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[xabre]

I'm kind of wondering though - if it gets within a certain distance of earth, would the earth's gravitational field pull it in?

Only Jinx would know of the answer to such a fundamental question. Ask Jinx.

 

[neptunes]

Lets finish up and call it a night shall we?

 

[Echoes of Pink]

This is probably why Bush wants to expand NASA's budget... :lol

 

[impirius]

This is probably why Bush wants to expand NASA's budget... :lol

M-A-R-S

Mars, bitches!

 

[Marty Chinn]

I am actually kind of afraid... we obviously doesn't have the neccesary technology to destroy such asteroid even in 2029. I do not want a huge catastrophe to happen on Earth while I am living.

Actually, I saw a documentary on this topic about the research being done to prevent such an event. Apparently we do have the technology to stop it given that we know far enough in advance about it. By detonating a series of exposions, we can use the shockwave to push the trajectory enough to miss Earth.

 

[Socreges]

This is probably why Bush wants to expand NASA's budget... :lol

"After defeating education woes with No Child Left Behind and
Muslim extremists with the hugely successful War on
Terror, we face a new enemy."

"ASTROID"

"TERRISTS."

"But we must not fear."

"For we are a strong nation! And united as one, in relinquishing
many of our rights and keeping this new threat on our mind
at all times, we will be victorious!"

"God bless America."

"And no one else, LOL AM I RITE??"

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

i'll be 48 by then and the world (or at least asia ) would be mine..... i'll just escape in my pod while the rest die horrible deaths..... are we still gonna be posting at the forum by then?

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

edit: damn double post. teirasias (sp?) works at NASA. but i forget in what dept he is at.

 

[Dilbert]

I'm kind of wondering though - if it gets within a certain distance of earth, would the earth's gravitational field pull it in? or pull it in to orbit? Might that shorten the odds of an impact further? Probably is a silly question, I'm not very knowledgeable about these things.

As it approaches, the gravitational field of the Earth will alter the course of this object. The outcome of that pull will depend on the object's mass and velocity, though. I suspect that the "1 in 300" figure is an estimation based on running physics simulations with the range of uncertainties in those quantities, although I'd love to hear about the detailed derivation of such a number.

To understand what's going on, imagine that "empty" space is like a flat countertop. Objects with mass, like the Earth, "deform" that flat surface because of their gravitational field. You might imagine that to look like a kitchen sink set into the countertop, with the Earth itself where the drain hole might be. Now, imagine that an asteroid is like a marble rolling along the countertop. Does it go into the hole? Well, if the marble is rolling along a path which doesn't touch the sink (e.g. inside the gravity well of the Earth), then it won't be significantly affected. If the marble is rolling slowly enough and it goes into the sink, it will spin around one or more times before falling into the drain...bad times for the Earth, in our analogy. If the marble is rolling very quickly (which is usually the case), then it will enter the sink and pop out the other side with more or less the same speed, but at a different trajectory because of the curvature of the sink. Of course, if a fast marble happens to be aimed close enough to the center of the sink, then it will be curved directly into the drain...again, bad times for Earth. There is a special case where the speed and trajectory of the marble are such that it will spin around the drain forever, but never fall in (assuming no frictional loss)...but the conditions required for orbit are fairly precise, and the other scenarios are FAR more likely.

Real space-time gets far more complicated to imagine (the deformity due to the presence of mass happens in four dimensions), but it's conceptually similar.

We have posters from EGM, EA, the CIA, etc...why don't we got anyone from NASA?

I'm pretty sure we have at least one poster from NASA.

By then I will be 44 and be more concerned about looking like a MILF instead of worrying about some asteroid that will never appear.

What's the difference? One way or the other, SOMEONE's world is gonna get rocked.

 

[cvxfreak]

Stupid to the third power.

 

[All Hail C-Webb]

i'll be 48 by then and the world (or at least asia ) would be mine..... i'll just escape in my pod while the rest die horrible deaths..... are we still gonna be posting at the forum by then?

Well, if you keep repeating the same thing maybe you still will be posting at that time.
Those Bush pictures were hilarious, props to whoever made that little story, too lazy to check.
If an Asteroid would hit, I would hope it hits either directly in the northern or southern hemisphere. If i hits in the North, to Australia I go, and if it hits in the SOuth I can invite hot Australian women to my house, and promise them shelter in exchange for lots of sex.
I would like to have some sexright now, doesn't look like it will happen tonight though. There are hookers around the corner, but I've only fucked a hooker once, and since then my dick and balls have been abnormaly itchy, I'm still holding out hope that it's jock itch. I should find out what the symotoms are. I have two little dots near my head, hope it's nothing serious. Anyway, they hookers here are all black, and the last girl I slept with was black. I have a rule that I never slee with 2 girls of the same race in a row. I would like to try Asian next. That might happen because there is an Asian whore apartment 2 floors below mine, but it would be weird fucking a prostitute in my building, but not my apartment.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

As it approaches, the gravitational field of the Earth will alter the course of this object. The outcome of that pull will depend on the object's mass and velocity, though. I suspect that the "1 in 300" figure is an estimation based on running physics simulations with the range of uncertainties in those quantities, although I'd love to hear about the detailed derivation of such a number.

To understand what's going on, imagine that "empty" space is like a flat countertop. Objects with mass, like the Earth, "deform" that flat surface because of their gravitational field. You might imagine that to look like a kitchen sink set into the countertop, with the Earth itself where the drain hole might be. Now, imagine that an asteroid is like a marble rolling along the countertop. Does it go into the hole? Well, if the marble is rolling along a path which doesn't touch the sink (e.g. inside the gravity well of the Earth), then it won't be significantly affected. If the marble is rolling slowly enough and it goes into the sink, it will spin around one or more times before falling into the drain...bad times for the Earth, in our analogy. If the marble is rolling very quickly (which is usually the case), then it will enter the sink and pop out the other side with more or less the same speed, but at a different trajectory because of the curvature of the sink. Of course, if a fast marble happens to be aimed close enough to the center of the sink, then it will be curved directly into the drain...again, bad times for Earth. There is a special case where the speed and trajectory of the marble are such that it will spin around the drain forever, but never fall in (assuming no frictional loss)...but the conditions required for orbit are fairly precise, and the other scenarios are FAR more likely.

Real space-time gets far more complicated to imagine (the deformity due to the presence of mass happens in four dimensions), but it's conceptually similar.


I'm pretty sure we have at least one poster from NASA.


What's the difference? One way or the other, SOMEONE's world is gonna get rocked.

just tell us what to do doctor!!!! i mean, what would be the best scenario for earth? the 'slow" marble?

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

Well, if you keep repeating the same thing maybe you still will be posting at that time.
Those Bush pictures were hilarious, props to whoever made that little story, too lazy to check.
If an Asteroid would hit, I would hope it hits either directly in the northern or southern hemisphere. If i hits in the North, to Australia I go, and if it hits in the SOuth I can invite hot Australian women to my house, and promise them shelter in exchange for lots of sex.
I would like to have some sexright now, doesn't look like it will happen tonight though. There are hookers around the corner, but I've only fucked a hooker once, and since then my dick and balls have been abnormaly itchy, I'm still holding out hope that it's jock itch. I should find out what the symotoms are. I have two little dots near my head, hope it's nothing serious. Anyway, they hookers here are all black, and the last girl I slept with was black. I have a rule that I never slee with 2 girls of the same race in a row. I would like to try Asian next. That might happen because there is an Asian whore apartment 2 floors below mine, but it would be weird fucking a prostitute in my building, but not my apartment.

that's it you made the list. unless you introduce me to this asian gal?

There are hookers around the corner, but I've only fucked a hooker once, and since then my dick and balls have been abnormaly itchy, I'm still holding out hope that it's jock itch. I should find out what the symotoms are. I have two little dots near my head, hope it's nothing serious.

you have nothing to worry about. you're just going to die before the asteroid hits.

 

[teiresias]

Everyone needs to calm down. We at NASA have been in contact with the Asteroid, and Galuf assures us he will land it as gently as possible. That damn ExDeath is the bastard you all need to worry about. That damn crystal buried in the middle-east is about to crack open!

 

[Dilbert]

just tell us what to do doctor!!!! i mean, what would be the best scenario for earth? the 'slow" marble?

I think the "answer" is the same in each case: Build an engine on the side of the object, and push it into a trajectory which won't result in a collision with Earth.

Of course, it's not that simple for a variety of reasons...not the least of which is that getting a spaceship (with engineering equipment) from Earth to the required intercept point requires a) some pretty kick-ass spaceship design and b) a LOT of advance warning. By the time we're SURE that this object would be a problem...it will probably be too late to do anything about it. Also, attaching an engine to an arbitrary chuck of space debris may not be possible because of variations in surface composition. If you anchor your engine in a big chunk of ice or loose rock, it's going to go off into space once it starts generating force. Last (but not least for the people involved), I doubt any astronauts are coming back from that mission.

 

[Master Z]

Oh, lighten up! Rampant AIDS, civil war, and devastating poverty :lol :lol... how is that not funny?? :lol

I'm sorry, I just don't find anything funny about that. It's like trying to find some humour in the 9/11 attacks...I just can't. It's too sad of a situation and it seems wrong to just laugh at it. Ignore this post if you were being sarcastic.

 

[Phoenix]

Hah, I was just going to work out if it was a Friday.

Surely within 25 years we could come up with some way of diverting it/destroying it.

Heh.... considering how much trouble we're getting trying to get funding for shooting down ICBMs, I'd have to wonder. Most NASA operations take over a decade to stage so if we're going to have a chance at it, we need to get started.

 

[Docpan]

Just nuke the fucking thing into oblivion.

 

[nubbe]

Let's name it Jesus III

 

[xsarien]

Just nuke the fucking thing into oblivion.

Because it's that easy. Our brand-spankin' new, missile defense system (built into the form of a giant Ronald Reagan, kind of like MegaMaid) can only SOMETIMES "win" in scripted events. I have no faith that the U.S. government can manage to aim a nuke at an object moving at a constant rate, have it hit, and have it blow up on time.

 

[Dilbert]

Just nuke the fucking thing into oblivion.

1) We don't have a delivery system to hit a moving target at that range.

2) Blowing it up -- even if possible -- would only change the impact from a single large hit to multiple smaller hits. The total amount of energy transferred would not change significantly -- only the pieces blown "sideways" enough to miss the planet would not hit us. However, some pieces would be accelerated towards us by the explosion and would therefore have more kinetic energy than before.

 

[MIMIC]

From USA Today

That's bigger than the space rock that carved the Barringer Meteor Crater in Arizona, and bigger than one that exploded in the air above Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square miles of forest. If an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 hit the Earth, it would do considerable localized or regional damage. It would not cause damage on a global scale.

 

[Rocket9]

There's going to be a lot of women wanting to lose their virginity on the 12th. Should be a fun day.

Im gonna be like 50 but who cares, Viagra will be twice as powerful.

 

[Phoenix]

There's going to be a lot of women wanting to lose their virginity on the 12th. Should be a fun day.

Im gonna be like 50 but who cares, Viagra will be twice as powerful.

Strip clubs will be filled to capacity the world over.

 

[Phoenix]

Just nuke the fucking thing into oblivion.

Even if we had a delivery system, which we don't, we have no real clues as to the composition of the asteroid so we have no idea what would happen if we launched a bunch of nukes at it. In any event, we wouldn't be able to nuke it into oblivion. The best we could hope to do is provide enough energy to one of its axis to deflect it away from an earth trajectory (and hopefully into the sun or something).

 

[Firest0rm]

NASA needs to hire some of the people at GAF they seem to know a shitload about this stuff. I guess it comes from watching all the Star Trek episodes.

 

[Phoenix]

NASA needs to hire some of the people at GAF they seem to know a shitload about this stuff. I guess it comes from watching all the Star Trek episodes.

Discovery, Learning, and Science channels for me

 

[Heezzi]

I am actually kind of afraid... we obviously doesn't have the neccesary technology to destroy such asteroid even in 2029. I do not want a huge catastrophe to happen on Earth while I am living.

Gee, I guess USA's 20,000 nukes won't work.

 

[Phoenix]

Gee, I guess USA's 20,000 nukes won't work.

Even if we had a million of them, the asteroid would be entering the atmosphere when they hit. ICBMs are designed specifically to 'usually' hit targets on earth. They are pretty much useless for objects in deep space (where we'd have to use them).

http://www.stardrive.org/psdi.shtml

 

[MrPing1000]

Time to get started on that giant trampolene

 

[NetMapel]

Even if we had a million of them, the asteroid would be entering the atmosphere when they hit. ICBMs are designed specifically to 'usually' hit targets on earth. They are pretty much useless for objects in deep space (where we'd have to use them).

http://www.stardrive.org/psdi.shtml

Precisely, we do not pocess the technology to blow asteroids up like in Armogeddon or Deep Impact. We simply do not have the technology to aim missles at asteroids with our current targeting system, and I seriously doubt we will pocess such technology within 15 years. Farther more, landing on an asteroid like in Armogeddon is so ridiculously sci-fi it pains me to see how people actually believe we can do that.

 

[Doom_Bringer]

"After defeating education woes with No Child Left Behind and
Muslim extremists with the hugely successful War on
Terror, we face a new enemy."

"ASTROID"

"TERRISTS."

"But we must not fear."

"For we are a strong nation! And united as one, in relinquishing
many of our rights and keeping this new threat on our mind
at all times, we will be victorious!"

"God bless America."

"And no one else, LOL AM I RITE??"

lol that is just awesome! :lol

good work

 

[maharg]

I wonder too...

We have posters from EGM, EA, the CIA, etc...why don't we got anyone from NASA?

I'm kinda excited. If it hits us, ok, we're pretty much toast, but if it misses it's gonna look really cool. Hopefully by then I can afford a 35 terapixel camera.

Doesn't olimaro's father supposedly work at NASA?

 

[Lathentar]

Precisely, we do not pocess the technology to blow asteroids up like in Armogeddon or Deep Impact. We simply do not have the technology to aim missles at asteroids with our current targeting system, and I seriously doubt we will pocess such technology within 15 years. Farther more, landing on an asteroid like in Armogeddon is so ridiculously sci-fi it pains me to see how people actually believe we can do that.

If we narrowed down this certainty there would be an absurd amount of money put into space defense (I can't believe I wrote that). The research and technology could be developed in a decade even the GLOBAL funding that would become available.

 

[Lord Error]

I don't know if this is new, but the chance now seems to be increased to 1/45 (97.8% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth)

 

[NetMapel]

If we narrowed down this certainty there would be an absurd amount of money put into space defense (I can't believe I wrote that). The research and technology could be developed in a decade even the GLOBAL funding that would become available.

I would really like to think that with a huge asteroid coming towards us, threatening to destroy a large part of Earth, that the nations around the world would unite and find a way to fix this problem. However, the world doesn't work like that. With politics preventing nations to work with each others in the first place, nations just don't give a crap about what happened to other nations. Also, we must take into factors that with so many nations in the world, how many of them are truely capable of investing time, money and human capitals to help solve the potential asteroid problem. World War I, II and the Cold War only showed how selfish every nations are, and they simply don't want to do things that could possibly benefit another nation.

 

[hiryu]

Isn't this the year the War against the Machines starts?

 

[Lathentar]

I would really like to think that with a huge asteroid coming towards us, threatening to destroy a large part of Earth, that the nations around the world would unite and find a way to fix this problem. However, the world doesn't work like that. With politics preventing nations to work with each others in the first place, nations just don't give a crap about what happened to other nations. Also, we must take into factors that with so many nations in the world, how many of them are truely capable of investing time, money and human capitals to help solve the potential asteroid problem. World War I, II and the Cold War only showed how selfish every nations are, and they simply don't want to do things that could possibly benefit another nation.

Uhh... the powerful, space bound nations would help out and contribute. Basically look at all the countries helping with the ISS and have them provide money for research. It would work.

 

[GamerDiva]

What's the difference? One way or the other, SOMEONE's world is gonna get rocked.

:lol :lol :lol I hope I'm married and still with the same guy in 2029. I still want to look hot though.

 

[Lathentar]

:lol :lol :lol I hope I'm married and still with the same guy in 2029. I still want to look hot though.

Well, are you hot now? That might be the first place to start.

 

[GamerDiva]

Well, are you hot now? That might be the first place to start.

Yes I am but keeping it hot is the hard thing to do. I've seen many aunts, friends of my mom and dad etc that let themselves go after getting married and I've vowed to never let that happen to myself.

 

[FightyF]

This brings up another interesting question.

If it was confirmed within the next few years that there is a possibility it will hit Earth...do you think that your respective government has a responsibility to put money towards a fund that would R&D any solution to this potential crisis? The problem is that this crisis may not even occur.

Well...why should we care...we'll let our grandchildren take care of that. Most of us will be retired by then...posting on GA from our retirement homes in Florida.

 

[capslock]

This freedom hating asteroid cannot trusted to run its own course, invasion is the only recourse.

 

[Lathentar]

This brings up another interesting question.

If it was confirmed within the next few years that there is a possibility it will hit Earth...do you think that your respective government has a responsibility to put money towards a fund that would R&D any solution to this potential crisis? The problem is that this crisis may not even occur.

Well...why should we care...we'll let our grandchildren take care of that. Most of us will be retired by then...posting on GA from our retirement homes in Florida.

Of course put money into R&D. Even if the asteroid threat never pans out, you have a solution or research for the future. The R&D would produce many other valuable produces.

 

[Socreges]

Five bucks says GamerDiva is:

1) not hot
2) a dude

 

[Lathentar]

Yes I am but keeping it hot is the hard thing to do. I've seen many aunts, friends of my mom and dad etc that let themselves go after getting married and I've vowed to never let that happen to myself.

I just looked in the Picture thread... you win.

 

[NLB2]

1) We don't have a delivery system to hit a moving target at that range.

Wait wait wait. We have the technology to send an engine to the asteroid but not a bomb? How is the rocket technology any different?

2) Blowing it up -- even if possible -- would only change the impact from a single large hit to multiple smaller hits. The total amount of energy transferred would not change significantly -- only the pieces blown "sideways" enough to miss the planet would not hit us. However, some pieces would be accelerated towards us by the explosion and would therefore have more kinetic energy than before.

How about a series of explosions not meant to destroy the asteroid but instead to change its trajectory?

 

[Dilbert]

Wait wait wait. We have the technology to send an engine to the asteroid but not a bomb? How is the rocket technology any different?

We don't have the technology for either at this point, but the comment was made with respect to the idea of using an ICBM or missile from the TMD system to intercept the asteroid. Those systems are not designed to launch something permanently out of orbit.

How about a series of explosions not meant to destroy the asteroid but instead to change its trajectory?

How would the force be transmitted from the explosion to the asteroid? Space is a vacuum. The shockwaves associated with explosions on Earth are compression waves in our atmosphere, or whatever the surrounding medium happens to be. Other than radiation pressure (which is VERY slight in a mechanical sense), there is no way that a fission or fusion explosion in free space would affect the object.

 

[NLB2]

What happens to all of the energy from the nuclear explosion?

 

[Dilbert]

What happens to all of the energy from the nuclear explosion?

Radiation.

There are some theories that the radiation from a nuclear blast might provide a push by heating the surface layer on an asteroid and causing the release of gas on the illuminated side, thus nudging the asteroid onto another path. Everything I've read seems highly speculative, and obviously you'd need to be sure that the surface layer was ice or something else susceptible to this kind of effect. If it was solid rock or iron, it wouldn't work.

You might find this article interesting as well.