling up creative staff from say 1000 people to 3000 or more, for a company with such a unique workshop-like culture as Nintendo is really hard. Nintendo has the toughest hiring standards in the industry and have a very strong internal culture, and they are very careful about not ruining that - unlike Silicon Valley ponzi schemes that are trying to get bought in a few years and will hire anyone with a Stanford degree just to appease venture capitalists. Nintendo has had to exert tremendous effort to ensure they hire in a sustainable way where people work together and the culture thrives.
With what abilities they had and opportunities they saw I think they made the right choices.
In your world, they would have abandoned a few of the ideas above, and gone to the West where there were two camps: one were non-gaming executives running gaming companies fighting over the same pool of 1000-1200 developers, inflating salaries out of control, and desperate to try and release another shoot-bang game on HD consoles. Another group of people were proclaiming the end of traditional games as Zynga was going public and venture capitalists were dumping millions into Facebook games.
The latter: almost all of these companies failed miserably. Zynga is effectively on life support. There are a few small shops making tremendous money on these platforms, but it's a huge mess. The former? The jury is still out who will survive in the next five or ten years as we move towards real-world games with augmented reality and other types of gaming platforms like the Oculus Rift. Needless to say, few companies outside Activision made money in the last gen, and my bet is, EA might fold in another seven or ten years especially if they don't get to hold onto their exclusive sports licenses. I'll go out on a limb here: I believe EA is going to be nothing but a foot note in the pages of history. Nintendo is 120+ years old. They've seen dozens of EAs come and go over time.
So then, what should Nintendo have done in the West? Throw millions into California-based companies for no reason? Buy up studios only for the talent to leave? Money hat a bunch of games from developers that had no interest in making Wii games? I keep hearing all this talk about "Nintendo and West" - but there aren't a lot of compelling things Nintendo could have done. Building studios takes years, and Nintendo isn't just going to throw millions for another nightmare like Retro to occur which consumed incredible time from NCL and EAD.
As for your tirade about Iwata neutering NoA. NoA has been dead for years. That's the truth. Treehouse is the last good thing about it and that's because Nintendo's core localization team has been together FOREVER and all their kids go to school together - they are incredibly tight and will never leave unless something drastic happens. The rest of NoA? The Wii was such a novel product that many people coasted through, even though they had the ability to really get deep and do some impressive things with their fan community. That's a failure of Reggie and other execs, not Iwata who basically gave them the freedom to do what they wanted and even made a bunch of games like Xenoblade available for them to localize.
Part of the problem is that NoA never got great leadership after two rounds of poaching by Microsoft (once before the Xbox launched, another time right before the Kinect launched and Microsoft started doubling or tripling salaries to bring in Nintendo's marketing people), so this has been troublesome as Iwata does not have a trusted counterpart at NoA with a blood commitment to the company that Yamauchi did in the form of Minoru Arakawa. I honestly think this is why Iwata named himself CEO of NoA was because he wanted to play a more direct role in building executive capacity and ensuring that NoA was in position to succeed. He really needs to move to the US because NoA is playing games of musical chairs. The biggest idea Reggie has proposed has been TVii, and NCL let them do that - Reggie could have proposed any number of things frankly - but this is the best that came to his mind.
The human resource issue in the US partially exists because Nintendo has a unique way of going about hiring people. It doesn't want to hire mercenaries like Peter Moore who will sell their soul for a few bucks and jump company to company (some would argue Moore killed the Dreamcast just to curry favor with Microsoft and he himself said that Microsoft helped arrange his transfer to EA because they saw an opportunity to corner both Nintendo and Sony). Nintendo hires people who are passionate about their products, and are motivated by things beyond money - much like Howard Lincoln and Peter Main were during their tenure at Nintendo. Just consider this: Iwata gets paid $1.2 million bucks a year - Bobby Kotick who doesn't even play games - made over 50x that in a single year.
The other thing I'd like to remind people, is that America isn't the only market important to NCL. Europe is frankly, just as big and just as important to Nintendo, if not more important given some of the shared gaming tastes in Europe. Nintendo spent TONS of money on marketing in Europe going from a has-been to holding the console crown when the Wii came out. NoE does a ton of work behind the scenes that people are not aware of to get Nintendo from constant third place finishes to where they ended up in the Wii days. Do you guys think this just happened magically? We don't hear a lot about how engaged NCL got into Europe - but there are a lot of NCL people that flew back and forth between Japan and Europe during the Wii days to give it the kind of coverage it now has - and this consumed Iwata's time.
This is all my opinion frankly, and I say this more to try and counter this ridiculous and IMHO ethnocentric inertia of "Iwata is a fool, doesn't get the West, and is keeping NoA weak cause Japanese companies are pride LOL lol lol!!111" - but I hope what I say will resonate with some of you - running Nintendo isn't a joke - Iwata is a great executive who is finally growing into his role. Yamauchi made LOTS of mistakes early on and Nintendo lost a ton of money with his ill-advised ventures. But that's the beauty of Nintendo - they really want to grow their executives and give them leeway to make mistakes - Iwata will learn - and when he figures out NoA - I am sure Nintendo will have an amazing core team in both Japan and America.
tl;dr --- There really isn't anyone better than Iwata who has the respect within Nintendo's creative teams, support from shareholders, and an overall desire to see it move forward, that could come in and do the things that an extremely off-beat culture like Nintendo is now doing for the future.
IrishNinja
Member
*edit: ^good post too
oh man, some delicious tears in here - thankfully shikimaru showed up, don't recall having read a bad post from him yet
and we're done here
oh man, some delicious tears in here - thankfully shikimaru showed up, don't recall having read a bad post from him yet
and we're done here
Anticitizen One
Banned
*edit: ^good post too
oh man, some delicious tears in here - thankfully shikimaru showed up, don't recall having read a bad post from him yet
and we're done here
Why is that funny? Microsoft is doing it. It would be a very profitable revenue stream for them instead of spending 6 years rebuilding their half ass VC library every time a new system comes out. I am very confident once Iwata steps down the next CEO will do just that.
What an amazing post, tehrik. I disagree with a lot of your conclusions and intend to respond to some of them when I have the time, but I must say bravo on your presentation. Supremely well done, informative and thought provoking, and everything NeoGAF is meant to be.
Well respond in time, but it's an equally intensive undertaking, so hold with me
Well respond in time, but it's an equally intensive undertaking, so hold with me
jts
...hate me...
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
It seems so many suggestions boil down to "Nintendo you're stupid, fire Iwata and hire someone who does everything just like Microsoft then you'll be fine".
Quoted for truth. Thanks, really good read.
We have to define what success means, if it's Wii success, hell no, if it is PS3 success, well, why not?
JordanN
Banned
To me it's more like, Nintendo is a company that's been out of touch since they coincided control of the game industry to Sony. They continue to deviate leading to results that have been both hit and miss.
Rather than continue walking down this shaky path that could potentially kill the company some day, new management is needed that is far more aware of how the game industry operates. Iwata and his associates do not represent knowledge of the game industry.
Edit: Actually, I want to see Iwata change first. However, it's impossible to predict that so a clean sweep of management is the next best thing. Also, Microsoft isn't infallible so I'm not sure why they have to mimic them. Observing what makes them successful is worth copying though (but this can be said for any company).
Carpe Libertatem
Member
They acted in accordance with what the surveys - filled out by customers - told them. That's pretty natural for a business. Or should they not listen to consumers?
darkistheway
Member
Great post, tehrik! I always love when you take the time to post.
I think the key message for people to take home when they talk about NOA is not Lincoln or Reggie but rather, as tehrik noted, is Arakawa.
His ties to Yamaguchi were what allowed for NOA to be successful in North America. I am hoping that Iwata's becoming CEO over here signals a return to that regional focus.
The North American market is an essential component of Nintendo's long-term success and they cannot rely on Wii-style successes here. I think this industry is very much 'person' driven and Nintendo needs to build relationships with Western developers and get them invested in Nintendo's market. Their focus on indie developers is probably the best foot forward in this direction.
I think the key message for people to take home when they talk about NOA is not Lincoln or Reggie but rather, as tehrik noted, is Arakawa.
His ties to Yamaguchi were what allowed for NOA to be successful in North America. I am hoping that Iwata's becoming CEO over here signals a return to that regional focus.
The North American market is an essential component of Nintendo's long-term success and they cannot rely on Wii-style successes here. I think this industry is very much 'person' driven and Nintendo needs to build relationships with Western developers and get them invested in Nintendo's market. Their focus on indie developers is probably the best foot forward in this direction.
Vane_MagicCity
Banned
It's not pretty natural for Nintendo. Aren't we always hearing about how Nintendo does it's own thing?
Maybe if we complain about an account system on Club Nintendo, they will implement one?
HAHAHAHA! WHAT?
Seriously.....WHAT? Howard Lincoln would never force Yamauchi to fucking ANYTHING whatsoever. What planet are you living on? He was a tough and competent Chairman, but you need to get your head out of the clouds, dude. Yamauchi was the absolute dominant power at Nintendo for years, and Lincoln and Arakawa knew that and respected that.
The big difference between Yamauchi and Iwata, is that Yamauchi wasn't nearly as hands-on with NOA that Iwata is. He allowed Lincoln and Arakawa to make the moves necessary to keep Nintendo competitive in North America. As a result, NOA was a bit more independent back then than it is now. Make no mistake about this, though....in regards to any big decisions that would have any types of big financial implications to NCL, the buck stopped at Yamauchi. Full Stop.
Angel Whispers
Member
SHEER BRILLIANCE. This is a legendary post. Well said, that!!
SolarPowered
Member
It'd take a real stretch of the imagination for anyone to think that Nintendo should act like Microsoft. No gaming company could take the hit Microsoft did just to get their foot in the door with the OG Xbox.
I wonder how many people are just going to pretend that SCEA doesn't exist from now on.
Eteric Rice
Member
I think what he meant was that he was willing to become a pain in Yamauchi's ass in order to get it done. And since Yamauchi trusted him, it sometimes got stuff done.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Nintendo is a business. It is natural for them. Just because you aren't getting what you want doesn't mean they aren't listening to the consumers (and frankly, a story wouldn't have saved Sticker Star)
Maybe. Miiverse works too. Those are both two mediums which allow consumers to voice their opinion directly to Nintendo and Nintendo has very clearly paid attention to both (hence why we are getting Earthbound)