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[travisbickle]

by the time it happens people will be ready for it. Right now the general public doesn't care about HD for DVD movies. It wouldn't surpise me at all if regular old DVDs were still going strong in 5-7 years.

What's your point? regular VHS was readily available 5 years after the introduction of DVD. And I don't know what crappy quality videos you were watching but the ones I was buying didn't visually have a major difference from DVD, a comment I'll standby as my Bro in Law still buys a lot of VHS tapes for his son. Convenience was the big seller for DVD, this time around your new high definition television is the reason to buy high definition videos, its a no brainer.

 

[Ponn]

The thing is, I really see Blue Ray and HD DVD as more akin to laser disks than DVDs.

If the format war drags out for awhile then yea I see that too. I've said it before, I will say it again, I think DVD and HD disc (whichever one wins) can live on the shelf side by side. HD disc will be bigger then laser disc, but that analogy just isn't too far off in my opinion. The HT market is just so much bigger compared to back then that its no longer a niche product and can garner lots of support because of a larger customer base. Hell, we are already seeing much larger support for TWO HD disc formats then laserdisc alone. Alot of stuff just doesn't need to be on HD disc though and thats where DVD comes in at. Like the older back catalog movies, kids shows, etc. I don't need an Abbot and Costello collection to be on Blu-ray, I don't really need those Looney Tunes collections to be on Blu-ray nor a movie like Rumor Has It (i'm sure some bought it on HDDVD though). I do need Superman Returns though and Star Wars and Lord of the Rings and Jaws would all be nice.

 

[Ponn]

this is wrong right?

I think these people saying this are missing the point. If it was marketed as a Blu-ray player then what would stop the same people who are overlooking HD movies to over look that as well. It's marketed as a PS3 and a gaming system though and thats what the majority of people are buying it for. Quite a few people that probably would not have been looking at the HD movies to begin with. Now those people have a player in their homes that they will eventually realize and will be tempted to, at the very least rent a few Blu-ray movies and maybe start buying some.

 

[Twix]

hi rubso, do you want them to kick you out as we did. poor guy

 

[dynamitejim]

The thing is, I really see Blue Ray and HD DVD as more akin to laser disks than DVDs.

How? Perhaps whichever one eventually fails, but I think the winner will be able to sell more players than the 2 million in 20 years that LD did. LD was niche because of the high prices, low availability, and inconvenience (a single movie on multiple huge, multi-sided discs).

 

[Y2Kev]

My mom is a "Jane Sixpack" when it comes to technology and she can tell the difference between a DVD and an hd broadcast even, nevermind hd disc. I think it's a much bigger jump in quality. Sure, there isn't "tracking" issues anymore, but for most people it's a much larger leap in clarity, sharpness, and overall image quality.

 

[Christopher]

Reason 11: Who Cares.

 

[borghe]

My mom is a "Jane Sixpack" when it comes to technology and she can tell the difference between a DVD and an hd broadcast even, nevermind hd disc. I think it's a much bigger jump in quality. Sure, there isn't "tracking" issues anymore, but for most people it's a much larger leap in clarity, sharpness, and overall image quality.

while your mom may truly be mass market and can see a difference, the fact remains that most can't, and certainly not to an extent to: a) fork over $300-1000 for a new player and b) start buying discs in a new format.

I personally don't foresee both formats necessarily failing. a CD/VCR style lag in adoption is still possible for one of them. but they have to be given a reason to care, and frankly HD isn't a good enough reason on its own compared to DVD. You will have to see prices rapidly fall below $250 and hollywood make a concerted effort (hybrid discs and demanding shelf space) to get the product out there.

 

[gofreak]

while your mom may truly be mass market and can see a difference, the fact remains that most can't

Where does this come from? Has an extensive survey using HD-DVD or Blu-ray v DVD been done or something?

I'm willing to bet that side by side it'll be immediately obvious which is better on a number of levels (detail and colour resolution primarily - the latter ought to be at least as big a deal as the former). I've only seen a couple of side-by-sides on the web from photographs, and the difference was very dramatic. If they were indicative of the typical difference, you'd have to be blind not to see it.

 

[borghe]

Where does this come from? Has an extensive survey using HD-DVD or Blu-ray v DVD been done or something?

just general consensus on avs and the spot. during non-A/B comparisons the average person usually sees practically no difference, and during A/B comparisons the average person generally sees little to no difference. (all of this is for filmed contrent only. live video content generally always gets a wow.) the videophile on the other hand sees a dramatic difference, because they no what they are looking for (resolution, color, lack of artifacting, etc). but even the most honest av enthusiasts will agree that the difference they see is because they know what they are looking for, and the average person won't even be aware that those differences exist.

on my CraigM calibrated mits, my wife never really started seeing a difference between HD and SD until directv started compressing the shit out of SD channels even further. and even then she only notices because of how bad directv SD looks.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

The main reason is that DVD sales finally eclipsed VHS sales in early 2004. Considering how DVD hit the markets in 1997 (maybe even earlier than that), it took at least six years to get it to eclipse an old, inconvenient format. So now consumers are supposed to get an entirely new format? Bitch, please.

There's a chance HD-DVD or BR will be the new formats but I wouldn't expect them to be the new medium until maybe 2012 at the very earliest. Now, its up to the studios and manufacturers. Do they have the dedication to the format to see it through or will they just chuck it in a couple years and pretended nothing happened? That will be the real question. If they do get rid of it, I expect a new HD standard disc. If they stick it out, they could see actual success with it.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

As much as I don't want to, I agree with much of this article.

Two things I don't agree with:

1) His first point is dumb. None of the stuff he's talking about there will have an impact one way or the other.

2) I'm not convinced that an HD disc format is dead, just that it's not likely to take off now. I think it's inevitable, and it probably will be one of these two formats.

His point regarding the PS3 not saving Bluray was dead-on accurate, as was his point that HD movies are probably not enough to get people to switch. Sadly, I *want* an HD format to take off, because most of what I do with my HDTV is watch movies, and I do want them sharper and higher resolution.

 

[gofreak]

just general consensus on avs and the spot.

Not nearly good enough to present something as "fact"

I see the sentiment repeated ad nauseum in some quarters, but its foundation seems rather limited and/or shaky. I'll have to do a test with my family once I get my PS3 with a DVD/BD comparison, but again, if the side-by-sides I've seen on the web (admittedly only a couple) are any indication, I'm confident the difference will be utterly obvious.

 

[Zaptruder]

The main reason is that DVD sales finally eclipsed VHS sales in early 2004. Considering how DVD hit the markets in 1997 (maybe even earlier than that), it took at least six years to get it to eclipse an old, inconvenient format. So now consumers are supposed to get an entirely new format? Bitch, please.

There's a chance HD-DVD or BR will be the new formats but I wouldn't expect them to be the new medium until maybe 2012 at the very earliest. Now, its up to the studios and manufacturers. Do they have the dedication to the format to see it through or will they just chuck it in a couple years and pretended nothing happened? That will be the real question. If they do get rid of it, I expect a new HD standard disc. If they stick it out, they could see actual success with it.

I know you're not saying you expect them to chuck it...

but honestly honestly honestly, to everyone thinking this, why the hell would you logically think that they'd move to different formats after so much time and investment? Both the intended forms of BD and HDDVDs are adequate for lengthy HD movies... why the hell would studios spend hundreds of millions dollars more on rolling out another HD format, so as to gain no benefits?

Both BD and HDDVD are primarily for the purpose of HD movies/media. It's not like they could stick new HD movies onto DVDs and expect compatibility with old DVD players; not when the differences between SD and HD processing extend far beyond firmware upgrades. Since they're going to have to rollout new hardware, might as well take the opportunity to update the physical disc format so that they're more suitable for HD media as well. Now that we have 2 competing HD formats... it'll end up been the case where one will stand and the other fall.

People will move onto HD media; transfers will get better, the disc technology will mature, people will buy HDTVs in increasing numbers, and they WILL notice the difference in fidelity, assuming they have reasonable working eyesight.

 

[borghe]

I agree with you zap that they won't scrap either format for a NEW format (though digital downloads is something else entirely).

I don't agree that people will just naturally move on to HD. they will have to be forced through some other means. discontinuation, pricing, something. it took 7 years for the majority of people to move on to DVD, and that was after stores like best buy and circuit city STOPPED CARRYING VHS. BRD/HDDVD is in an even worse scenario than DVD. something drastic will need to happen to move people over, and it will have to come down from the MPAA itself.

 

[Zaptruder]

I agree with you zap that they won't scrap either format for a NEW format (though digital downloads is something else entirely).

I don't agree that people will just naturally move on to HD. they will have to be forced through some other means. discontinuation, pricing, something. it took 7 years for the majority of people to move on to DVD, and that was after stores like best buy and circuit city STOPPED CARRYING VHS. BRD/HDDVD is in an even worse scenario than DVD. something drastic will need to happen to move people over, and it will have to come down from the MPAA itself.

I think the change to digital TV broadcasts will be that change.

People's analog TVs will stop working, and a lot will just say, screw it, lets go the whole hog and pick up a HDTV.

That is of course if digital tuners become more pervasive then it currently is with HDTVs.

The evolution from DVDs to HD media will pretty much go along with HDTVs IMO; slow but steady. Ultimately, when all is said and done HD media should last longer than DVDs given that there's unlikely to be any sort of standards change for a while yet.

Regardless, you'll definetly not lose for adopting in a years time compared to 5 years time.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I could see one of the two current HD Disc formats continuing but I would not be surprised if they were slightly altered/enhanced and renamed.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

HD disc players will need to be under $200 to get any kind of mainstream acceptance. Probably $150 at most before people start buying them in mass numbers. I know I won't bother with a HD disc machine until its at that price. I own an upscaler DVD player for my HDTV. I'll be willing to buy a player when the price is right.

One will fall, that is definite. This isn't the PC market where the average consumer has more knowledge to pick or choose a preference. So if someone buys a Bluray player and wants Warner Brothers movies, they're screwed. Companies like Warner will see the missed revenue by not moving. They'll start publishing BR movies. Or it could go the other way. HD-DVD could be the media format that stands. Its possible.

HD downloads won't be possible. Where I live, I'm still unable to get a broadband connection. I'm on 56K that runs at the speed of a 28.8K modem. It wouldn't work. The next generation will probably be those 2540p movies or whatever they are. The theater quality format. Then after that, digital downloading.

 

[Kintaro]

I agree with you zap that they won't scrap either format for a NEW format (though digital downloads is something else entirely).

I don't agree that people will just naturally move on to HD. they will have to be forced through some other means. discontinuation, pricing, something. it took 7 years for the majority of people to move on to DVD, and that was after stores like best buy and circuit city STOPPED CARRYING VHS. BRD/HDDVD is in an even worse scenario than DVD. something drastic will need to happen to move people over, and it will have to come down from the MPAA itself.

Such as completely removing DVD in the same manner?

DVD had more than just the specs working for it. It was also "new" and "cool." Oh shit, entire movie, plus tons of extra shit on a single DVD! New packaging! It's pretty damn small! This is "cool!" Animated menus, extras, the whole nine yards. All of which was on top of much improved audio and video. You can argue it, but there was definitely a "coolness" factor of DVD compared to VHS.

BR/HD will never have this going for it. It'll have much improved video/audio and size, but will it ever be "cool" enough to invest in new TVs and audio systems? Same disc (maybe it's blue!), same type of packaging, nothing really "new" about it. Something to look at as the format gets older.

Besides, we're talking about the same mainstream that has forced companies to continue to release movies on DVD in Widescreen and FULLSCREEN versions. I mean, for ****s sakes. Studios going to do this for HD/BR too? This shit must DIE.

I personally would LOVE BR to turn out like a more popular LD. A higher quality alternate format for the AV lover in you. Just me though. I don't care, but mainstream wise, it'll take major balls from the studios to push consumers to this over DVDs. In the end, most may say "**** it" and get the bootlegs on DVD/download.

 

[borghe]

HD downloads won't be possible. Where I live, I'm still unable to get a broadband connection.

stopped reading after that. you are in a small minority. current broadband availability is around I believe close to 90% in the US. outside of the US in major countries availability is even closer to 100%. and in the US with technologies like FIOS/Lightspeed, WiMAX, and others broadband will eventually hit 100%. and this isn't some guy offering up his opinion out of his ass. I'm the WAN engineer for our company with 29 remote locations across north and south america all over vpn. and of those, none are currently on dedicated service (i.e. they are all cable/dsl/wifi connections).. and when you have a location in bum**** kentucky that has a 1.5/384K DSL line (granted we only finally got it within the last 6 months), broadband availability issues are going away.

as for HD downloads, 10-12Mbps is more than enough for broadcast quality HD using AVC. and considering most of the new super-highspeed lines are looking at between 18-30Mbps, we'll have more than enough bandwidth for that. and those super-highspeed lines will even have better range initially than DSL did, so more people right off the bat will be able to get those lines than could get DSL in the beginning.

 

[Zaptruder]

Such as completely removing DVD in the same matter?

DVD has more than just the specs working for it. It was also "new" and "cool." Oh shit, entire movie, plus tons of extra shit on a single DVD! New packaging! It's pretty damn small! This is "cool!" Animated menus, extras, the whole nine yards. All of which was on top of much improved audio and video. You can argue it, but there was definitely a "coolness" factor of DVD compared to VHS.

BR/HD will never have this going for it. It'll have much improved video/audio and size, but will it ever be "cool" enough to invest in new TVs and audio systems? Same disc (maybe it's blue!), same type of packaging, nothing really "new" about it. Something to look at as the format gets older.

Besides, we're talking about the same mainstream that has forced companies to continue to release movies on DVD in Widescreen and FULLSCREEN versions. I mean, for ****s sakes. Studios going to do this for HD/BR too? This shit must DIE.

I personally would LOVE BR to turn out like a more popular LD. A higher quality alternate format for the AV lover in you. Just me though. I don't care, but mainstream wise, it'll take major balls from the studios to push consumers to this over DVDs. In the end, most may say "**** it" and get the bootlegs on DVD/download.

on the bolded point; I think this is another facet that ties into HDTV adoption. Most HDTVs are widescreen. As more and more pickup HDTVs and as it becomes the absolute standard in the next 5+ years, more and more people will be expecting widescreen.

DVD did have a lot going for it... but at the same time, it had a huge draw back in that people had to restart their libraries. For Bluray and HDDVD, I think the fact that they're backwards compatible (and even enhances) will help a lot of people just start to flow into HD media so to speak... instead of buying new DVDs, they simply pick up new HD discs.

With prices been similar ($30 RRP for BDs, DVDs and HDDVDs; $10-20 sale prices) there just isn't much reason to NOT pick up the HD version (if they have the appropriate player. And with the PS3; A LOT of people will).

 

[Raistlin]

1. Nobody likes false starts

The situation was pretty similar with CD and DVD. People really have short memories.

2. Format Wars Don’t Sell Players

While I would certainly agree format wars are bad - is the implication that all formats involved in a war will die? That is not been consistently true historically.

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology

I’m not really sure what people would be expecting? Once everyone gets their act together, we should see video that maxes out our 1080p TVs, as well as audio that should be indistinguishable from studio masters.

From a strictly A/V perspective, there is not a need to go beyond these mediums.

4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated

I’m not sure where this guy does his research, but the studios were directly involved in trying to get these formats out at this time. They made projections for DVD sales, and were not happy.

5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World

There was so much stupidy in this point, I’m not sure where to begin.

6. Those Who Ignore History…

:lol Is this guy serious? He sounds like a Catholic, picking and choosing from the Bible. I’m sorry, you can’t disregard history in almost every other point your making – and then list a specific historical event as one of your points.

7. People Want Technology that’s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time

I’m not following the short-view theory for these formats. Do people really feel that in order for them to be successful they have take off right away – and basically replace DVD? I’m quite sure that is not the expectation by anyone.

8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)

See #7

9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn’t Help

I suppose that isn’t helping, but as better an better content is shown off at stores – and spread via work-of-mouth, etc … does it matter in the long-view?

Think of it this way. Bush got re-elected

10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete?

If rolled out effectively, this certainly could be competition. While I love the idea of the service, I certainly hope it does not become some sort of replacement for physical media. There is no way the video and audio quality will be comparable to good transfers … not for a very long time.

If the iPod has told us anything though … this could be ‘trouble’ for the new formats.

 

[ConsumerSquare]

Hopefully "animated menus" will be a casualty of this format war business.

 

[koam]

So what is going to take its place.

The correct answer is DVD. Sorry but we transitioned to DVD just a few years ago (2003ish was when DVD took over), we're not moving to HD just yet. It's too complicated, it's too expensive, it's not a big difference and we're not going to rebuy our collections. When HD gets standardized (i.e only one resolution), they remove these 50 different types of wires, cable is stricly in HD then they can provide us with HD movies and we'll embrace it.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Granted I'm no expert on the subject. But, why was that dude knocking WiMax? Seems to me that's the future for all internet access. Are they just not able to get high enough speeds or something? (although I've read that they think they can get 75 Gbps ??? )

 

[Kintaro]

on the bolded point; I think this is another facet that ties into HDTV adoption. Most HDTVs are widescreen. As more and more pickup HDTVs and as it becomes the absolute standard in the next 5+ years, more and more people will be expecting widescreen.

DVD did have a lot going for it... but at the same time, it had a huge draw back in that people had to restart their libraries. For Bluray and HDDVD, I think the fact that they're backwards compatible (and even enhances) will help a lot of people just start to flow into HD media so to speak... instead of buying new DVDs, they simply pick up new HD discs.

With prices been similar ($30 RRP for BDs, DVDs and HDDVDs; $10-20 sale prices) there just isn't much reason to NOT pick up the HD version (if they have the appropriate player. And with the PS3; A LOT of people will).

That's a good point on the TV front. They really need to hurry up though and get the prices down. And I mean DOWN. The same people who want Full Screen DVDs, won't pay anywhere close to $1k for a TV. Get everything standardized (inputs, resolutions, etc) and go from there. Real now, there's too much confusion and not worth the price of admission for people. I not only say that for the masses, I say that for myself too. So many formats, rumored formats, blah blah blah.

When DVD hit, I think people were ready to restart their libraries. Not only restart, but since then, they've been supplemented to death. Which is a good thing. I know I was happy to restart my library. Not happy enough to rebuy them AGAIN in HD though (since I KNOW these companies will try it. FU, move on.)

At any rate, it's all wait and see, with a lot of ifs and buts. w/e, I'm good for now.

 

[Phoenix]

HD digital download

Digital download - maybe. HD digital downloads? You'll be waiting for that one. Those files are HUGE to move and will saturate the hell out of the available bandwidth to make them available for mass market.

 

[Nerevar]

Digital download - maybe. HD digital downloads? You'll be waiting for that one. Those files are HUGE to move and will saturate the hell out of the available bandwidth to make them available for mass market.

I think it's a fair point though if you look at the mainstream adoption rate for DVDs, something that almost unquestionably offered far more to the average consumer than high def discs. I'll be amazed if the adoption rate of HD discs is anywhere close to that of DVD after 10 years, and by that point I expect fiber to the curb to be a reality, especially in the wealthy areas that are going to be the biggest consumers of HD content.

 

[Phoenix]

I thought the whole point of next gen optical disks was to limit piracy and have movies look better than HDTV broadcasts. I mean why buy the DVD of Alias, when the HD-DVD broadcast looks better.

This man is on the right track. Right now there are a lot of people who are complaining because:

a) They have a metric ton of DVDs and they can't get over the fact there will be a better version out so soon

b) They still believe that HD sets are 20 years off in the future

c) They don't understand that HD as a format isn't going anywhere. 1080p is here to stay and one of these formats will be the delivery mechanism

d) There are no near term competitors with anywhere near enough financial backing to dethrone either one.

e) They haven't noticed the 'other' fight that is taking place. There is a reason why there was much infighting about the technology that would drive the interface for the new players. What people don't realize is that these aren't your mothers DVD players. These machines are really slim PCs and via the UI APIs have been designed to actually run programs. Begun this living room war has...


If neither format succeeds, then HD optical will not succeed. Its really that simple.

 

[Nerevar]

If neither format succeeds, then HD optical will not succeed. Its really that simple.

I think this point needs to be reiterated. Was it Gates who said that DVD was the last optical format that you'll use? We're at a pretty big crossroads right now, and either DVD or HD-DVD / Blu-Ray is going to be the last optical format we see.

 

[Phoenix]

I think this point needs to be reiterated. Was it Gates who said that DVD was the last optical format that you'll use? We're at a pretty big crossroads right now, and either DVD or HD-DVD / Blu-Ray is going to be the last optical format we see.

Pretty much. On the roadmap there really isn't much time for a "third" format before the big jump to digital downloads. This next generation format really represents everything we need for the forseeable future.

Bill Gates, however, has never been a true visionary in this sense. He tends to see the end of the road in places where it certainly isn't guaranteed or make sense. It didn't make sense for DVD to be the last optical format because we were already on the verge of HD. We knew 1080 was coming down the pipe and we were just waiting for displays to catch up. Is there stuff beyond 1080p? Sure, but by the time they come - the format will be encrypted DRM'd digital transfer.

 

[gofreak]

I think this point needs to be reiterated. Was it Gates who said that DVD was the last optical format that you'll use?

No, he said HD-DVD/Blu-ray would probably be the last optical disc formats (oft misinterpreted as him saying they would fail). He's quite possibly right.

 

[AgentOtaku]

all I want is for "FULLSCREEN" to end.....

 

[MrToughPants]

HD digital download

That shit will never fly.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Fiber to the curb will never be cost effective enough to bury it in the ground to service existing neighborhoods, subdivisions, etc. And let's face it, that will always be a significant percentage of the potential customer base.

The only market you'll see it in is in new development projects.

That's why IMO WiMax will be huge. Nobody answered my question though - is WiMax supposed to be slow?

 

[tambourine]

I really can't believe that purely digital movies in files over the Internet will ever prevail upon video on optical disc, or any other future physical storage format. Bill Gates said that as a bold statement because he'd have a huge financial interest to see disc players die to get a bigger slice of the movie distribution pie.

I find that utopic; of course, there's the issue of bandwith. One must have a high-speed Internet connection, and even at that it can takes hours to download a low-quality video file. Imagine 1080p flicks in HD! Plus many consumers have a download limit, they'd have to pay for bandwith too?

Consumers IMO will always hang onto their physical copies bought in stores, instead of virtual strings of zeros and ones that don't even exist.

 

[pestul]

Despite a lot of strong arguments being presented her (by users), I think digital delivery really is the future (within 10yrs). I know it's hard to think of it happening so rapidly, but then again in 1993 when we were all using dialup modems to play doom, could we really picture the the Internet as it is now?

 

[Nerevar]

Fiber to the curb will never be cost effective enough to bury it in the ground to service existing neighborhoods, subdivisions, etc. And let's face it, that will always be a significant percentage of the potential customer base.

The only market you'll see it in is in new development projects.

uhhh, FIOS already services a large number of existing developed neighborhoods. The parts of Newton, MA that they service, for example, are not "new subdivisions". Verizon is rolling it out by simply targetting the wealthiest areas (i.e. the ones who can afford it and are most likely to pay), not by targeting new subdivisions exclusively.

 

[open_mouth_]

What I hope happens... HD-DVD and Blu-Ray seperately carve out decent niche markets, but fail to gain the mass market. Either hybrid discs OR players become standard so that all movie studios back one disc and one name (HD-DVD is a better name, imo) so that when prices drop to sub $200 levels, those with HDTV sets can take the plunge like they did with DVD sets a few years back. This way, DVD's are still the main movie medium, but HD-DVD/BR are at a 20-30% growing market share so everyone "wins" basically. By the time HD and regular DVD sales go 50-50, digital downloads become more popular and start building it's own niche.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Yeah, you're right - its a niche market.

Tell you what - come down here to ATL, look at the thousands of existing houses in the hundreds of existing neighborhoods, and tell me how cost effective it is for Bellsouth to bury thousands of miles of fiber *just on the chance* that someone on a particular street will pay $100/month to get access to a 25 Mbps (or whatever it is) fatpipe.

Its simply not gonna happen.

 

[XMonkey]

The correct answer is DVD. Sorry but we transitioned to DVD just a few years ago (2003ish was when DVD took over), we're not moving to HD just yet. It's too complicated, it's too expensive, it's not a big difference and we're not going to rebuy our collections. When HD gets standardized (i.e only one resolution), they remove these 50 different types of wires, cable is stricly in HD then they can provide us with HD movies and we'll embrace it.

No, the correct answer is not DVD. If you regularly watch HD broadcasts on TV you start to realize what you're missing with DVD. HDTV prices have already taken a dive compared to 2-3 years ago and in the next 2-3 years I think you'll b hard pressed to even find a non-HDTV when you go out to buy your next TV (even at the low prices some people are only willing to pay). HD broadcasts are going to be key and it's a shame that it is still taking so long to convert channels over.

It's not too complicated. Seriously, it's just like hooking anything else up. Yes, it is expensive, but prices will come down just like they did for DVD players. The disc prices aren't even that much higher than normal DVDs which is a great sign. You don't have to rebuy your collections either, HDDVD and Bluray players play DVDs and upconvert them too.

I'm not sure why there is this disconnect with the transfer to DVDs and the transfer to HD discs. No one should honestly expect to suddenly wake up one day and all of the sudden your DVDs are no longer being released and you're forced to buy HD discs only. The transition process is going to be similar. For those of us with HDTVs who desperately want HD movie content, the launch of Bluray/HDDVD couldn't come soon enough and in those next couple of years when the early adopters have worn out being guinea pigs, 1080p is more prevalent, and player prices are equal with DVD players, the rest of you can make the move to HD discs (and I have a feeling you'll want to when that time comes).

 

[karasu]

Digital Downloads are totally impractical. If Joe consumer can't handle a new better quality disc format, why in gods name will he be able handle lengthy downloads that will be no higher in resolution than the new disc format/storage limitations? It makes no sense. At least one of these formats is going to take off, but that takes time. The players aren't even being released with the general public in mind yet.

 

[Nerevar]

Yeah, you're right - its a niche market.

Tell you what - come down here to ATL, look at the thousands of existing houses in the hundreds of existing neighborhoods, and tell me how cost effective it is for Bellsouth to bury thousands of miles of fiber *just on the chance* that someone on a particular street will pay $100/month to get access to a 25 Mbps (or whatever it is) fatpipe.

Its simply not gonna happen.

Blah blah blah. Anecdotal evidence for the win, or whatever.

Regardless, it is happening. Verizon is rolling out fiber to the curb in neighborhoods that can afford it and delivering voice, data, and HD television. My point is simply that "those who can afford fiber to the curb" also probably has a high rate of crossover with "those in the HD content market".

 

[Bloodwake]

all I want is for "FULLSCREEN" to end.....

HALLELUJAH

PLEASE GET THE FULLSCREEN SHIT OUT OF MY ****ING FACE.

Thank you.

 

[browds11]

Digital Downloads are totally impractical. If Joe consumer can't handle a new better quality disc format, why in gods name will he be able handle lengthy downloads that will be no higher in resolution than the new disc format/storage limitations?

Because of convenience. Having the ability to download every movie ever made in any language™ without having to get your fat-ass off of the couch is an incredible advance that will cause people to move off of DVDs. An imperceptible resolution bump ain’t going to do it.

Granted I'm no expert on the subject. But, why was that dude knocking WiMax? Seems to me that's the future for all internet access. Are they just not able to get high enough speeds or something? (although I've read that they think they can get 75 Gbps ??? )

Wikipedia says it only gets about 128KB/s http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimax

That shit will never fly.

It already is beginning to. In only a few months iTunes will become an online moving picture store, the only thing holding it up is Apple’s insistence that every movie cost $9.99—they’ll lose that stupid battle—and when they do, DL movies will hit mainstream in a big way.

It’ll only be a little while longer for HD DL to hit in a big way too.

You don't have to rebuy your collections either, HDDVD and Bluray players play DVDs and upconvert them too.

And that’s the point. People bought DVD versions of movies they already owned on VHS not because DVD players weren’t backwards compatible, but because after using DVD people couldn’t stand to use VHS—it was unwatchable crap after seeing DVD. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray don’t do that, as you admit. DVD still looks good, and offers the same convenience HD-DVD and Blu-Ray do.

So why blow your rent money on upgrading?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Have you seen the quality of iTunes MS video? It's sub-DVD by quite a ways. They need to get to DVD standards *and* work out a deal for movies before they'll replace DVDs, let alone get to HD quality.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Its not anecdotal evidence.

Its a hell of a lot cheaper for companies like Bellsouth to develop their existing DSL infrastructure than to go off and start burying thousands of miles of fiber. Some of the stuff I've heard is that they have started to make pretty good advances with increasing the speed of DSL. I've heard they think they can get it up to 24 Mbps (though the range is a lot lower than 18,000 feet). But, that's still not as fast as fiber or the 100 Mbps that is capable on cable.

Anyway, I do agree with your main point though.

 

[browds11]

Have you seen the quality of iTunes MS video? It's sub-DVD by quite a ways. They need to get to DVD standards *and* work out a deal for movies before they'll replace DVDs, let alone get to HD quality.

Inch by inch life's a cinch, yard by yard it's very hard.

It's only the first step, the first revolution of a freight train's wheels--the freight train that's bearing down on optical media. No, actually more like a bullet train.

 

[XMonkey]

And that’s the point. People bought DVD versions of movies they already owned on VHS not because DVD players weren’t backwards compatible, but because after using DVD people couldn’t stand to use VHS—it was unwatchable crap after seeing DVD. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray don’t do that, as you admit. DVD still looks good, and offers the same convenience HD-DVD and Blu-Ray do.

So why blow your rent money on upgrading?

Because it will reach a point where going to Bluray/HDDVD will be as cheap as DVD is now?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

It’ll only be a little while longer for HD DL to hit in a big way too.

The only point of contention I have is your definition of "a little while longer."

I'm sure it will happen eventually-- but will not achieve mainstream penetration (or selection) for years and years.