2024 is easily viable. Last of Us is just a remake. Factions is a multiplayer game made by the separate multiplayer team and already has been in development for a while. 2024 would be 4 years after Last of Us 2. Remember Naughty Dog has expanded since then as well. The gap between Unchartd 4 and Last of Us 2 was also 4 years and they had Lost Legacy expansion between then.
Yeah except..
1 - Big blockbuster singleplayer PS5 games will take even longer to make.
2 - They began early work on TLOU2 in 2014, and it was a known sequel.
3 - Their next singleplayer game is most likely a new IP, and those usually take longer.
4 - TLOU multiplayer isn't being made by a separate team. Evan Wells said they don't have multiple big teams. 1 game at a time.
5 - Factor in a loss in productivity / efficiency due to working from home for periods of development, unlike past games.
Whatever their next singleplayer game is, it won't go into full production until after they ship their ports and the multiplayer game. Add on about 2.5-3 years after that starts. So that's roughly 2022-2023 start date to 2025-2026 release.
Only caveat here is they could simply be making another Uncharted: The Lost Legacy game. Like an 8-10 hour new Uncharted. That could definitely be made faster. Its possible too, since Lost Legacy's creative director returned to Naughty Dog last year. And we know Sony had Bend Studio doing early design ideas on a new Uncharted. It would certainly be the safe option. Just gotta wait and see.