Unlike last year this year is top heavy. The #1 seeds combine for 9 losses, the fewest since 2008- the last and only time all four #1 seeds met for the Final Four.
Last year I picked Florida, but wasn't comfortable with it, yet I also didn't see anyone else who stood out. This year I'll be genuinely shocked if a 1 or 2 seed doesn't win it all. Heck, I think you can even toss out Virginia (no offense and no Anderson), Duke (weak defense), and Kansas (just a weak #2 seed).
That leaves Kentucky, Villanova, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, and Arizona as the serious contenders. One of them should take it. Think I'd even bet against Kentucky too, just because it's so hard to finish undefeated.