Once you control for racism the education gap vanishes.
More educated people are just exposed to more stuff that might change their views.
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American National Election Study: Racism motivated Trump voters
- Thread starter Makonero
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More educated people are just exposed to more stuff that might change their views.
Version 3.0
Member
Correct. It's a big mistake to think of them as dumb. They're not. Nor are they less educated as a whole (data suggests they are very slightly less educated, on the whole, than Democrats...well within the margin of error on the studies I've seen, IIRC).
But intelligent people can have emotional blind spots that trump (pun intended) their intellect. And that seems to be rampant among Republican voters.
2Smashed4U
Banned
That's not true. A shitload of people I know who voted Trump voted for Obama.
You can be a racist and still have voted for Obama, believe it or not.
UnemployedVillain
Member
If we look purely at electoral votes, yes, we were destroyed, but if you look at the breakdown of key battleground states the actual margins were incredibly small. I wasn't talking about pure numbers of votes, since Clinton obviously had a few million more, I'm talking about the deciding number of votes in each state/district.
And your point about " We have a big problem when our rural citizens won't be able to get the support they need because of the flight of younger people." seems to assume liberal policies only affect those in urban centers, when there are a large range of social welfare policies that affect people in rural areas just as much. The problem isn't the flight of young people, it's older people voting against their best interests. Messaging is an aspect of that, but even with the proper messaging the strong issue is they've basically been indoctrinated by conservative talk radio, which is essentially propaganda for the right. I'm not sure if messaging can overcome that. In fact, I'd say go as far as saying Bush colossally fucking up was just as big a factor as Obama's messaging. I think people react more to things going badly than things going well.
I'm like 100% sure he was being sarcastic
Arkage
Banned
I briefly skimmed. This is a weird study. For example:
How one can cleanly parse racial resentment, immigration, and diversity into three distinct categories is beyond me, but I may read more in-depth later. This study also mostly focuses on the vote-switchers between parties, or "middle America" as it were. It doesn't seem to address what in Trumps message traditional conservatives found appealing, but rather the characteristics of those who switch votes.
Additionally, the ANES study indicates the scores were worse for Republicans in 2012 than in 2016 for the Symbolic Racial survey. So while middle America became possibly more racist in 2016, Republicans became less so? A strange juxtaposition, and may indicate just how badly Democrats frame their pro-diversity message.
Nate Silver said education level was more important than income level. So it's possible that Trump was simply more charismatic to those with a lower education due to his "simple" way of talking (to put it nicely) vs Hillary's stiff egg-shell style. Just another factor I'm throwing out there.
In any case my point is not to say race and identity politics played no factor, it clearly did as it always does. But to say it was the biggest factor, especially in the rust belt swing states of the US that gave Trump the win, is a much much bigger lift.
The Last Wizard
Member
Sarcasm dude
Because of the Democrats. The Dems moved left, the GOP stayed the same and absorbed racist voters who abandoned the Dems.
UnemployedVillain
Member
I think you're taking the wrong things away from this. They might have become slightly less racist vs 2012, but Democrats became significantly less so, which accounts for the large gap between the two groups of voters.
The Republicans moved left according to this time series.
I've always been of the mind, even heading into the election, that if you vote Trump you are at least somewhat racist. Even if it's towards other people of your own ethnicity ("I'm one of the good ones" syndrome). There's absolutely no way to ignore the bold faced racism he presented as his platform.
UnemployedVillain
Member
Eh, slightly so. None of the GOP scores are the lowest they've been, so they've basically become more/less racist, but haven't really changed attitudes over time while Dems are significantly lower than any other point in the observed history of those charts
It's true. If there's one thing Bernie is known for, it's his staunch advocacy for pragmatic compromise and giving way on principles in order to focus on policy wins.
Sexism played a huge part as well, for damn sure.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
There's a lot of motivating factors, some more integral than others, and almost all of them deplorable.
I think sexism's biggest contribution was the decades-long targeting of Hillary Clinton by the "family values" (aka women's natural inferiority) people which bled into her general unelectability.
I'm not entirely sure I agree with the WaPo here. I don't see anything in the data about racism being a large source of republican's voting for Trump.
The above graph, for instance, doesn't seem to support their argument, which is why I found it weird that they brought it up. What I seen in that graph is a slight decrease in racism indicators compared with 2012, putting it about on par with 2008. Nothing about that suggests there was any correlation between Trump's rhetoric causing people with even less favorable views of minorities than usual to vote.
What is quite striking, however is the huge drop off in between 2012 and 2016 in Democratic racism, which is very nice. Whether this has to do with changing viewpoints, Hillary's campaign, or the DNC's position is not known. I don't think we'll have an entirely clear idea until 2020 when we have more data.
I am going to go beyond the realm of this data for a bit, so it should be known that this is pure speculation on my part. What is possible is that more people who had similar views on race as the generic republican voted in this election. Indeed, the stark drop off of Clinton supporters negative views on race relations could be those in the higher percentile dropping off and going to Trump's campaign. This could be the cause of his victory without moving the average too much.
I honestly can't think of an excellent way to test this, since that is talking about raw numbers rather than percentages. Perhaps a survey of voters specifically who switched from D -> R in the past election, and their view on race relation. If we were to find a score above the Democratic average, I think that would confirm that Trump's racial rhetoric along with Hillary's more inclusive campaign, were a reason why Trump won.
In all honesty, if that is the case, I think that the democratic party can do without them. I don't need to agree with my average democratic voter on everything, bur respect for their fellow human is something I can not and will not compromise on. Racial relations are arguably the most important issue in America, and has been our entire history. The way we as a country view and treat minorities affects the country as a whole, from our support of social programs and better health care, to our willingness to go to war against people who we do not know and have never met. It is something that the democratic party needs to fight daily, and if that scares off people, so be it. I'm sure the DNC will find numbers elsewhere.
Edit: To be clear, I do think racism played a part in Trump's win. Indeed other studies found an increase in racism causing a shift to Trump. While I had a slight problem with a number of studies methodology, I do think the sheer volume of them seems to indicate racial views played a significant part of this election. I just do not think that this data is supportive of the argument.
The above graph, for instance, doesn't seem to support their argument, which is why I found it weird that they brought it up. What I seen in that graph is a slight decrease in racism indicators compared with 2012, putting it about on par with 2008. Nothing about that suggests there was any correlation between Trump's rhetoric causing people with even less favorable views of minorities than usual to vote.
What is quite striking, however is the huge drop off in between 2012 and 2016 in Democratic racism, which is very nice. Whether this has to do with changing viewpoints, Hillary's campaign, or the DNC's position is not known. I don't think we'll have an entirely clear idea until 2020 when we have more data.
I am going to go beyond the realm of this data for a bit, so it should be known that this is pure speculation on my part. What is possible is that more people who had similar views on race as the generic republican voted in this election. Indeed, the stark drop off of Clinton supporters negative views on race relations could be those in the higher percentile dropping off and going to Trump's campaign. This could be the cause of his victory without moving the average too much.
I honestly can't think of an excellent way to test this, since that is talking about raw numbers rather than percentages. Perhaps a survey of voters specifically who switched from D -> R in the past election, and their view on race relation. If we were to find a score above the Democratic average, I think that would confirm that Trump's racial rhetoric along with Hillary's more inclusive campaign, were a reason why Trump won.
In all honesty, if that is the case, I think that the democratic party can do without them. I don't need to agree with my average democratic voter on everything, bur respect for their fellow human is something I can not and will not compromise on. Racial relations are arguably the most important issue in America, and has been our entire history. The way we as a country view and treat minorities affects the country as a whole, from our support of social programs and better health care, to our willingness to go to war against people who we do not know and have never met. It is something that the democratic party needs to fight daily, and if that scares off people, so be it. I'm sure the DNC will find numbers elsewhere.
Edit: To be clear, I do think racism played a part in Trump's win. Indeed other studies found an increase in racism causing a shift to Trump. While I had a slight problem with a number of studies methodology, I do think the sheer volume of them seems to indicate racial views played a significant part of this election. I just do not think that this data is supportive of the argument.
Then we cannot conclude that racism is responsible for Trump's victory from these data.
UnemployedVillain
Member
The above graph isn't suppose to support that argument. The graph shows the attitudes of those who voted Trump. Did you guys just not read the last paragraph?
That's why he did a regression analysis
Wait. I must be missing where people are arguing that racism is soley responsible for a trump victory?
It's a significant factor.
Arkage
Banned
I was referencing the study the other guy linked me that showed people who switched from Obama to Trump did so due to problems they have with "diversity." Though that study never explicitly defined their use of that word, or how the questions were framed. Assuming it's true though, it shows that some contingent of middle America viewed Trump's anti-diversity an appealing factor in contrast to Clinton's pro-diversity, despite that person voting for Obama previously.
Being actively anti-diversity after electing a black President to his second term isn't rational, unless messaging is getting severely screw up in between those time periods. And that's why a lot of liberals blame Hillary, or extremists on the left, for the Trump situation more than they blame "racist Trump voters."
DontBeThatGuy
Member
That's why it's called "racism" and not "totally rational dislike of other races rooted in logical thought processes"
Zantetsuken
Member
And water is wet. Racists will cut off their nose to spite their face and will vote with skin color in mind first every time.
Why don't they blame themselves for not sucking it up and making sure Trump didn't become our President by showing up at the polls?
A lot of slavemasters fucked their slaves
Arkage
Banned
Because people's attitudes and beliefs don't change or evolve, and they were just as racist while voting for Obama as they were while voting for Trump? Are we really immutable robots with our beliefs set in stone by age 18? That certainly hasn't been the case for me.
Comparing a powerless sex slave to the most powerful office in mankind is equatable... how?
It's closer to 25-30.
Racists are illogical even when using their own rules.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
4-8 years is longer than you think. You need to take a look at what was happening post re-election, what could make certain folks choose a side, dig in their heels, or become resentful bastards. It's a lot of major shit. (and again, it's not SOLELY race related, but it's a huge component)
Since we're on a video game forum, how about exhibit A: JonTron. 2-time Obama voter. The why is easy to figure out.
Please read the other source material on the topic: https://www.thenation.com/article/fear-of-diversity-made-people-more-likely-to-vote-trump/
teruterubozu
Member
"they're stealing our jerbs!!"" seems to be the most powerful political rhetoric these days.
I'm not against the article - there's an ideological cleavage demonstrated by racial attitude questions. It's an enduring trend, but the implication in this thread is that 2016 was different from other elections. But that's really not what can be read from those graphs - the title might as well be "membership in the Republican party motivated Trump voters."
Probably if they advocated for racial cleansing, but there's already a party that pander to that.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
It was a jumping off point for a looooooooong 4 years. (depending on where you reside, that is)
UnemployedVillain
Member
Dude, just read the end of the damn article. You seem to be focused on a graph not stating what it never intended to.
It's the reason people want to claim the truth is "unknowable"- because they don't want to face reality.
"We voted you in twice, how dare you say that we're racist"
I'd just like to see democrats focusing on the right issues in order to win the next election.
Angelus Errare
Banned
We do. The problem is that if you talk about the economy 10 times and racism one, that racist ass white voter thinks its as 10:10000 ratio, not a 10:1 ratio.
Hence why we write these voters off and focus on other gettable votes, because people aren't going to just stop talking about it even though you want them to.
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