Support NeoGAF

[cja]

Spiderman 2 sell-through of 1 million unit in North America after three weeks.

Anticipate Xbox Doom III to be released in December quarter (for financial modelling purposes) but id have the final say.

Deadrush (survival horror/GTA style game shown at E3) has been canned.

THUG2 expected to be released mid-October, not worried about clashing with GTA.
Slate of games to be released at $49.99 this year.

Activision expect to have at least one title ready for NDS launch, two for PSP. No new info on software cost model, yet anticipate PSP to have a more lucrative operating model [than GBA].

New games expected between April 05 and March 06 (financial year '06):

True Crimes
Call of Duty
Tony Hawks
Quake
Shrek
Spiderman
Ironman
Fantastic Four
Madagascar (dreamworks ip)
The Movies
New Neversoft Title


End of June next-gen hardware base (inc. handhelds) = 62.9m. Anticipate this to rise to 73m by calendar year end.

System -- Current installed base -- year end projection

PS2 -- 24.2m -- 28m
Xbox -- 9.2m -- 11m
GC -- 7.6m -- 9m
GBA -- 22m -- 25m
(Yes, these numbers don't add up with the total numbers, I double checked)


links
Activision Q1 results PR
Neversoft new property PR
for reference FY 2006 is April '05 to March '06 for Activision
Activision Earnings Conference Call (Q1 2005)

 

[kaching]

(Yes, these numbers don't add up with the total numbers, I double checked)

Sure they do. Triple check

Thanks for the details from this call.

 

[jarrod]

I thought Dead Rush had some positive response... what happened?

 

[cja]

A bit more info on the Neversoft title. It is original ip (ie brand new unlicensed property), isn't a sports game and is multi-platform

Sure they do. Triple check

0.1m out on the current installed base! Which could always be thanks to rounding of numbers or n-gage... um... okay I admit to adding the totals up wrong, I double checked what Activision said but not my math .

I thought Dead Rush had some positive response... what happened?

Just said that after feedback from E3 they didn't feel it could be a really big franchise for them. The team are now working on different projects.

 

[Ferrarisimo]

Fantastic Four

How on God's green Earth is that game still alive? Is Seven Studios still working on it? If so, this would be pushing the fourth year in development.

 

[bogg]

Good to know that Neversoft are working on a totaly new game. And hopefully Quake 4 will rock!!

 

[jarrod]

Sure they do. Triple check

PS2 -- 24.2m -- 28m
Xbox -- 9.2m -- 11m
GC -- 7.6m -- 9m
GBA -- 22.2m -- 25m
Total -- 63.2m -- 73m

...I think their expectations are too low though. That would mean sales for the next six months...

PS2 -- 3.8m
Xbox -- 1.8m
GC -- 1.4m
GBA -- 2.8m

...GBA for example should manage 2.8m in Nov/Dec alone (if not more), it'll probably move between 4-6 million for the rest of the year.... everything seems a bit low imo.

 

[IgeL]

Just said that after feedback from E3 they didn't feel it could be a really big franchise for them. The team are now working on different projects.

Rightly so, imho. Only a few good moments in the trailer they showed.

 

[jarrod]

0.1m out on the current installed base! Which could always be thanks to rounding of numbers or n-gage... um... okay I admit to adding the totals up wrong, I double checked what Activision said but not my math .

Their GBA totals are off, it's actually 22.2 million (since they seem to be rounding up on everything). More specifically...

PS2: 24.13m
Xbox: 9.16m
GC: 7.60m
GBA: 22.18m

 

[cja]

PS2 -- 24.2m -- 28m
Xbox -- 9.2m -- 11m
GC -- 7.6m -- 9m
GBA -- 22.2m -- 25m
Total -- 63.2m -- 73m

...I think their expectations are too low though. That would mean sales for the next six months...

PS2 -- 3.8m
Xbox -- 1.8m
GC -- 1.4m
GBA -- 2.8m

...GBA for example should manage 2.8m in Nov/Dec alone (if not more), it'll probably move between 4-5 million for the rest of the year.... everything seems a bit low imo.

I'd say Activision are expecting DS sales to eat into GBA numbers in November and December. Nintendo's own GBA estimates are only 15m for the year. A question from an analyst near the end of the call queried the companies conservative industry growth (8% versus an industry average of 17%) and historically Activision do seem to dampen down expectations for hardware and software. For me only the GBA number looks particularly low, three of the four platforms have sold fewer units for the first half of 2004 than they did 2003 afterall.

 

[Mrbob]

They are overestimating GC sell through through the rest of the year.

 

[Father_Brain]

How on God's green Earth is that game still alive? Is Seven Studios still working on it? If so, this would be pushing the fourth year in development.

Really? Could you give some more info on it? Anyway, they pretty much have to have a game out to tie in with the movie.

 

[DopeyFish]

They are overestimating GC sell through through the rest of the year.

not really, take into account that last year nintendo somehow pulled a larger december than Xbox did. they could take that number in both november and december. Same with Xbox's (especially if it keeps in line with it's 30% growth over last year)

 

[Mrbob]

not really, take into account that last year nintendo somehow pulled a larger december than Xbox did. they could take that number in both november and december. Same with Xbox's (especially if it keeps in line with it's 30% growth over last year)

The only reason it spiked was because of the 99 price point was new and fresh.

Are they going to drop it to 79 this October/November to spike sales again? Because that is what they need to hit 9 million.

 

[cja]

Hoping for a handful of $129 bundles of GC + newly released game. Nintendo need to get away from the bargain bin image they've created for themselves while still being value for money. A $129 pack of GC + Donkey Konga + drums would be good value for the consumer but doesn't hurt Nintendo nearly as much as a $80 GameCube does. $80 looks likely if Nintendo want to compete on userbase.

 

[Marty Chinn]

It's a big shame that Dead Rush was canned. There was a lot of cool stuff shown for it behind closed doors which wasn't evident in the trailer. It was one of my most anticipated titles of 2005 from how it was shaping up.

 

[Subitai]

Damn, they still have PS2 more than doubling the competition. What are MS and Nintendo supposed to do?

 

[jarrod]

The only reason it spiked was because of the 99 price point was new and fresh.

Are they going to drop it to 79 this October/November to spike sales again? Because that is what they need to hit 9 million.

Naw, 1.4 million is easily attainable for the rest of the year, in fact Nintendo will likely move more than that. They'll probably move over a million in Nov/Dec alone, 9 million is in the bag...

 

[jarrod]

I'd say Activision are expecting DS sales to eat into GBA numbers in November and December.

DS will likelly be supply restricted though, given Nintendo only expects to ship 3.5 million worldwide by March 2005. Also at $150-180, I don't really see it eating into the $99 GBASP too much...

 

[BuddyC]

The new Neversoft IP is probably the best news out of that bunch.

 

[Izzy]

Activision expect to have at least one title ready for NDS launch, two for PSP. No new info on software cost model, yet anticipate PSP to have a more lucrative operating model [than GBA]


End of June next-gen hardware base (inc. handhelds) = 62.9m. Anticipate this to rise to 73m by calendar year end.

System -- Current installed base -- year end projection

PS2 -- 24.2m -- 28m
Xbox -- 9.2m -- 11m
GC -- 7.6m -- 9m
GBA -- 22m -- 25m

That sounds pretty realistic. I wonder if Tony Hawk and Spiderman will end up being the two PSP launch titles.

 

[MrPing1000]

New Neversoft Title


wonder what that cud b

 

[DopeyFish]

New Neversoft Title


wonder what that cud b

Chad Muska's Pro Skater

 

[DarienA]

The thread got this far with no one mentioning the sequel True Crimes? Remarkable

 

[jarrod]

That sounds pretty realistic. I wonder if Tony Hawk and Spiderman will end up being the two PSP launch titles.

Probably, I believe Vicarious Visions has already been confirmed to be developing both. They're also doing Spider-Man for DS (which is probably going to be Activision's launch game there).