These Wii U numbers are still blowing my mind. As of right now, the one year head start is officially over. What have they done with it besides kill Sonic the Hedgehog?
People are saying the true test is this November. I disagree. Honestly, I think Wii U will get fucking crushed by next gen hype, PS3, 360 and even the 3DS. 3D Mario isn't enough.
I think their true test as to whether reaching Gamecube numbers is realistic by the time a successor launches will be NEXT holiday. By then, next gen hype will have calmed down, and they will have their two heaviest hitters in Smash Bros and Mario Kart released.
Nintendo sold a Gamecube bundle with Mario Kart for $99 in 2004. While I don't think they will go that low, desperate times call for desperate measures, and they will be selling Wii U with NSMBU and NSLU for no more than $199 next Christmas. That and Kart/Smash is their last fucking hope.
To even come close to Gamecube numbers, it would have to sell decently well from holiday 2014 to holiday 2016, which is when they'll release the successor. Personally, I can't see them pulling it off, but if anything is going to "save" the Wii U, it's not 3D Mario, it'll be a ridiculously low entry price + Smash + Kart.