Analysts forcast 2.5 million Vitas, 7 million software units by March 2012
- Thread starter Wario64
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nickcv said:i don't want to get OT but where exactly did you get the exact amount of many nintendo has in its treasure chests?
i'd need it for a quote
anyway i hope sony does well, we need to stop this iOS.gaming.is.killing.the.industry no sense
do we have any words about possible launch lineup anyway?
It came from this absolutely stupid and poorly-researched hyperbole piece from Bloomberg the other day.
And while iOS may not be killing gaming (at least not yet) the devaluation and "dumping" of excessive low-value games is part of what caused the videogame industry crash in the 80s. "Why buy a $50 game on Vita when you can get free games on your ipad?"
Meisadragon said:
Because it's, in general, true. It's not quite a linear relationship, but the better the visuals for your content the more money it's going to cost (without cutting said content). Charlequin can explain this better than I. But basically, the better the visuals and the higher the scope of a project, the higher the cost to make the game (part of the reason why the HD generation brought a $10 increase and a ton of studios struggling/closing with what sales that were previously considered decent).
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AgentChris said:
It's a decent gamble if they have other areas that are profitable.
Losses + tax consolidation + carrying forward = Profitable areas minimize tax bill for several years.
Auto_aim1
MeisaMcCaffrey
Yeah, but he was saying development time. I know the cost will be slightly higher, but unlike the PSP, the Vita is easier to develop for, and working around hardware deficiency is what usually increases development time, which shouldn't be a big factor here. Even the porting process should be lightning quick. I don't disagree with him entirely though, but the development time should be on par with the PSP.StevieP said:
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StevieP said:
I prefer not to comment on financials specific to Sony, but I will say their global strategy is sound.
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Krev said:
Financial results viewed independently from a corporation's supply-chain model are often very misleading.
This strategy has worked for Sony in the past and there is no reason to believe it cannot work again. You have to remember that not only was the PS3 being sold at a greater lose than the PSVita is, but the PS3 went way over budget. If I recall correctly Howard Stringer wasn't even informed it went over budget until it was too late.
There are many other factors to consider. For one, Sony's first-party is at its best; it is much larger and well known than it has ever been for a new system in the past. There should also be a wider range of accessories than there has been on the PS3. PSN is also more established and making Sony more money.
They should also turn a quicker profit on some of these early games, considering most of them are using assets from PS3 games. There is just too many factors to consider just to outright say this strategy is dumb, only results in failure or whatever it is.
There are many other factors to consider. For one, Sony's first-party is at its best; it is much larger and well known than it has ever been for a new system in the past. There should also be a wider range of accessories than there has been on the PS3. PSN is also more established and making Sony more money.
They should also turn a quicker profit on some of these early games, considering most of them are using assets from PS3 games. There is just too many factors to consider just to outright say this strategy is dumb, only results in failure or whatever it is.
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I wonder how much profit the people who are crapping on Sony for selling the Vita at a loss, think Nintendo is making on the 3DS at $170.
And MS's gaming division hasn't been profitable since its existence. You think Sir William of Gates is losing much sleep over that?
And MS's gaming division hasn't been profitable since its existence. You think Sir William of Gates is losing much sleep over that?
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Somnid said:
A decent achievement if they can pull it off (and I hope they do, just to "shhhhhhhh" the iOS crowd).
InsaneZero
Member
That process isn't so much of selling the product at massive quantities as it is reducing the cost of the product by improving the production process.Para bailar La Bomba said:
Same thing with what analysts are predicting here for the Vita.
Considering it was reported that Vita is scheduled to miss the holiday season in the US and Europe I find the possibility of 2.5 million in hardware sales to be somewhat unrealistic, especially at that price (I'm not questioning the value, it is "worth" the price in terms of the technology, I still believe the price will be a barrier to adoption for many people).
I will say if the analyst is purely referring to sales to retail stores ("shipped" rather than sold) I could see that as possible.
I will say if the analyst is purely referring to sales to retail stores ("shipped" rather than sold) I could see that as possible.
Ridge racer always gets a smile out of me.phosphor112
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I'm 95% sure their "losses" were in regard to things like R&D and the whole marketing push, not the actual hardware itself. Because they are selling it at a near "break even point" it will take until 2013 for them to reach a point where they no longer "lose money."
Chris1964 said:
However, considering the Vita is not scheduled to launch outside of Japan until after the new year and considering the fiscal year ends in March, and that it would be relatively unusual to launch a major new product in the US and Europe in, say, mid January I think it is not unfair to presume that the bulk of sales being predicted must logically come from Japan if not all of them.
airmangataosenai
Member
Yeah, which is what makes this whole estimate so ridiculous. In Japan alone it might be able to get to 2 million by the end of the fiscal year. Even if they missed the Euro launch there's no way it's be lower than 2.5 million especially with how aggressive Sony is with shipments. 2.5 million would be a nightmare for them.Sho_Nuff82 said:
dgrdsv
Member
PSP was very easy to develop for. Vita may be somewhat easier due to it being more powerful and thus requiring less optimisation tricks but the difference shouldn't be big.Meisadragon said:
Actually, it may even be harder to develop for because it'll have a quad core CPU instead of just one core.
bigtroyjon
Member
Sony can only ship out what they make, I wonder if this analyst has insight into the manufacturing and has an idea of the the kind of output that will be available. Wouldn't surprise me if they go with the conservative route with the launch. A large write down like Nintendo would put the whole company in the red for a fourth consecutive year.
Empyrean Heaven
Member
Analysts predicting wild success for Sony, Nintendo is teh Doomed, news at 11.
Sony would be smart to initially undership the vita to help create the allure of demand for its shiny new hardware. I feel like Nintendo learned the wrong lesson from the wii launch when Iwata and company made sure there were an abundance of 3ds units available at launch. Pretty much nowhere sold out, so there was no sense of urgency. Plus a sellout, no matter how small the initial shipment is, always creates a headline and something for sony pr to brag about.bigtroyjon said:
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
I think it's a bit early to be making sweeping judgements about how much it's going to sell by March.
At least wait until we get a release date (for all we know, it could be coming out only at the very end of March. Then it would be impossible for it to sell 2 million units).
At least wait until we get a release date (for all we know, it could be coming out only at the very end of March. Then it would be impossible for it to sell 2 million units).
Phoenician_Viking
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Basically this. Analysts don´t know anything.antonz said:
Mr_Brit said:
Which is exactly what I said. I'm just suggesting that it won't be early to mid January for example because it's "too close" to the Holiday season, why give up Christmas when you're that close? So I'm suggesting it would likely be in February or March. So, since the Analyst's projection is 2.5 million units sold (which I think we agree means shipped to retailers) I think it is likely that, rather than say holding back 1.25 million units or more for the US and Europe sometime after January 1st (which I would think suggests late january at the EARLIEST but probably February or March) then in context my reply to Chris was meant to suggest that while Kazuharu Miura is indeed apparently talking about worldwide sales it is simply reasonable to guess the majority (and I would think the vast majority) would be likely to come from Japan.
Duckhuntdog
Member
Meisadragon said:
Yeah but that is from a basic technical/programming aspect. You still have art to make and everything that it entails: modeling, rigging, textures, etc. Which all increases. So while the software libraries makes working with the hardware easier, the content creation aspect increases and becomes more expensive.
Consider the average sales amount of a portable game, which in most cases are low, and you can see why many studios were able to make good money on the DS and lost tons on the PSP. So there are the same concerns with the Vita and 3DS.
I'm starting to think when I purchase a Vita i'll probably wait for the first major price drop.
Also, I don't think 2.5mil for FY2011 is too far out of the equation once you count all of the early adopters, assuming a worldwide launch does occur. There are always plenty of early adopters for the systems, and i'm very sure it will have average success for the first 1-2 months. What happens after that however, is anyone's guess, especially with the lull of summer just looming around the corner after its launch.
It's essentially going to be out in the same timeframe the 3DS was (in NA anyways), so I think it will be interesting to see how everything works out in the end.
Also, I don't think 2.5mil for FY2011 is too far out of the equation once you count all of the early adopters, assuming a worldwide launch does occur. There are always plenty of early adopters for the systems, and i'm very sure it will have average success for the first 1-2 months. What happens after that however, is anyone's guess, especially with the lull of summer just looming around the corner after its launch.
It's essentially going to be out in the same timeframe the 3DS was (in NA anyways), so I think it will be interesting to see how everything works out in the end.
frankie_baby
Member
Could they ship that much, probably
Will they sell that much, hell no
Will they sell that much, hell no
RPG_Fanatic
Member
So they are basically expecting every vita owner to purchase at least 3 games. That seems a little unlikely.
ItAintEasyBeinCheesy
it's 4th of July in my asshole
Well it should be illegal to own the Vita and not have Hot Shots at least.
AdventureRacing
Member
It feels like they are going to be giving the 3DS a big head start. If they have only sold 2.5 million at the end of the fiscal year they are going to be a long way behind.
Also expecting to sell only 8.5 million pieces of HW for the next full fiscal year seems pretty bad to me. Again that that would i can't help but feel as though that is going to be a long way behind the 3DS.
Also expecting to sell only 8.5 million pieces of HW for the next full fiscal year seems pretty bad to me. Again that that would i can't help but feel as though that is going to be a long way behind the 3DS.
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
StevieP said:
wow I never knew that, if that's the case why were Toshiba and Sony so desperate to when the HD format war if there was hardly no money to be made in it?