Analysts forcast 2.5 million Vitas, 7 million software units by March 2012

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works for Gamestop (lol)
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While Sony has yet to make public how many PlayStation Vita systems it plans on selling this year, SMBC Nikko Securities analyst Kazuharu Miura shared some forecasts today. A report at Bloomberg Japan, cites Miura as forecasting sales of 2.5 million units for the system by the end of the current fiscal year in March 2012. He also expects software sales of 7 million units.

Vita will be launching this year in Japan and early next year in Europe and North America. Final details on the Japanese launch are expected at September's Tokyo Game Show.

In making his target predictions, Miura noted that the numbers could fluctuate depending on Sony's ability to get interesting software out. In the same Bloomberg report, Ace Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda expressed concern about this particular area, saying that the higher resolution of the system causes troubles for developers as it eats up development time. Yauda also warned that it's difficult for software companies to develop software for the system if they're unsure the hardware itself will sell.

Sony has admitted that it will take a loss on each Vita sold. Miura expects this loss to be about ¥5,000 per system at first, falling to ¥2,500 per system in the fiscal year ending March 2013. In that year, Miura expects the system to sell 8.5 million units hardware and 28 million units software.
 
This seems somewhat hopeful. I don't know if I'm interested in it yet. We'll see how it goes.

Truth101 said:
5000 yen loss per system?

Seems a bit much
Click to expand...
5,000.00 JPY = USD 65
 
So that's like double where the 3DS is now through the holiday season.

It's also something like a 300 million dollar loss on hardware by 2013.
 
That loss is way steeper than what the wording of Sony's previous statement suggested, and they will be sustaining them until the end of 2013's fiscal year. I guess Kaz was right about the hardware taking three years to be profitable. But we still have other statements where they say "the whole business operation" will either break-even (or take a small hit) early on trough other means, so this probably doesn't bode well for accessory prices.

On a slightly more positive note, I hope that's a good sign that they'll produce enough units for the launch period.
 
Jinfash said:
That loss is way steeper than what the wording of Sony's previous statement suggested, and they will be sustaining them unti the end of 2013's fiscal year. I guess Kaz was right about the hardware taking three years to be profitable. But we still have other statements where they say the "whole business operation" will either break-even or take a small hit early on trough other means, so this doesn't bode well for accessory prices.

On a slightly more positive note, I hope that's a good sign that they'll produce enough units around launch.
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Let's just remember this is an analyst making an educated guess, not actual confirmed numbers.
 
hosannainexcelsis said:
Let's just remember this is an analyst making an educated guess, not actual confirmed numbers.
Click to expand...
Well that's obvious, but it's been a slow week for news, especially Vita's, so I'll take an educated guess over nothing. [random smiley]
 
Too lazy to even copy and paste, but you can look here and here for the PSP initial performance at the same time frame.

I assume this analyst is talking only about the performance in Japan.
 
$65 loss is larger than previously expected but not totally unsurprising either considering the quality of the components. If Sony can break even on the entire "Vita" end of business in the first year though that would certainly bode well for the future. And yeah, those memory card expansion prices may be killer.

Anyone know if it was a similar situation with the PSP all those years ago? Seems like the PSP was pretty strong hardware for a handheld in its day. It could not have been cheap to manufacture.
 
Road said:
Too lazy to even copy and paste, but you can look here and here for the PSP initial performance at the same time frame.

I assume this analyst is talking only about the performance in Japan.
Click to expand...
So less hardware but significantly more software estimates for the Vita. Interesting, but I'm not sure why the software prediction is that high. Maybe the launch line up is very impressive?
 
Those numbers seem extremely optimistic for a $250 hand held. It has the makings of a great system but a lot hand held gamers are notoriously cheap, especially parents with many kids. Right now people balk at $40 3ds games, here's hoping they can keep the price competitive and not go to $50. Young adults and teenagers I see no problem with, but that hasn't helped the original PSP in any regard.
 
Sony could learn a couple of things from Nintendo in terms of gross margins. But, you can see why Nintendo can afford a price drop and why Sony is already eating the cost of their system.

Ive always thought from the original GB to the 3DS, they looked like plastic toys, and never worth their MSRP. Sony really does make some quality stuff, but the days when people were willing to pay premium for the Sony name is over.
 
I think the Vita will be a huge success in Japan

In America however, probably not so much.

We're still not sure what kind of titles we're getting at launch in either country right now either. :/
 
InsaneZero said:
Nintendo has a pool of cash that they're sitting on.

Sony has pretty much wiped out any profit they made with their video game endeavours with the PS3.
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3DS is doing poorly, and if Wii U flops, there won't be a pool of cash.

Sony sells at a loss to push ventures elsewhere. Sell PS3 at a loss, make money back on BD movies, etc.
 
AgentChris said:
Sony's whole strategy with taking losses on hardware is dumb. Sony needs to make money more than anything right now.
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Even in the long term? What if it meant that they had to reduce features and graphical power? Isn't the point of PSVita to provide a handheld experience that currently isn't on the market? What if Sony doesn't care that they are losing money on this because they know that they are getting it from another source?

I think that they have access to consultants that planned this strategy because it's projected to have a reasonable success/risk ratio. I think that they are implementing it not because it is dumb, but actually because in consideration of their product, it's actually smarter than selling PSVitas for more than $250. It'd be dumb for Sony to charge like $350 for the PSVita to make profit in the short term and then have to cut the price by a hundred bucks.
 
JWong said:
3DS is doing poorly, and if Wii U flops, there won't be a pool of cash.

Sony sells at a loss to push ventures elsewhere. Sell PS3 at a loss, make money back on BD movies, etc.
Click to expand...
You think two flops is enough to wipe out $13.7 billion? Absolutely impossible. No company that has survived as long as Nintendo has could lose all of that money in a couple of years. If Nintendo manages to lose their money that fast, they deserve to collapse.
 
we.are.the.armada said:
Even in the long term? What if it meant that they had to reduce features and graphical power? Isn't the point of PSVita to provide a handheld experience that currently isn't on the market? What if Sony doesn't care that they are losing money on this because they know that they are getting it from another source?

I think that they have access to consultants that planned this strategy because it's projected to have a reasonable success/risk ratio. I think that they are implementing it not because it is dumb, but actually because in consideration of their product, it's actually smarter than selling PSVitas for more than $250. It'd be dumb for Sony to charge like $350 for the PSVita to make profit in the short term and then have to cut the price by a hundred bucks.
Click to expand...

That's the problem. They don't have a cash cow anymore.
 
InsaneZero said:
Nintendo has a pool of cash that they're sitting on.

Sony has pretty much wiped out any profit they made with their video game endeavours with the PS3.
Click to expand...

How much profit do they have left over in the old bank?
 
InsaneZero said:
Sony has pretty much wiped out any profit they made with their video game endeavours with the PS3.
Click to expand...
They chose to do that to push Blu-Ray, and Sony is not a gaming only company like Nintendo, so they can take some risks.
 
JWong said:
3DS is doing poorly, and if Wii U flops, there won't be a pool of cash.

Sony sells at a loss to push ventures elsewhere. Sell PS3 at a loss, make money back on BD movies, etc.
Click to expand...

Every post of yours I've seen has made me laugh. No company waits until they've drained through billions before pulling the plug on a failed product, and the 3DS hasn't even failed yet
 
JWong said:
3DS is doing poorly, and if Wii U flops, there won't be a pool of cash.

Sony sells at a loss to push ventures elsewhere. Sell PS3 at a loss, make money back on BD movies, etc.
Click to expand...

That worked out amazingly well for them.
 
we.are.the.armada said:
Even in the long term? What if it meant that they had to reduce features and graphical power? Isn't the point of PSVita to provide a handheld experience that currently isn't on the market? What if Sony doesn't care that they are losing money on this because they know that they are getting it from another source?

I think that they have access to consultants that planned this strategy because it's projected to have a reasonable success/risk ratio. I think that they are implementing it not because it is dumb, but actually because in consideration of their product, it's actually smarter than selling PSVitas for more than $250. It'd be dumb for Sony to charge like $350 for the PSVita to make profit in the short term and then have to cut the price by a hundred bucks.
Click to expand...
I'm just referring to Sony as a whole. I know they do this with all the PlayStation hardware but they need to make a profit sometimes. They're losing money too often.
 
JWong said:
3DS is doing poorly, and if Wii U flops, there won't be a pool of cash.

Sony sells at a loss to push ventures elsewhere. Sell PS3 at a loss, make money back on BD movies, etc.
Click to expand...

BurntPork commited that first statement already...

The amount of money made from blu ray royalties is so small it's not even worth typing in a post, let alone mentioning it as part of a loss-leader strategy. In fact, the blu-ray drive was the biggest failure of the PS3 strategy in generaly, by far... with the Cell coming in at a distant second.

Well, it did get Blu-Ray to win the format war, so maybe it did.
Click to expand...

Apana was being sarcastic. Stump probably has figures (or somebody did, posted in a thread long ago) - the amount made from Blu Ray royalties was and is almost insignificant. Like <couple hundred million LTD insignificant, with royalties currently being much lower than when it launched.
 
JWong said:
3DS is doing poorly, and if Wii U flops, there won't be a pool of cash.

Sony sells at a loss to push ventures elsewhere. Sell PS3 at a loss, make money back on BD movies, etc.
Click to expand...
You're such a predictable character. I'm amazed you've lasted this long. *slow clap*
 
Ashes1396 said:
I can't think of him without thinking psp go.
Click to expand...

I guess that's better than what the internet has made me think of Kaz ("Five hundred and ninety nine US dollars" "Riiidddggeee Racer!") ...
 
Takao said:
I guess that's better than what the internet has made me think of Kaz ("Five hundred and ninety nine US dollars" "Riiidddggeee Racer!") ...
Click to expand...
ridgeracer.gif
 
BurntPork said:
You think two flops is enough to wipe out $13.7 billion? Absolutely impossible. No company that has survived as long as Nintendo has could lose all of that money in a couple of years. If Nintendo manages to lose their money that fast, they deserve to collapse.
Click to expand...

i don't want to get OT but where exactly did you get the exact amount of many nintendo has in its treasure chests?

i'd need it for a quote :D


anyway i hope sony does well, we need to stop this iOS.gaming.is.killing.the.industry no sense :D

do we have any words about possible launch lineup anyway?
 
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