'Grand Theft Auto' Seen Breaking Games Sales Record
Mon Oct 25, 2004 01:58 PM ET
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - When the violent video game "Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas" hits stores on Tuesday, its sales could eclipse Hollywood's most successful films, even as it draws the ire of critics.
Developed by Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) imprint Rockstar Games, "San Andreas" should sell more than 4.5 million units globally in its first week, which could make it one of the top sellers of all time, analysts say.
"This will be one of the few video games to sell more copies than the preceding version," said American Technology Research analyst P.J. McNealy, noting that the game's predecessor "Grand Theft Auto: Vice City" sold 12 million copies. "The expectations are 13-15 million for this one," he added.
At about $50 each, first-week sales of 4.5 million units would equal about $225 million. Should it reach 15 million units, sales of "San Andreas" would beat U.S. and Canada box office sales of the film "Titanic" by more than $100 million.
Its debut kicks off a season of blockbusters in the global interactive game publishing market, which at over $30 billion a year, dwarfs the movie business.
"San Andreas," exclusive to Sony Corp.'s (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) PlayStation 2 console, will be followed on Nov. 9 by "Halo 2," made by Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) for its Xbox. Nintendo Co. Ltd. (7974.OS: Quote, Profile, Research) , maker of the GameCube, will have "Metroid Prime 2."
Microsoft said more than 1.5 million copies of "Halo 2" have already been pre-ordered.
VIDEO GAME VIOLENCE
"Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas's" plot revolves around a gangster returning to a city modeled after Los Angeles, to find his mother has been murdered and the police have blamed him for another killing. What follows is up to 150 hours of story-driven "gameplay" in which users can steal vehicles, maneuver out-of-control car chases, and shoot opponents.
"It is very violent (and includes) shooting cops," said Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter. "People like being the bad guy. This is a way of acting out a stupid fantasy."
Pachter adds that Microsoft's "Halo 2" is "every bit as violent, but the things that you are shooting don't look like people. They look like space suit guys."
Analysts expect "San Andreas" to stir up similar criticism to "Grand Theft Auto: Vice City," released in 2002, which was condemned by family values watchdog groups and Connecticut's U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, an advocate of restrictions on violent games.
"Vice City" sales soared as game enthusiasts shrugged off the protests.
Like "Vice City," "San Andreas" carries an "M," or Mature, rating. According to the Entertainment Software Rating Board, M-rated games feature intense violence, contain sexual themes and strong language, and is suitable for persons over 17.
This time, the game will again benefit specialty stores Electronics Boutique Holdings Corp.(ELBO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , and GameStop Corp.(GME.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , as well as larger retail chains such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , which monitors the content of the products it sells.
"If you are Wal-Mart you aren't going to miss out on selling one of the biggest titles of the year," said analyst American Technology's McNealy.
A spokesman for Wal-Mart was not available for comment.
Fueled by anticipation for "San Andreas," Take-Two shares have been strong this year. But they slipped 97 cents, or about 3 percent, to $31.58 on Monday after Banc of America Securities cut its rating to "neutral" from "buy," citing a lack of other hit titles in its pipeline.
"Beyond GTA, there remain no other blockbuster releases in Take-Two's lineup," said analyst Gary Cooper in a note to clients. "We have only moderate expectations for Rockstar's releases after San Andreas (such as "Midnight Club 3" and "The Warriors")."
